Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Poking around a bit more, I think part of the reason prospect hounds might have missed on him is that he played the bulk of his minor league innings early in 2023 in the minors in left rather than center, so there was skepticism that he could hold down a corner OF position in the majors with a complete absence of power and not a super arm. There was this, which went up 6/6/23:

Young has a very compact swing and is making a ton of contact and stealing loads of bases right now, but he’s only playing defense in the corners and would have to be a very special contact hitter to profile there with so little power. He was Washington’s 2022 seventh rounder out of Florida.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-31-prospects-2023/

By this winter, he was being compared in terms of offense profile to Jake Fox, a player in the Cleveland system who was a 35/50 hit tool, 30/30raw power, 20/30 game power, and 60/60 run. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cleveland-guardian-top-42-prospects-2024/  Figure Young is showing the 50 hit and the 60 run at least now.

FWIW, ZiPS compared him to Rajai Davis. It looks like ZiPS mostly anticipated his BABIP to drop from .318 rather than rise this year, and placed him near Carter Kieboom in terms of expected contribution unadjusted for playing time. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-washington-nationals/

[Slateman]

Is there a point where Young would be good enough/valuable enough to start in CF, and trade one our OF prospects?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Is there a point where Young would be good enough/valuable enough to start in CF, and trade one our OF prospects?

wouldn't have thought this could be an issue as recently as spring training. He has a high babip,
.348, so might want to see if it settles around near .320. If it does, maybe his obp is closer to
340 than . 365. That's maybe not good enough. But it's close.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Is there a point where Young would be good enough/valuable enough to start in CF, and trade one our OF prospects?

Obviously we’re not trading Wood or Crews.  The next closest OF prospects to being ready are Hassell and Lile.  If those guys continue to develop between now and the 2025 trade deadline when we’re hopefully pushing for the postseason, I’d consider moving them for maybe top-end bullpen help controlled for 2-3 years.

[Slateman]

wouldn't have thought this could be an issue as recently as spring training. He has a high babip,
.348, so might want to see if it settles around near .320. If it does, maybe his obp is closer to
340 than . 365. That's maybe not good enough. But it's close.

Is .348 that high for a guy this fast? Lets say it drops to .325.  His OBP would be ~.340ish. With the steals making up for slugging, does that make one of Crews/Hassell/Wood expendable in a package for pitching?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

We will have a while to figure that out. Let's see if Hassell can make it a close question. I think he can end up better than Young. I kind of like having the potential of 4 pieces. There's always DH to get the 4th on the field.

Takes quality to get quality, but I think a likely above average MLB regular is worth more than a bullpen piece.

[welch]

Yes, Young is a qualified major leaguer. He does not hit home runs, but neither did Denard Span. Neither did Jim Busby, Lenny Green, or Del Unser, and neither did "The Gozzle-head", Mickey Rivers. Neither does Hassell, so far.

Still it was great to see Young in CF and Robles in RF last night. Rosario-Young-Robles made a fine OF. In a month or two, it will be great to have Thomas, Rosario, Young, and Robles (if last night was who he has become). And even better as Wood gets closer and closer to the majors. I get a little sick listening to all the blather saying that the bush league Baltimore Orioles have the greatest team ever assembled, the Baltimore can take star after star from the bench and from the minors to overcome any sort of injury or opposition.

By next year. I see the Nats getting better and deeper. No more scrambling for a sure-fire DFA like Gallo.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Is .348 that high for a guy this fast? Lets say it drops to .325.  His OBP would be ~.340ish. With the steals making up for slugging, does that make one of Crews/Hassell/Wood expendable in a package for pitching?

Hassell doesn’t have a huge difference maker ceiling, so if he’s extra OF depth, absolutely.  Wood and Crews are projected All Stars for years and years to come.  Pitchers are always an injury away (Strasburg) or just “lose it” (Corbin).  No more long/term mega contracts for pitchers, and no trading elite bats for them.

Do like the Braves.  Sign short-term vets at SP like Morton and Sale to supplement your homegrown SPs.  Lock up your bats with your long-term money.

Go with strength in numbers with SPs in your own system.  The more arms with potential to develop, the more Irvin and Parkers emerge.  Keep a steady pipeline of those guys. 

[Smithian]

Is there a point where Young would be good enough/valuable enough to start in CF, and trade one our OF prospects?

If I thought the Nationals were legit World Series contenders, maybe.

But James Wood is a top 10 prospect. After his early slump, you can make the argument that Dylan Crews is also a top 10 prospect.

The Nationals traded a generational hitter in his prime with team control and got back a single prospect on that level. CJ Abrams was a top 10 prospect. Hassell was high, but not top 10. Gore definitely was not, unless you really bet on his medicals, as the Nationals did.

You don't trade a top 10 prospect unless it is for a core piece. And I don't see that player out there right now, especially with expanded playoffs and everyone thinking they have a shot.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Yes, Young is a qualified major leaguer. He does not hit home runs, but neither did Denard Span. Neither did Jim Busby, Lenny Green, or Del Unser, and neither did "The Gozzle-head", Mickey Rivers. Neither does Hassell, so far.

Still it was great to see Young in CF and Robles in RF last night. Rosario-Young-Robles made a fine OF. In a month or two, it will be great to have Thomas, Rosario, Young, and Robles (if last night was who he has become). And even better as Wood gets closer and closer to the majors. I get a little sick listening to all the blather saying that the bush league Baltimore Orioles have the greatest team ever assembled, the Baltimore can take star after star from the bench and from the minors to overcome any sort of injury or opposition.

By next year. I see the Nats getting better and deeper. No more scrambling for a sure-fire DFA like Gallo.

the best-case guy he reminds me of is Brett Butler.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brett-butler/1001772/stats?position=OF

Butler was even better with a 1.24 career BB/K, while I think Young is more of .67 guy.  However, Young looks a lot like Butler's first 4 years as a fulltime player with Atlanta and Cleveland (1983-86). 1989 with giants is almost an exact match offensively, with Young better on D. Like I said, Brett Butler is the best case.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

The guy I would look to trade if he can start producing when he returns is Lane.  He doesn’t fit into the future.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The guy I would look to trade if he can start producing when he returns is Lane.  He doesn’t fit into the future.

that's a given. The only hesitancy would be the complete lack of righty power this year. Maybe Crews gets to the majors in August,  but Thomas would be a good platoon bat and 4th outfielder

[Slateman]

If I thought the Nationals were legit World Series contenders, maybe.

But James Wood is a top 10 prospect. After his early slump, you can make the argument that Dylan Crews is also a top 10 prospect.

The Nationals traded a generational hitter in his prime with team control and got back a single prospect on that level. CJ Abrams was a top 10 prospect. Hassell was high, but not top 10. Gore definitely was not, unless you really bet on his medicals, as the Nationals did.

You don't trade a top 10 prospect unless it is for a core piece. And I don't see that player out there right now, especially with expanded playoffs and everyone thinking they have a shot.

Gore was number 6 overall.

Im not talking about moving them for a rental. It would be a Logan Gilbert/Garrett Crochet/Shane McClanahan type. And it would be in conjunction with a major free agent signing like Soto or Bellinger

[zimm_da_kid]

Gore was number 6 overall.

Im not talking about moving them for a rental. It would be a Logan Gilbert/Garrett Crochet/Shane McClanahan type. And it would be in conjunction with a major free agent signing like Soto or Bellinger

Gilbert >>>>>McClanahan>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Crochet

[Slateman]

Gilbert >>>>>McClanahan>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Crochet

I dunno. You might not feel that way by the end of the year. Crochet has three bad starts inflating his ERA. By the end of the year, he could be a left handed version of Strider

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-blade-tidwell-has-a-five-pitch-arsenal-and-a-bright-future/
Dave Laurila talked to Young about his stolen base streak being broken:

“I beat [Jonah Heim’s] throw pretty easily, actually,” said Young, who went in headfirst, as is his norm. “I just came off the bag — I believe I was helped off the bag a little bit — and couldn’t get back before [Corey Seager] got the tag down.”

Young had reached against a righty, but left-hander Jacob Latz was on the mound when he ran. While the pitching change was being made, Young went into the dugout and opened up an iPad, learning what he could about the new hurler. A few pitches into a CJ Abrams at-bat, he went on Latz’s first move, only to be foiled when he over-slid the bag.

“I knew that it was coming to an end eventually,” said Young. “It was a cool thing to have going, but I wasn’t going to remain perfect. I just threw it out the window, knowing that I was going to keep being aggressive.”

[Smithian]

Gore was number 6 overall.

Im not talking about moving them for a rental. It would be a Logan Gilbert/Garrett Crochet/Shane McClanahan type. And it would be in conjunction with a major free agent signing like Soto or Bellinger

The 2022 list had him as #86 https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2022/top100/. I think health issues dropped him earlier

[Slateman]

The 2022 list had him as #86 https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2022/top100/. I think health issues dropped him earlier

2021 he was number 6

[nobleisthyname]

that's a given. The only hesitancy would be the complete lack of righty power this year. Maybe Crews gets to the majors in August,  but Thomas would be a good platoon bat and 4th outfielder

I know Rizzo wasn't happy with the offers he was getting for Thomas last season but you have to wonder if even those would be on the table this year given he has one less year of control now and has not been good/injured.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I know Rizzo wasn't happy with the offers he was getting for Thomas last season but you have to wonder if even those would be on the table this year given he has one less year of control now and has not been good/injured.

If he's back by the end of May and producing for June and most of July, there will be some stretch drive offers for a lefty-mashing platoon outfielder who can run and throw. Last year, Rizzo turned down offers that weren't for 2.5 years of control of a regular corner outfielder coming off a hot 1st half. As for this year, I would think the acquiring team is not going to value him at $7 million or whatever he'll earn next year, so I don't think the extra year of control will up the offers for him. Assuming just platoon bat running outfielder rental offers, I suspect Rizzo will hold on, because this team desperately short on righty power. He'll have a role as a DH even if next year's outfield is Wood-Young-Crews. I'm not discounting that it could end up Wood - Crews - Thomas, either.

[Smithian]

I know Rizzo wasn't happy with the offers he was getting for Thomas last season but you have to wonder if even those would be on the table this year given he has one less year of control now and has not been good/injured.

I'm fine keeping Thomas around past the last deadline. You have to have someone swinging a bat. Assuming he reverts to his usual solid bat following the IL stint, he may make sense, as JCA suggested, as an 2025 Opening Day DH who can fill in as an OF if necessary.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Discusses how Young has taken advantage of the opportunity to start since early April to become a nice offensive player with leading defensive metrics. Truly a "speed kills" guy, the article notes the pressure he puts on defenses and how he rushes defenders leading to on-base via error 3 times.

Interesting point - he has yet to run on a pitch faster than 93.2 MPH, implying something about his work studying pitchers and as well as that of Parra.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/05/15/jacob-young-nationals-impact/
Young:

“[On the bases], you’re not trying to time up a fastball and think about what percentage it’s coming and stuff like that,” Young said. “But as a base runner you might as well use all that information because you know, it’s really a yes or no real quick. So it’s one spot where data I think can only help you.”

Another secret - studying biomechanics to help both his D and his baserunning.

To get ahead, though, Young couldn’t get by on simply studying pitchers. Over the past few years, he began training more rigorously with Gormley, a biomechanical specialist in Florida who, in addition to training Young and a slew of MLB players, works with over half of the NFL’s starting quarterbacks. Young trains with other coaches who focus specifically on his hitting and speed. Gormley’s role was to help Young understand his body — and then maximize what he has learned.

discusses how he altered his throwing motion to more of a 12 O'Clock release so his throws tail less.

Next step - drive the ball a bit more:

Still, while Young doesn’t have to homer to stick in Washington — and he still hasn’t homered in the majors — his next step will be consistently driving the ball. He can create power through good hip-shoulder separation, and his swing is short but doesn’t always pop. Though he’s better positioned than most major leaguers to make something out of soft contact, he’s (of course) been better when he hammers ball: He’s hitting .538 on batted balls over with an exit velocity over 95 mph and .226 on those under it, per TruMedia. Despite using a lacrosse stick to adjust his swing path with low-A Fredericksburg, he’s still hitting groundballs at the third-highest rate in baseball (with a minimum of 100 plate appearances).

The article mentions his decline in OPS for the month of May. I don't particularly like OPS as a way of measuring a guy's value offensively when his game is speed dependent. It's sloppy, but you can think of net steals as extra bases to tack onto SLG. In Young's case, that's an extra .111 coming into today, based on 11 net steals and 99 ABs for the season. Another decent measure that captures the combined value of his hitting and running is the FG offensive runs created. Young ranks 12th among the 32 CFs with over 100 PAs.

[Smithian]

Do we need a White Whale thread? Or will this thread be sufficient?

Jacob Young was slumping but a nice three hit game yesterday hopefully means he is back on track. He is never going to be a key bat for the Nationals, but I think this guy is a a guaranteed starter or #4 OF for the next few year. The analytics like his glove in CF, good to very good on the bases, and you're not giving away outs with him in the lineup. If James Wood and Dylan Crews are who we think and hope they are, Jacob Young is a nice piece to combine with them for a cheap, cost controlled OF.

[nobleisthyname]

I'm definitely a Jacob Young fan. He doesn't produce value in the typical way productive players do in today's game (i.e., hitting the ball hard and in the air) but his style is perfectly suited for the recent rules changes and he plays plus defense at a premium defensive position.

I did notice this morning that Young hit the first barrel of his career last week on 5/22! Of course it's a day he didn't record a single hit, which is just baseball for you.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It can change, but by Statcast data, he's the 5th best qualified CF out of 20.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&stats=fld&pos=cf&type=24
Welch will love #1.

His OBP is up to .329, and his running more than makes up for his lack of power. Quietly, this guy could put up a 3 fWAR season as a rookie.