Author Topic: Darnell Coles  (Read 3479 times)

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Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #25: May 26, 2023, 01:21:23 PM »
The Phillies run production this year is pretty much equivalent to the Nats runs per game despite the Phillies having paid much more for their hitters. The Nats runs per game this year is up while the Phillies is down.

The Nats are getting the most out of what they have. They don't have one batter even close to be a star yet but their run production is better than the Padres, who have spent through the roof for hitters. and equal to the Phillies.

Phillies are scoring 4.30 runs per game. Nats are at 4.16.

Phillies did this with no Rhys Hoskins, Bryce gone for a month, and Trea Turner having an abysmal performance. The Nats are getting either expected performances or over performances out of their roster.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #26: May 26, 2023, 01:23:55 PM »
Really glad Luis Garcia traded 10 points of OBP for -40 points in slugging, a lower fly ball rate and higher ground ball rate. He went from a league-average bat at 2B to Victor Robles but crappy at defense.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #27: May 26, 2023, 01:26:44 PM »
Kevin Long: 10+ years as one of the best hitting coaches in the game, proven track record of maximizing batters' abilities and improving outcomes

/phillies lose their cleanup hitter, their star SS turns into a pumpkin and their #1 hitter is out for 2 months

"wow he sucks and our guy who has Dom Smith slugging .300 is pretty good!"

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #28: May 26, 2023, 01:31:49 PM »
Garcia has now power. He traded swing and miss for hitting weak balls into the ground. Not really an improvement. Ruiz is just a weak contact machine at this point.

This isnt bad luck. This is weak hitting. And considering that Coles' philosphy is swing baby, swing, then it makes sense that  that philosophy is directly related to the players' underperformance.

I mean, this sounds like a case of going by the numbers vs the eye test. By the numbers it's indisputable, both Ruiz and García are hitting better this year than last. You can look for yourself:
Ruiz Savant page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/keibert-ruiz-660688?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
García Savant page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/luis-garcia-671277?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

García's hard hit rate is the same as last year, but his whiff rate went from mediocre to elite. His walk rates went from terrible to mediocre. He is hitting the ball on the ground more often but not enough that xwOBA thinks he shouldn't be doing better.

Ruiz has more than doubled his hard hit rate (though to be fair it was atrocious last year so it's merely "mediocre" now). But even more impressive is his barrel rate which has quadrupled.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #29: May 26, 2023, 01:40:28 PM »
Phillies are scoring 4.30 runs per game. Nats are at 4.16.

Phillies did this with no Rhys Hoskins, Bryce gone for a month, and Trea Turner having an abysmal performance. The Nats are getting either expected performances or over performances out of their roster.

Right. The Phillies are 21 in runs scored this year and the Nats are 22.

Isn't Long supposed to help Turner? Anyway, your last statement is my point exactly.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #30: May 26, 2023, 01:45:19 PM »
I mean, this sounds like a case of going by the numbers vs the eye test. By the numbers it's indisputable, both Ruiz and García are hitting better this year than last. You can look for yourself:
Ruiz Savant page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/keibert-ruiz-660688?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
García Savant page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/luis-garcia-671277?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

García's hard hit rate is the same as last year, but his whiff rate went from mediocre to elite. His walk rates went from terrible to mediocre. He is hitting the ball on the ground more often but not enough that xwOBA thinks he shouldn't be doing better.

Ruiz has more than doubled his hard hit rate (though to be fair it was atrocious last year so it's merely "mediocre" now). But even more impressive is his barrel rate which has quadrupled.
Garcia's hard hit rate is down from last year and his launch angle is half of what it is. And his hard hit rate was meh, so, like UMD stated, he exchanged significant power for a marginal return in OBP. And this is all without a shift. So, objectively, he should be outperforming.

Ruiz is below 30th percentile in EV and Max EV. Slugging is down. Average is down. His hard hit rate is up 2% (not sure where you are getting double)

Both players have an increase in outside the zone contact. Garcia is up 12% from last year. Ruiz up almost 2%. Both of these guys are swinging and hitting more pitches outside the zone. Which usually correlates to weak contact. This would especially show for Garcia, as he is swinging and missing less, but the pitches he is swinging and hitting are pitches that are outside of the zone and that usually results in poor contact.


They're both specializing in poor pitch selection and weak contact. With no shift, there l'd really no argument for bad luck on either of these guys. Batting averages are up across MLB. This is a direct result of Coles' philosophy.  He wants them to swing and doesn't care to teach pitch selection/recognition. So now, instead of swinging and missing, they're both making weak contact.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #31: May 26, 2023, 01:53:09 PM »
Garcia's hard hit rate is down from last year and his launch angle is half of what it is. And his hard hit rate was meh, so, like UMD stated, he exchanged significant power for a marginal return in OBP. And this is all without a shift. So, objectively, he should be outperforming.

Ruiz is below 30th percentile in EV and Max EV. Slugging is down. Average is down. His hard hit rate is up 2% (not sure where you are getting double)

They're both specializing in poor pitch selection and weak contact. With no shift, there l'd really no argument for bad luck on either of these guys. This is a direct result of Coles' philosophy.  He wants them to swing and doesnt care to teach pitch selection/recognition.

I misspoke on the doubling. I was referring to Ruiz's percentile ranking which more than doubled. The barrel rate is the more intriguing improvement. There's no reason for him to be doing so much better in that category but having worse results. He's absolutely getting unlucky in that regard (and this is reflected in the wOBA-xwOBA difference). I mean even you acknowledged he's hitting the ball harder (only slightly, but if you're going to ding García for being 0.6% worse Ruiz deserves credit for doing better) and barreling the ball way more than last year.

García's hard hit rate is 36.1% this year vs 36.7% last year. Technically down, but that's basically the same rate in my book. That's being pretty nitpicky to hold against him in my opinion. He's hitting the ball on the ground more, but just by virtue of swinging at better pitches while hitting the ball basically as hard as before suggests he should be getting better results (again reflected in the wOBA-xwOBA difference).

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #32: May 26, 2023, 01:57:12 PM »
I misspoke on the doubling. I was referring to Ruiz's percentile ranking which more than doubled. The barrel rate is the more intriguing improvement. There's no reason for him to be doing so much better in that category but having worse results. He's absolutely getting unlucky in that regard (and this is reflected in the wOBA-xwOBA difference). I mean even you acknowledged he's hitting the ball harder (only slightly, but if you're going to ding García for being 0.6% worse Ruiz deserves credit for doing better) and barreling the ball way more than last year.

García's hard hit rate is 36.1% this year vs 36.7% last year. Technically down, but that's basically the same rate in my book. That's being pretty nitpicky to hold against him in my opinion. He's hitting the ball on the ground more, but just by virtue of swinging at better pitches while hitting the basically as hard as before suggests he should be getting better results (again reflected in the wOBA-xwOBA difference).

See my edit above. They're both making contact outside the zone more. Again, Coles wants players to swing early and more. This trend started with Ruiz coming to DC.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #33: May 26, 2023, 02:01:17 PM »
Right. The Phillies are 21 in runs scored this year and the Nats are 22.

Isn't Long supposed to help Turner? Anyway, your last statement is my point exactly.
No one is saying Long can fix everything. But with him, Soto was an MVP caliber player. Brandon Marsh and Christian Pache have become above average hitters. Bryson Scott continues to improve. And Alec Bohm went from a struggling player to at least a league average hitter. It seems pretty obvious that Kevin Long is a good hitter and can do a lot to improve performances. I can't say the same thing about Coles, considering Lane Thomas is the only one who has improved since he got here.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #34: May 26, 2023, 02:01:20 PM »
See my edit above. They're both making contact outside the zone more. Again, Coles wants players to swing early and more. This trend started with Ruiz coming to DC.

Fair enough, that is a good point. Though a quick check suggests that this is really only true for García. Ruiz's O-Contact% is basically in line with what he did last year.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #35: May 26, 2023, 02:12:55 PM »
The point with Garcia is you can't have a guy with a .280 OBP at the top of the lineup. Coles job was to teach him walk more. He's done that job. The rest is up to Garcia. He's still young and figuring things out. The fact he's making progress on being willing to walk is encouraging.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #36: May 26, 2023, 02:18:30 PM »
The point with Garcia is you can't have a guy with a .280 OBP at the top of the lineup. Coles job was to teach him walk more. He's done that job. The rest is up to Garcia. He's still young and figuring things out. The fact he's making progress on being willing to walk is encouraging.

I'm definitely encouraged by his ability/willingness to change his approach in the first place. Definitely needs to get better at pitch selection, but I think he's shown that's something he can be capable of.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #37: May 26, 2023, 02:22:12 PM »
call looked like a better hitter straight from cleveland last year than he has this year.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #38: May 26, 2023, 02:36:15 PM »
call looked like a better hitter straight from cleveland last year than he has this year.

At 28 Call is playing every day in the MLB for the first time. He's just a placeholder. Did Coles help him last year? Probably not. He's just not a MLB player.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #39: May 26, 2023, 02:51:37 PM »
Garcia won't be and should never be a top-of-the-lineup hitter. I don't care that he's walking a little bit more when he basically has 0 power now and is objectively a worse hitter than last year. His future best-case has always been a guy with a .300 OBP but with 20 HR and a .400+ slugging hitting 6-9th in the lineup. Now he's just a crappy hitter who walks a little more than before. His strengths have always been putting the ball in play and driving the ball and now he's just...not good at anything exciting not swinging-and-missing I guess?

The COLES EFFECT seems to be making everyone on the team a no-result slap hitter so maybe we shouldn't have such a bad coach as a hitting coach.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #40: May 26, 2023, 02:57:22 PM »
Garcia won't be and should never be a top-of-the-lineup hitter. I don't care that he's walking a little bit more when he basically has 0 power now and is objectively a worse hitter than last year. His future best-case has always been a guy with a .300 OBP but with 20 HR and a .400+ slugging hitting 6-9th in the lineup. Rougned Odor
what you mean

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #41: May 26, 2023, 03:20:09 PM »
Yeah basically. Odor is like a 90th percentile Garcia outcome and an easy take at this point.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #42: May 26, 2023, 04:04:17 PM »
Garcia just turned 23. He may or may not turn out to be a keeper. Coles has improved his approach. The Nationals with no players even close to be star hitters are 4th in BA and are scoring roughly the same runs as the high-priced Phillies with Long.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #43: May 26, 2023, 04:33:44 PM »
Garcia just turned 23. He may or may not turn out to be a keeper. Coles has improved his approach. The Nationals with no players even close to be star hitters are 4th in BA and are scoring roughly the same runs as the high-priced Phillies with Long.
Garcia's new approach is to be a slap hitter. Thats not an improvement. Like, not at all. That's actually a downgrade.

Offline welch

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #44: May 26, 2023, 05:37:56 PM »
Yeah, I don't care about batting average, I care about scoring runs. As this team has shown slapping singles everywhere leads to a high average but is not a recipe for scoring a lot of runs.

I'm not sure how much of the blame goes to Coles vs the current group of players just not being very good. I will say a lot of the young players appear to have better approaches at the plate this year, even if it hasn't resulted in better batted ball outcomes yet.

I care about average and want more a few more walks, doubles, and home runs. None of these players are, or were ever, power hitters. Until the Nats sign a slugger and lift one of the young power hitter from the minors, what is wrong with getting base hits?


Offline welch

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #45: May 26, 2023, 05:48:30 PM »
Only the Padres are scoring fewer runs per game than the Nats.

Would much rather have their offenses than what the Nats currently have.

Meneses, Garcia, Ruiz, Call, and Abrams have all regressed at the plate. This is not progress.

Sure, and since you are talking about imaginary things, I'll pick Roy Sievers, Harmon Killebrew, Bob Allison, and Jim Lemon from 1959 and imagine Killebrew hitting 42 homers, Sievers "only" 21 after some clown crushed his ankle at 1B, Bob Allison as Rookie of the Year with 30 homers, and Jim Lemon hitting merely 31 home runs. Ops of 815 - 870, except for Roy Sievers, injured, and only .788. But that is imagination.

But given these players, your real choice seems to be lots of singles...or more strikeouts and popups and groundouts.

So why spit on batting average because Candelario is not Killebrew and Brown is not Sievers?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #46: May 26, 2023, 05:58:06 PM »
Sure, and since you are talking about imaginary things, I'll pick Roy Sievers, Harmon Killebrew, Bob Allison, and Jim Lemon from 1959 and imagine Killebrew hitting 42 homers, Sievers "only" 21 after some clown crushed his ankle at 1B, Bob Allison as Rookie of the Year with 30 homers, and Jim Lemon hitting merely 31 home runs. Ops of 815 - 870, except for Roy Sievers, injured, and only .788. But that is imagination.

But given these players, your real choice seems to be lots of singles...or more strikeouts and popups and groundouts.

So why spit on batting average because Candelario is not Killebrew and Brown is not Sievers?

Our fourth best batting average has resulted in the 22nd best offense. Thats why we spit on batting average. Because hitting singles doesn't do crap.

Offline welch

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #47: May 26, 2023, 06:21:12 PM »
Our fourth best batting average has resulted in the 22nd best offense. Thats why we spit on batting average. Because hitting singles doesn't do crap.

Unlike strikeouts, and such by players who have never been power hitters? That was my point. Just how does any hitting coach turn a no-power guy into Killer?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #48: May 26, 2023, 06:21:57 PM »
Unlike strikeouts, and such by players who have never been power hitters? That was my point. Just how does any hitting coach turn a no-power guy into Killer?
Dunno. Probably the opposite of what Coles is doing, considering everyone is hitting for less power?

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Darnell Coles
« Reply #49: May 26, 2023, 06:30:07 PM »
Dunno. Probably the opposite of what Coles is doing, considering everyone is hitting for less power?

Abrahms and Ruiz's homer rates are up but as stated earlier there are no power guys on this team. They just need to do what they're capable of. With this group 22 in runs is better than expected.