https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-16-30/I've been following this series on FG, where various writers go through WAR projections for various positions by allocating player time and their projected stats. Not surprising that the Nats are typically near the bottom at every position group, sometimes getting as high as 23rd or so. That said, the projected starting pitching staff is one of the few groups that rate out at the bottom, #30, behind Colorado in #29 and a few AL teams. The Dead Cat aspect is that this staff projects out better than last year's worst projection by more than a win, and significantly better than the 2022 rotation, which finished at -1.1 fWAR. Dead Cat Bounce, indeed.
I can't quibble too much with the write up:
The Nats will get a good look at their future this year with Gray entering his second season with the team and Gore ready to debut for them after coming over in the Juan Soto deal. Corbin hasn’t been right since 2019, with a 5.82 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his last 390 innings. His 4.46 SIERA offers a modicum of hope, but he is just far too hittable (1.7 HR/9, 11.2 H/9) to maximize his 12% K-BB rate, which deserves better than a near-6.00 ERA. Kuhl and Williams reunite after their time together in Pittsburgh. They will look to hold down the fort as younger arms work through the system. There isn’t much on the horizon, especially with Cade Cavalli felled by a UCL tear this spring and out for the year with Tommy John surgery. Strasburg may have thrown his last big league pitch as he deals with complications returning from thoracic outlet syndrome.
emphasis added.
In terms of individual pitchers, I can't see much that makes me say "no way." They have Gore as the best talent among the living but only have him at 126 innings and a 4.25 ERA. Gray they have at a heavier workload (162 IP) but a higher ERA (4.74). They may be too kind of Corbin (4.77 ERA). As for other contributors, they have numbers for Adon, Irvin, Espino, Stras and Tetrault, with only Adon projected for more than 50 starter innings.
That said, in thinking about the bolded language, what could be the surprise upside in the minors to help in 2023? I don't see much on the projected AAA and AA rosters. Irvin, perhaps? I think maybe a healthy Cole Henry will put up numbers, but I don't see him as strong enough to be pushed into the rotation even with a good recovery from TOS. The best off-the-list guy in the short term might be Rutledge, who at least got to 20 starts and 97 innings last year, and has crazy stuff. Could he move a couple of levels if healthy and contribute at the end of the year? Andry Lara seems like even more of a stretch.
