Post Prospect: Dylan Crews, OF

[IanRubbish]

So they're teaching him to lay off pitches and in the process he's striking out more and hitting with less power in exchange for more walks.  But his P/PA hasn't increased much, which suggests a real issue making contact, and being able to foul off borderline pitches.

[imref]

0-8, 3Ks today. Ugh.

[rileyn]

Is it still the off-speed pitches that he can't hit?

[Slateman]

Just can't hit, period.

[imref]

.246 babip

[Natsinpwc]

Sounds like he’s ready! 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Full Name: Dylan G. Crews
Age: 21 (February 26, 2002)
Birthplace:  Altamonte Springs, FL
Bats/Throws: R/R Ht: 6' 0" Wt: 205
Draft: Round 1, 2nd overall (2023, WSH)
School: LSU
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-draft-prospects-2023-big-board-top-100-ranked/hiukh1ffmw6px9iflfciuqot

https://www.si.com/college/lsu/baseball/mlb-draft-lsu-star-dylan-crews-selected-no-2-overall-by-the-washington-nationals

In the OP of this thread, quoting the sporting news. This is kind of amazing in hindsight:

He has the best hit tool in the draft with an impeccable eye at the plate and the ability to make consistent, hard contact. Crews might not be a 40-home run hitter, but he should top 20 every year and could reach the 30s

It will be a fascinating post-mortem on how badly scouts missed on his hit tool. One theory is that college bats can make bad contact look better; he may have been getting hits and showing power on contact that a wood bat didn't forgive. Doesn't explain the swing and miss, but perhaps he adjusted his swing to compensate and lost some of the discipline. Always struck me as a guy who may be trying too hard to meet not only playing expectations but also leadership burdens.

[Smithian]

A superstar SEC hitter with ability to cover CF is about as can't miss a prospect there is. I would have been angry if the Nats passed on him, and there's a reason he was ranked high on prospect lists.

I have no idea what has gone wrong. There will be a sad postmortem. I'm hoping for his sake he gets a fresh start if this season ends with him still scuffling.

[imref]

In the OP of this thread, quoting the sporting news. This is kind of amazing in hindsight:

It will be a fascinating post-mortem on how badly scouts missed on his hit tool. One theory is that college bats can make bad contact look better; he may have been getting hits and showing power on contact that a wood bat didn't forgive. Doesn't explain the swing and miss, but perhaps he adjusted his swing to compensate and lost some of the discipline. Always struck me as a guy who may be trying too hard to meet not only playing expectations but also leadership burdens.

Pretty sure he did well in a wooden bat league in 2022.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Pretty sure he did well in a wooden bat league in 2022.

He played 2 seasons in the Florida College Summer league - 2020 & 2021. 2021 it was just 12 PAs. 2020 it was 63. Decent line in 2020 - .300 / .413 / .471. That's not much power, tbh, but it was 3 years before he was drafted.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=crews-000dyl

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

In the OP of this thread, quoting the sporting news. This is kind of amazing in hindsight:

It will be a fascinating post-mortem on how badly scouts missed on his hit tool. One theory is that college bats can make bad contact look better; he may have been getting hits and showing power on contact that a wood bat didn't forgive. Doesn't explain the swing and miss, but perhaps he adjusted his swing to compensate and lost some of the discipline. Always struck me as a guy who may be trying too hard to meet not only playing expectations but also leadership burdens.

I think there's a chance our staff was just so horrible it wasn't conducive to development. I think this group can fix him.

[rbw5t]

I except he’ll be a useful major leaguer at some point. Don’t know if it will be here.

[imref]

Nusbaum's latest notes that Crews is making harder contact and chasing less, but is still missing too many pitches and hitting half of the balls he makes contact with into the ground. They are focusing on improving his launch angle.

4-11, 3B, HR in his last 3 games with 3Ks and 2BBs

[imref]

2-4, 2B tonight. heating up.

[nobleisthyname]

Age: 24
Team rank: Graduated
Current level: AAA

March/April recap

Games played at position
CF: 12
RF: 10
LF: 3
DH: 2

PA

|

AVG

|

OBP

|

SLG

|

HR

|

SB

|

K%

|

BB%

|

ISO

|

OPS

|

wRC+

118

|

.240

|

.347

|

.380

|

3

|

5

|

26.3%

|

12.7%

|

.140

|

.727

|

94

[imref]

5-14, 2B, 3B, HR in his last 4 games. 3Ks, 2BBs.

[imref]

#4

[imref]

Red Wings homestand player of the week. 2-4 overall today

[welch]

Red Wings homestand player of the week. 2-4 overall today

2 for 4, 2 RBIs, including a solo homer.

[varoadking]

Red Wings homestand player of the week.

 

Wonder if he has room on the mantel for that trophy?

[blue911]

Wonder if he has room on the mantel for that trophy?

Like the Stanley Cup, you have to return it once all of your fans get to see it.

[IanRubbish]

As long as he's still a Red Wing on Friday, his FA eligibility gets pushed back to after the 2031, or his age 29, season. 

He's putting up similar numbers at AAA as he did two years ago.  He hasn't really advanced, similar to how is '24 and '25 MLB numbers were very similar.  Getting close to confirming as a bust.

[imref]

Detailed look at him posted at: https://x.com/jowole1216/status/2053898057884811648?s=20

His exit velocities are off the chart, and his pull-air rates are also quite good, but he isn't walking much and his whiff rates continue to be absurdly high. His Z-Contact% has improved, but his O-Swing% (or Chase%) has declined. You'd like to find some medium where he has a Whiff% around 30%, while the contact metrics stay elite, but until then it's quite insane what's going on.

One final note, he's gotten the highest percentage of strikes in all of AAA at 66.2% since April 27, which means that his Chase% is probably not that meaningful due to the quite small sample.

[imref]

Hit his fifth, 4 total RBI in a 2-4 night.