2024 MLB Draft

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Todd Boss over at Nationals  Arms Race up with coverage of the early mock drafts.
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18169

after going through a lot of the mock drafts over time, Todd provides his analysis:

Caglianone is a 2-way guy, but almost everyone views him as a pro bat. Most of the pundits are saying this is a 9-man draft (awesome, since we draft 10th).

For months, the industry all pretty much assumed at first that the Nats would get LSU’s Tommy White. Boy, I bet White wishes he was in last year’s draft, b/c he would have gone top 10. Now his struggles and his defensive issues have him dropping like a stone. As of this writing 5/4/24 his statline for 2024 doesn’t come anywhere near his 2023 line (.332/.409/.642 this year versus .374/.432/.725 last year). I’m really hoping the Nats go pitching this year, and later mocks have two college arms in Burns and Yesavage falling right into the range where the Nats might take them. Both are Friday starters from big-time teams and have had top 5 projections here and there, and would be great at #10. However, there seems to be a shift in the strategy, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up with a prep player.

Some of the prep players that have been flagged in the Nats range include Konner Griffin (KLaw) and Bryce Rainer (Callis).

Griffen is an OF - https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=589503
Rainer is a shortstop - https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=601525

[nobleisthyname]

Would love to get Chase Burns just for the S-tier baseball name.

[DCsOwn]

Doyle with a pretty ideal outcome for Washington in his latest mock. They’re on the clock with Wetherholt AND Smith available. As always, I’d lean bat here as well.

“ This has got to feel like a pretty big victory for the Nationals with the No. 10 overall pick considering where Wetherholt’s name was just a couple of months ago. A hamstring has slowed his ability to get on the field to this point, but most scouts and front office folks don’t see a scenario where he falls far. Considering his athleticism and impact in the box, he’s a rare breed in what is a down year for up-the-middle talents.
The Nationals will likely look to target bats at the top of drafts for the foreseeable future and it’s hard to imagine one as talented as Wetherholt slipping past the Nats at this point, assuming they feel comfortable with his hamstring woes that have plagued the talented infielder for the better part of a year. The biggest unknown in this spot is the fact Hagen Smith is still on the board. That’s surely something Washington couldn’t have prepared for.”

https://x.com/joedoylemilb/status/1795451375624573293?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

[NatsLSU]

Man JJ or Jac would be a home run. Hope one of them slips to us!

[DCsOwn]

“10. Nationals: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 4)

In terms of data, Kurtz may offer the best combination of swing decisions, contact and exit velocities in the entire Draft. He could go as high as No. 4, but the track record of first basemen at the top of the Draft and his history of injuries may knock him down further than expected. The Nationals will consider any of the consensus top 10 players who get to them, which in this projection would be Kurtz and Griffin.“

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-june-6

I’d be REALLY happy with either Kurtz or Griffin honestly. Kurtz would be a terrific add because he’d be right on the House/Wood/Crews/Abrams timeline. The Nats would be pretty loaded with high ceiling bats with Kurtz in the fold of course, and you have the ability to move some young talent for established pitching should the right opportunity arise with Hassell, Morales, Garcia, Lile or even someone like Hurtado down the line.

Also, the Nats are currently slotted at the fourth best odds in the 2025 lottery as well (with the ability to pick top 7 this year), so we should be positioned to add another foundational piece in next year’s draft. The ownership has to demonstrate a willingness to add to the roster via free agency, but the rebuild should be close to over so long as they handle the next two drafts well and demonstrate a pulse in FA. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I would lean towards a very highly rated bat, and would take the Torkelson risk if it were a 1st baseman. it is a huge need, so a college bat who could be up in 2026 would be valuable

[Natsinpwc]

College pitcher.

[welch]

Baseball America has these players around -- just above or below -- the Nats spot:

8. Angels — Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Smith could easily be off the board five picks higher than this. In this scenario, I have him being the second pitcher off the board and sliding to No. 8 with the Angels. If Los Angeles remains intent on drafting a player who can move quickly I think Smith has that potential given his elite pure stuff and the command/delivery improvements he’s shown this spring.

His season has been remarkable. A 1.48 ERA through 15 starts and 79 innings with a 50% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and a fastball that’s averaged 95.7 mph from the left side. Yes it’s a college schedule and yes he’s only pitched a complete seven innings once, but here’s the complete list of lefthanded MLB starters with at least 70 innings from 2023 who matched or surpassed that velo:

Shane McClanahan, 96.8
Cole Ragans, 96.8
Jesus Luzardo, 96.8
Tarik Skubal, 95.8
Blake Snell, 95.6
Not a bad group.

9. Pirates — Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
For whatever reason, Montgomery’s name seems to show up toward the back of this top tier of college bats, so I have him “sliding” to the Pirates at No. 9. In terms of tools, performance, athleticism and defensive profile I think he has one of the most appealing packages in the class. But he also might have the worst pure contact skills of the group and that could be enough to push him into this range.

He’s a career .315/.426/.646 hitter with 61 home runs, a 22.4% strikeout rate and a 13.9% walk rate, a great frame at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds with a 70 arm and classic right field profile and toolset. He’s also been one of the best hitters (hello Jace Laviolette) on one of the best offensive teams in the country while playing in the toughest conference. No matter which college player from this elite top eight tier falls to the back of the pack, I imagine the team that winds up with him will be pretty happy with it. In this mock, that’s the Pirates.

10. Nationals — Konnor Griffin, OF/SS, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss.
Griffin probably has more 70-grade tools on his scouting card than any player in this class. That should be enough for him to get popped inside the top 10. For months I had scouts saying that’s where they expected him to go, though recently there’s been some chatter about him potentially sliding. I’m not sure why because his spring performance was phenomenal, he’s young for the class and profiles at multiple premium defensive profiles.

Perhaps the pro struggles of other electric athletes and tooled up righthanded hitters from the high school ranks in recent years—Benny Montgomery and Elijah Green come to mind—are creating some doubt about this profile? There are safer profiles available here, like ECU righthander Trey Yesavage or FSU lefthanded hitter James Tibbs III… but will Washington pass up Griffin’s immense upside? I’m not convinced just yet.

11. Tigers — Trey Yesavage, RHP, ECU
Injury was about the only thing that could slow Yesavage down this season. He dealt with a punctured lung that kept him off the mound in the ACC tournament and caused a bit of a scare, though it sounds like he should be able to pitch in this weekend’s Greenville regional, where a matchup with Chase Burns is possible. Yesavage has pitched his way into the consensus No. 3 pitcher slot in this class. I’ve yet to hear anyone say that this injury has removed that status. This is about the range where high school pitchers could seem like real options.

12. Red Sox — Seaver King, SS/OF, Wake Forest
King is a 6-foot dynamo with eye-popping physical tools via his twitchy hands, pure speed and shockingly good exit velocity data. His top-end exit velocity metrics place him with some of the better sluggers in the nation but he brings 70-grade speed and a chance for solid shortstop or center field defense. Yes, the approach probably needs some refinement but he slashed .316/.385/.594 with 16 home runs, 14 doubles and 11 steals in 58 games.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-mock-draft-3-0-updated-first-round-ahead-of-ncaa-tournament/

[welch]

MLB: Mayo and Callis say, on June 20

8. Angels: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina (No. 11)
Callis: “They've taken hitters that have gone to the big leagues [really quickly] with their last couple of first-round picks. They also rushed Ben Joyce and Victor Mederos there, Sam Bachman got up there pretty quickly. Trey Yesavage is a guy who could be in the rotation at some point next year.”

2024 Draft: Trey Yesavage, RHP
Apr 15, 2024 · 0:50
2024 Draft: Trey Yesavage, RHP

9. Pirates: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 4)
Mayo: “We always talked about like, ‘Oh, you don't draft for need at the big league level,' but they have no first basemen anywhere in the system. ... It's not like Nick Kurtz is going to walk in and be their starting first baseman Opening Day next year, but this is something that they actually have a need for. If he's there at No. 9, I think there's going to be a good argument to be had between the Kurtz and the top two high school guys -- Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer.”

2024 Draft: Nick Kurtz, 1B
Apr 15, 2024 · 0:51
2024 Draft: Nick Kurtz, 1B

10. Nationals: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss. (No. 9)
Callis: “There are teams who question the swing and how well it's going to play against big league pitching, but in terms of ceiling, I think he's got the highest ceiling the Draft. You're talking a potential 30-30 guy who could be a plus defender at shortstop or a Gold Glove center fielder.”

2024 Draft: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF
Apr 15, 2024 · 0:45
2024 Draft: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF

11. Tigers: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake, Calif. (No. 10)
Mayo: “In this scenario, they'll take whichever high school player the Nationals don't. ... There are some scouting directors who like Rainer over Griffin because they feel more confident in his ability to hit.”

2024 Draft: Bryce Rainer, SS
Apr 15, 2024 · 1:19
2024 Draft: Bryce Rainer, SS

12. Red Sox: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee (No. 25)
Callis: “Hit for the cycle [in the Men’s College World Series] and threw in an extra double, the key to a big comeback in the ninth inning. He has 33 home runs. ... I think the Red Sox are taking a college bat.”

[nobleisthyname]

Elijah Green vibes with the talks of incredible ceiling potential but also potential hit issues for Konnor Griffin.

[welch]

Keith Law, on the 19th, predicted, in the Athletic:

8. Los Angeles Angels: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
This would be a dream scenario for the Angels, who everyone thinks will take a player they can bring to the majors in August. They’ve been linked to East Carolina right-hander Trey Yesavage, Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt, and Florida State outfielder James Tibbs III, as well as the top group of college guys.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
The Pirates sit around the inflection point of the first round — with Yesavage and Braden Montgomery getting hurt, the Pirates could end up dipping into the second tier of players to try to cut a deal, with Tibbs and Waldschmidt coming up as potential names.

10. Washington Nationals: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
Montgomery might have sneaked into the top five had he not broken his ankle in the Super Regionals, ending his season and pushing his draft status into the hands of team doctors once they see his medicals.

11. Detroit Tigers: Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson (Miss.) Prep
Griffin is the high-ceiling, high-risk guy among the prep players and could still end up in the top 10. I also think the Tigers would be on Rainer or Montgomery, depending on who gets here.


12. Boston Red Sox: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
Beyond Yesavage, I’ve heard them with several college hitters, including Tennessee’s Christian Moore and LSU’s Tommy White.

[imref]

So is Montgomery Rendon 2.0? IIRC, Rendon's stock also dropped due to an ankle injury.

[welch]

So is Montgomery Rendon 2.0? IIRC, Rendon's stock also dropped due to an ankle injury.

Does Montgomery hate playing baseball?

[zoom]

It's draft week!   Jonathan Mayo's latest:
https://www.on3.com/pro/news/mlb-pipeline-jonathan-mayo-releases-penultimate-2024-mlb-mock-draft-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon/

Spoiler alert:  he has Nats taking Rainer. 

[OfftheBat]

It's draft week!   Jonathan Mayo's latest:
https://www.on3.com/pro/news/mlb-pipeline-jonathan-mayo-releases-penultimate-2024-mlb-mock-draft-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon/

Spoiler alert:  he has Nats taking Rainer.

Thanks for the link

[imref]

Too bad we can't trade up for Caglianone.

[imref]

It's draft week!   Jonathan Mayo's latest:
https://www.on3.com/pro/news/mlb-pipeline-jonathan-mayo-releases-penultimate-2024-mlb-mock-draft-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon/

Spoiler alert:  he has Nats taking Rainer. 

same here:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-july-4

[Natsinpwc]

Can we call him Mount?

[HondoKillebrew]

I get the upside with the two high schoolers who might be available at #10, but I’m hoping a more proven college option unexpectedly slides down to the Nats. 

[imref]

Can we call him Mount?

better than Tanner

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Can we call him Mount?

a natural for the Mariners

[imref]

Law now has the Nats taking Trey Yesavage at 10 https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5629426/2024/07/11/mlb-mock-draft-2024-prospects-travis-bazzana/

He, like a few others, compares Griffin to Elijah Green and suggests the Nats don't want another strikeout artist.

[nobleisthyname]

Longenhagen at Fangraphs has the Nationals taking Konnor Griffin at number 10:

If we’re picking potential landing spots for Griffin, a toolsy high schooler with strikeout risk, it’s the team that recently drafted Elijah Green and Brady House. But Washington has a new scouting director (Danny Haas, formerly of the Diamondbacks), so this might depend on whether Haas or Mike Rizzo is making the pick.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-mock-draft-1-0/

[zoom]

Griffin seems to be the biggest risk/reward pick in the 'top 10ish'.  Curious how the Nats go with the evaluators.

[imref]

Griffin seems to be the biggest risk/reward pick in the 'top 10ish'.  Curious how the Nats go with the evaluators.

we already have an Elijah Green