How will the 2024 draft work?

[welch]

Jim Callis describes the 2024 draft process, making it as clear as mud. As best I can understand him, a team like the Nationals cannot get better than the tenth pick, no matter how bad the record, the season after they get a lottery pick unless they receive revenue-sharing.

Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba#:~:text=The%20Draft%20will%20remain%20at,reverse%20order%20of%20winning%20percentage.

[imref]

i thought we can draft no higher than 7th as we aren't getting revenue sharing?

[Natsinpwc]

That’s what I thought. But this reads different.

[welch]

David Aldridge reads the draft rules the way I thought, and feared:

However, if things go south on the field again this year for Washington and it again brings up the rear in the standings, the Nats won’t be eligible to pick in the top 10 of the 2024 draft. Along with the implementation of the lottery, teams designated as “large market” clubs, like the Nationals, that are not revenue-sharing teams are now prohibited from having lottery picks in consecutive years. Since Washington took Elijah Green fifth overall in 2022, and is picking second in ’23, it can’t have a top-10 pick in ’24, no matter its record this season.

That's a snip from his article in The Athletic comparing Nats rebuild to what the tankers from Baltimore did.

https://theathletic.com/4425464/2023/04/19/nationals-orioles-start-to-turn/

[nobleisthyname]

David Aldridge reads the draft rules the way I thought, and feared:

That's a snip from his article in The Athletic comparing Nats rebuild to what the tankers from Baltimore did.

https://theathletic.com/4425464/2023/04/19/nationals-orioles-start-to-turn/

I thought the lottery picks were only 1-6? Why would we not be able to pick 7th if we had the worst record again?

[Natsinpwc]

Aldridge is an NBA guy. Don’t think he understands.

[welch]

What surprised, and puzzled me, in Jim Callis's explanation on MLB.com: "Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall."

Nats would be ineligible for the lottery in 2024 as they will have been in the lottery this year. It sounds like a small-market team can get a lottery pick two seasons in a row, but that a large-market team, like the Nats, cannot.

[Natsinpwc]

Baseball America seems like a legit site. They say the lottery is picks 1-6. So looks to me that Nats could get 7. I suppose if a team behind them moves up they would pick lower than 7?

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/?amphtml

[Elvir Ovcina]

The whole point of the lottery is that the discussion we're having shouldn't be happening because teams shouldn't suck that bad for years at a time. 

On that basis as a fan, take 7 or 10, suck it up, and accept that your ownership is throwing turds at you and calling them bananas.

[Natsinpwc]

It’s weak for Nats fans to complain about the new lottery rules when tanking produced a nucleus of Strasburg, Harper and Rendon for the 2010 decade teams. In retrospect it’s surprising the league did not do this after the back to back number one picks the team had.

[nobleisthyname]

It’s weak for Nats fans to complain about the new lottery rules when tanking produced a nucleus of Strasburg, Harper and Rendon for the 2010 decade teams. In retrospect it’s surprising the league did not do this after the back to back number one picks the team had.

To be fair, Rendon was a 6th overall pick IIRC. That's definitely entering crapshoot territory for MLB drafts.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

It’s weak for Nats fans to complain about the new lottery rules when tanking produced a nucleus of Strasburg, Harper and Rendon for the 2010 decade teams. In retrospect it’s surprising the league did not do this after the back to back number one picks the team had.

I mean, we had absolutely no farm system and they put a moron in charge in Jim Bowden. The league had also used the Expos as their personal farm team. What other options were there? No one would sign here.

[HalfSmokes]

I mean, we had absolutely no farm system and they put a moron in charge in Jim Bowden. The league had also used the Expos as their personal farm team. What other options were there? No one would sign here.

And now we’re back to where we started

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

And now we’re back to where we started

I make no excuses for what they did this time. They chose to go this route and there was a large group of this fanbase cheering it on.

[Slateman]

Heres how it will go. Rizzo will draft Andrew Dutkanych IV. Two years after that, Andrew Dutkanych will miss half a season due to odd injuries. The next year, he'll lose about 5 mph on his fastball, get called up anyway, struggle, and get sent back down. That offseason, Rizzo will trade him and like two other pitchers to get some slap hitting corner OFer.

Any questions?

[Natsinpwc]

Heres how it will go. Rizzo will draft Andrew Dutkanych IV. Two years after that, Andrew Dutkanych will miss half a season due to odd injuries. The next year, he'll lose about 5 mph on his fastball, get called up anyway, struggle, and get sent back down. That offseason, Rizzo will trade him and like two other pitchers to get some slap hitting corner OFer.

Any questions?

Do they win a title with the slap hitting OF?

[Slateman]

Do they win a title with the slap hitting OF?

No. LAC.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Heres how it will go. Rizzo will draft Andrew Dutkanych IV. Two years after that, Andrew Dutkanych will miss half a season due to odd injuries. The next year, he'll lose about 5 mph on his fastball, get called up anyway, struggle, and get sent back down. That offseason, Rizzo will trade him and like two other pitchers to get some slap hitting corner OFer.

Any questions?

Why not just sign Ross Detwiler and save the signing bonus for Buster Kieboom, who can provide false hope by hitting everything up through AAA and then beginning the injury progression?

Leave aside the fact that Buster Kieboom isn't real because it doesn't matter that much.