Bullpen - the strength of 2023?

[catocony]

JCA gives an attaboy to Erasmo and then Erasmo gives up 3 runs in a third of an inning. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

JCA gives an attaboy to Erasmo and then Erasmo gives up 3 runs in a third of an inning. 

eh, I also gave an attaboy to Harvey and Edwards, and  they did their jobs, more or less. But you are right - I called out Finnegan and he ends up performing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Odd fact: Nats bullpen has MLB's highest average velocity on their 4 seam fastballs (96.2 mph). Nevertheless, they are 28th in K/9.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=15,d

[nobleisthyname]

Odd fact: Nats bullpen has MLB's highest average velocity on their 4 seam fastballs (96.2 mph). Nevertheless, they are 28th in K/9.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=15,d

That is weird. It's not particularly close either, the Nat's bullpen is way faster than the next closest team. The difference between the Nats and #2 is the same as the difference between #2 and #7.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

That is weird. It's not particularly close either, the Nat's bullpen is way faster than the next closest team. The difference between the Nats and #2 is the same as the difference between #2 and #7.

well, I guess maybe good hitters can hit velocity without movement, so that may be why they aren't K'ing guys. We'd probably have to dig deeper into the spin rates and the like to get at the hittability of their heat.

[UMDNats]

Rizzo failing to trade Finnegan over the winter was such a moronic mistake and so predictable. Glad we held onto our crappy closer who a week into the season is probably just a mop-up guy.

[welch]

Rizzo failing to trade Finnegan over the winter was such a moronic mistake and so predictable. Glad we held onto our crappy closer who a week into the season is probably just a mop-up guy.

Who offered what for Finnegan?

[Natsinpwc]

Bottom line is that most relievers are starters who could not cut it that way. So they are notoriously inconsistent. Finnegan has been good the past few seasons but all the other GMs know relievers are voodoo so would not have gotten much. On a team with bad or inexperienced starters he still has value other than a closer. Maybe he will rebound and some contender will get crazy at the deadline and offer a decent prospect.

[Natsinpwc]

So I guess Finnegan looked ok as closer.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

while the scoring rules say Patrick Corbin gets the win, last night was really winnable only because of the 4 innings of shutout relief from Thompson, Harvey, Edwards, and Finnegan.  A stat-geeky approach backs this up. There's a stat, win probability added, that looks at the situation in the game, the probable outcomes from similar games with the same on base, out, inning, and leads over the years, and looks at the change from before and after each plate appearance for the offense and the defense. WPA shows that the 4 relievers added .344 to the win probability (out of a max for the winning team of .500). Top kudos go to Harvey, at .122, who came in with 2 outs, tying run on first, in the 6th, got the 3rd out on a K of Trout, then got through the next inning, 3-4-5 hitters. 

[imref]

So I guess Finnegan looked ok as closer.

So far in 6 appearances this season, he has allowed runs in 2 of them. Only one cost us a game. In the 4 scoreless innings, he's allowed a hit and a walk and struck out 3.

If Finnegan handles 8 of every 10 opportunities he gets this season, I'd think we call that a success.

[Natsinpwc]

So far in 6 appearances this season, he has allowed runs in 2 of them. Only one cost us a game. In the 4 scoreless innings, he's allowed a hit and a walk and struck out 3.

If Finnegan handles 8 of every 10 opportunities he gets this season, I'd think we call that a success.

Agree. Looks like he might have blown the only chance anyone has to beat the Rays this year.

[nfotiu]

Having a decent bullpen seems somewhat important for the morale of a young team.   I'm sure it would start to get pretty old for the young pitchers if they pitched well only to have every game blown by the bullpen.   It's also nice for the young players that they can contribute to winning some close games by getting key late hits that aren't immediately given back.

It's also good for the morale of the fans and has made this team a little more enjoyable to watcth this year than I was expecting.

[Slateman]

When they suck, its at the worst possible time

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Decent week for the bullpen. 18.1 IP, 5 ERs. Only Hobie, Thaddeus, and Hunter gave up earned runs (Hobie and Carl Jr. gave up an unearned run each).  Edwards actually had the blown save and the loss, Thompson the win.

[Slateman]

I want to see Thompson in higg leverage situations.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I want to see Thompson in higg leverage situations.

Finny has been solid in 4 appearances since the Rays series, when he had his melt down. I like that they are comfortable using Thompson over multiple innings. He's somebody I feel comfortable picking up a starter with a lead, either mid-inning or a clean one.

The bullpen is about the only thing on this team that looks like a mid-level MLB unit.

[Slateman]

Finny has been solid in 4 appearances since the Rays series, when he had his melt down. I like that they are comfortable using Thompson over multiple innings. He's somebody I feel comfortable picking up a starter with a lead, either mid-inning or a clean one.

The bullpen is about the only thing on this team that looks like a mid-level MLB unit.

Finnegan got bailed out by his defense the last game against Cleveland. Over that last four appearances, his WHIP is still over 2.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Finnegan got bailed out by his defense the last game against Cleveland. Over that last four appearances, his WHIP is still over 2.

tbh, I am more worried about Edwards when he comes in. I guess that's why you want to see Thompson along with Harvey in high leverage. 

I think Thompson's ability to go multiple innings is a weapon, sort of like Garrett Whitlock was for the Red Sox in 2021.  I would not mind seeing the bullpen getting a bigger than normal share of the innings.  They are near average by a lot of measures, which is a strength.

[Slateman]

tbh, I am more worried about Edwards when he comes in. I guess that's why you want to see Thompson along with Harvey in high leverage. 

I think Thompson's ability to go multiple innings is a weapon, sort of like Garrett Whitlock was for the Red Sox in 2021.  I would not mind seeing the bullpen getting a bigger than normal share of the innings.  They are near average by a lot of measures, which is a strength.

I'm fine with Finnegan until his results catch up with his metrics. And I can live with keeping Edwards in a setup role for trade value.

But come August, I want to see a back end of the bullpen of Harvey and Thompson. Also would like to see Cronin and/or Ferrer getting "A Bullpen" chances.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

close to the most fun thing on the team to watch. Maybe Gore if you squint at the walks.

Highest average fastball velocity in the majors.

Near the bottom on K/9 and middle of the pack in BB/9 and ERA. 4th in BABIP, and towards the back of the pack in hard hit%, but they are the toughest bullpen to pull. 2d highest in up the middle %, so a lot of those hard and medium hit flies are dropping into robles's glove.  also groundball heavy relative to flies.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's Corbin going today, so maybe it is already moot as well as not quite ripe, but "Bullpen A" has been used a lot lately. 

In a discussion of "Recent notable workloads" for bullpens:

Kyle Finnegan, WSN: Back-to-back days; 3 of last 4 days; 10 pitches on Wednesday. | RosterResource

Hunter Harvey and Carl Edwards Jr. have also pitched back-to-back days and Mason Thompson pitched on Monday and Tuesday before getting a day off on Wednesday. Andrés Machado and Erasmo Ramírez are candidates for a save chance if the Nationals want to give the aforementioned pitchers a rest on Thursday.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/bullpen-report-may-4-2023/

I could see Thompson getting the 9th if there's a close lead, with perhaps Machado getting the 8th.  Erasmo might have to go 2. Ward wasn't bad Monday, either, so maybe he comes in with a lead in the middle innings, which would be a first, I think.

[welch]

Yes, bullpen is a strength, and maybe helped because the starting pitching has been a little better than last year. I don't have the numbers on the starters, but, if I'm right, it should help the bullpen. Can't think of any reliever who is truly bad...maybe Jordan Weems?

The last two games, the wins over the Cubs, have had some good pitching.

[Dave in Fairfax]

Starter ERA is, I believe, around 4.61. With Kuhl out of the rotation, at least for a while, that could drop.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Even Weems looked good his last time up. Hobie Harris has had a tough stretch and might be the least trustworthy since Banda is gone.

Starters have thrown 154 innings over 30 games, or 5.13 innings (decimal, not thirds).  That's 22nd in starter innings, although a few teams have a couple more games.  For comparison, last year, over 162 innings, the starters went 772 2/3 innings, or 4.78 per start. That means the starters so far are going about 1/3 of an inning longer.  Kuhl was the only starter averaging under 5 innings per start until Irvin last night.