Author Topic: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade  (Read 5182 times)

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Online imref

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #25: March 20, 2023, 06:09:14 PM »
Are Gore's only issues his ability to stay healthy, and pitch location? Or, is there a laundry list of other things he needs to work on? Like ...

I mean, as a Padres prospect, I recall reading somewhere that his ceiling could be Cole Hamels; that he already possessed "3 out of 4 plus pitches," misses bats with a great fastball, nice vertical break, etc. 

well, he's a third overall pick. And when he was healthy he was dominant. But he didn't get enough starts to know if that was a fluke or if he really was that good. He was kind of a mixed bag in the minors.




Online welch

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #26: March 20, 2023, 06:16:42 PM »
Corbin was bad in 2020, worse in 2021, and worse than that in 2022. No reason to think that he will be mediocre -- average -- in 2023. Put him in the bullpen.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #27: March 20, 2023, 06:41:50 PM »
Corbin was bad in 2020, worse in 2021, and worse than that in 2022. No reason to think that he will be mediocre -- average -- in 2023. Put him in the bullpen.
The Lerners want to hold their investment until it bounces back. May be a penny stock soon.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #28: March 20, 2023, 07:41:36 PM »
Well, I doubt anyone asked for a 2007 nostalgia tour, but it looks like we're getting one anyway.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #29: March 20, 2023, 07:52:37 PM »
So is a dead cat bounce too positive? I mean worst since 1901 in 2022. Is it a target to beat?

Online Slateman

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #30: March 20, 2023, 08:15:16 PM »
So is a dead cat bounce too positive? I mean worst since 1901 in 2022. Is it a target to beat?

Success will not be measured by traditional stats. This season is.all about the development of the core players. Khul and Williams being better than Espino and Sanchez is irrelevant. This is still a 97+ loss team. What marks positive would be of Gray and Gore are able to pitch 4.50 ERA ball or better in August and September. If Abrams and Garcia can be 100 wRC+ hitters the last two months of the season.

Online imref

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #31: March 21, 2023, 09:55:54 AM »
Here's your annual "Corbin is fixed" story.

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/patrick-corbin-sharp-in-spring-start-vs-mets

Seems like he has earned the opening day starter slot though.

Online imref

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #32: March 21, 2023, 01:39:27 PM »
I'm going to jinx him since he's pitching now, but Josiah Gray has been dare I say....ace like this spring?

Online imref

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #33: March 22, 2023, 03:23:24 PM »
Last four ST starts:

C. Kuhl 5.0 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 5 K
P. Corbin 6.0 IP 5 H 1 ER 0 BB 5 K
J. Gray 6.0 IP 4 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K
M. Gore 6.0 IP 2 H 0 ER 1 BB 8 K

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #34: March 22, 2023, 04:43:17 PM »
those BBs are nice. I haven't paid that much attention to the D, but Abrams seems to be having a good camp and Vargas and Downs seem like nice fielders. A quick and dirty I use for D is to look at BABIP allowed in reverse order to get a feel for the numbers not captured by the three true outcomes. I hope that the D improves enough to make a pitch to contact approach work for these guys. Maybe Gore, of all of them, can be a 10+ K/9 guy, too. Then it just leaves the dinger issue ...

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #35: March 22, 2023, 09:00:58 PM »
So is a dead cat bounce too positive? I mean worst since 1901 in 2022. Is it a target to beat?

I think my 2007 analogy works in more ways than one.

The starting pitching in 2006 was so terrible that the '07 squad had a dead cat bounce even though the pitching staff was a weird hodge podge of scrap heap pickups, talented yet injury prone pitchers squeezing whatever juice was left in the berry (think Shawn Hill), and mediocre former prospects treading water (e.g. Bergmann, Chico).  On paper, the '07 squad kept inspiring the words "historically bad" and yet they were just run-of-the-mill bad by season's end.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #36: March 23, 2023, 12:29:38 PM »
Last four ST starts:

C. Kuhl 5.0 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 5 K
P. Corbin 6.0 IP 5 H 1 ER 0 BB 5 K
J. Gray 6.0 IP 4 H 0 ER 0 BB 5 K
M. Gore 6.0 IP 2 H 0 ER 1 BB 8 K



Offline catocony

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #37: March 24, 2023, 07:03:22 PM »
I think my 2007 analogy works in more ways than one.

The starting pitching in 2006 was so terrible that the '07 squad had a dead cat bounce even though the pitching staff was a weird hodge podge of scrap heap pickups, talented yet injury prone pitchers squeezing whatever juice was left in the berry (think Shawn Hill), and mediocre former prospects treading water (e.g. Bergmann, Chico).  On paper, the '07 squad kept inspiring the words "historically bad" and yet they were just run-of-the-mill bad by season's end.

I fondly remember Matt Chico chucking a fastball 90 degrees off target over the dugout and into the stands.  That was so bad it wasn't even a wild pitch since it didn't get anywhere close to the plate.

Online welch

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #38: March 25, 2023, 12:39:34 PM »
I fondly remember Matt Chico chucking a fastball 90 degrees off target over the dugout and into the stands.  That was so bad it wasn't even a wild pitch since it didn't get anywhere close to the plate.

I remember the stories that the Nats had changed Chico's style, freeing him to be again the pitcher he had been in high school / college / minors. "This time, he's fixed".

For all that, I am looking forward to watching Gray and Gore, plus minor league pitchers like Cole Henry, Jackson Rutledge, and Jake Bennett. Maybe Seth Shuman, also.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #39: March 25, 2023, 02:11:02 PM »
I remember the stories that the Nats had changed Chico's style, freeing him to be again the pitcher he had been in high school / college / minors. "This time, he's fixed".

I remember the days of Garrett Mock, Chico, Jason Bergmann, Collin Balester, Shairon Martis, and Ross Detwiler being our big time pitching prospects.  Only needed Strasburg and JZimm to hit to get better. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #40: March 25, 2023, 02:37:17 PM »
I remember the days of Garrett Mock, Chico, Jason Bergmann, Collin Balester, Shairon Martis, and Ross Detwiler being our big time pitching prospects.  Only needed Strasburg and JZimm to hit to get better. 
Ross Detwiler had something of a career as a lefty reliever and pitched one heck of a start in the 2012 playoffs. His 2012 wasn't bad. HE actually was still pitching last year.  However, once he left the Nats after 2014, he managed to compile a -1.2 fWAR and a -1.6 brWAR.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #41: March 25, 2023, 03:09:59 PM »
I remember the days of Garrett Mock, Chico, Jason Bergmann, Collin Balester, Shairon Martis, and Ross Detwiler being our big time pitching prospects.  Only needed Strasburg and JZimm to hit to get better.

In 2005 when John Patterson went 9-7 with a .313 ERA in 198 innings (he only gave up 172 hits) I though he was going to be a good one. Is he the one who messed up his shoulder diving back into third on a pickoff attempt? If so, that's a good case for the DH. Anyway, too bad he only had that one year.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #42: March 28, 2023, 09:40:05 AM »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-16-30/

I've been following this series on FG, where various writers go through WAR projections for various positions by allocating player time and their projected stats. Not surprising that the Nats are typically near the bottom at every position group, sometimes getting as high as 23rd or so. That said, the projected starting pitching staff is one of the few groups that rate out at the bottom, #30, behind Colorado in #29 and a few AL teams.  The Dead Cat aspect is that this staff projects out better than last year's worst projection by more than a win, and significantly better than the 2022 rotation, which finished at -1.1 fWAR.  Dead Cat Bounce, indeed.

I can't quibble too much with the write up:
Quote
The Nats will get a good look at their future this year with Gray entering his second season with the team and Gore ready to debut for them after coming over in the Juan Soto deal. Corbin hasn’t been right since 2019, with a 5.82 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his last 390 innings. His 4.46 SIERA offers a modicum of hope, but he is just far too hittable (1.7 HR/9, 11.2 H/9) to maximize his 12% K-BB rate, which deserves better than a near-6.00 ERA. Kuhl and Williams reunite after their time together in Pittsburgh. They will look to hold down the fort as younger arms work through the system. There isn’t much on the horizon, especially with Cade Cavalli felled by a UCL tear this spring and out for the year with Tommy John surgery. Strasburg may have thrown his last big league pitch as he deals with complications returning from thoracic outlet syndrome.
emphasis added.

In terms of individual pitchers, I can't see much that makes me say "no way." They have Gore as the best talent among the living but only have him at 126 innings and a 4.25 ERA. Gray they have at a heavier workload (162 IP) but a higher ERA (4.74). They may be too kind of Corbin (4.77 ERA). As for other contributors, they have numbers for Adon, Irvin, Espino, Stras and Tetrault, with only Adon projected for more than 50 starter innings.

That said, in thinking about the bolded language, what could be the surprise upside in the minors to help in 2023?  I don't see much on the projected AAA and AA rosters. Irvin, perhaps? I think maybe a healthy Cole Henry will put up numbers, but I don't see him as strong enough to be pushed into the rotation even with a good recovery from TOS. The best off-the-list guy in the short term might be Rutledge, who at least got to 20 starts and 97 innings last year, and has crazy stuff. Could he move a couple of levels if healthy and contribute at the end of the year? Andry Lara seems like even more of a stretch.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #43: April 04, 2023, 08:36:26 PM »
Time for a game:

Excluding Gore, which starting pitcher will have the best game 2nd time through the rotation? Corbin, Gray, Williams, or Kuhl?

If you had Chad Kuhl with  5 innings, 4 runs given up for the first time for the non-gores through the rotation, you would have won

Online imref

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #44: April 04, 2023, 09:12:19 PM »
Gray

Offline GataNats

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #45: April 04, 2023, 11:53:54 PM »
Second time?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #46: April 05, 2023, 09:11:27 AM »
Second time?
the next 5 games on the schedule will be the second starts for the rotation, so second time through the rotation. Corbin today vs. the Rays, then Gray / Gore / Williams / Kuhl for the @ Rockies series.

Kuhl will be interesting to see because he was not all that good in Colorado that year. I expect Gray to have a tough game in Colorado because I don't think his breaking stuff can be effective.

Offline catocony

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #47: April 05, 2023, 04:05:53 PM »
Is he the one who messed up his shoulder diving back into third on a pickoff attempt?
No, that was Shawn Hill.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #48: April 05, 2023, 04:26:28 PM »
No, that was Shawn Hill.

Thanks. Shawn had promise. Glad they have the DH now.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Rotation 2023 - Dead Cat Bounce Brigade
« Reply #49: April 05, 2023, 05:11:22 PM »
The legend of Hill's baserunning injury has sort of outgrown its importance.

That injury was to his non-throwing shoulder, but his (throwing) arm was already almost dead at that point, anyway.  He was really good when he got playing time in '07, but that was him just mustering whatever production he had left in that broken down arm of his.

I remember being at the start in the middle of that season where he no-hit the Fish through 5 innings.  Then they randomly pulled him in the top of the 6th, and I knew right then his career was basically over.  Easily the most bittersweet game I've attended.