26 of top 30 OPS hitters between 25 and 33 years old

[IanRubbish]

Three are younger than 26 - Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll and Isaac Paredes, one is older - JD Martinez.  Martinez is on a one year contract.

As the Nats rebuild, actually don't want to take any chances with any $200 million contracts, they're mostly trouble.  Would rather the Lerners invest more in scouting, analytics, etc.

[Natsinpwc]

Three are younger than 26 - Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll and Isaac Paredes, one is older - JD Martinez.  Martinez is on a one year contract.

As the Nats rebuild, actually don't want to take any chances with any $200 million contracts, they're mostly trouble.  Would rather the Lerners invest more in scouting, analytics, etc.

Spending money is no guarantee of success. However generally you have to spend to stay competitive. The Rays seem the only team that are an exception from year to year.  Will be interesting to see what Baltimore does.  What Atlanta was able to do should be the model.

[Slateman]

So, what you're saying is that the majority of good hitters are also within the age range we associate with the prime of a player's career.

[Senatorswin]

Three are younger than 26 - Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll and Isaac Paredes, one is older - JD Martinez.  Martinez is on a one year contract.

As the Nats rebuild, actually don't want to take any chances with any $200 million contracts, they're mostly trouble.  Would rather the Lerners invest more in scouting, analytics, etc.

If I was an owner looking at this I'd really hesitate to sign a player to one of those 10 to 13year contracts,.

[Slateman]

If I was an owner looking at this I'd really hesitate to sign a player to one of those 10 to 13year contracts,.

Why? Whats the worst that can happen?

[Natsinpwc]

So if you’re not a top 30 hitter in MLB you are trash?  Would be more interesting to see a distribution of OPS average for each age. 

[Natsinpwc]

I got thinking more about this. I don’t see any reason why everyday ball players cannot still be effective into their mid to late thirties. Pitchers do it. Basketball, hockey and soccer players do it and I think those sports are more physically demanding. I think in baseball it’s driven by economics. Why pay a decent hitter in his mid 30s $10 million a year when you can get close to his stats for someone younger at $1 million a year.

So I was wondering has the average age of non pitchers dropped over the years?  I bet it has. I know PEDs played some role but years ago guys like Mays and Aaron and others were still productive into their late thirties. 

I don’t think there will be a player on the field tonight over 33.  So what percentage of non pitchers in MLB are over 33 nowadays? 

[Senatorswin]

Why? Whats the worst that can happen?

I suspect someday Miguel Cabrera's contract won't look as bad as it does now when compared to the last 5 or 6 years of contracts of guys like Lindor, Stanton, Turner, Bogaerts, Devers and Seager. Quite possibly even Machado, Harper and Judge.

Of course you can't get much worse than slightly shorter contracts of Stras and Rendon.

[Slateman]

I suspect someday Miguel Cabrera's contract won't look as bad as it does now when compared to the last 5 or 6 years of contracts of guys like Lindor, Stanton, Turner, Bogaerts, Devers and Seager. Quite possibly even Machado, Harper and Judge.

Of course you can't get much worse than slightly shorter contracts of Stras and Rendon.

In the meantime, Lindor, Stanton, Seager, Machado, Harper, and Judge have all been a part of playoff runs with their contracts. Turner is in a WC spot, Bogaerts and Devers are both playing on teams above .500 that are within striking distance of a WC.

Honestly, if you're an owner and you're balking at these long contracts, you either have to become the Rays or you're not going to win.

[Count Walewski]

If your minor league system and/or trades cannot get you a sufficient number of superstars, you're kinda forced to go after these FA's.

[Natsinpwc]

If your minor league system and/or trades cannot get you a sufficient number of superstars, you're kinda forced to go after these FA's.

Eventually you need to pay your minor league guys if they are good. If you always have replacements it’s ok. 

[nobleisthyname]

I got thinking more about this. I don’t see any reason why everyday ball players cannot still be effective into their mid to late thirties. Pitchers do it. Basketball, hockey and soccer players do it and I think those sports are more physically demanding. I think in baseball it’s driven by economics. Why pay a decent hitter in his mid 30s $10 million a year when you can get close to his stats for someone younger at $1 million a year.

So I was wondering has the average age of non pitchers dropped over the years?  I bet it has. I know PEDs played some role but years ago guys like Mays and Aaron and others were still productive into their late thirties.

There's probably something to this, but I don't know if pointing to two inner circle HOFers is the best counterargument.

[UMDNats]

In the 80s and 90s pitchers were throwing like 84 miles an hour and hitters were 5'6" and 170 lbs. With how good players are today, it's not surprising that a small decrease in reaction time, physical health or mental sharpness can be catastrophic to a player.

Babe Ruth could smash until he was 40 because the pitchers he faced were guys working in factories in the offseason. Now 38-year-old Jayson Werth is facing a 22-year-old rookie who is 6'6" and throws 102.

[Natsinpwc]

Good points.

If 87 percent of the top 30 are between 25 and 33 that’s nice. But what is the overall percentage of non pitchers that are between 25 and 33?  I think generally we know the prime is like 27-31.  The inference was that this age group is overrepresented in the top 30’and not sure that is true.

[Natsinpwc]

There's probably something to this, but I don't know if pointing to two inner circle HOFers is the best counterargument.

How about Ryan Zimmerman. Or Nelson Cruz.

[Natsinpwc]

In the 80s and 90s pitchers were throwing like 84 miles an hour and hitters were 5'6" and 170 lbs. With how good players are today, it's not surprising that a small decrease in reaction time, physical health or mental sharpness can be catastrophic to a player.

Babe Ruth could smash until he was 40 because the pitchers he faced were guys working in factories in the offseason. Now 38-year-old Jayson Werth is facing a 22-year-old rookie who is 6'6" and throws 102.

So how do 49 year old pitchers stay good when they are facing 6’5” guys instead of the runts that played years ago? 

Is there some physical reason pitchers can go into their late 30s but hitters cannot?

[Slateman]

So how do 49 year old pitchers stay good when they are facing 6’5” guys instead of the runts that played years ago? 

Is there some physical reason pitchers can go into their late 30s but hitters cannot?

Only gotta work once a week

[Natsinpwc]

Only gotta work once a week

Everyone smoked and sold insurance in the off-season. And drank heavily.

[nobleisthyname]

How about Ryan Zimmerman. Or Nelson Cruz.

Zimmerman's last above average season as a hitter was his age 33 season and last played at all at 36. Cruz would be a good example though.

[Slateman]

In all seriousness, hitting is far more reaction/fast twitch response heavy than pitching. And those diminish the most (and most quickly) with age.

[Natsinpwc]

In all seriousness, hitting is far more reaction/fast twitch response heavy than pitching. And those diminish the most (and most quickly) with age.

Fair enough.  With some of these long terms contracts we will have a chance to see what happens to some guys.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

let's not forget that there's a big difference between giving a guy who is 25 a 10 year contract and giving one to a guy who is 29. Soto was entering his age 23 season last year when the 13 year, $440 million offer was made. That would have taken him out to age 36. There's a lot less risk of age-related decline than there was in the Turner or Correa deals.

[Natsinpwc]

let's not forget that there's a big difference between giving a guy who is 25 a 10 year contract and giving one to a guy who is 29. Soto was entering his age 23 season last year when the 13 year, $440 million offer was made. That would have taken him out to age 36. There's a lot less risk of age-related decline than there was in the Turner or Correa deals.

Well yes. That’s why Soto is going to get paid big time.

[Slateman]

let's not forget that there's a big difference between giving a guy who is 25 a 10 year contract and giving one to a guy who is 29. Soto was entering his age 23 season last year when the 13 year, $440 million offer was made. That would have taken him out to age 36. There's a lot less risk of age-related decline than there was in the Turner or Correa deals.

No one who is 25 is getting a 10 year contract though. Everything is geared towards the contract ending at 37+

[comish4lif]

So if you’re not a top 30 hitter in MLB you are trash?  Would be more interesting to see a distribution of OPS average for each age. 

It would look like this. This is the aggregated OPS for all NL players for 2023 season to date.
https://imgur.com/a/NZ8Fi53