What happened to the Padres? Article from the Athletic

[UMDNats]

It was, but it was also something that wouldnt have been said by Zim, Werth, or even Harper.

Where there's smoke, there's fire. I have no doubt that Machado and Preller are the main culprits, and that losing Hosmer was a big part of this downturn. But Soto is apparently not part of the solution, despite putting up his typical production at the plate

Right. We're talking about a player who believes a $450 million offer was insulting. Right now Soto looks like a DH who can't be a presence in a clubhouse at all and is just there to play. That stuff matters if you want to win championships, and if your $500 million player is not a leader, it forces you to adjust how you build the team. If Soto was just a guy smashing at the dish and not out here demanding half a bill then whatever. If Soto is getting big dicked by Manny freaking Machado in the locker room, what does that say about Soto?

Also not sure anyone really considered Bryce a "cancer" but rather that the team gave him preferential treatment and generally he was always a story for whatever reason, which I can imagine would be annoying for the veterans who had to constantly answer questions about him. It was just more of an annoyance and focus on Bryce that went away in 2019, but I doubt anyone would have called him a Machado-level cancer.

[Natsinpwc]

LOL.  Soto going to be paid big time. Talent wins. 

[Natsinpwc]

I know it's sports, and I know that's what people do when its sports, but there sure is a hell of a lot of tea leaf reading and divining intent in short soundbites without much context past a three question interview after a game.

People will interpret to draw the conclusions they have already made.

[UMDNats]

LOL.  Soto going to be paid big time. Talent wins. 

Literally no one is disputing this. No one. You're not even reading. He's going to get a fat freaking contract. The question is what will a team get for that? A bunch of homers in blowouts and a ton of walks and no defense and a, "whatever, man, we just gotta play better" attitude in the clubhouse is fine and dandy until you make $500 million and a team needs just a little bit more. But at least he'll have the paycheck. It's literally one of the biggest issues that Ovechkin had with the Caps. He wasn't a native speaker, he deferred to other guys and generally was fine being quiet and perform as long as he could hang with his buddies. Once he realized he had to be the GUY both in voice and show the team took it to another level.

And like I said I'd take him back in a heartbeat but I wouldn't get in a bidding war. The previous offer we made is probably where I make my stand considering he's only performed worse since then.

[Natsinpwc]

Literally no one is disputing this. No one. You're not even reading. He's going to get a fat freaking contract. The question is what will a team get for that? A bunch of homers in blowouts and a ton of walks and no defense and a, "whatever, man, we just gotta play better" attitude in the clubhouse is fine and dandy until you make $500 million and a team needs just a little bit more. But at least he'll have the paycheck. It's literally one of the biggest issues that Ovechkin had with the Caps. He wasn't a native speaker, he deferred to other guys and generally was fine being quiet and perform as long as he could hang with his buddies. Once he realized he had to be the GUY both in voice and show the team took it to another level.

And like I said I'd take him back in a heartbeat but I wouldn't get in a bidding war. The previous offer we made is probably where I make my stand considering he's only performed worse since then.

As someone else said you are reading lots into one quote earlier this year. You are not in the Padres dugout or locker room so you really have no idea what goes on. There are not many Latin players who are vocal leaders because of the language barrier.

You are trying to find a flaw with him to say he is not a leader.  You said he was a glorified DH.  So I am reading.  Was that a compliment?  Sounds like you are saying he will not be worth the money. He’s still just a kid.  He has a good time playing the game. How old is Soto now and at what age did Ovechkin become a leader? Quite a gap there I believe.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

How old is Soto now and at what age did Ovechkin become a leader? Quite a gap there I believe.

Ovechkin was named captain of the Capitals when he was about 24/25, i.e. around Soto's age right now.

[Natsinpwc]

Ovechkin was named captain of the Capitals when he was about 24/25, i.e. around Soto's age right now.

Sure but UMD and others say he was not a leader at that time. I think the leadership thing is generally overrated anyway.  But I think Soto has time to show more that way. Also we have no idea is he is acting as a mentor to younger guys on the team. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Oh, and just a reminder, leadership schmeadership, the guy consistently puts more points on the board than just about anybody in baseball. As long as he leads in run production and isn't burying you too much on D, I'll pay for that kind of leadership. Soto really doesn't have to be the "leader" of the Padres. If a team with that much talent can't win and does a fold in every tight game, then maybe there's something with Hader et al... Or maybe there's something with buying O and not giving 2 bits about defense coming back to haunt.

[imref]

In reading this thread all I care about is the Padres playing poorly enough that the draft a top-level future SS next year.

[UMDNats]

As someone else said you are reading lots into one quote earlier this year. You are not in the Padres dugout or locker room so you really have no idea what goes on. There are not many Latin players who are vocal leaders because of the language barrier.

You are trying to find a flaw with him to say he is not a leader.  You said he was a glorified DH.  So I am reading.  Was that a compliment?  Sounds like you are saying he will not be worth the money. He’s still just a kid.  He has a good time playing the game. How old is Soto now and at what age did Ovechkin become a leader? Quite a gap there I believe.

He's a DH-only who doesn't appear to bring you anything in the clubhouse (not a negative, but not a guy who's leading the team). He's one of the best hitters in baseball but if he's racking up homers in 85-win seasons then what's the point? My point is that when you invest half a billion dollars into a player, you kind of hope he can be the tone setter in the clubhouse and deliver championships, and to do that so many things need to be right.

With Soto I think you need to realize he's (probably) never going to be a rah-rah guy or the silent leader and is more the "have fun and smash" guy and adjust accordingly. He was perfect in 2019 as a young player because that team was 90% bits and 10% proven veterans who set the tone and he could just be himself. Not every player is going to thrive running a clubhouse, and to *me*, that is a knock at his contract demands, but he'll still get paid big time and deserves it based on his production.

If the Nats were signing Soto long-term I'd make sure we always had veteran pitchers who can run that side of things and 1-2 veteran hitters who can handle running the clubhouse and let Soto just smash every day. I think the Padres wanted Soto to come in and be the GUY in the room and instead Machado has free reign it sounds like and the clubhouse sucks ass and the results speak for themselves. A good GM and good manager can overcome this easily but the Padres appear to be idiots. Two of their biggest investments are in Machado and Tatis, two certified morons.

I think clubhouse vibes are really crucial overall if you want to over-perform your expected every year. Davey is a whatever manager but the vibes around our team have always been rock solid and players clearly enjoy playing here. Everyone in San Diego looks miserable. That matters.

[UMDNats]

Ovechkin was named captain of the Capitals when he was about 24/25, i.e. around Soto's age right now.

And he was definitely not ready by then, he basically got it as a PR move. It wasn't until the 2017-18 seasons where you really felt he was working at it, which of course is when Trotz came into play.

[Slateman]

Oh, and just a reminder, leadership schmeadership, the guy consistently puts more points on the board than just about anybody in baseball. As long as he leads in run production and isn't burying you too much on D, I'll pay for that kind of leadership. Soto really doesn't have to be the "leader" of the Padres. If a team with that much talent can't win and does a fold in every tight game, then maybe there's something with Hader et al... Or maybe there's something with buying O and not giving 2 bits about defense coming back to haunt.

Kind of like Alex Rodriguez?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Kind of like Alex Rodriguez?

nice analogy, except Rodriguez could play defense.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

one other thing about Soto and clubhouse leadership - I think he's more comfortable with younger players looking to him, especially Dominican and other Latino internationals. IIRC, Garcia was one of the guys who looked to him. The Padres have established stars, and I think Soto may step back around them.

[UMDNats]

one other thing about Soto and clubhouse leadership - I think he's more comfortable with younger players looking to him, especially Dominican and other Latino internationals. IIRC, Garcia was one of the guys who looked to him. The Padres have established stars, and I think Soto may step back around them.

This is also true. I think Soto is a really, really smart hitter and IIRC he was definitely a teacher for those younger hitters. He came in and is not the personality to speak over Machado, Tatis or Boegarts.

Like I said, this all is part of the equation when you're giving a guy $500 million. The Nats should absolutely sign him, then sign/trade for a couple solid pitchers, and let Soto just teach every Dominican kid how to hit. The Padres freaked this up because they have no idea what they're doing. Soto looks miserable half the time. I think he really misses the Nats and the situation he had here and if he could go back he would take the contract IMO. I think the weight of everything is having an impact. 

[Natsinpwc]

Kind of like Alex Rodriguez?

Last time the Yankees won was with him.  Despite all that leadership they supposedly have had since then. 

Talent wins. Look at the Astros. A bigger bunch of dicks has probably never been assembled. Their leaders were cheaters.  Yet they keep winning.

No GM will factor in Soto’s alleged lack of leadership skills into any contract.  No matter what you guys say.

[Slateman]

nice analogy, except Rodriguez could play defense.

Right, but besides that, ARod was an offensive monster but was never thought of as a leader.

[welch]

A key point in Rosenthal's and Lin's article: Preller is a micromanager who inserted himself into everything. He has stepped on Bob Melvin often enough that players don't know whether to listen to Melvin or to Preller.

[welch]

And here is Rosenthal and Lin on the players:

The players

Around baseball, the Padres’ clubhouse is perceived to be a fractured mess, home to big salaries and bigger egos. But team members say the players coexist well.

“I thought the locker room was going to be a complete s—show,” said one player who joined the team this season. “That is not the case.”

“We get along together pretty good,” Soto said. “It’s not like people think.”

Yet, even when players are not squabbling, a team can lack offensive chemistry. The Padres, for all their potential at the plate, never saw their lineup click over long stretches. And leadership questions persist, as they often do with losing clubs.

To the suggestion the Padres have no leader, one team member said, “Or there’s four and they can’t figure out which one it’s supposed to be and therefore none of them are doing it, so it’s like, ‘Who’s the guy here?’”

The Padres’ “Big Four” all are at different stages of their careers. Manny Machado, originally signed in 2019, is in the first year of an 11-year, $350 million extension. Bogaerts, a free-agent addition, is in the first year of an 11-year, $280 million deal.

Tatis, in the third year of a 14-year, $340 million contract, is trying to restore his reputation coming off his suspension. And Soto, acquired in a trade at the 2022 deadline after he turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Washington Nationals, is eligible for free agency after next season.

Soto, 24, is the one performing the best on offense, but his uncertain future with the club has left him “guarded,” according to one teammate, and “trying to figure out where he’s at,” according to another member of the club. Tatis, 69 days younger than Soto, is in no position to take command, considering his age and the standing he lost with his suspension. Bogaerts, who turns 31 on Oct. 1, cannot be expected to own the room in his first year with a new organization.

Which leaves Machado, the oldest and most established of the group.

Machado, 31, is not a classic leader, some teammates say. He is too temperamental, inconsistent in his behavior — as opposed to, say, Adrián Beltré, a player whom Preller knew well from his time with the Texas Rangers. Beltré was a guidepost for his teammates, “cleaning up” whatever issues arose in the clubhouse.

Few such players exist in today’s game, and Machado serves as a positive example in his own way. Since 2015, he is second in the majors only to Paul Goldschmidt in games played.

“I personally think Manny is an exceptional leader,” one former Padre said. “He puts in the work every single day and plays through ticky-tack injuries and shows how important it is just to be on the field.”

“Ultimately, it’s my responsibility that I didn’t play (to the best of my abilities),” Machado told reporters Monday at Petco Park. “The real point of this is we didn’t play good baseball, I didn’t play good baseball and we let a lot of people down in the city.”

Whatever one’s view of Machado, the Padres surely were aware of his strengths and weaknesses as a leader when they awarded him his extension in February. Machado already had played four years with the club, through good times and bad. As was the case with Melvin, few complained about him in 2022, when the Padres came within three wins of reaching the World Series.

Leadership, some with the Padres say, would be much less of an issue if the Big Four had just performed to their career norms.

Their collective underachievement, however, does not fully explain the Padres’ offensive shortcomings. Some with the club believe that because the Padres are so star-laden, they do not play as a unit offensively, focusing more on individual performance than team-oriented goals. The description by one team member — “all superstars and no role players” — might be an oversimplification. But numerous statistics demonstrate the team’s lack of offensive chemistry:

RISP
BA: .240
OPS: .725
OPS Rank: 23rd

Close and late
BA: .195
OPS: .616
OPS Rank: 26th

Extra innings
.106
.486
29th

(All statistics through Sunday)

Situational baseball is not their strength.

“That’s what (good offense) is — go up there and try to put the ball in play, try to bring that guy in instead of hit 500-foot homers,” Soto said. “That’s what’s been lacking a little bit, just knowing the moment and the situation.”

“We’ve talked about it, addressed it. Everyone’s aware of it. We’re trying,” another player said. “For me it’s almost like, these guys don’t really know how to do it.”

I don't know the stats for the Nationals and how they would compare to the Padres, but I assume they would be lower. Of course, the Nats should look worse compared to a team of Big Stars.

[Natsinpwc]

Their expected win loss record based on run differential is 90-72.  Same as the Cubs and one game ahead of the Phillies. So they should have been a wild card team based on performance. Expect them to bounce back next season.

The Soto thing for them leads to uncertainty.  I would expect they try and make a deal to send him away this off-season. But probably won’t get as much as they want.

[UMDNats]

I think they have no choice but to run it back. The run differential is good. If Preller has a brain (he does not), he steps back and re-evaluates the organizational culture and makes that a priority. The roster talent is as good as you can get. They have committed massive resources to the current core. They should run it back next year with a fresh org mindset and see what happens. They will get pennies on the dollar for Soto and it's more valuable to just go for it and try to win it all next year. Easy to envision a scenario where a full year of Tatis and some better late-game luck/management takes them to the next level as the Braves finally get banged up, the Phillies are old, etc.

If they trade Soto they probably should just blow the entire team up really.

[welch]

And then there is the dollar question: how does a team in San Diego pay for all these salaries?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

And then there is the dollar question: how does a team in San Diego pay for all these salaries?

smuggling over the border.

[UMDNats]

And then there is the dollar question: how does a team in San Diego pay for all these salaries?

Every MLB owner could afford to spend $200+ million pretty easily.

[Natsinpwc]

They are over 3 million in attendance. Second overall and third by average. Not sure what their tv deal is.