Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade

[Smithian]

Strasburg's arm is a Greek tragedy. Cavalli's elbow blew up. Lee and Tetreault were dropped from the roster. Joan Adon put up worse numbers than Corbin. Gore has to be treated with kid gloves. It's grim

Who is everyone's prediction on the first five Nationals pitchers to start a game?

Gore
Corbin
Gray
Williams
Kuhl

JCA edit - Added description to title

[IanRubbish]

Strasburg's arm is a Greek tragedy. Cavalli's elbow blew up. Lee and Tetreault were dropped from the roster. Joan Adon put up worse numbers than Corbin. Gore has to be treated with kid gloves. It's grim

Who is everyone's prediction on the first five Nationals pitchers to start a game?

Gray
Corbin
Gray
Williams
Kuhl

I'm guessing you meant Gore instead of Gray twice but I think there'll be a lot of rotation movement, but your five might be the first five.  If Jackson Rutledge doesn't have a 5 ERA in the minors or an injury he could be called up quickly.

[NatsAllThe Way]

If we have to start Gray 40% of games we'll be a 120 loss team and Gray will require TJS in June.  Frak this team.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Corbin, Gray, Gore, Williams, and Kuhl, barring injury, are the initial five.

Camerato's latest opening day 26 has Alex Colome rather than Espino on it, along with Ferrer.  Espino is a bit of a surprise.  I don't know if that's a team control thing so he can start in the minors, but otherwise I thought he would be a long guy / spot starter / rotation replacement.  Erasmo Ramirez I guess is the emergency starter in that case, or perhaps Ward.

I'd say Abbott is a potential 6th guy stretched out in the minors.  I think once the roster starts to get a little looser with 60 day ILs, guys like Tetrault will work his way back into consideration.

As for Rutledge, I think another year of managed workload, jump from 97 IP to maybe 130 would be the target.  Get him 25-30 starts?  If he is on that pace and healthy, then as IanRubbish suggests, he's a rotation add maybe 2d half of the year, replacing Kuhl or an injured guy. Irvin is also in the mix.

[imref]

If we have to start Gray 40% of games we'll be a 120 loss team and Gray will require TJS in June.  Frak this team.

Yeah, Gray's arm won't last starting 2 out of every 5 games.

Gore, Gray, Corbin, Williams, and Kuhl seem to be the most likely rotation candidates with Adon and Abbott next in line. They want to keep Espino as the long reliever guy.  They are probably going to need several long-reliever guys.

Paging Anibal Sanchez!

[Smithian]

I'm guessing you meant Gore instead of Gray twice but I think there'll be a lot of rotation movement, but your five might be the first five.  If Jackson Rutledge doesn't have a 5 ERA in the minors or an injury he could be called up quickly.

If we have to start Gray 40% of games we'll be a 120 loss team and Gray will require TJS in June.  Frak this team.

Okay, made the fix since you two don't think pitching him every couple days is good for him or the team.

[Smithian]

Corbin, Gray, Gore, Williams, and Kuhl, barring injury, are the initial five.

Camerato's latest opening day 26 has Alex Colome rather than Espino on it, along with Ferrer.  Espino is a bit of a surprise.  I don't know if that's a team control thing so he can start in the minors, but otherwise I thought he would be a long guy / spot starter / rotation replacement.  Erasmo Ramirez I guess is the emergency starter in that case, or perhaps Ward.

I'd say Abbott is a potential 6th guy stretched out in the minors.  I think once the roster starts to get a little looser with 60 day ILs, guys like Tetrault will work his way back into consideration.

As for Rutledge, I think another year of managed workload, jump from 97 IP to maybe 130 would be the target.  Get him 25-30 starts?  If he is on that pace and healthy, then as IanRubbish suggests, he's a rotation add maybe 2d half of the year, replacing Kuhl or an injured guy. Irvin is also in the mix.

I actually liked last year that they let guys like Aaron Sanchez, Cory Abbott, and Josh Rogers get playing time. Didn't go well often, but Cory Abbott looked useful for stretches. I wouldn't hate if he was first man up this season.

I'm just down on the pitching in this system. I'm not hopefully of any rookie pitcher this year really contributing. I have more hope that some random pitcher on waivers may come through and contribute. Surely we can find our own Austin Voth success story.

[nfotiu]

There's only been 40-45 starting pitchers who've hit the qualified innings requirement for ERA, the last few years.   Starting pitchers that can go at least 5 every 5 days for a season are going extinct.   I hate everything about it, but we just need a bullpen and AAA team filled with mid-tier fireballers that we can go a few innings a game.   

Rizzo doesn't see it that way.  I hate the notion of bullpenning, but it seems the only near term path to being somewhat competitive.

[catocony]

Here's hoping that the slightly deader ball used the last couple of seasons remains and the pitch clock gives the pitcher the advantage it should.  It sounds counterintuitive but I think the clock is a real benefit to pitchers.  Keeps them in a groove and from thinking too much, and prevents the batters from the human rain delay they like to turn into.

[nobleisthyname]

So which will be better in 2023, the hitting or the pitching? Last year the pitching was significantly worse but before Cavalli went down and considering the departure of Soto and Bell I thought that might switch this season. Now I'm less sure.

[imref]

So which will be better in 2023, the hitting or the pitching? Last year the pitching was significantly worse but before Cavalli went down and considering the departure of Soto and Bell I thought that might switch this season. Now I'm less sure.

both are huge crapshoots. It's impossible to know if they will both be just bad, or historically bad.

[imref]

Zuck on some reason for hope for Kuhl:

Kuhl, a 30-year-old right-hander in camp on a minor league deal, has made one Grapefruit League start this spring, tossing 2 1/3 scoreless innings March 5 against the Tigers. He’s also made three relief appearances, including a three-inning stint Monday against the Astros.

A veteran of six big league seasons, the first five of which came with the Pirates, Kuhl owns a career 31-41 record, 4.74 ERA and 1.451 WHIP. He missed the entire 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery but returned healthy in 2020. The Delaware native joined the Rockies last year and made 27 starts, going 6-11 with a 5.72 ERA that was more than a run higher than his career mark to that point.

The final numbers don’t tell the full story of Kuhl’s 2022 season. Through his first 10 starts, he was 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA. Then over his final 17 starts – with a brief stint on the injured list due to a strained hip flexor – he was 2-9 with a 7.37 ERA, inflating his season totals.

The Nationals looked at Kuhl’s peripheral stats, taking into account the effect of pitching at altitude at Coors Field, and saw reason to believe he was due for some improvement. Relying more on a four-seam fastball and slider in Pittsburgh, he decreased his usage of both pitches in Colorado and instead threw more sinkers. Opponents wound up crushing that pitch to the tune of a .367 batting average and .599 slugging percentage.

“His breaking ball’s better now, because he’s not in Colorado,” Martinez said. “That’s going to help him out. He’s really working on a changeup; he threw a couple really good ones. And he’s got a mix where he can throw a two-seamer and a four-seamer, which we talked about when we got him here. He’s used both, and it’s so far been pretty effective.”

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Zuck on some reason for hope for Kuhl:

I almost don't care how Kuhl does. I'd like him to just pitch mostly 5 inning starts, 3 runs, not much worse. I'd be happy with that. He's just a guy who can be replaced if there's an interesting prospect who we want to try (Rutledge, Irvin maybe). Just need him to hold his own.

[Section214]

I almost don't care how Kuhl does. I'd like him to just pitch mostly 5 inning starts, 3 runs, not much worse. I'd be happy with that. He's just a guy who can be replaced if there's an interesting prospect who we want to try (Rutledge, Irvin maybe). Just need him to hold his own.

All we can really ask for out of the non Gore/Gray members of the rotation is consistently getting into innings 5-7 with 1-4 runs on the board. The bullpen is good enough to keep games close, we just can't have every other game being a "well, gotta go to the pen" after 2 1/3 IP.

[Elvir Ovcina]

So which will be better in 2023, the hitting or the pitching? Last year the pitching was significantly worse but before Cavalli went down and considering the departure of Soto and Bell I thought that might switch this season. Now I'm less sure.

The pitching, just because the starters will go short most games and the bullpen is less terrible than either the starters or the hitters.  The hitters will suck crap through a straw for 9 every day.

[imref]

might be time to start worrying about Gore. Apparently Patrick Corbin got to him.

[Natsinpwc]

might be time to start worrying about Gore. Apparently Patrick Corbin got to him.

Start worrying?  We’ve been worrying all along. To be fair it sounded on the radio that Dickerson misplayed one in LF that hurt.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What ratio of brilliance to clunkers in his starts would make people happy with Gore?  Would we be happy with 25 starts and 12 of 5 innings, 2 runs or less?

[imref]

What ratio of brilliance to clunkers in his starts would make people happy with Gore?  Would we be happy with 25 starts and 12 of 5 innings, 2 runs or less?

25 starts, around a 4.00 ERA.

[Slateman]

All we can really ask for out of the non Gore/Gray members of the rotation is consistently getting into innings 5-7 with 1-4 runs on the board. The bullpen is good enough to keep games close, we just can't have every other game being a "well, gotta go to the pen" after 2 1/3 IP.

Uh ....that's what we're asking of Gray and Gore. If the other three starters do that, this is a wild card team

[Slateman]

What ratio of brilliance to clunkers in his starts would make people happy with Gore?  Would we be happy with 25 starts and 12 of 5 innings, 2 runs or less?

If Gore can get through a season healthy, thats a win. And maybe show some development towards the end of the season.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Regarding the Dead Cat Bounce Brigade: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/03/20/nationals-rotation-spring-training/

According to FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe, the 2022 rotation managed the fewest Wins Above Replacement (minus-1.1) by any American League or National League team since 1901. Limiting the scope to last season, the Nationals’ total was significantly lower than the next-worst club (the Oakland Athletics at 3.5). WAR aims to summarize total contributions to a club in one statistic. It’s not a perfect measurement, but it is good for cross-league and historical comparisons — and in this case, a team’s lot with its starting pitchers.

Jaffe predicts the Nationals’ rotation will have the second-best year-to-year improvement, mostly because there’s nowhere to go but up.
...
Last April, the Nationals’ Opening Day rotation was Corbin, Gray, Erick Fedde, Joan Adon and Aníbal Sánchez, who injured his neck on the plane ride from spring training and was quickly replaced by Josh Rogers. Adon was sent down in June with a 1-11 record and a 6.97 ERA. Fedde was non-tendered and is now pitching in South Korea. Sánchez, 39, is a free agent if he wants to keep pitching. Corbin and Gray finished in the bottom 10 in ERA among pitchers who threw at least 130 innings.

[Slateman]

Yea, thats awful optimistic

[hotshot]

Are Gore's only issues his ability to stay healthy, and pitch location? Or, is there a laundry list of other things he needs to work on? Like ...

I mean, as a Padres prospect, I recall reading somewhere that his ceiling could be Cole Hamels; that he already possessed "3 out of 4 plus pitches," misses bats with a great fastball, nice vertical break, etc. 

[Slateman]

Are Gore's only issues his ability to stay healthy, and pitch location? Or, is there a laundry list of other things he needs to work on? Like ...

I mean, as a Padres prospect, I recall reading somewhere that his ceiling could be Cole Hamels; that he already possessed "3 out of 4 plus pitches," misses bats with a great fastball, nice vertical break, etc. 

Only?