Author Topic: Nats lock up Ruiz  (Read 33999 times)

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Online Slateman

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #350 on: July 24, 2025, 03:18:15 pm »
Disagree. He is currently blocking Millas

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #351 on: July 24, 2025, 03:28:46 pm »
Disagree. He is currently blocking Millas
Millas is not a top prospect. 

Offline IdahoNat

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #352 on: July 24, 2025, 03:41:39 pm »
Millas is not a top prospect.
Does he have to be?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #353 on: July 24, 2025, 04:27:06 pm »
Millas is not a top prospect. 
I don't have much doubt he's better than Ruiz even if he's not a top prospect, but they aren't cutting Ruiz for him.

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #354 on: July 24, 2025, 08:04:34 pm »
Millas is not a top prospect. 

He is our best option at catcher.

Online imref

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #355 on: August 07, 2025, 01:31:53 pm »
Paul Cubbage at Federal Baseball notes:
Quote
Since July 5th (Ruiz’s last game) the Nationals catching room is tied for 7th in fWAR in MLB. Their 130 wRC+ is the best in the NL and 4th best in baseball, and their 0.5 BsR (base running runs above average) is best in baseball. Ruiz cannot start again under any circumstances

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #356 on: August 07, 2025, 01:49:17 pm »
Paul Cubbage at Federal Baseball notes:
he should be known as Galactico because every galaxy has a black hole at its center, and he's been nothing but a black hole in this lineup.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #357 on: August 07, 2025, 08:49:01 pm »
If this org was normal, they'd DFA Ruiz.  If he refused to be outrighted to the minors, he'd forfeit his salary because has less than five years of service time.   Issue seems to be that ownership's passion for sunk costs precludes any chance of paying this guy to play in Rochester where he belongs. 

Offline welch

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #358 on: August 07, 2025, 10:13:06 pm »
Millas and Adams are much better than Ruiz. He rehabs in Rochester when he is able to play again. And stays there next season. No other team would want him.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #359 on: August 08, 2025, 10:34:35 am »
Millas and Adams are much better than Ruiz. He rehabs in Rochester when he is able to play again. And stays there next season. No other team would want him.
We can hope.

I'm not sure if there's a potential grievance were they to release him or waive and outright him while he's injured. I think they have to let him try to rehab. I'm not sure of the rule.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #360 on: August 08, 2025, 11:06:21 am »
Adams and Millas are a combined 0.4 bWAR (177 at bats).  Most of that Adams. Keibert was 0.7 (255 at bats). It’s cheaper but don’t see much of an improvement.  I think people are just frustrated with Ruiz and the eye test isn’t matching the reality.

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #361 on: August 08, 2025, 11:25:12 am »
Adams and Millas are a combined 0.4 bWAR (177 at bats).  Most of that Adams. Keibert was 0.7 (255 at bats). It’s cheaper but don’t see much of an improvement.  I think people are just frustrated with Ruiz and the eye test isn’t matching the reality.
well, FG has Ruiz as a -1 fWAR. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/keibert-ruiz/19610/stats?position=C

Since Ruiz was injured on 7/5, Millas and Adams are plus 0.7 fWAR. That's basically in a month.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2025&month=1000&season1=2025&ind=0&team=24&startdate=2025-07-06&enddate=2025-11-01&qual=10

The upgrade in play has been enormous. Millas over that stretch actually has the highest fWAR of anyone on the Nats (0.5). It's ok to say he will not run a .500 BABIP, but the worst you can say is 24 PAs is a small sample.

First rule of holes is: when you find yourself stuck in a hole, stop digging. That's the Nats catching. Playing Ruiz, especially without playing the backup enough to get him on a roll, violates the first rule of holes.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #362 on: August 08, 2025, 03:28:04 pm »
The Ruiz contract has a negative impact on the organization far beyond it being a sunken cost. There has been a clamoring on this site to sign Abrams and Wood to a long-term contracts. If you were the Lerners' and also having been burned by Strasburg and Corbins' contracts would you be reluctant to sign any player that has a few years track record?

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #363 on: August 08, 2025, 04:01:30 pm »
The Ruiz contract has a negative impact on the organization far beyond it being a sunken cost. There has been a clamoring on this site to sign Abrams and Wood to a long-term contracts. If you were the Lerners' and also having been burned by Strasburg and Corbins' contracts would you be reluctant to sign any player that has a few years track record?
They absolutely were not burned by the Corbin contract. We wouldn't have won in 2019 without him. Yes, his ERA sucked after then, but we weren't going to win with the team around him, especially once Schwarber and Strasburg went down.

Strasburg, yes, obviously the worst contract in ML history.

Beyond that, they had a few guys they tried to sign who fortunately went elsewhere: Rendon, Desmond, Zimmermann. And a few who got away: Soto and Harper. And we've debated to death whether or not losing Harper was a net benefit since it meant we kept Eaton in 2019.

Bottom line is that like with anything else, some extensions work out, some don't. If this team thinks that Wood & Abrams are long-term players, then you extend them. I expect they will try and extend Wood and trade Abrams when one our other shortstop prospects is ready.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #364 on: August 08, 2025, 05:11:48 pm »
The Ruiz contract has a negative impact on the organization far beyond it being a sunken cost. There has been a clamoring on this site to sign Abrams and Wood to a long-term contracts. If you were the Lerners' and also having been burned by Strasburg and Corbins' contracts would you be reluctant to sign any player that has a few years track record?

The Ruiz contract was yet another attempt to do something cheap that backfired.   Typically you don't sign a player to a 8 year/50 million guarantee that far before free agency because you're making a long-term commitment and that player isn't established like an 8 year/100-200 million Corbin Carroll, Roman Anthony, Ronald Acuna type.  So there's little incentive to extend because it's not clear the 50 million player will be that hard to retain in free agency.  But the Nats Natted and decided to lock up a player who was cheaper than a typical extension, with lottery ticket hopes that he might turn into a 100-200 million sort of player.  Not surprisingly, their dumb idea didn't work out.  They've made it worse by Natting and playing his contract when he's been nothing short of awful.

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #365 on: August 08, 2025, 05:11:58 pm »
They absolutely were not burned by the Corbin contract. We wouldn't have won in 2019 without him.

Yes...we were burned big time...we didn't need "Patrick Corbin" to win the 2019 WS...we just needed someone to pitch as well as he did.  The following years of that contract were beyond horrific, and had he not had that huge contract, he'd have been DFA'd halfway thru it......

Online Slateman

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #366 on: August 08, 2025, 06:51:28 pm »
Yes...we were burned big time...we didn't need "Patrick Corbin" to win the 2019 WS...we just needed someone to pitch as well as he did.  The following years of that contract were beyond horrific, and had he not had that huge contract, he'd have been DFA'd halfway thru it......

So we needed another Cy Young candidate? Corbin finished 11th that year in the voting

Offline welch

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #367 on: August 08, 2025, 06:55:16 pm »
That was too much. I looked up Corbin for this year. He has outpitched any Washington starter. Not an ace, but better than Gore.

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #368 on: August 08, 2025, 07:03:24 pm »
So we needed another Cy Young candidate? Corbin finished 11th that year in the voting

I guess the logic of “we just needed another pitcher to pitch as well as Corbin did” is tough to dispute? :shrug:

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #369 on: August 08, 2025, 07:45:34 pm »
So we needed another Cy Young candidate? Corbin finished 11th that year in the voting

Or pitchers, plural...the bullpen only had a couple of guys we apparently could rely upon...and that was Corbin's claim to fame in the WS...


Online Slateman

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #370 on: August 08, 2025, 08:04:37 pm »
Or pitchers, plural...the bullpen only had a couple of guys we apparently could rely upon...and that was Corbin's claim to fame in the WS...


Uh, what about his 33 starts with a 3.25 ERA? Where were we getting that in 2019?

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #371 on: August 08, 2025, 08:22:21 pm »
That was too much. I looked up Corbin for this year. He has outpitched any Washington starter. Not an ace, but better than Gore.


Interesting to say the least. Is Hickey a "career ender" and is the prime source for the dismal performance of our pitchers over the last several years? He wasn't here in 2020 so when did his reign start in DC?

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #372 on: August 08, 2025, 08:49:45 pm »


Interesting to say the least. Is Hickey a "career ender" and is the prime source for the dismal performance of our pitchers over the last several years? He wasn't here in 2020 so when did his reign start in DC?
2021 season.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #373 on: August 09, 2025, 07:27:37 am »


Interesting to say the least. Is Hickey a "career ender" and is the prime source for the dismal performance of our pitchers over the last several years? He wasn't here in 2020 so when did his reign start in DC?

I think a massive part of it is it's very hard to pitch well when you combine terrible infield defense with terrible catcher pitch framing. And that doesn't even get into any deficiencies in coaching.

Pretty much any Nationals pitcher would look better elsewhere, outside of Colorado or Sacramento.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Nats lock up Ruiz
« Reply #374 on: August 09, 2025, 03:58:47 pm »
I think a massive part of it is it's very hard to pitch well when you combine terrible infield defense with terrible catcher pitch framing. And that doesn't even get into any deficiencies in coaching.

Pretty much any Nationals pitcher would look better elsewhere, outside of Colorado or Sacramento.

Team is dead last in Defensive Runs Saved for C+IF