Bullpen - the strength of 2023?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

to give some perspective on the bullpen performance, MLB average K% is 24%, BB% is 10%, opponent average is .236, ERA and FIP are both a touch over 4 (4.06 and 4.13).

of the regular relievers, only Harvey and Finnegan have MLB average or better K%-BB% - Harvey (31%-9%), Finnegan (25%-11%).  Kuhl also has very good K% (25%) and BB% (7%), but a lot of that is as a starter.  Mason Thompson is a touch below that due to the low K% (19%-8%).  Ward actually has a league average WHIP (1.31) because, while he walks a ridiculous amount of guys, he's been pretty tough to hit (opponent avg - .157) and he Ks a respectable amount of hitters (23%).

[catocony]

The Astros went through much of 2019 without a leftie in the pen. Both Ryan Pressley and Will Harris were better against LHBs than against RHBs. They also didn't have a LHP in the pen in their run to the WS last year.

L/R doesn't matter if RHP's can get LHBs out.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-astros-dont-need-lefties/

Will Harris - didn't he make $24 million from the Nats and threw about 31 pitches in his career here?

[imref]

Will Harris - didn't he make $24 million from the Nats and threw about 31 pitches in his career here?

Think of it as a reward for throwing the most important pitch in Nats history (to Howie Kendrick)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/06/25/nationals-mason-thompson/

discusses his streaky season - great April, disastrous May, unscored upon in June. Says his motion was thrown off right around the time in late April when there was what everyone recognizes some over-use leading to a blow up against the Mets.

The difference in those stretches is notable, yet a minute detail led to Thompson’s errant command in May. Thompson has always had a short-armed delivery from the glove to his throwing position, but last month, it suddenly became shorter than normal. He was bringing the ball immediately to his ear instead of extending his arm slightly further back to get more of an arc in his arm path before delivering to the plate.

Thompson said his final outing of April was the first outing where he noticed something was off. He allowed two runs on three hits and earned the loss against the New York Mets, pitching on one day rest after an Apr. 25 outing where he earning a three-inning save at Citi Field in which he struck out four.

“What we are working on, for the most part, is the path of his arm,” Nationals pitching coach Jim Hickey said in May during Thompson’s rough patch. “And it was great. I think we did him a little bit of a disservice when he pitched the three innings in New York and then asked him to come back with one day rest. I think that was probably the beginning of it. But it’s always something that’s been on our radar. This was something last year that we addressed. So it’s not like he’s just totally broken. He just needed a little bit of maintenance, a little bit of tinkering.”

Fix involved using a weight that made him take a lengthier delivery path.

This guy is a key to the bullpen with Edwards out. Probably the #3 reliever, with Weems #4 and La Sorsa mixed in on match ups.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If you are tracking bullpen abuse, there's a neat chart on the Roster Resource link for the Nats on Fangraphs. It shows appearances and pitches for relievers over the past 6 days.\
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/nationals

Nats used 6 out of their 8 relievers yesterday.  All of them threw at least 20 pitches except Ferrer (14) and Abbott (16). Day before, La Sorsa threw 51 pitches (poorly) and Willingham and Weems 20+.  Abbott (46) and Ferrer (25) were used Tuesday.

Off this chart, it looks like Weems is overdue for some rest, having gone 3 out the last 4 days, 27-29 pitches. Thompson, too, is unlikely to be available today having thrown 31 pitches and their efforts to limit him on back to back days.

With the rumor from Talknats that Adon is on his way up, my guess is La Sorsa would be on his way down if Adon isn't an injury replacement.  Also, the Nats signed Luis Cessa yesterday to a minor league contract.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

guessed right about La Sorsa being sent down when Adon was called up.

July 7: RHP Joan Adon recalled from Triple-A Rochester; LHP Joe La Sorsa optioned
The 24-year-old Adon joins the Nationals for the first time this season after going 1-2 with a 3.44 ERA in his past six appearances with Rochester. Manager Dave Martinez said the bullpen might need length from Adon  after a rain delay and extra innings on Thursday.

“He has been attacking the strike zone,” Martinez said. “His secondary pitches have been really good as well. He’s throwing them for strikes. If we have to use him today or [in the] next day or two, we will put him out there.”

Adon earned his first career victory for the Nats on April 19, 2022, against Arizona. His last appearance for the club came one year ago, on July 7, 2022, when he took the loss against Philadelphia. La Sorsa appeared in five games for Washington, posting an 18.00 ERA.

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/nationals-injuries-and-roster-moves

[JCA-CrystalCity]

hmmmm. . .

I guess now "Bullpen A" is Finnegan, Thompson, Weems, and Abbott? 

They may have thought that Willingham's short arm delivery could fool guys perhaps the first time they see him, but he obviously can't throw to more than a few guys and go over an inning. I'm OK with taking some lumps with him and Ferrer at this point, probably the same for La Sorsa.  At this point, there's got to be freely-available talent that's more reliable. Mexican League, Independent ball? I'd be happy with replacement level. When Weems is your #3 reliever, and you are looking to trade #1, it's tough.

We went into the year relatively stacked: Finnegan, Harvey, Edwards, Easmo, Thompson, Harris, Banda, and Ward. None of the bottom 3 worked out, injuries took out the set up guys, Erasmo - last year's best reliever - blew up, and Thompson was somewhat broken from overuse.

[Slateman]

Willingham sucks. Dump this dude. Ferrer isnt any better.

Go get Gensis Cabrerra. I know he's been bad, but he can strike guys out, and at one point, he was decent. Get him out of St. Louis' toxic clubhouse and see if we can get him back to 2021 production.

[welch]

hmmmm. . .

I guess now "Bullpen A" is Finnegan, Thompson, Weems, and Abbott? 

They may have thought that Willingham's short arm delivery could fool guys perhaps the first time they see him, but he obviously can't throw to more than a few guys and go over an inning. I'm OK with taking some lumps with him and Ferrer at this point, probably the same for La Sorsa.  At this point, there's got to be freely-available talent that's more reliable. Mexican League, Independent ball? I'd be happy with replacement level. When Weems is your #3 reliever, and you are looking to trade #1, it's tough.

We went into the year relatively stacked: Finnegan, Harvey, Edwards, Easmo, Thompson, Harris, Banda, and Ward. None of the bottom 3 worked out, injuries took out the set up guys, Erasmo - last year's best reliever - blew up, and Thompson was somewhat broken from overuse.

Every other game is a give-away, like last night. Espino worse than I remember, and the tryouts -- LaSorsa, Willingham, and Ferrer -- failing. The minors have nobody.

Does this suggest that Rizzo's strategy, the strategy that builds around good starting pitchers, has to shift? Better relief pitchers? One less position player and an extra, and well-developed, relief pitcher? Or should the Nats continue to develop starters in the minors but revert, in the majors, to the old idea of having several spot starters? Maybe take the good minor league starters, guys who throw all the pitches that a starter can, but use them four innings per stint when they get to the Nats?

It does seem clear that the Nats cannot survive with a bullpen full of modern orthodox one-inning relief pitchers.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Willingham sucks. Dump this dude. Ferrer isnt any better.

Go get Gensis Cabrerra. I know he's been bad, but he can strike guys out, and at one point, he was decent. Get him out of St. Louis' toxic clubhouse and see if we can get him back to 2021 production.

well, he fits the model of what I was talking about. Freely available, waiver wire talent. Throw some spaghetti at a wall and hope some sticks.

What I'd say about Willingham and Ferrer is that I'd be happy if they were in the minors and working on stuff.  I might even be happier had they never been added to the 40 man but they needed to be tried given where we were with injuries. I don't think you release them just yet. Espino, on the other hand, is the type of guy that should not be on a 40 man roster until he is needed at the MLB level, and should be dropped when he isn't.

[Mattionals]

well, he fits the model of what I was talking about. Freely available, waiver wire talent. Throw some spaghetti at a wall and hope some sticks.

What I'd say about Willingham and Ferrer is that I'd be happy if they were in the minors and working on stuff.  I might even be happier had they never been added to the 40 man but they needed to be tried given where we were with injuries. I don't think you release them just yet. Espino, on the other hand, is the type of guy that should not be on a 40 man roster until he is needed at the MLB level, and should be dropped when he isn't.

Espino should be what Tommy Milone has been for the Mariners.

[imref]

Outside of Finnegan, this is a bullpen that was mediocre at Rochester. There's no reason to think they will be better a level higher. Before anyone yells "DFA xxx" have a look at the alternates still at Rochester. There simply aren't any good arms that are close to the major league level right now.

[welch]

Change the model. A team needs too many one-inning relievers now that a starting pitcher rarely goes more than five innings. Now that a six-inning start is what a complete game used to be. (I'm exaggerating to make a point...a pitcher most of us should know led the AL with 18 complete games in 1963). Is the one-inning reliever sustainable?

If a starter goes 5 innings, that leaves four innings to the bullpen, or 8 relievers every two games. Even if a relief pitcher goes two days in a row, that is heavy usage...and leaves nothing to spare when a starter only goes three or four innings.

If a bullpen has a few injuries, such as the Mets, then a team crumbles.

[Natsinpwc]

Change the model. A team needs too many one-inning relievers now that a starting pitcher rarely goes more than five innings. Now that a six-inning start is what a complete game used to be. (I'm exaggerating to make a point...a pitcher most of us should know led the AL with 18 complete games in 1963). Is the one-inning reliever sustainable?

If a starter goes 5 innings, that leaves four innings to the bullpen, or 8 relievers every two games. Even if a relief pitcher goes two days in a row, that is heavy usage...and leaves nothing to spare when a starter only goes three or four innings.

If a bullpen has a few injuries, such as the Mets, then a team crumbles.

Fair point. It’s why teams now carry 13 pitchers. Used to be 10 or so.  But you need one or two starters who can go seven. And some mop up guys who can go more than one inning. Chad Kuhl would be better than some of these guys now in the pen.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Thompson was being groomed as a multi-inning guy, as is Weems. Finnegan too has been going over 1 inning, mostly out of necessity. Maybe the next significant quality reinforcement would be Rainey. Innings 6 & 7 are the and innings.

[welch]

I am thinking that maybe the next sort of relievers should be those trained as starting pitchers, meaning they need at least three MLB pitches, and maybe four or even five (like Gray). Expect them to go three innings each time, or even four, like the old opener/finisher model, with maybe a one-inning closer.

Not just a 100 mph fastball and one secondary pitch, which is good for one inning, and might stretch toward two, as Thompson and Finnegan did night before last.



 

[Slateman]

But then they would need even more time off inbetween appearances

[Natsinpwc]

The only solution to the madness is to keep adding more slots to the active mlb roster so more pitchers can be added.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

As for what was thought to be the strength of the team, I think the only 2 relievers active now who broke camp with the team are Finnegan and Thompson.  Of the remaining 6, I don't think any of them were on the 40 man roster at the time.

[welch]

But then they would need even more time off inbetween appearances

Yes. I know, and that's why is might make best sense to go to three-inning relievers. Or two starters that a team hopes can go six innings, and two more it thinks can go five or less. With two or three four- or three-inning pitchers. Or, as Natsinpwc suggests, add roster slots.

I am pretty certain that the now-traditional one-inning reliever no longer works. I'm just not sure what the solution might be.   

[Slateman]

Yes. I know, and that's why is might make best sense to go to three-inning relievers. Or two starters that a team hopes can go six innings, and two more it thinks can go five or less. With two or three four- or three-inning pitchers. Or, as Natsinpwc suggests, add roster slots.

I am pretty certain that the now-traditional one-inning reliever no longer works. I'm just not sure what the solution might be.   

But then they would need even more time off. Like probably a couple days. Which means, on any given day, you could have three relievers unavailable, simply due to work load

[Slateman]

hmmmm. . .

I guess now "Bullpen A" is Finnegan, Thompson, Weems, and Abbott?

Im gonna go ahead and say that Abbott doesnt belong in the A bullpen

[aBaltoNat]

Im gonna go ahead and say that Abbott doesnt belong in the A bullpen

Yikes

[imref]

Time to call H-Rod, Soriano, and Storen and see if they have anything left in the tank. This is easily our worst bullpen ever.

[welch]

Time to call H-Rod, Soriano, and Storen and see if they have anything left in the tank. This is easily our worst bullpen ever.

And Clippard, too.