Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?

[aspenbubba]

I don't recall where I read that Stone Garretts leg was amputated.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't recall where I read that Stone Garretts leg was amputated.

of course a healthy Garrett has first dibs. It's just it looked like a very tough injury.

[blue911]

I don't recall where I read that Stone Garretts leg was amputated.

Sounds like a Sunshine Squad post

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sounds like a Sunshine Squad post

The Black Knight at the bridge.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/22/jacob-young-nationals-development-hitting/

Golden article discussing how Delmon Young in Fredericksburg used a lacrosse stick to demonstrate to Jacob Young last year a problem with his swing that was causing him to slap grounders to the left side rather spray the ball more.  JY used to be so fast he never really paid for rolling over and grounding the ball.

he focused on improving his pitch selection and simplifying his swing so that his momentum pulled toward the pitcher instead of down the third base line. That adjustment helped him read and react better at the plate. He also changed his contact point, tweaking it so that he could elevate balls more often.

“What he was trying to be through last year was being efficient with his path where those groundballs didn’t just show up,” Delwyn Young said. “It was almost like he created the groundballs … A guy like that, it’s okay to have, for the most part, have him miss on the ground with his mistakes. But would you rather him hit a ball on a line?”

[noting he had 10 doubles last year, hitting .262]

Young had 21 doubles in the minors this season. He hit six home runs, compared to two a year ago. He raised his slugging percentage by nearly 90 points.

[imref]

Interesting.  JY is a heck of a guitarist for Styx as well.

[Mattionals]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/22/jacob-young-nationals-development-hitting/

Golden article discussing how Delmon Young in Fredericksburg used a lacrosse stick to demonstrate to Jacob Young last year a problem with his swing that was causing him to slap grounders to the left side rather spray the ball more.  JY used to be so fast he never really paid for rolling over and grounding the ball.

Delmon or Delwyn? One I'm pretty sure was/is the hitting coach at Wilmington. The other is a POS.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Delmon or Delwyn? One I'm pretty sure was/is the hitting coach at Wilmington. The other is a POS.

let's just say "Del" and be happy


You are right, of course.

[nobleisthyname]

Between his elite base running and plus defense at a premium defensive position, might Young be able to work his way into the conversation of being more than just a 4th outfielder? Beating out bunt base hits and infield singles could be a legitimate tool for him given his speed, which also effectively turns those weak hits into doubles.

Last season he was worth 0.9 fWAR in just 33 games and only a 82 wRC+. That's on pace for a 3-4 WAR across a full season of play.

This season it's been more of the same. Can't hit the ball hard at all (he has yet to hit a single barrel in his career so far), but manages to produce value anyway.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't think he will ever work walks like Brett Butler, but he had tremendous success with steals, no power, and great obp due to decent avg with great bb skill. I don't think Young will ever work walks like that, but he may have better D.

[nobleisthyname]

I see you made that comparison earlier. One thing that's a bit interesting is Young's walk rate has cratered so far this season from his relatively healthy 8.3% in 121 PAs last season to just 1.5% in 66 PAs this season (which is just a single walk). He seems much more aggressive so far this season and has cut back on his strikeouts a bit as well. He posted ~10% walk rate throughout the minors so it will be interesting to see if he starts being more patient again or if this is an intentional strategy change.

[zimm_da_kid]

76.1 mph average exit velo so far this year.  81.9 last year. .378 babip this year  i doubt he's a starter on a playoff caliber team.  Cheap bench 4th of/late inning defense/pinch runner/start against like half of all lefty SPs to give guys breaks guy? yes.  i think he's that, and could be a good one too

[welch]

Between his elite base running and plus defense at a premium defensive position, might Young be able to work his way into the conversation of being more than just a 4th outfielder? Beating out bunt base hits and infield singles could be a legitimate tool for him given his speed, which also effectively turns those weak hits into doubles.

Last season he was worth 0.9 fWAR in just 33 games and only a 82 wRC+. That's on pace for a 3-4 WAR across a full season of play.

This season it's been more of the same. Can't hit the ball hard at all (he has yet to hit a single barrel in his career so far), but manages to produce value anyway.

He is the Nats regular CF until they sign the next Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays. He hits line-drives, he bunts, he steals bases, he knows when to run, he runs down fly balls, and he throws runners out.

Young wins games.

[nobleisthyname]

76.1 mph average exit velo so far this year.  81.9 last year. .378 babip this year  i doubt he's a starter on a playoff caliber team.  Cheap bench 4th of/late inning defense/pinch runner/start against like half of all lefty SPs to give guys breaks guy? yes.  i think he's that, and could be a good one too

His BABIP is up to .400 now after yesterday's game which is obviously unsustainable. But that's also allowed him to run a 121 wRC+. With gold glove centerfield defense and likely 50+ stolen bases, he would be getting MVP votes if he did sustain that across a full season. He doesn't need to do that to be starter material on a playoff team.

While his current BABIP is unsustainable, his speed should help keep his BABIP above league average (.300). If he can maintain a 90 wRC+ I think all but the most stacked teams would be happy to start him.

[Slateman]

Yep. Play him now. You hope in a year or two he's regulated to the bench, but for now, get him playing time.

[Smithian]

Good on bases. Solid defense verging on good in CF. Bat may actually end up being decent if below average in CF.

To me, that is an easy starter on this team and a guy who may stick around for years to come as a 4th OF on a winning team. I was hoping he'd end up as a right handed Andrew Stevenson but his bat is already better than Stevenson's ever was and the new rules reward players who are good on the bases.

Assuming teams don't find a massive hole in his swing that relegates him to the Mendoza line, Jacob Young is such a positive development for the Nationals. Not every prospect can be James Wood. Winning teams need to find bit players like this. The Nats in 2010's had so many players who came up and did a small job: Lombardozzi, Difo, Goodwin, Tyler Moore, Stevenson. Couldn't have them start every night, but they filled holes and kept the Nats from having to go find some veteran whose contract kept them around more than production.

Really happy with this kid.

[GburgNatsFan]

Do you think the bobbles he's been prone to are temporary? Just clumped together in an unfortunate grouping?

Good on bases. Solid defense verging on good in CF. Bat may actually end up being decent if below average in CF.

To me, that is an easy starter on this team and a guy who may stick around for years to come as a 4th OF on a winning team. I was hoping he'd end up as a right handed Andrew Stevenson but his bat is already better than Stevenson's ever was and the new rules reward players who are good on the bases.

Assuming teams don't find a massive hole in his swing that relegates him to the Mendoza line, Jacob Young is such a positive development for the Nationals. Not every prospect can be James Wood. Winning teams need to find bit players like this. The Nats in 2010's had so many players who came up and did a small job: Lombardozzi, Difo, Goodwin, Tyler Moore, Stevenson. Couldn't have them start every night, but they filled holes and kept the Nats from having to go find some veteran whose contract kept them around more than production.

Really happy with this kid.

[Smithian]

Do you think the bobbles he's been prone to are temporary? Just clumped together in an unfortunate grouping?

Like I said, solid verging on good. I think the hiccups are more a young player developing, but they're concerning enough that the bat cooling off or a couple dumb basepath moments could see the Nats trying to rush back Victor Robles.

[IanRubbish]

He is a “new rules” player, and his speed is exciting.  Hasn’t proven he’s an all star or anything exceptional, but def deserves to be the staring CFer, even when Victor comes back.

[welch]

As I was reading through a 1924 Nats game, I saw that Young's average now was about the same as Sam Rice on that day. Sam was one of the last dead-ball-era style players...ended up hitting .334, with 14 triples and 1 homer that year. Maybe Young is a throw-back: he hits, he bunts for a hit and he bunts perfectly for a sacrifice, he runs down fly ball and he throws out runners. Look at Sam Rice in 1924: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ricesa01.shtml

Nothing wrong with that.

[GburgNatsFan]

The history lesson is much appreciated.

As I was reading through a 1924 Nats game, I saw that Young's average now was about the same as Sam Rice on that day. Sam was one of the last dead-ball-era style players...ended up hitting .334, with 14 triples and 1 homer that year. Maybe Young is a throw-back: he hits, he bunts for a hit and he bunts perfectly for a sacrifice, he runs down fly ball and he throws out runners. Look at Sam Rice in 1924: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ricesa01.shtml

Nothing wrong with that.

[tomterp]

The '24 Nats had a pretty solid season as I recall.   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

A couple of posts from the GDT thread develop into a "Heck Ya" response to the opening post. Tom picked up on how this team has more or less one offensive competency, which is "speed kills." I pulled some of the numbers and drilled down into Young right as great example.

We don't really have any other offensive competency, do we?  Could be the most punchless offense we've ever had. 

pretty much. 3rd in MLB in Base running runs per FG. It makes up some for the  lack of isolated power(22nd, at .132). Even that ISO stat I think kind of is dependent on a little burst from Senzel (all 5 HR from 4/21-28 against Houston, LAD, and 3 vs Miami).

Young is a great example. Dude has a .069 ISO. The only hint of XBH from him is when he hits a gap or slices down the line and the ball rolls. That said, with 13 steals and only 1 CS, you layer another 12 bases onto his base accumulation over 87 ABs, that's like an extra .138 on his ISO. All of a sudden, he's almost like a power hitter with .207 ISO. His // line morphs into .287 / .364 / .494. or an .858 OPS. Not quite, because an XBH is still more valuable than a single and a steal for its base clearing ability, but the analogy otherwise isn't that bad. To think he's turned into  an .800+ OPS CF with good defense is a big surprise positive.

He's a huge find this season.

[imref]

Sure would be nice if we could find a power hitter somewhere in the system who could easily slot into one of the corner OF positions.....

[JCA-CrystalCity]

BTW, among 48 CF with over 50 PAs, he's 6th in fWAR (Judge, Varsho, Duran, Trout, Pages, and Young). Varsho is there because of his D and a decent O, Judge and Trout because of their O. Pages does it all, while Duran and Young are O with decent D. Duran and Young have similar bat, running, and D profiles.