Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade

[JCA-CrystalCity]

IanRubbish's idea of shifting to using openers may be on the table. discussing roles in the bullpen, Dougherty notes that Erasmo now primarily looks like a 1 inning guy they would use in the 6th or 7th with a lead, rather than as a multi-inning guy to be used when behind. He also notes that that has been Thompson's and Ward's role now, with Hobie Harris another possible multi-inning guy.  Regarding Thompson:

Thompson, 25, looked like a possible back-end reliever when he arrived in the July 2021 trade for Daniel Hudson. But toward the end of last season, Martinez talked about stretching him out and maybe even using him as an opener. The Nationals, it should be noted, have used a traditional opener just once since Martinez arrived in 2018. But through six games, Thompson has already logged two- and three-inning appearances.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/06/nationals-analysis-early-season/

[imref]

Gray

[Slateman]

IanRubbish's idea of shifting to using openers may be on the table. discussing roles in the bullpen, Dougherty notes that Erasmo now primarily looks like a 1 inning guy they would use in the 6th or 7th with a lead, rather than as a multi-inning guy to be used when behind. He also notes that that has been Thompson's and Ward's role now, with Hobie Harris another possible multi-inning guy.  Regarding Thompson:https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/06/nationals-analysis-early-season/

I absolutely hate that idea. Thompson has high leverage reliever written all over him. He sits 95, he has a heavy sinker that can induce bad contact, and his slider is a punch out pitch.

[welch]

Kuhl has been so bad that he makes Corbin look respectable, almost. This sounds like the Nats will dump Kuhl, replacing him with one of the AAA starters, the rotation-fillers from last season.

And along with questions about the secondary relievers, Saturday made it fair to ask how long Kuhl’s leash should be in the rotation. The Nationals will probably need a spot starter in the middle of next week, meaning they could bring up Cory Abbott or Jake Irvin to face the Chicago Cubs. Then perhaps one of them makes a case to stick beyond a single appearance.

Jesse D.:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/29/nationals-pirates-doubleheader/

[aspenbubba]

Kuhl has been so bad that he makes Corbin look respectable, almost. This sounds like the Nats will dump Kuhl, replacing him with one of the AAA starters, the rotation-fillers from last season.

Jesse D.:




https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/29/nationals-pirates-doubleheader/

You must have read my post on the game day thread. 😂

[catocony]

Banda just got released, and I'm sure that by July we won't even remember him.  I expect Kuhl to get maybe sent to the bullpen if not DFA'ed. 

As far as a replacement for Kuhl if he gets dumped, there isn't much at Rochester to help. 

[imref]

Via talknats:  starter ERAs

No. 5 Starter: Chad Kuhl 9.41 ERA
No. 4 Starter: Patrick Corbin 5.74
No. 3 Starter: Trevor Williams 4.10
No. 2 Starter: MacKenzie Gore 3.00
No. 1 Starter: Josiah Gray 2.67

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Via talknats:  starter ERAs

even better since the first time through the rotation

[rileyn]

It's such a shame Cavalli got hurt.  Watching Kuhl is a waste of time.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Since 4/7, the Nats have gone through the rotation 4 times.  the numbers:

Gray: 22.2 IP, 8.34 K/9, 3.73 BB/9, ERA 1.59, FIP 3.69
Gore: 22.1 IP, 12.05 K/9, 4.98 BB/9, ERA 3.32, FIP 3.57
Williams: 21.1 IP, 5.91 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, ERA 3.80, FIP 4.13
Corbin: 22.1 IP, 6.04 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, ERA 4.84, FIP 5.17
Kuhl: 17.0 IP, 7.41 K/9, 7.94 BB/9, ERA 10.06, FIP 7.62

Gray - helped by suppressing homers a lot and a ridiculously high strand rate of 89.8%
Gore -cut the BBs. High HR/FB rate hasn't hurt so much because he's 50% GBs.
Williams - low walk rate has helped.
Corbin - Basic difference between him and Williams is HR/FB. Williams is 7.1%, Corbin 16.7%. Corbin throws more GBs and gets more pop ups, they are hit roughly the same in terms of direction.  Launch angle and hard hit% per Statcast suggests Corbin is more often harder hit and a lower launch angle (10.6% vs. 14.8%).
Kuhl? Not much to say positive about the on-field performance so far.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

IL due to injuring his big toe in his last start.

[imref]

couldn't be worse than Kuhl, right? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/julio-teheran-opts-out-of-padres-deal.html

[Senatorswin]

couldn't be worse than Kuhl, right? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/julio-teheran-opts-out-of-padres-deal.html

Still only 32.

[imref]

Irvin coming up

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Irvin coming up

[imref]

the last Nat to win his pitching debut: Stephen Strasburg.

we're due!

[welch]

The starters are becoming respectable. Maybe, just maybe, Rizzo is right to build his teams around starting pitching.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

We are grading Corbin on the Corbin curve (slider?). He's giving the Nats 5-6 innings after opening day, which is something, but he's had only 2 quality starts.  Today might be an important start to see if he can bounce back a bit after his start against the Pirates.

[catocony]

Irvin didn't get the win, but the Nats did win the game and I think he pitched pretty well.  I think that's the first time I've seen a pitcher bean a batter with their very first big league pitch, but whatever works 

[imref]

Davey says Irvin will start again next week.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/05/08/nationals-jake-irvin/

Nice article on how Irvin was first spotted by a guy who looked to line up kids with colleges and then by Oklahoma.  Was a shortstop who pitched a little. DEveloped his curve on his own just playing around.  Wasn't trying for a scholarship until the scout sees his curve and says, ya, that'll do.  Ok coach sees him in show case, not hyped, then he breaks out the curve for the first hitter he faces.  He wasn't even throwing 90 on his fastball but the build was projectable. 

And here he is, blowing away SF with the curve

[welch]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/05/08/nationals-jake-irvin/

Nice article on how Irvin was first spotted by a guy who looked to line up kids with colleges and then by Oklahoma.  Was a shortstop who pitched a little. DEveloped his curve on his own just playing around.  Wasn't trying for a scholarship until the scout sees his curve and says, ya, that'll do.  Ok coach sees him in show case, not hyped, then he breaks out the curve for the first hitter he faces.  He wasn't even throwing 90 on his fastball but the build was projectable. 

And here he is, blowing away SF with the curve

The article says that Irvin used to throw a curve when playing SS just to tease the 1B. During practice, of course. That's a fair bit of control to field a grounder and then throw a curve for a strike to first.

[zimm_da_kid]

Gotta imagine we try and trade Williams at the deadline.  If he can keep the ERA below 4 and post metrics that back it up, we could probably get at least one of an organization's top 10 prospects in exchange for his cheap control.

Then we can rock a Corbin, Gray, Gore, Irvin, Rutledge rotation.

[imref]

Gotta imagine we try and trade Williams at the deadline.  If he can keep the ERA below 4 and post metrics that back it up, we could probably get at least one of an organization's top 10 prospects in exchange for his cheap control.

Then we can rock a Corbin, Gray, Gore, Irvin, Rutledge rotation.

Why would we trade a piece of our rotation when we're making a playoff push?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I found Davey's pre-game talk interesting. he said kuhl threw 60 pitches in a simulated game. he said pretty much that Irvin is guaranteed 1 more start unless he's hurting, but it's not a lock yet that kuhl doesn't get his slot back. team wants to see him throw and sit 5 times to simulate 5 innings, 75 pitches, before figuring out what to do.  Irvin has some limitations still for health, so they may want to manage his workload.