Author Topic: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?  (Read 12138 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 44384
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #100 on: June 06, 2024, 08:51:25 am »
Im sorry, but Young is no where near Gardner. Gardner had multiple double digit home run seasons, and posted .340+ OBP seasons.
Gardner's ISO from ages 24-28 were .071, .109, .103 (in a 6 WAR season), .110, and .065 (knock this one out as he didn't play much). Better than Young, for sure, right now, but never more than 7 HRs.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 27560
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #101 on: June 06, 2024, 08:51:26 am »
Im sorry, but Young is no where near Gardner. Gardner had multiple double digit home run seasons, and posted .340+ OBP seasons.
Bob Dernier could be a good comp.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 44384
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #102 on: June 06, 2024, 08:52:44 am »
Bob Dernier could be a good comp.
still saying Brett Butler with better defense is ideal, but he's not quite the walk machine Butler was / became. He's not there yet, but that kind of O would be ideal for this type of player.

Oh, right now Young's OPS+ is 98, and that is without base running factored into his offense. He's clearly a plus offensively.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 44384
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #103 on: June 06, 2024, 09:02:03 am »
Dernier wasn't as efficient as a base stealer (77%, vs 90+% for Young). BB rates were comparable, and SLG, but he had an .015 lower AVG and OBP. Defense wasn't comparable, either.

https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=dernie001rob&player_id1=young-001jac&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=br&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=youngja03

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 27560
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #104 on: June 06, 2024, 09:03:35 am »
Dernier wasn't as efficient as a base stealer (77%, vs 90+% for Young). BB rates were comparable, and SLG, but he had an .015 lower AVG and OBP. Defense wasn't comparable, either.

https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=dernie001rob&player_id1=young-001jac&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=br&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=youngja03
I remember Dernier being very good at defense. Also 90 percent stolen base is over a small sample size and probably not sustainable.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 44384
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #105 on: June 06, 2024, 09:08:38 am »
I remember Dernier being very good at defense. Also 90 percent stolen base is over a small sample size and probably not sustainable.
Just going by baseball reference. As for the steal rate, Dernier had to deal with more pickoff throws and smaller bases. I don't think Young will slip below 80%, maybe not 85%, unless he gets really heavy. I don't see that body type bulking that much.

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 3809
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #106 on: June 06, 2024, 09:09:32 am »
Oh, right now Young's OPS+ is 98, and that is without base running factored into his offense. He's clearly a plus offensively.

Yep. A 90+ wRC+ hitter who can steal 50+ bases and play gold glove center field defense is a player almost any team would love to have. I don't care if he doesn't hit for any power. There's more than one way to be a productive baseball player.

That doesn't mean he needs to be kept as a franchise cornerstone. Outfield is the place the Nationals have the most depth so a trade might the most sense from a roster construction viewpoint, but calling him dead weight is a bad take in my opinion.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 66344
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #107 on: June 06, 2024, 09:29:45 am »
Dernier wasn't as efficient as a base stealer (77%, vs 90+% for Young). BB rates were comparable, and SLG, but he had an .015 lower AVG and OBP. Defense wasn't comparable, either.

https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=dernie001rob&player_id1=young-001jac&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=br&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=youngja03
Its not fair to compare base stealing with previous eras. Ricky was sub 90%

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 44384
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #108 on: June 06, 2024, 10:08:53 am »
Its not fair to compare base stealing with previous eras. Ricky was sub 90%
I completely agree. WE don't really know what rates will end up being the new normal. I'd kind of like to see some sort of SB+ or Base Runs + stat so we can compare eras to eras. A guy like prime Jacoby Ellsbury might move up in consideration when you see how much he beat his peers by. Also, Tim Raines was an extraordinary % stolen base guy IIRC.

All that said, Young's 30 steals, 3 caught stealing is extraordinary even under current rules, but if you back out his initial streak, then you might see that he's been caught 3 out of his last 10 or so attempts.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 66344
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #109 on: June 06, 2024, 11:00:36 am »
I think you're overvaluing stolen bases. We lead baseball andnour offense sucks. Maybe we had traded for Araez, and Ruiz was hitting .270+, and Dylan Crews was up here hitting .280, and we trade for Vlad Jr, okay, then maybe stolen bases matter.

But the two top teams in stolen bases are offensively challenged. The number 3 team is over 10 stolen bases less, but slugging 60 points higher.

In the end, I dont think Young's stolen bases matter much.

Offline welch

  • Posts: 17719
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #110 on: June 06, 2024, 01:36:05 pm »
Young plays a fine CF. He hits. He bunts. He steals bases. The Nats carried Robles for years, even though he was a weak hitter and a dumb base-runner. He could field fly balls, but sometimes made foolish throws to the wrong base. Young can handle CF until the team has someone much better. I've watched Hassell and Hassell is much better than last season, but he does not show himself to be better than Young. Together, Young might not be Micky, Willie, and the Duke, but he will do until Shoeless Joe From Hannibal MO walks in. Right now, Young looks like a faster version of Del Unser and who, maybe, hits better.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 12023
  • Sunshine Squad 2024
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #111 on: June 06, 2024, 03:32:44 pm »
Am I missing something? Why are we talking about trading a promising cost controlled CF when the Nats are nowhere near being serious contenders?

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 27560
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #112 on: June 06, 2024, 04:28:54 pm »
Am I missing something? Why are we talking about trading a promising cost controlled CF when the Nats are nowhere near being serious contenders?
Yea. At this point you trade veterans and keep your prospects. Worry about extending your own guys.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 66344
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #113 on: June 06, 2024, 04:39:41 pm »
Am I missing something? Why are we talking about trading a promising cost controlled CF when the Nats are nowhere near being serious contenders?
With this pitching, we are 2-3 decent bats from making the playoffs. I wouldn't say no-where near.

So like, would I trade Jacob Young for a CFer with 85% of his defensive capability, but can reliably post 115-125 wRC+?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 44384
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #114 on: June 06, 2024, 04:50:51 pm »
Am I missing something? Why are we talking about trading a promising cost controlled CF when the Nats are nowhere near being serious contenders?
because your two MLB top 10 prospects both play center, as well as probably you next 3 OF prospects. We've got a lot of CF prospects, and there's a decent chance a couple might be even better offensive weapons than Young.

It's far easier to find a capable plus offense corner OF as a free agent than a CF. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 44384
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #115 on: June 06, 2024, 04:54:53 pm »
I'm not quite there, but it could be easy to see a 2025 outfield of Wood in right, Crews in center, and say a Winker / Thomas platoon (ot something better) in left. Don't get me wrong - I'm one of Young's bigger fanboys, as most of my posts in this thread show. It's just if he can bring back a big piece in a deal, I don't reject it like I might if someone asked for Wood or Crews or Gore.

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 3809
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #116 on: June 06, 2024, 05:50:10 pm »
Considering the Nats' outfield depth, do you try and trade him for an infield bat, or do you just take the best bat you can get for him?

Offline blue911

  • Posts: 18566
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #117 on: June 06, 2024, 06:06:41 pm »
Reminds me of Ben Revere.

Offline welch

  • Posts: 17719
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #118 on: June 06, 2024, 06:25:49 pm »
Excuse me, folks, but you are arguing over Del Unser. After Bob Shorted the City of Washington, he traded Unser with "Gary Jones, Terry Ley and Denny Riddleberger to the Cleveland Indians for Roy Foster, Rich Hand, Mike Paul and Ken Suarez". After that chaotic trade, Unser went to the Phillies and did well. After bouncing to the Mets, he went back to the Phillies, and, at 35, played respectably on the Phillies first (?) WS champs. Unser was no slouch, but nobody ever thought of him as "just like" Mickey Mantle.

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 3809
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #119 on: June 06, 2024, 06:34:30 pm »
I would envision any trade of Young for a legitimate hitter would be as part of a package rather than by himself.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 46287
  • Re-contending in 202...6?
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #120 on: June 06, 2024, 06:39:36 pm »
We aren’t trading Jacob Young anytime soon folks.

Offline zimm_da_kid

  • Posts: 8096
  • The one true ace
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #121 on: June 06, 2024, 07:27:08 pm »
Young would need to nit at the level he's currently at for the rest of the year to have any real trade value.  He's the classic example of a player who's more valuable for the team they're already on

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 44384
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #122 on: June 06, 2024, 08:02:19 pm »
Reminds me of Ben Revere.
pretty close, tbh. I think young is a better defensive player, but the speed and low iso is a good match.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 12023
  • Sunshine Squad 2024
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #123 on: June 07, 2024, 06:37:53 am »
With this pitching, we are 2-3 decent bats from making the playoffs. I wouldn't say no-where near.

So like, would I trade Jacob Young for a CFer with 85% of his defensive capability, but can reliably post 115-125 wRC+?
You and I disagree on the first part of this post, which makes it hard for me to image the scenario you lay out below.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 12023
  • Sunshine Squad 2024
Re: Jacob Young, Bonafide MLB'er?
« Reply #124 on: June 07, 2024, 06:39:57 am »
because your two MLB top 10 prospects both play center, as well as probably you next 3 OF prospects. We've got a lot of CF prospects, and there's a decent chance a couple might be even better offensive weapons than Young.

It's far easier to find a capable plus offense corner OF as a free agent than a CF. 
I want to see them come up here and start producing before I’m ready to eject Young. And there’s now a DH, no reason we can’t have those three young outfielders playing while bumping Winker to DH.

Better prospects than Wood and Crews have flamed out and been AAAA churn. Don’t count our chickens until they’re hatched.