Author Topic: Joey Meneses 2023 - Is he for real? (Read 3095 times)

It's also not his K rate, either. 22% isn't a killer. He's gone from a .232 ISO to .082. Some of his numbers, like hard hit rate, don't show a decline. A bit less loft, a bit lower average velocity on contact, combined, even his his x numbers on BA and SLG are just a tick down. There's some luck in it (xBA is .030 better than his batting average, which ripples through to his SLG).

I'd say a chunk is return to expectations, some is worse contact, and a chunk is bad luck still. Maybe 50% - 20%- 30%?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #35:** April 13, 2023, 11:21:09 AM »

Quote from: IanRubbish on April 13, 2023, 11:14:39 AM

Davey is being generous to him with playing time, Stone Garrett has earned a chance for more ABs.

There needs to be some sort of massive rotation among the 4 outfielders, Smith, and Meneses where essentially the all get to play about 5 out of 6 games. Unfortunately, there's only 1 natural platoon with 5 righty bats and Smith, so maybe Smith should be sitting at least once against a lefty every 6 game stretch. That also means running an outfield w/o Robles once a week.

Then, of course, is "What do you do when Dickerson is active?" Cruddy team, but tough lineup decisions.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #36:** April 13, 2023, 11:22:44 AM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on April 13, 2023, 11:21:09 AM

There needs to be some sort of massive rotation among the 4 outfielders, Smith, and Meneses where essentially the all get to play about 5 out of 6 games. Unfortunately, there's only 1 natural platoon with 5 righty bats and Smith, so maybe Smith should be sitting at least once against a lefty every 6 game stretch. That also means running an outfield w/o Robles once a week.

Then, of course, is "What do you do when Dickerson is active?" Cruddy team, but tough lineup decisions.

Too complicated for Davey. He just wants to pencil the same guys every day. Misses his 2019 Nats.

nobleisthyname · « **Reply #37:** April 13, 2023, 11:30:55 AM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on April 13, 2023, 11:16:31 AM

It's also not his K rate, either. 22% isn't a killer. He's gone from a .232 ISO to .082. Some of his numbers, like hard hit rate, don't show a decline. A bit less loft, a bit lower average velocity on contact, combined, even his his x numbers on BA and SLG are just a tick down. There's some luck in it (xBA is .030 better than his batting average, which ripples through to his SLG).

I'd say a chunk is return to expectations, some is worse contact, and a chunk is bad luck still. Maybe 50% - 20%- 30%?

He has a wOBA of .266 but an xwOBA of .308, so it seems there is some element of unluckiness which is probably reflected in his hard hit rate still being pretty good, but .308 still isn't very good for a 1B. One thing that stood out to me looking at his batted ball profile is his infield popups are waaay up so far this year compared to last year, 3.9% to 9.1%, which definitely points to weaker contact being made.

So yeah, I think your breakdown of the causes of his decline are pretty accurate.

zimm_da_kid · « **Reply #38:** April 13, 2023, 11:34:39 AM »

He did well in the wbc, I think it’s just small sample size so far. Don smith has 0 extra base hits, doesn’t mean he won’t have a decent amount by seasons end

Slateman · « **Reply #39:** April 13, 2023, 12:57:01 PM »

Its early and cold. If Im not gonna get overly excited about Vic hitting over .300 after two weeks, Im not gonna get excited about this either

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #40:** April 13, 2023, 01:45:08 PM »

Quote from: Slateman on April 13, 2023, 12:57:01 PM

Its early and cold. If Im not gonna get overly excited about Vic hitting over .300 after two weeks, Im not gonna get excited about this either

this kind of gets back to "Stone Garrett should play every day." He had one great game. Sure, you could have been saying that before his call up (and you in particular were), but I don't think his performance in one game after his call up changes anything.

All you can say at this point is Joey's had some bad luck, Dom's not hitting for power but otherwise is fine, and the rest of the potential replaceables (Call, Robles, and Thomas) are all exceeding expectations.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #41:** April 13, 2023, 02:10:40 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on April 13, 2023, 01:45:08 PM

this kind of gets back to "Stone Garrett should play every day." He had one great game. Sure, you could have been saying that before his call up (and you in particular were), but I don't think his performance in one game after his call up changes anything.

All you can say at this point is Joey's had some bad luck, Dom's not hitting for power but otherwise is fine, and the rest of the potential replaceables (Call, Robles, and Thomas) are all exceeding expectations.

I think you play the hot hand. Garrett played 2 of the last 3 games of the Rockies series. And hit in both games. And then sat out the next series. Lots of options as you noted to rotate the OF and 1B and DH.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #42:** April 13, 2023, 05:10:04 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on April 13, 2023, 02:10:40 PM

I think you play the hot hand. Garrett played 2 of the last 3 games of the Rockies series. And hit in both games. And then sat out the next series. Lots of options as you noted to rotate the OF and 1B and DH.

I expect Garrrett will get sent down as soon as Dickerson is ready. Also, w/r/t Meneses, he had a relatively good series. 4 or 5 hits, a few RBIs, even a double IIRC.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #43:** April 13, 2023, 05:31:46 PM »

Stone was 6-10 in the two games he played in Colorado. Altogether 7-12 this year. Already 0.4 bWAR. Dickerson is washed I think. But Garrett still has options so you are probably right. I know he won’t sustain those numbers but if you plan to option him to the minors that is even more reason to play him while here.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #44:** April 13, 2023, 05:45:00 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on April 13, 2023, 05:31:46 PM

Stone was 6-10 in the two games he played in Colorado. Altogether 7-12 this year. Already 0.4 bWAR. Dickerson is washed I think. But Garrett still has options so you are probably right. I know he won’t sustain those numbers but if you plan to option him to the minors that is even more reason to play him while here.

yes, it's the Dickerson signing that, for now, looks unnecessary and blocking, but it may end up being Meneses who deserves a Rochester visit.

Slateman · « **Reply #45:** April 13, 2023, 10:06:32 PM »

Im not sure how much we want to extrapolate from a seried at Coors. You keep Dickerson and give him until the deadline, cus some time might offer you a lottery ticket for a lefty bat with some pop. Garrett can also slot into CF whenever Robles gets hurt. Or Thomas.

There is no reason to send Meneses back to Triple A unless its a rehab assignment. Dude spent ten years in the minors, theres nothing a couple months in Rochester is gonna fix. He doesnt even 300 PAs in the major leagues yet and he's in a lineup where he is pretty much the hitter the opposing team circles every night. Just let him struggle up here.

imref · « **Reply #46:** April 13, 2023, 10:13:17 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on April 13, 2023, 05:31:46 PM

Stone was 6-10 in the two games he played in Colorado. Altogether 7-12 this year. Already 0.4 bWAR. Dickerson is washed I think. But Garrett still has options so you are probably right. I know he won’t sustain those numbers but if you plan to option him to the minors that is even more reason to play him while here.

i wonder if there's some sort of undisclosed injury. It just seems odd that he didn't play at all against the Angels.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #47:** April 14, 2023, 09:21:44 AM »

Quote from: Slateman on April 13, 2023, 10:06:32 PM

Im not sure how much we want to extrapolate from a seried at Coors. You keep Dickerson and give him until the deadline, cus some time might offer you a lottery ticket for a lefty bat with some pop. Garrett can also slot into CF whenever Robles gets hurt. Or Thomas.

There is no reason to send Meneses back to Triple A unless its a rehab assignment. Dude spent ten years in the minors, theres nothing a couple months in Rochester is gonna fix. He doesnt even 300 PAs in the major leagues yet and he's in a lineup where he is pretty much the hitter the opposing team circles every night. Just let him struggle up here.

there you go, being the voice of reason and thought. I agree 100% that, when Dickerson is healthy, he plays until he's either Maikel Franco DFA material or he's in the Josh Harrison / Yan Gomes range and gets moved at the deadline.

I mentioned Meneses only because (1) it's his thread, and (2) I was trying to come up with someone other than Garrett to send down when Dickerson is healthy. Call and Thomas are out of the question because right now they are probably the 2nd and 3rd best hitters playing (behind Robles). But yes, Garrett's the likely one, which may even be why they aren't playing him.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #48:** April 18, 2023, 09:41:28 AM »

WaPO article: As Joey Meneses awaits his first home run, his confidence is growing

Quote

Joey Meneses’s past three hits — all singles, including the go-ahead hit in the eighth inning of the Washington Nationals’ win Sunday — looked quite similar. He didn’t jump at the baseball. He stayed back, took what the pitcher gave him and shot the ball to the opposite field.

They weren’t hit nearly as hard as many of the home runs he crushed last summer. But Meneses believes they signal a trend toward success.

“Usually when I’m going the other way, it adds confidence to my at-bats,” he said Sunday through an interpreter. “I feel like once I get that going, I start to let loose a little bit with my at-bats and start generating a little bit more power.”

...

Meneses raised his batting average to .238 with a pair of two-hit performances over the weekend, but he has yet to hit a home run. He has four doubles and four RBI. He has struggled with his timing, often jumping at pitches and rolling over to the shortstop instead of driving the ball to the middle of the field. In the fourth inning Sunday, he grounded out with runners on second and third and then slammed his helmet on the ground before hitting it against the dugout railing.

...

From an advanced statistics perspective, Meneses isn’t performing significantly worse in any category. He’s getting more barrels than he did a season ago (10.9 percent of the time to 9.9 percent). His average exit velocity has dipped from 91.4 mph to 89.1 mph — still above league average. His expected batting average of .263 is just four points below his mark of a year ago.

Facing Dean Kremer tonight. Righty. My guess is that Joey plays and they see if he gets going, with Garrett in left and Call on the bench. However, there's a chance that Garrett DHs and Call plays just to spread the playing time.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #49:** April 22, 2023, 05:41:43 PM »

up to .259. OPS only .664, but he's having a decent series.

Since 4/7, he's 16 for 55, which is .291. OPS for that stretch approaches .780. I don't have it exact, but he's probably around .291 / .335 / .445.