Are The Nationals in Spring Training?

[Smithian]

Are there even any story lines in Nats spring training? I can't think of one.

Corey Dickerson pace to hit #3 for the Nationals!

[imref]

There are a few storylines:
- Health of Cavalli and Gore
- Development of Gray and Abrams
- Are our salvage projects going to rebound?

Most of the storylines are on the minor league fields, e.g. the development of Woods, Green, Hassell, House, etc.

[HalfSmokes]

There are a few storylines:
- Health of Cavalli and Gore
- Development of Gray and Abrams
- Are our salvage projects going to rebound?

Most of the storylines are on the minor league fields, e.g. the development of Woods, Green, Hassell, House, etc.

If all of those play out perfectly, will this team compete for the wild card? If not, then they are non-stories

[imref]

If all of those play out perfectly, will this team compete for the wild card? If not, then they are non-stories

70 wins baby, 70 wins....

[UMDNats]

This season is already setting up infinity better than last year. At this point last year it was basically just "will they sign Soto or trade him? because the franchise is direction-less."

now, 3 of our 5 starting rotation are young pitchers with promise, the 4th is a reliable stopgap, and the 5th is paddy corbs, who will mostly just be there to tank every 5th day.

the lineup has one bright young C, a promising SS, a young 2B who still could be decent, and a cool story in meneses. we're going to suck, but at least we finally have something worth watching most nights. give me gray-gore-cavalli over adon-corbin-??? like it was last year.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Are there even any story lines in Nats spring training? I can't think of one.

1) bullpen
2) Wood, Green, etc... first camps
3) injury come backs for Gore, Cavalli, Doo[s/], House, Hassell.
4) Corey, Candy and Dom - leadership, bounce back?

[Smithian]

This season is already setting up infinity better than last year. At this point last year it was basically just "will they sign Soto or trade him? because the franchise is direction-less."

now, 3 of our 5 starting rotation are young pitchers with promise, the 4th is a reliable stopgap, and the 5th is paddy corbs, who will mostly just be there to tank every 5th day.

the lineup has one bright young C, a promising SS, a young 2B who still could be decent, and a cool story in meneses. we're going to suck, but at least we finally have something worth watching most nights. give me gray-gore-cavalli over adon-corbin-??? like it was last year.

I find this team much more interesting than I did 12 months ago today.

But I also see why a casual fan shrugs at the product.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I find this team much more interesting than I did 12 months ago today.

But I also see why a casual fan shrugs at the product.

This team is like following a minor league team.  It's an "oh, some of these guys could be pretty good."  Except they have to play against major league talent and charge major league prices.

[nobleisthyname]

This team is like following a minor league team.  It's an "oh, some of these guys could be pretty good."  Except they have to play against major league talent and charge major league prices.

Exactly this. And it's a minor league team without any real potential stars yet, those are all still in the low minors.

I think I would agree that this team is more interesting than last year's which was basically just Soto and hoping for development from Ruiz and Gray, but that's a really, really low bar. At least the last time we were the worst team in baseball we had Zimmerman to watch.

[UMDNats]

Exactly this. And it's a minor league team without any real potential stars yet, those are all still in the low minors.

I think I would agree that this team is more interesting than last year's which was basically just Soto and hoping for development from Ruiz and Gray, but that's a really, really low bar. At least the last time we were the worst team in baseball we had Zimmerman to watch.

Mackenzie Gore was on track to be runaway ROY last year before his injury and Abrams was a top-20 prospect in MLB. Those are absolutely real potential stars. This time last year we had 0 potential "stars" on the roster or in the system and now we have, you could argue, 4-5 (Gore, Abrams, Wood, Green).

[nobleisthyname]

Mackenzie Gore was on track to be runaway ROY last year before his injury and Abrams was a top-20 prospect in MLB. Those are absolutely real potential stars. This time last year we had 0 potential "stars" on the roster or in the system and now we have, you could argue, 4-5 (Gore, Abrams, Wood, Green).

The shine has worn off on both of those players. Of course that doesn't mean they won't still become stars, but the expectation isn't really there anymore like it is for say Wood. In fact, I would say Wood is really our only true potential star in the system at the moment. Green is a possibility too but he still has a very high bust potential, same with Susana.

To be clear I don't think they won't be viable major leaguers, I'm just not expecting them to be stars either.

[Smithian]

The shine has worn off on both of those players. Of course that doesn't mean they won't still become stars, but the expectation isn't really there anymore like it is for say Wood. In fact, I would say Wood is really our only true potential star in the system at the moment. Green is a possibility too but he still has a very high bust potential, same with Susana.

To be clear I don't think they won't be viable major leaguers, I'm just not expecting them to be stars either.

How is the shine off?

CJ Abrams will be starting short stop for next few years and may mess around and win a Gold Glove.

A healthy Mackenzie Gore is an All Star candidate. Every time he goes out and pitches and walks off without a trainer, I swoon.

[HalfSmokes]

How is the shine off?

CJ Abrams will be starting short stop for next few years and may mess around and win a Gold Glove.

A healthy Mackenzie Gore is an All Star candidate. Every time he goes out and pitches and walks off without a trainer, I swoon.

So all we need is another 8 position players, 4 starters, and a bullpen and we'll be all set. The last time we went through this there was something to look forward to almost every year from 2009 right up until they really started competing for the division. Now, we have an ok-ish farm and a couple of young guys who may work out, but who will never generate the kind of buzz that we had waiting for Strasburg and Harper to arrive.

[imref]

So all we need is another 8 position players, 4 starters, and a bullpen and we'll be all set. The last time we went through this there was something to look forward to almost every year from 2009 right up until they really started competing for the division. Now, we have an ok-ish farm and a couple of young guys who may work out, but who will never generate the kind of buzz that we had waiting for Strasburg and Harper to arrive.

uh, most teams don't have guys like Harper and Strasburg in their farm system. Those are generational talents.

We have an emerging core at the major league level (Ruiz, Abrams, Garcia), three potentially very good starters, and a lot of potential all-stars in A/A+. We're in a lot better shape than we were a year ago.

[UMDNats]

So all we need is another 8 position players, 4 starters, and a bullpen and we'll be all set. The last time we went through this there was something to look forward to almost every year from 2009 right up until they really started competing for the division. Now, we have an ok-ish farm and a couple of young guys who may work out, but who will never generate the kind of buzz that we had waiting for Strasburg and Harper to arrive.

there's a reason harper and strasburg were considered "generational"

they're the only #1 overall picks in the general sports culture zeitgeist since like...i don't even know when. James Wood is a top 15 prospect in MLB, which is about as good as you can get right now in terms of "potential" without being like a Harper. I just think we have a lot of interesting pieces and yeah we don't have the bona fide generational talent coming up, we have enough to keep it interesting.

but we're rebuilding with an ownership group who wants to cut bait ASAP, a lame duck manager and a lame duck GM who is 15 years behind the rest of the league in terms of evaluating players. so that dampens the excitement a bit.

[nfotiu]

there's a reason harper and strasburg were considered "generational"

they're the only #1 overall picks in the general sports culture zeitgeist since like...i don't even know when. James Wood is a top 15 prospect in MLB, which is about as good as you can get right now in terms of "potential" without being like a Harper. I just think we have a lot of interesting pieces and yeah we don't have the bona fide generational talent coming up, we have enough to keep it interesting.

but we're rebuilding with an ownership group who wants to cut bait ASAP, a lame duck manager and a lame duck GM who is 15 years behind the rest of the league in terms of evaluating players. so that dampens the excitement a bit.

I agree with all of that, and that last part is a real downer to me too.   

This is going to be a real test of the Lerner's legacy.   If they can sell quickly for what they can get, then I think they left us with an ok situation.   If we drag on a couple more years like this, it's going to effect player development and engagement, and they'll be remembered for leaving the city a team they ran into the ground.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I agree with all of that, and that last part is a real downer to me too.   

This is going to be a real test of the Lerner's legacy.   If they can sell quickly for what they can get, then I think they left us with an ok situation.   If we drag on a couple more years like this, it's going to effect player development and engagement, and they'll be remembered for leaving the city a team they ran into the ground.

or, just maybe, Rizzo and the ownership are on a potentially successful path with the deals they have made and the drafting they've done.  I think it was Svrluga in his chat that said that Ted prompted the exploration of sell the team or a stake of it, while Mark was not so keen on the idea.  No clue about Mark's sisters and their spouses, but it entirely possible that the interest in keeping the team is more up for discussion with the next generation and not Mark's. 

All we know for sure is that, after the sell off at the trade deadline in 2021, the team has not tried to patch together an immediate contender with long-term free agents or trade minor leaguers for immediate major league help. Implicit in the Soto deal is perhaps a write-off of 2023 and 2024 if you believe they were saying "we can't contend before Soto is a free agent, and he's not willing to sign at our price, so let's get what we can and revisit this after 2024."  Not completely unreasonable to think 2022 and 2023 were not patchable due to so many holes even if Soto were on board.

So, with non-contention built in after the 2021 sell off, what's the evidence that Rizzo is not trying to build a team with high potential in the 2024-26 time frame?  We currently have 4 out of the 7 guys we acquired moving 3 superstars as regulars or rotation pieces (Gore, Abrams, Gray, and Ruiz), with another projected to be on a 2023/2024 time frame (Hassell). While Carrillo looks like a bust and Casey was a long shot that didn't pan out, Woods has not shown any indication of being less than and Susana has not had anything but outstanding for age and level performance so far. 

Rizzo does love the upside over safety. That's the profile of Wood, Green, Susana, and most of the internationals. House and Hassell are less safe than we thought when acquired due to injury and maybe some exposure in the AA Eastern League, but it's not hard to figure that there's an upside core that, with a couple of hits, would be something to start complementing with FAs, right around the time Corbin's contract is done and Stras's is nearly done. That sounds like a plan.  LEt's see if the ownership is a problem when Ruiz and Abrams start getting expensive and there are unplugged holes around whatever system products are up with the team at that time.

To me, that seems a lot better than 2007 - 09. There was no light at the end of the tunnel at that time. Even Stras by his lonesome was just one piece. Now, I've not even mentioned Cavalli or Garcia as pieces, nor any of the Vacqueros or other signings.  There's just a lot more potential now than then, so I don't see the lack of filling out the roster with assorted long term signings before we get down to 4 or so big holes as indicating a bad=faith plan.

[IanRubbish]

There are things to look for at the team level, even though they've pretty much locked up last place.

First, stolen base success rate across the league is 81% this Spring, up from 72% last Spring and 75% in the Regular Season.  The Nats are solid here with 15 steals and players like Downs, Abrams, and Garrett.   But they don't walk or get on base enough to take advantage of this.  Darnell Coles has been successful in developing a put the ball in play approach, but with the remarkable lack of power that ends up with a lot of groundouts.  If they don't steal when they get to 1st there will be a huge number of double plays this year.

Pitcher health.  MLB starters, minor league starters, MLB relievers and everyone in between have been getting injured the last few years.  Gore, Cavalli, and Gray each making at least 25 starts would be a big change from recent years.

Pitcher control.  The top prospects and MLB level pitchers have been walking everyone, leading to short outings and high pitches per IP.  Last year, Nats starters were dead last in walks given up and 28th in innings pitched.  In the very small sample size of this Spring, they've given up the fewest walks. 

The team will be awful because it has no power pitchers nor power hitters, so the other teams won't be striking out much and there will be few HRs.  But this team also is one of the least creative with strategy, and many decisions are driven by Lerners cheapness which then get explained to fans in exceptionally poor spin by Rizzo.   The things I mention are interesting to us as diehards, and could bode well for the future, but I get sports talk and casual fans not hanging on to whether starters can reduce their pitches per IP.

[HalfSmokes]

or, just maybe, Rizzo and the ownership are on a potentially successful path with the deals they have made and the drafting they've done.  I think it was Svrluga in his chat that said that Ted prompted the exploration of sell the team or a stake of it, while Mark was not so keen on the idea.  No clue about Mark's sisters and their spouses, but it entirely possible that the interest in keeping the team is more up for discussion with the next generation and not Mark's. 

All we know for sure is that, after the sell off at the trade deadline in 2021, the team has not tried to patch together an immediate contender with long-term free agents or trade minor leaguers for immediate major league help. Implicit in the Soto deal is perhaps a write-off of 2023 and 2024 if you believe they were saying "we can't contend before Soto is a free agent, and he's not willing to sign at our price, so let's get what we can and revisit this after 2024."  Not completely unreasonable to think 2022 and 2023 were not patchable due to so many holes even if Soto were on board.

So, with non-contention built in after the 2021 sell off, what's the evidence that Rizzo is not trying to build a team with high potential in the 2024-26 time frame?  We currently have 4 out of the 7 guys we acquired moving 3 superstars as regulars or rotation pieces (Gore, Abrams, Gray, and Ruiz), with another projected to be on a 2023/2024 time frame (Hassell). While Carrillo looks like a bust and Casey was a long shot that didn't pan out, Woods has not shown any indication of being less than and Susana has not had anything but outstanding for age and level performance so far. 

Rizzo does love the upside over safety. That's the profile of Wood, Green, Susana, and most of the internationals. House and Hassell are less safe than we thought when acquired due to injury and maybe some exposure in the AA Eastern League, but it's not hard to figure that there's an upside core that, with a couple of hits, would be something to start complementing with FAs, right around the time Corbin's contract is done and Stras's is nearly done. That sounds like a plan.  LEt's see if the ownership is a problem when Ruiz and Abrams start getting expensive and there are unplugged holes around whatever system products are up with the team at that time.

To me, that seems a lot better than 2007 - 09. There was no light at the end of the tunnel at that time. Even Stras by his lonesome was just one piece. Now, I've not even mentioned Cavalli or Garcia as pieces, nor any of the Vacqueros or other signings.  There's just a lot more potential now than then, so I don't see the lack of filling out the roster with assorted long term signings before we get down to 4 or so big holes as indicating a bad=faith plan.

I fail to see how driving away all but the most die hard fans is a successful path. Are they trying to be the Marlins? That will make it easier to get good tickets cheap, but I wouldn't call it successful

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The team will be awful because it has no power pitchers nor power hitters, so the other teams won't be striking out much and there will be few HRs. 

FWIW, Cavalli has a very high K rate again.  Not so much last year, but so far, he might be the K generator. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I fail to see how driving away all but the most die hard fans is a successful path. Are they trying to be the Marlins? That will make it easier to get good tickets cheap, but I wouldn't call it successful

you've built into your expectations an expectation of failure.  It's not unreasonable to say one outcome is that there's little improvement from Gray, that at least one if not both of Cavalli and / or Gore busts, there's a lot fo regression for Meneses, and that there's little progression among Abrams, Ruiz, and Garcia.  That would certainly drive away fans. That said, I'm not sure that's more likely than a rosy scenario with one or two of Dom / Candy /Corey having bounceback years, the trio of Abrams, Ruiz, and Garcia following a normal age path and improving, a middling rotation led by both Cavalli and Gore with high 3 / low 4 ERAs stabilized by Williams and Gray around 4.4-4.8, and still considerable mashing from Meneses even if not as good as August and September. That's better than a 55 win team, and might be closer to what the 2010 team looked like. That can get some attention back, especially with the Wiz /Caps/United on the downsidde and the Commies not getting going until late July. 

[IanRubbish]

I fail to see how driving away all but the most die hard fans is a successful path. Are they trying to be the Marlins? That will make it easier to get good tickets cheap, but I wouldn't call it successful

Exactly.

[HalfSmokes]

you've built into your expectations an expectation of failure. It's not unreasonable to say one outcome is that there's little improvement from Gray, that at least one if not both of Cavalli and / or Gore busts, there's a lot fo regression for Meneses, and that there's little progression among Abrams, Ruiz, and Garcia.  That would certainly drive away fans. That said, I'm not sure that's more likely than a rosy scenario with one or two of Dom / Candy /Corey having bounceback years, the trio of Abrams, Ruiz, and Garcia following a normal age path and improving, a middling rotation led by both Cavalli and Gore with high 3 / low 4 ERAs stabilized by Williams and Gray around 4.4-4.8, and still considerable mashing from Meneses even if not as good as August and September. That's better than a 55 win team, and might be closer to what the 2010 team looked like. That can get some attention back, especially with the Wiz /Caps/United on the downsidde and the Commies not getting going until late July. 

They are +25,000 to win the NL East and +3000 to make the playoffs and their over/under is 59.5 wins. I'd say the expectation is failure this year.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

They are +25,000 to win the NL East and +3000 to make the playoffs and their over/under is 59.5 wins. I'd say the expectation is failure this year.

Sure. I'm not saying this year they are likely to be much better than that.  But the original post of yours to which I responded was:

This is going to be a real test of the Lerner's legacy.   If they can sell quickly for what they can get, then I think they left us with an ok situation.   If we drag on a couple more years like this, it's going to effect player development and engagement, and they'll be remembered for leaving the city a team they ran into the ground.

Your post talked about multiple years and the Lerner legacy, to which I replied that their actions since 2021 trade deadline do not indicate a lack of plan to get this team interesting and better.
You replied

I fail to see how driving away all but the most die hard fans is a successful path

, which is a reply about their overall approach, not just 2023.  That's an assumption that their  actions will not result in ultimate success, and I replied it's just as likely that they will have some surprisingly good outcomes as every move plays out with top prospects and players missing reasonable expectations for development.

[HalfSmokes]

Sure. I'm not saying this year they are likely to be much better than that.  But the original post of yours to which I responded was:Your post talked about multiple years and the Lerner legacy, to which I replied that their actions since 2021 trade deadline do not indicate a lack of plan to get this team interesting and better.
You replied , which is a reply about their overall approach, not just 2023.  That's an assumption that their  actions will not result in ultimate success, and I replied it's just as likely that they will have some surprisingly good outcomes as every move plays out with top prospects and players missing reasonable expectations for development.

My assumption is that our farm isn't really any better than anyone else's and that anyone in the low minors is a crapshoot. They've stripped the major league product as bare as they possibly can and are trying to sell a rebuild. That worked really well before, but we had a few things going for us. First, we had generational talent in the minors and second the team was new enough that you could believe that once they got good, they would try to stay competitive. Now you've got a situation that resembles the Marlins after their runs