Author Topic: Darnell Coles  (Read 3882 times)

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Offline Senatorswin

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Darnell Coles
« Topic Start: May 25, 2023, 11:30:45 PM »
A lot of people were upset with the departure of Kevin Long, but it would seem Darnell Coles is doing just fine. Although the Nats don't hit many home runs I doubt too many people would of had the Nats tied for 4th in all of MLB in batting average. Meanwhile, with all the money the Phillies have spent on hitters they are 10th.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #1: May 26, 2023, 06:07:20 AM »
22nd in wRC+, slugging, and runs scored per game
29th in ISO
3rd lowest walk rate in baseball
The three cornerstones of this team (Abrams, Ruiz, and Garcia) look utterly lost at the plate

Exactly what is Coles doing well? Turning everyone into weak contact, slap hitters?

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #2: May 26, 2023, 09:37:26 AM »
Yeah, I don't care about batting average, I care about scoring runs. As this team has shown slapping singles everywhere leads to a high average but is not a recipe for scoring a lot of runs.

I'm not sure how much of the blame goes to Coles vs the current group of players just not being very good. I will say a lot of the young players appear to have better approaches at the plate this year, even if it hasn't resulted in better batted ball outcomes yet.

Offline imref

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #3: May 26, 2023, 10:39:25 AM »
Yeah, I don't care about batting average, I care about scoring runs. As this team has shown slapping singles everywhere leads to a high average but is not a recipe for scoring a lot of runs.

I'm not sure how much of the blame goes to Coles vs the current group of players just not being very good. I will say a lot of the young players appear to have better approaches at the plate this year, even if it hasn't resulted in better batted ball outcomes yet.

We're 22nd in runs scored with a starting 9 that would be in AAA in most any other organization and tied for 4th in hits. If anything, Coles deserves praise.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #4: May 26, 2023, 10:44:50 AM »
Looking at the Nats roster there's no way anyone expected they would be tied for 4th in batting average considering what their payroll is. There's not one hitter on the Nats who's even considered close to a star.

Their batting averages are higher than teams who have spent big bucks on hitters such as the Phillies, Padres, Yankees, Dodgers etc. Nobody's going to make the Nats hitters hit what they're not capable of, but Coles is doing a better job with what he has than Long has with the Phillies. Despite all the money spent on stars the Phillies are tied for 20th in runs scored and the Nats are just behind them. They're also ahead of the Padres, another team who has spent big bucks on hitters.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #5: May 26, 2023, 10:46:30 AM »
We're going to end up historically low in home runs by a team in a season but yeah let's praise the hitting coach who has instructed every young player to swing at the first pitch 90% of the time. How freaking low is the bar now that you can think Coles should be praised?

Coles, like most of the MLB coaching staff, won't get another MLB job after they get fired from this one, which tells you all you need to know.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #6: May 26, 2023, 10:48:16 AM »
Looking at the Nats roster there's no way anyone expected they would be tied for 4th in batting average considering what their payroll is. There's not one hitter on the Nats who's even considered close to a star.

Their batting averages are higher than teams who have spent big bucks on hitters such as the Phillies, Padres, Yankees, Dodgers etc. Nobody's going to make the Nats hitters hit what they're not capable of, but Coles is doing a better job with what he has than Long has with the Phillies. Despite all the money spent on stars the Phillies are tied for 20th in runs scored and the Nats are just behind them. They're also ahead of the Padres, another team who has spent big bucks on hitters.

Candelario hits a base hit to right field. Dom Smith follows with another to center. Garcia swings at the first pitch and hits into a double play, and Abrams flies out to right on the first pitch of his at-bat. We hit .500 this inning, was it a good inning?

Offline imref

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #7: May 26, 2023, 10:54:11 AM »
Candelario hits a base hit to right field. Dom Smith follows with another to center. Garcia swings at the first pitch and hits into a double play, and Abrams flies out to right on the first pitch of his at-bat. We hit .500 this inning, was it a good inning?

well, you have to only focus on the negative, so it was a terrible inning. :)

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #8: May 26, 2023, 11:01:54 AM »
We're 22nd in runs scored with a starting 9 that would be in AAA in most any other organization and tied for 4th in hits. If anything, Coles deserves praise.

I can definitely see this argument. I just don't understand the praise for having a high batting average. The game isn't won by who got the most hits, and as we've seen batting average has a relatively weak correlation with scoring runs. It would be like praising the pitching coach for having a bottom tier staff in ERA and WHIP just because they don't walk many hitters.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #9: May 26, 2023, 11:02:45 AM »
Looking at the Nats roster there's no way anyone expected they would be tied for 4th in batting average considering what their payroll is. There's not one hitter on the Nats who's even considered close to a star.

Their batting averages are higher than teams who have spent big bucks on hitters such as the Phillies, Padres, Yankees, Dodgers etc. Nobody's going to make the Nats hitters hit what they're not capable of, but Coles is doing a better job with what he has than Long has with the Phillies. Despite all the money spent on stars the Phillies are tied for 20th in runs scored and the Nats are just behind them. They're also ahead of the Padres, another team who has spent big bucks on hitters.
Only the Padres are scoring fewer runs per game than the Nats.

Would much rather have their offenses than what the Nats currently have.

Meneses, Garcia, Ruiz, Call, and Abrams have all regressed at the plate. This is not progress.

Online Five Banners

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #10: May 26, 2023, 11:04:31 AM »
Only the Padres are scoring fewer runs per game than the Nats.

Would much rather have their offenses than what the Nats currently have.

Lerner the younger says talk to Rizzo

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #11: May 26, 2023, 11:11:59 AM »
No one really focuses on batting average anymore.  It doesn’t correlate directly with scoring runs. Look at OBP and slugging.  That said I don’t think you can expect Coles to turn miracles with guys. For Abrams and Garcia it’s their first full year in the big leagues so there will be ups and downs. That is why it is silly to talk about windows for contending when some of the guys in the minors now will first hit the big leagues. There is an adjustment for most. Nats fans were spoiled by guys like Harper and Rendon. They are the exceptions and not the rule. Same for pitchers. Look at how much better Gray is pitching this year.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #12: May 26, 2023, 11:13:12 AM »
We would be ~.500 with the Phillies offense. We would be having legitimate conversations about trading Wood+ for Dylan Cease.

Offline imref

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #13: May 26, 2023, 11:15:35 AM »
No one really focuses on batting average anymore.  It doesn’t correlate directly with scoring runs. Look at OBP and slugging.  That said I don’t think you can expect Coles to turn miracles with guys. For Abrams and Garcia it’s their first full year in the big leagues so there will be ups and downs. That is why it is silly to talk about windows for contending when some of the guys in the minors now will first hit the big leagues. There is an adjustment for most. Nats fans were spoiled by guys like Harper and Rendon. They are the exceptions and not the rule. Same for pitchers. Look at how much better Gray is pitching this year.
sanity

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #14: May 26, 2023, 11:19:40 AM »
No one really focuses on batting average anymore.  It doesn’t correlate directly with scoring runs. Look at OBP and slugging.  That said I don’t think you can expect Coles to turn miracles with guys. For Abrams and Garcia it’s their first full year in the big leagues so there will be ups and downs. That is why it is silly to talk about windows for contending when some of the guys in the minors now will first hit the big leagues. There is an adjustment for most. Nats fans were spoiled by guys like Harper and Rendon. They are the exceptions and not the rule. Same for pitchers. Look at how much better Gray is pitching this year.
Yep. We're 4th in batting average, but 12th in OBP. The other teams in the top 5 are all well above us in OBP and slugging.

Abrams now has more big leage at bats than in the minors. Garcia is into his second full season of at bats. Same for Ruiz. All of these guys have gotten progessively worse as their time in DC has gone on.

Im not saying its time to panic, but its time to be concerned. If we're still seeing this in August then we need to acknowledge a pretty major problem. This cant be the same situation the next couple seasons when we are looking to bring up guys like Hassell, House, and/or Wood

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #15: May 26, 2023, 11:20:30 AM »
We would be ~.500 with the Phillies offense. We would be having legitimate conversations about trading Wood+ for Dylan Cease.
Phillies offense has not been great but Harper missed a good part of the season so far. Turner in the slump of his career. And Schwarber off to the usual slow start. But their problem has really been the starting pitching. Think Wheeler and especially Nola are worn down from all the high stress innings in October. But yeah. It’s a better lineup than ours. And so is SD.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #16: May 26, 2023, 11:21:54 AM »
Yep. We're 4th in batting average, but 12th in OBP. The other teams in the top 5 are all well above us in OBP and slugging.

Abrams now has more big leage at bats than in the minors. Garcia is into his second full season of at bats. Same for Ruiz. All of these guys have gotten progessively worse as their time in DC has gone on.

Im not saying its time to panic, but its time to be concerned. If we're still seeing this in August then we need to acknowledge a pretty major problem. This cant be the same situation the next couple seasons when we are looking to bring up guys like Hassell, House, and/or Wood
Not opposed to finding another hitting coach if there is no improvement. But LAC.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #17: May 26, 2023, 12:13:59 PM »
here's a little quiz for folks.

which team typically scores more runs:

team A: .280 / .330 / .400
team B: .245 / .330 / .400

Same ops.

Team A? Team B? the same?

there's studies on this.

the team with more extra base hits, which is team B. 

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #18: May 26, 2023, 12:14:53 PM »
Yep. We're 4th in batting average, but 12th in OBP. The other teams in the top 5 are all well above us in OBP and slugging.

Abrams now has more big leage at bats than in the minors. Garcia is into his second full season of at bats. Same for Ruiz. All of these guys have gotten progessively worse as their time in DC has gone on.

Im not saying its time to panic, but its time to be concerned. If we're still seeing this in August then we need to acknowledge a pretty major problem. This cant be the same situation the next couple seasons when we are looking to bring up guys like Hassell, House, and/or Wood

Looking at their Savant pages both Ruiz and García have made significant improvements over their 2022 seasons. The results haven't been there yet, but that's not what we should be caring about at this point in the rebuild. García has a .333 xwOBA vs a .293 wOBA and Ruiz is at .355 and .290 respectively which suggests both have been getting pretty unlucky. With .320 being roughly league average those would be great and realistic numbers for them to reach.

Abrams has been disappointing, especially on defense, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt still.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #19: May 26, 2023, 12:16:48 PM »
here's a little quiz for folks.

which team typically scores more runs:

team A: .280 / .330 / .400
team B: .245 / .330 / .400

Same ops.

Team A? Team B? the same?

there's studies on this.

the team with more extra base hits, which is team B. 

This is why ISO is such a useful "simple" stat (just SLG - AVG).

Offline imref

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #20: May 26, 2023, 12:32:10 PM »
We would be ~.500 with the Phillies offense. We would be having legitimate conversations about trading Wood+ for Dylan Cease.

Uh, Corbin has a lower ERA than Cease this season....

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #21: May 26, 2023, 01:06:09 PM »
Only the Padres are scoring fewer runs per game than the Nats.

Would much rather have their offenses than what the Nats currently have.

Meneses, Garcia, Ruiz, Call, and Abrams have all regressed at the plate. This is not progress.

Not so. Martinez and Coles main objective this spring was to get Garcia to walk more. It's worked. He will now take a walk. Abrams OBP is up slightly but his home runs and RBI's are up. Ruiz's BA is down but his home run rate is up. Call is never going to be a MLB player. Meneses's power is down but his RISP average is through the roof.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #22: May 26, 2023, 01:07:53 PM »
Looking at their Savant pages both Ruiz and García have made significant improvements over their 2022 seasons. The results haven't been there yet, but that's not what we should be caring about at this point in the rebuild. García has a .333 xwOBA vs a .293 wOBA and Ruiz is at .355 and .290 respectively which suggests both have been getting pretty unlucky. With .320 being roughly league average those would be great and realistic numbers for them to reach.

Abrams has been disappointing, especially on defense, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt still.
Garcia has now power. He traded swing and miss for hitting weak balls into the ground. Not really an improvement. Ruiz is just a weak contact machine at this point.

This isnt bad luck. This is weak hitting. And considering that Coles' philosphy is swing baby, swing, then it makes sense that  that philosophy is directly related to the players' underperformance.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #23: May 26, 2023, 01:10:28 PM »
Not so. Martinez and Coles main objective this spring was to get Garcia to walk more. It's worked. He will now take a walk. Abrams OBP is up slightly but his home runs and RBI's are up. Ruiz's BA is down but his home run rate is up. Call is never going to be a MLB player. Meneses's power is down but his RISP average is through the roof.
Its a 6% walk rate. Thats still fairly poor. Would much rather trade a ~3% Increase in walks for double digit home runs.

Abrams looks terrible. That guy looks like he belongs in Double A.

Ruiz home run rate is up marginally from last season, but no where near where it was when he got here in 2021. And his slugging is down from last year.

Sorry, there isnt a case for these guys getting better. They are different, but not better. Might be them. Might be Coles. Rizzo staked his reputation and the org's future on this rebuild. Player development needs to happen

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #24: May 26, 2023, 01:12:35 PM »
We would be ~.500 with the Phillies offense. We would be having legitimate conversations about trading Wood+ for Dylan Cease.

The Phillies run production this year is pretty much equivalent to the Nats runs per game despite the Phillies having paid much more for their hitters. The Nats runs per game this year is up while the Phillies is down.

The Nats are getting the most out of what they have. They don't have one batter even close to be a star yet but their run production is better than the Padres, who have spent through the roof for hitters. and equal to the Phillies.