Poll

Excluding Strasburg, what's the worst contract offer for one of the 2019 World Series winners?

Rendon
Scherzer
Soto
Turner

Author Topic: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals  (Read 3635 times)

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Offline PowerBoater69

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Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Topic Start: May 23, 2023, 01:38:27 PM »
The Nats milked every bit of value out of these guys and maybe got lucky only getting stuck with Stras.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #1: May 23, 2023, 01:50:22 PM »
"Got lucky"

I would absolutely have "overpaid" for Soto

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #2: May 23, 2023, 02:00:29 PM »
The Nats milked every bit of value out of these guys and maybe got lucky only getting stuck with Stras.
what do you mean by "worst"? the one that in hindsight would have been a massive overpay for production? or the one that was least fair at the time it was turned down?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #3: May 23, 2023, 02:02:33 PM »
what do you mean by "worst"? the one that in hindsight would have been a massive overpay for production? or the one that was least fair at the time it was turned down?
Yea, all of the others would have been exponentially better than the Strasburg one.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #4: May 23, 2023, 02:29:09 PM »
what do you mean by "worst"? the one that in hindsight would have been a massive overpay for production? or the one that was least fair at the time it was turned down?

I guess it is imprecise. The one that you are happiest that the Nats aren't going to have to pay out the balance, whether it is a real contract with another team or the Soto offer that didn't happen.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #5: May 23, 2023, 03:10:38 PM »
i went with rendon although i think he'll have respectable numbers going forward. scherzer i think might have the worst performance, but it isn't as long. trea and soto were pure low balls

Offline welch

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #6: May 23, 2023, 03:16:51 PM »
I guess it is imprecise. The one that you are happiest that the Nats aren't going to have to pay out the balance, whether it is a real contract with another team or the Soto offer that didn't happen.

In that case, the Rendon with the injuries and the foul temper. If we can have our Tony Two Bags, the mellow guy that he was, and without the injuries, it would not have hurt as much to watch the Nats the last few years.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #7: May 23, 2023, 03:57:56 PM »
The jury is out on Soto. The next year and a half will tell. Turner is not hitting right now but he'll probably come through in the end. Scherzer is a short deal so while he won't live up to that contract but it won't hurt as much. Rendon will never come close to living up to that money.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #8: May 23, 2023, 04:14:43 PM »
rendon isn't having that bad of a year.  the power isn't there, but a .415 obp is excellent. he's on track for 2.5 fWAR. the thing is, the first 3 years of his contract didn't come near the value of 3 years AAV ($105 million) due to the short season and the 2 mostly hurt yrs. i assume 2020 was pro-rated so the angels didn't lay out $35 million for it, and he was excellent that year, but he just didn't run up the expected value. 

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #9: May 23, 2023, 04:18:50 PM »
I think big money/long term deals for free agents are terrible allocation of money if you want a winning team.   Give me a team that spends to the lux tax limit on guys you don't have to sign until they're 40, and I don't care if we keep guys wanting 10-15 years after their team control years.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #10: May 23, 2023, 06:10:32 PM »
The jury is out on Soto. The next year and a half will tell. Turner is not hitting right now but he'll probably come through in the end.

I'd be much more worried about Turner than Soto.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #11: May 23, 2023, 06:29:27 PM »
I'd be much more worried about Turner than Soto.
Why?  He has a longer track record. I think he is a risk at the end of his contract as is Harper.

In any event he has a very good 2 months in 2021 after being traded and a great 2022.  People here want to cherry pick stats when guys are bad to make their points. And ignore stats that don’t.  Not sure but I think overall his offensive stats since being traded are better than Soto since he was traded. And plays a premium defensive position well.

Edit. Fangraphs had Turner at 6.3 WAR last year. Soto 3.8.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #12: May 23, 2023, 06:31:52 PM »
I think big money/long term deals for free agents are terrible allocation of money if you want a winning team.   Give me a team that spends to the lux tax limit on guys you don't have to sign until they're 40, and I don't care if we keep guys wanting 10-15 years after their team control years.
That’s a great strategy if you can keep developing minor league players to take their place as teams like the Astros and Dodgers do consistently. And the Braves now. If the Nats had not won in 2019 imagine how angry everyone would be about this.

Offline imref

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #13: May 23, 2023, 06:33:50 PM »
Lock up Abrams

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #14: May 23, 2023, 06:39:14 PM »
Lock up Abrams
Yup.  If they can do that would be smart.  As the Braves have done. With even better players.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #15: May 23, 2023, 07:07:25 PM »
Why?  He has a longer track record. I think he is a risk at the end of his contract as is Harper.

In any event he has a very good 2 months in 2021 after being traded and a great 2022.  People here want to cherry pick stats when guys are bad to make their points. And ignore stats that don’t.  Not sure but I think overall his offensive stats since being traded are better than Soto since he was traded. And plays a premium defensive position well.

Edit. Fangraphs had Turner at 6.3 WAR last year. Soto 3.8.

Because Soto is five years younger and because last year was Turner's best year while last year was Soto's worst.

The question is which contract would age the worst. I'm not necessarily arguing Turner's will be a bad deal, but if I had to choose between Turner's contract and Soto for what we offered him last year I take Soto 10 times out of 10 given both of their track records and age.

Edit: Also, Turner has been significantly worse than Soto offensively after both were traded (about 20 points of wRC+). The WAR discrepancy can be entirely attributed to positional adjustment and Soto being an absolute butcher in the field last year.

Offline catocony

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #16: May 24, 2023, 04:05:25 PM »
Seeing as Soto doesn't have a massive long term contract yet, he's not even eligible to be considered the worst contract.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #17: May 24, 2023, 08:43:05 PM »
Seeing as Soto doesn't have a massive long term contract yet, he's not even eligible to be considered the worst contract.

That's why the poll was worded "offer". No one is offering Soto what the Nats were going to pay him. Dodged a bullet there.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #18: May 24, 2023, 08:45:27 PM »
I'd be much more worried about Turner than Soto.

I would not want that Turner contract on the Nats. He's about to turn 30, maybe he's able to play shortstop and steal bases as he gets closer to 35, but not likely.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #19: May 24, 2023, 08:47:15 PM »
I think big money/long term deals for free agents are terrible allocation of money if you want a winning team.   Give me a team that spends to the lux tax limit on guys you don't have to sign until they're 40, and I don't care if we keep guys wanting 10-15 years after their team control years.

Right. Anyone not willing to sign a Ruiz deal gets traded 1-2 years before they hit free agency. Make it a known team policy, the players choose.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #20: May 24, 2023, 08:51:43 PM »
rendon isn't having that bad of a year.  the power isn't there, but a .415 obp is excellent. he's on track for 2.5 fWAR. the thing is, the first 3 years of his contract didn't come near the value of 3 years AAV ($105 million) due to the short season and the 2 mostly hurt yrs. i assume 2020 was pro-rated so the angels didn't lay out $35 million for it, and he was excellent that year, but he just didn't run up the expected value. 

Rendon's been hitting below his numbers with the Nats and way below his walk year numbers that got him that huge contract. But it would not be disaster level for the Angels if it wasn't for the injuries. Performance below expectations with something like 50% of games missed makes for a really bad contract situation with 3.5 years remaining.


Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #21: May 24, 2023, 08:53:51 PM »
i went with rendon although i think he'll have respectable numbers going forward. scherzer i think might have the worst performance, but it isn't as long. trea and soto were pure low balls

Scherzer is the least bad of the contracts mostly due to the short term. But he sure is getting paid a ton as he approaches 39 years old.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #22: May 24, 2023, 09:16:19 PM »
Rendon's been hitting below his numbers with the Nats and way below his walk year numbers that got him that huge contract. But it would not be disaster level for the Angels if it wasn't for the injuries. Performance below expectations with something like 50% of games missed makes for a really bad contract situation with 3.5 years remaining.


rendon was on the short list of  the best players in baseball (#9 by fWAR) from about 2014 - 2019, even counting his hurt 2015. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

his power is down, not sure why, but the obp is terrific this year (5th among players with 100 PAs). he's good, just not earning his contract, and will tail more with age. also, there's no way he was signing here

Offline blue911

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #23: May 25, 2023, 07:38:45 AM »
rendon was on the short list of  the best players in baseball (#9 by fWAR) from about 2014 - 2019, even counting his hurt 2015. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

his power is down, not sure why, but the obp is terrific this year (5th among players with 100 PAs). he's good, just not earning his contract, and will tail more with age. also, there's no way he was signing here

He had wrist surgery last season


Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Curse of the 2019 Washington Nationals
« Reply #24: May 25, 2023, 10:06:58 AM »
He had wrist surgery last season


splains the power drop. i remembered the hip, but i guess he had a lot of work done. typical hollywood.

he will not earn his contract, but he's still a heck of a hitter.