Author Topic: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion  (Read 26163 times)

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Online Slateman

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #200: November 20, 2023, 10:44:43 PM »
Hader is a primadonna choke artist

Offline USF_Football

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #201: November 21, 2023, 04:35:47 AM »
With a couple exceptions, I want to pass on most of them.

I dont see this team truly competing until 2025. Wood, House, and Morales are nowhere near ready (of they ever will be). Still dont know of Gore and Gray can be good enough. Giant question marks across the diamond.

Who are we going to sign now that will be worth that money in 2025 and 2026?

Ohtani - 30 and on his second tommy john. You're paying 500+ million for, maybe, 3 years of decent pitching and a DH. Is he the best DH? Yes. Is he 300 million better than Yordan Alvarez? Nope

Yamamoto - Yes. I give him Gerrit Cole's deal and not even think twice. He's literally the only big free agent I'd be excited about

Snell - 31 with a huge walk problem, which basically makes him a 5 inning guy. You really want to give him 200 million?

Bellinger - Okay, 28. How much stock do you put into this season over the previous three? 200 million dollar gamble.

Montgomery- 31 and totally reliant on location and weak contact. Wont take much of a drop off for him to be a back of the rotation guy.

Chapman - 31 and hasnt posted an OPS over .800 since 2020. Dont really want to get locked up when we have two potential starters at 3B in the next three years.

Gray - 34. You will get, maybe, two good years. And you'll pay for four or five.

JD Martinez - 36 and can still hit. But Im betting he wants to go somewhere to compete. Rizzo will sign him to a one year deal in 2026 and then act surprised when he posts a .678 OPS.

E-Rod - 31 and dude is a head case. Hard freaking pass.

Shōta Imanaga - 30 and 5'10". Like .... I dont see him doing well in MLB

Stroman - 33. Back to back seasons with injury issues. Not a great sign for a 5'7" pitcher with middling stuff.

Hoskins - Probably the only short term candidate. I'd take him, but he's not going to be here when the Nats are competitive.

Candelario - 30 and fell off a cliff after the deadline. And we have viable candidates within a couple seasons. Dont really feel like getting locked up for four or five years.

Everyone else is kind if filler at that point. I'd be interested in Yamamoto and Jung-Hoo Lee, but Rizzo seems allergic to the Asian market.

Which one of these guys are we not talking about like we talked about Werth in 2015?

Hard to disagree with anything you stated in the post. I'm all in on Yamamoto. His K/9 will play even better with the undisciplined hitters he will face in MLB - I'd put him at 10.5K/9 next year. The hitters in the NPB may not be power guys, however they do have good plate discipline.

The Nats won't get Yamamoto - however I would be all in if they signed Yamamoto to a long term deal and gave Trevor Bauer a two year, $12M deal to help "reshape" his image. Bauer was impressed by Yamamoto last year in the NPB after Bauer struggled early and IMO, Yamamoto would garner most of the press allowing Bauer to fly a bit under the radar in DC (although every Me Too sheep and man hating woman in DC would protest a Bauer signing without knowing the full backstory).

Hoskins would be a nice piece to pick up and potentially build around in the short term. Bellinger is going to cost too much money - and something happened to him in LA for the Dodgers to give up on Belly. I would stay far away from him.

Rumor has it Glasnow is on the market. That would be the one piece other than Yamamoto that would be worth investing in presently - I would sell the farm to Tampa for Glasnow (especially if we could lock him up). We're not built for right now - however fans can be patient with what is developing in the Minors coupled with one big signing to wet our appetites.

Corbin Burnes will be a FA in 2025. Imagine Yamamoto and Burnes at the top of the rotation in 2025. That would take a lot of pressure off of Gray and Gore to pitch above their heads game in and game out.   

Here's hoping our MIL talent pans out over the next few years or we're going to be looking up at the Braves and Phillies for a very long time...

Online Slateman

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #202: November 21, 2023, 07:48:18 AM »
Hard to disagree with anything you stated in the post. I'm all in on Yamamoto. His K/9 will play even better with the undisciplined hitters he will face in MLB - I'd put him at 10.5K/9 next year. The hitters in the NPB may not be power guys, however they do have good plate discipline.

The Nats won't get Yamamoto - however I would be all in if they signed Yamamoto to a long term deal and gave Trevor Bauer a two year, $12M deal to help "reshape" his image. Bauer was impressed by Yamamoto last year in the NPB after Bauer struggled early and IMO, Yamamoto would garner most of the press allowing Bauer to fly a bit under the radar in DC (although every Me Too sheep and man hating woman in DC would protest a Bauer signing without knowing the full backstory).

Hoskins would be a nice piece to pick up and potentially build around in the short term. Bellinger is going to cost too much money - and something happened to him in LA for the Dodgers to give up on Belly. I would stay far away from him.

Rumor has it Glasnow is on the market. That would be the one piece other than Yamamoto that would be worth investing in presently - I would sell the farm to Tampa for Glasnow (especially if we could lock him up). We're not built for right now - however fans can be patient with what is developing in the Minors coupled with one big signing to wet our appetites.

Corbin Burnes will be a FA in 2025. Imagine Yamamoto and Burnes at the top of the rotation in 2025. That would take a lot of pressure off of Gray and Gore to pitch above their heads game in and game out.   

Here's hoping our MIL talent pans out over the next few years or we're going to be looking up at the Braves and Phillies for a very long time...

Don't think Bauer is even an option for Rizzo at this point. Also, I don't put a lot of stock in Bauer's numbers. He was playing in a non-DH league that is also have pitcher friendly parks.

Glasnow has one year left before free agency. Not trading for anything that isn't a long term piece.

Online imref

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #203: November 21, 2023, 09:36:47 AM »
MLB's "one free agent for every team"

Quote
Washington Nationals: Harrison Bader, CF
Alex Call struggled at the plate (.614 OPS) in 2023, and the Nationals declined their option on Victor Robles (who remains under club control), so the Nationals could be in the market for a new center fielder this winter. Bader could seek a one-year deal to reestablish his value after an unproductive and injury-riddled season.

https://www.mlb.com/news/free-agent-fit-for-every-mlb-team-2023

Online Mattionals

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #204: November 21, 2023, 10:30:43 AM »
MLB's "one free agent for every team"

https://www.mlb.com/news/free-agent-fit-for-every-mlb-team-2023
MLB.com and ESPN have some terrible "writers". It's kinda hilarious that the "writer" looked up Call's numbers and said "The Nats need to replace a guy with a .614 OPS with a guy who *checks notes* had a .622 OPS!"

Online imref

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #205: November 21, 2023, 11:57:10 AM »
MLB.com and ESPN have some terrible "writers". It's kinda hilarious that the "writer" looked up Call's numbers and said "The Nats need to replace a guy with a .614 OPS with a guy who *checks notes* had a .622 OPS!"

Jacob Young was even better: .252 / .322 / .658 last year. Bader was really good until 2021 but has been in decline since then, Crazy that the Yankees traded Jordan Montgomery for him.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #206: November 21, 2023, 12:00:44 PM »
MLB's "one free agent for every team"

https://www.mlb.com/news/free-agent-fit-for-every-mlb-team-2023


That's a nice way of saying the tank is still on and ownership is cheap

Online Slateman

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #207: November 21, 2023, 12:58:19 PM »

That's a nice way of saying the tank is still on and ownership is cheap
Its also a great way of saying you have no idea what the status if the franchise is. Only reason to get a
Bader would be to hope for a huge rebound and flip him. But we have two versions of him in Robles and Young, both of which are cheaper.

Online Mattionals

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #208: November 21, 2023, 05:13:14 PM »
Its also a great way of saying you have no idea what the status if the franchise is. Only reason to get a
Bader would be to hope for a huge rebound and flip him. But we have two versions of him in Robles and Young, both of which are cheaper.
I only trust only grizzled reporters who left the beat to have any real "insight" into what the Nats are doing.
My opinion is that the Lerner family is still trying to figure out how to sell the Nationals for the amount they want to get, and Ted Leonsis hasn't buckled to that number yet. That being said, current ownership will unlikely spend significantly to improve the team in the near term.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #209: November 21, 2023, 05:27:32 PM »
little thing to keep in mind is 3 big bullpen pieces- Finnegan, Harvey, and Rainey - are FAs next year. Got to hope Robert "Hunter Jerry" Garcia is the real deal, that Weems improves, and that we have some more pieces out of Rutledge, Henry, maybe Cronin and a few of the others like Brzykcy pan out.

edit - If FG is right, they all are FAs in 2026. Somehow I had their service time wrong

Online Slateman

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #210: November 21, 2023, 05:30:08 PM »
little thing to keep in mind is 3 big bullpen pieces- Finnegan, Harvey, and Rainey - are FAs next year. Got to hope Robert "Hunter Jerry" Garcia is the real deal, that Weems improves, and that we have some more pieces out of Rutledge, Henry, maybe Cronin and a few of the others like Brzykcy pan out.
Spotrac has Harvey as under team control through the 2025 season

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #211: November 21, 2023, 05:36:50 PM »
Spotrac has Harvey as under team control through the 2025 season
that's weird. Actually, I thought all 3 had just a year and a half at the deadline last year. I may be wrong on all 3, which would be great. Just all have 4 or more service time.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #212: November 22, 2023, 12:40:14 PM »
127 days until opening day in Cincinnati.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #213: November 22, 2023, 03:40:51 PM »
Cammerato drops 3 potential free agent names and gives a little profile - Tellez, Senzel, and Vogelbach.
https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/free-agent-candidates-for-nationals

Her thinking is that between 3rd and 1B/ DH, there's room for one signing, either to pair with Meneses or to compete with Kieboom / Alu / Vargas.

Online Slateman

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #214: November 22, 2023, 04:40:39 PM »
Senzel intrigues me. He was a top 10 prospect. He can also play the outfield. Part of me wonders if a change scenery would help him

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #215: November 22, 2023, 04:49:54 PM »
Cammerato drops 3 potential free agent names and gives a little profile - Tellez, Senzel, and Vogelbach.
https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/free-agent-candidates-for-nationals

Her thinking is that between 3rd and 1B/ DH, there's room for one signing, either to pair with Meneses or to compete with Kieboom / Alu / Vargas.

All three appear to be bums and a waste of time.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #216: November 22, 2023, 05:19:33 PM »
All three appear to be bums and a waste of time.
Two of the three would eat all the food on the clubhouse.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #217: November 22, 2023, 05:20:41 PM »
Senzel intrigues me. He was a top 10 prospect. He can also play the outfield. Part of me wonders if a change scenery would help him
When I posted about Senzel last week you downplayed him.  Nice to see you coming around. Cheap guy for 3rd while waiting for House and can play OF. 

Offline blue911

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #218: November 22, 2023, 05:52:48 PM »
Senzel intrigues me. He was a top 10 prospect. He can also play the outfield. Part of me wonders if a change scenery would help him

Well it sure as hell won’t be the coaching if he comes here.

Online Slateman

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #219: November 22, 2023, 06:01:27 PM »
When I posted about Senzel last week you downplayed him.  Nice to see you coming around. Cheap guy for 3rd while waiting for House and can play OF. 
I mean ... he's basically Robles at this point. But maybe can play third. Not much to get excited about.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #220: November 22, 2023, 06:24:28 PM »
I was going to say one of these formerly highly regarded 1st rounders / prospects is bound to work out, but maybe we already had our hit with Harvey

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #221: November 22, 2023, 06:42:53 PM »
I mean ... he's basically Robles at this point. But maybe can play third. Not much to get excited about.
So intrigued. But not excited. Well ok.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #222: November 23, 2023, 08:27:12 AM »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/40-man-roster-deadline-reaction-and-analysis-national-league/

Words of praise (?)(!) from Longenhagen about the Nats 4 additions to the roster before the Rule 5 draft:

Quote
Washington added several exciting young relievers to their roster. The workload of oft-injured Cole Henry tapered off late during the season and his last several outings came in relief. I think it’s fair to project him as a pure reliever going forward. Zach Brzykcy (pronounced “brick-see”) was a power reliever at Virginia Tech and became one of the first 2020 undrafted free agents to emerge as a real prospect. He quickly went from sitting 94-95 mph out of the Hokies bullpen in his first 2020 appearance to sitting 96-98 and touching 99 in his last few just before the COVID shutdown. He didn’t pitch in 2023 because he was recovering from Tommy John. Mitchell Parker is a vertical slot lefty with a great curveball and below-average control. DJ Herz is a cross-firing lefty with below-average velocity and a plus changeup.

Interesting take on Brzykcy. At this point, I'd be good if Henry could be a reliever if he can do it with his best stuff. It'd be a plus if one of Herz or Parker ends up a starter, but if these 2 or 3 of these guys hit in the bullpen, that's nice going forward. Opens up deals down the stretch for the 30+ year olds.

Online Slateman

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #223: November 23, 2023, 09:02:07 AM »
I hope he can start, but I very much expect Henry to end up a reliever.

Online Slateman

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Re: 2023-24 Off-Season Discussion
« Reply #224: November 23, 2023, 12:28:22 PM »
Trade Irvin and Thomas for Alek Manoah

Sign Yepez, Senzel, and one of Suter/Stephenson/Bush and see what plays out