Nats Stats

[aspenbubba]

The Nats have eight 1-run games so far (i.e., won or lost the game by 1 run). Only team with more 1-run games  than the Nats is the Guardians with 12 (Angels are tied w/ eight). They haven't felt super competitive but theoretically we could be doing much better than we are with a bit more luck.

You mean Matt Adams?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

As stats go, I find it weird that the offense is 1st in the NL with fewest strikeouts while the pitching staff is 15th in the NL in strikeouts.

1st in MLB in lowest K% for the offense, and last in MLB in K/9.

Expanding a bit on the K/9, only Ward,  Gore, and Harvey have over 9 K/9 (Banda is right on 9). Other than Gore, the 4 starters are all between 5 and 6.65 K/9.  Finnegan, who has had a 9+ K/9 his first 3 years, now has a <5 while his BB rate is double last year.  Only 2 starters (Corbin, Williams) and 2 relievers have a BB/9 < 3.

[nobleisthyname]

1st in MLB in lowest K% for the offense, and last in MLB in K/9.

Expanding a bit on the K/9, only Ward,  Gore, and Harvey have over 9 K/9 (Banda is right on 9). Other than Gore, the 4 starters are all between 5 and 6.65 K/9.  Finnegan, who has had a 9+ K/9 his first 3 years, now has a <5 while his BB rate is double last year.  Only 2 starters (Corbin, Williams) and 2 relievers have a BB/9 < 3.

How worried should we be about Gray's drop in K%?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

How worried should we be about Gray's drop in K%?

Walks are down a bit, HR rate is down a bit, but the big thing is he's become a groundball pitcher with a better defense.  He's gone from 2 liners and flies for every groundball to 1:1.  Fewer flies, fewer dongs. Also, not hitting him as hard. Maybe that comes with a lot more cutters and sinkers than 4 seam fastballs. Also, guys are not laying off the out of the strike zone  stuff, and they are making contact. Weak contact.  I like this style of Gray.

[catocony]

Thompson's numbers are excellent at this point. 1.15 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .167 BA, 13 strikeouts and 1 - ONE - walk in 15 2/3rds innings. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Thompson's numbers are excellent at this point. 1.15 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .167 BA, 13 strikeouts and 1 - ONE - walk in 15 2/3rds innings. 

yes. Guy looks like he could take on a big role in the bullpen.  To be honest, if the Nats have to have an all star rep, it's either him or Harvey at this pace, I think. Only question right now is do you make him into a 1 inning, closer or primary setup, or do you use him as a multi-inning bridge to your primary relievers. 

[catocony]

Starter ERAs as of tonight (after the 3rd Twins game)

No. 5 Starter: Chad Kuhl 7.36 ERA
No. 4 Starter: Patrick Corbin 5.88
No. 3 Starter: Josiah Gray 3.74
No. 2 Starter: MacKenzie Gore 3.43
No. 1 Starter: Trevor Williams 3.38

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Starter ERAs as of tonight (after the 3rd Twins game)

No. 5 Starter: Chad Kuhl 7.36 ERA
No. 4 Starter: Patrick Corbin 5.88
No. 3 Starter: Josiah Gray 3.74
No. 2 Starter: MacKenzie Gore 3.43
No. 1 Starter: Trevor Williams 3.38

toss out the 1st time through the rotation and it's more impressive

[imref]

Corbin is becoming…..serviceable

[rbw5t]

Starter ERAs as of tonight (after the 3rd Twins game)

No. 5 Starter: Chad Kuhl 7.36 ERA
No. 4 Starter: Patrick Corbin 5.88
No. 3 Starter: Josiah Gray 3.74
No. 2 Starter: MacKenzie Gore 3.43
No. 1 Starter: Trevor Williams 3.38

Honestly, much better than expected so far. The glass half empty view is that it will get worse from here, and our record is already bad. If we’re not winning with 3 starters at sub 4 ERAs, the outlook is as bad as expected.

[Slateman]

Starter ERAs as of tonight (after the 3rd Twins game)

No. 5 Starter: Chad Kuhl 7.36 ERA
No. 4 Starter: Patrick Corbin 5.88
No. 3 Starter: Josiah Gray 3.74
No. 2 Starter: MacKenzie Gore 3.43
No. 1 Starter: Trevor Williams 3.38

If that holds through the season, there would be a legit conversation about spending big in the offseason.

Think of how different this team looks with Nola, Urias, or Snell in the rotation, and one of Hoskins/Chapman/Pederson

[Natsinpwc]

If that holds through the season, there would be a legit conversation about spending big in the offseason.

Think of how different this team looks with Nola, Urias, or Snell in the rotation, and one of Hoskins/Chapman/Pederson

You have your title. They’re not spending.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It would have been a lot more impressive  and interesting had it been Cavalli instead of Kuhl. Williams, Gray, and Gore are sub-4 since 4/7.

[zimm_da_kid]

Have to imagine Espino and Irvin get shots at the #5 spot soon

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Have to imagine Espino and Irvin get shots at the #5 spot soon

the problem is neither of them are doing well, either. I don't think they want to force Adon into the rotation again at this point, but he's the only one who is doing OK in Rochester.  Peralta went 5 innings his last start (4/21), so maybe he gets another start or two before Kuhl gets DFA's to clear a spot for Peralta.

TBH, down a level, Rutledge has had 3 good starts and has gone 6 innings in his last one.  It's premature, but he's on the 40 man roster.  Maybe give Peralta first dibs, then think about Irvin or Rutledge depending on how they are going.

I know I'm sounding like you, but bumping Rutledge to AAA once he gets another 2-3 starts in Harrisburg ought to be on the table. BBs are a little high and he's a touch below 9 K/9, but he seems to be handling his level. 

[nfotiu]

At 5.2 IP per start, we're right about average, and right at the middle of the pack.  Starter ERA is 19th in MLB.   Relief ERA is 14th.  All our offensive stats are terrible.

On a side note, how the heck are the Marlins 12-11 with a -34 run differential.   We score more runs than them and give up less.

[IanRubbish]

Re: the Marlins, their offense might be worse than ours. 

Really not clear why the Nats are still going 1-2 every three games like they have since the mid 21 sell off.  Run differential of just under -1 per game is a big improvement of over -1.5 last year.

[imref]

Re: the Marlins, their offense might be worse than ours. 

Really not clear why the Nats are still going 1-2 every three games like they have since the mid 21 sell off.  Run differential of just under -1 per game is a big improvement of over -1.5 last year.

In most cases, it is because the other teams are scoring more runs than we are.

[catocony]

Just a lot of close games.  Competitive games that take 2.5 hours are always well received.  If you win 4-3 or lose 3-2, they're all decent entertainment.  Losing by one run can be infuriating, but it's better than blowouts. 

[nobleisthyname]

We have a better run differential than 9 other teams, including the Padres, and are basically tied with the Phillies.

[IanRubbish]

Opponent OPS now .731 vs. .791 last year, 19th out of 30 vs. 30th out of 30 last year

Team OPS .661 vs. .688 last year, 27th out of 30 vs. 22nd out of 30 last year

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Opponent OPS now .731 vs. .791 last year, 19th out of 30 vs. 30th out of 30 last year

Team OPS .661 vs. .688 last year, 27th out of 30 vs. 22nd out of 30 last year

no Soto no Bell no OPS.

[Mattionals]

no Soto no Bell no OPS.

It's weird that Robles and Ruiz both have better OPS than Soto and Bell right now.

[Senatorswin]

It's weird that Robles and Ruiz both have better OPS than Soto and Bell right now.

Wow, who could of seen that coming.

[imref]

Looks like we didn't lose much letting Luke Voit walk:

Voit: .268 / .302 / .317 0 HRs
Smith: .234 / .330 / .234 0 HRs

If we had some decent production from 1B maybe we might have another win or two.