Finnegan: more value keeping or trading?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Maybe Rizzo's best post-2019 move.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/01/23/kyle-finnegan-nationals/

His four-seam fastball, hard with a good amount of horizontal movement, stood out to those analyzing data in the front office. Same with how his slider could pair with heaters at the top of the strike zone. Jay Robertson, one of General Manager Mike Rizzo’s more trusted scouts, watched Finnegan a bunch in the Class AAA Pacific Coast League and liked what he saw. The analytics lined up with traditional scouting, leading the Nationals to jump the line and offer Finnegan a major league contract. It stands as maybe their most savvy move since they won the World Series in 2019.
 
...
In 157⅓ innings for Washington, Finnegan’s adjusted ERA — referred to as ERA+ — is 19 points better than league average. In 2022, he walked considerably fewer batters and finished with a 3.51 ERA in 66 appearances, the second most on the club. He and the team recently agreed on $2.352 million salary for 2023, which could make him its highest-paid reliever.
...
Come July, he could be one of their more intriguing trade candidates, offering a late-inning arm with two full years of team control remaining. But in the meantime, he is likely to share high-leverage innings with Harvey and Carl Edwards Jr., a veteran who arrived on a minor league deal before outperforming expectations last season.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

The Dr Jeckyll Finnegan certainly. 

Maybe Rizzo's best post-2019 move.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/01/23/kyle-finnegan-nationals/

[Senatorswin]

Maybe Rizzo's best post-2019 move.

This from the article:

"Come July, he could be one of their more intriguing trade candidates, offering a late-inning arm with two full years of team control remaining."

Why would you want to trade Finnegan with two years of team control at the trade deadline? That doesn't make sense. If he continues to pitch well he would be part of the turnaround. The type of player you want to build with.

[Slateman]

Because Finnegan is going to be 32 by the end of next year. You absolute trade him if someone offers anything for him.

If you can't replace Kyle Finnegan with someone in your system, your system is trash and you wont be winning enough games for it to matter if you have him or not.

[Senatorswin]

Because Finnegan is going to be 32 by the end of next year. You absolute trade him if someone offers anything for him.

If you can't replace Kyle Finnegan with someone in your system, your system is trash and you wont be winning enough games for it to matter if you have him or not.

He's 31 years old. That is not old, especially for a reliever. What would they expect to get for him that would help the team more than he would. He's what you want during the rebuild. Totally ridiculous to think you would get something at the trade deadline that would help you more than a solid reliever.

[Slateman]

He's 31 years old. That is not old, especially for a reliever. What would they expect to get for him that would help the team more than he would. He's what you want during the rebuild. Totally ridiculous to think you would get something at the trade deadline that would help you more than a solid reliever.

You take anything for a guy who will give you nothing the next time you're competitive. Having a decent middle reliever on a 95+ loss team has no value.

[Natsinpwc]

Depends on the return.   

[HalfSmokes]

Depends on the return.   

He’s a middle reliever in his 30s pitching for team rise to the level of mediocre in a few years and won’t be competing for a very long time. Get what you can for him

[Natsinpwc]

He’s a middle reliever in his 30s pitching for team rise to the level of mediocre in a few years and won’t be competing for a very long time. Get what you can for him

There’s no benefit to tanking this year.  Team needs to try and stay competitive to win back some fans.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

There’s no benefit to tanking this year.  Team needs to try and stay competitive to win back some fans.

keeping or trading Finnegan isn't about tanking.  A reliever being moved isn't as important as, say, trading Turner, Soto, Bell. Those were abandon short term hope moves. Finnegan will be 34 or 35 and beyond team control when, optimistically, guys like Green, House, Wood, and Susana get their shot.  Hard to see a contender before then.  Getting something that may overlap with  the next wave of prospects makes sense, even if it is a bit of a long shot that the Nats will hit on the pick up.

[Senatorswin]

Again, Finnegan is 31 years old. He's a dependable consistent reliever who's had 11 saves in both the last two seasons. He's the type of guy you can turn to when your closer has pitched 3 days in a row or gets hurt. He's the guy who's part of the solution in two or three years when you're ready to repeat again. He doesn't cost much at this point. What are going to get for him? If you trade him you get back somebody you hope gives you about what he's already giving you if you're lucky.

The guys you trade in July are older guys hanging on who can help a contending team down the stretch or guys you're not going to be able to sign.

[Slateman]

He's 31. This is as valuable as he's going to get.  He is the definition of an older guy who can help a contending team down the stretch.

His value will never be higher than it is now. Take what you can get. His role as "backup closer" can go to any rando you want. There's a zero percent chance of this team pitching their closer three days in a row.

[HondoKillebrew]

He's 31. This is as valuable as he's going to get.  He is the definition of an older guy who can help a contending team down the stretch.

His value will never be higher than it is now. Take what you can get. His role as "backup closer" can go to any rando you want. There's a zero percent chance of this team pitching their closer three days in a row.

I think this is right. And as much as we legitimately criticize Rizzo for the poor player development situation, I do generally trust his trading skills. 

[Senatorswin]

He's 31. This is as valuable as he's going to get.  He is the definition of an older guy who can help a contending team down the stretch.

His value will never be higher than it is now. Take what you can get. His role as "backup closer" can go to any rando you want. There's a zero percent chance of this team pitching their closer three days in a row.

Finnegan can be a very valuable reliever for the next 5 years easy. The value of a 7th or 8th inning reliever should not be minimized. The Oriole relievers were a huge reason for their success last year. With starters only going 6 innings the back end of the bullpen is critical. Ask the Red Sox how valuable a good bullpen is. Their season was ruined by a bad pen. There's no reason to trade him.

[Slateman]

Finnegan can be a very valuable reliever for the next 5 years easy. The value of a 7th or 8th inning reliever should not be minimized. The Oriole relievers were a huge reason for their success last year. With starters only going 6 innings the back end of the bullpen is critical. Ask the Red Sox how valuable a good bullpen is. Their season was ruined by a bad pen. There's no reason to trade him.

Lol, Finnegan will not be valuable for five years. His fastba velo is going to drop over the next couple seasons, at which point, he's done. Father Time is undefeated.

Second, he's a free agent after the 2025 season. So he's gone by the time this team is good.

Third, Finnegan isnt a back end of the bullpen reliever on a competitive team. He shouldnt be even on this team. He's middle relief. Which is important to have but not so irreplaceable that rebuilding teams shouldnt be looking to move them.

Again, value will never be higher. We should move him and anyone else that wont be here or good when this team is next competitive (2027+)

[Senatorswin]

Lol, Finnegan will not be valuable for five years. His fastba velo is going to drop over the next couple seasons, at which point, he's done. Father Time is undefeated.

Second, he's a free agent after the 2025 season. So he's gone by the time this team is good.

Third, Finnegan isnt a back end of the bullpen reliever on a competitive team. He shouldnt be even on this team. He's middle relief. Which is important to have but not so irreplaceable that rebuilding teams shouldnt be looking to move them.

Again, value will never be higher. We should move him and anyone else that wont be here or good when this team is next competitive (2027+)

Finnegan has 11 saves each of the last two years. He has been as consistent as a reliever can get. He's absolutely a back end type pitcher on a good team. Many relievers are good into their mid 30's. A good team has to have reliable relievers which he is. He fills a valuable role for the Nats but what do you think you're going to get for him? It's ridiculous to think the Nats should look to trade every asset they have at the trade deadline. Some are keepers.

[UMDNats]

Finnegan has 11 saves each of the last two years. He has been as consistent as a reliever can get. He's absolutely a back end type pitcher on a good team. Many relievers are good into their mid 30's. A good team has to have reliable relievers which he is. He fills a valuable role for the Nats but what do you think you're going to get for him? It's ridiculous to think the Nats should look to trade every asset they have at the trade deadline. Some are keepers.

holding onto a reliever with the expectation that he will be good in 5 years is absolutely one way you freak up a rebuild. give me a list of relievers -  not closers, just like regular dudes like Finnegan - who are good 5+ years in a row in their 30s. even banking on an elite closer being good 5 years from now is LOL dumb.

they'll get a nice top 20 prospect for him at the deadline like they should. get rid of anyone you can't count on to be a contributor in 5 years.

[UMDNats]

Lol, Finnegan will not be valuable for five years. His fastba velo is going to drop over the next couple seasons, at which point, he's done. Father Time is undefeated.

Second, he's a free agent after the 2025 season. So he's gone by the time this team is good.

Third, Finnegan isnt a back end of the bullpen reliever on a competitive team. He shouldnt be even on this team. He's middle relief. Which is important to have but not so irreplaceable that rebuilding teams shouldnt be looking to move them.

Again, value will never be higher. We should move him and anyone else that wont be here or good when this team is next competitive (2027+)

I love that because he was simply OK - a 119 ERA+ is like, decent reliever level - he's now a CLOSER because he had some saves on a last-place team with a bunch of nobodies in the bullpen.

[Natsinpwc]

holding onto a reliever with the expectation that he will be good in 5 years is absolutely one way you freak up a rebuild. give me a list of relievers -  not closers, just like regular dudes like Finnegan - who are good 5+ years in a row in their 30s. even banking on an elite closer being good 5 years from now is LOL dumb.

they'll get a nice top 20 prospect for him at the deadline like they should. get rid of anyone you can't count on to be a contributor in 5 years.

He’s not good but you will get a top 20 prospect for him at the deadline. LOL. Maybe from a team with a poor system.

We will see how he does and what offers he gets.  He’s on a one year deal so it’s not realistic to discuss having him for five years. Same with Hunter Harvey and Carl Jr. You need to keep some guys around so the fans at least think you are trying for .500.

[Slateman]

He’s not good but you will get a top 20 prospect for him at the deadline. LOL. Maybe from a team with a poor system.

We will see how he does and what offers he gets.  He’s on a one year deal so it’s not realistic to discuss having him for five years. Same with Hunter Harvey and Carl Jr. You need to keep some guys around so the fans at least think you are trying for .500.

Finnegan is under control for three more seasons.

No fan is under the illusion that this team is trying for .500

[Natsinpwc]

So hope he does well and has some value. If he is a bum then he will stay. If he is effective as closer does not matter if he deserves the role.

[Senatorswin]

He’s not good but you will get a top 20 prospect for him at the deadline. LOL. Maybe from a team with a poor system.

We will see how he does and what offers he gets.  He’s on a one year deal so it’s not realistic to discuss having him for five years. Same with Hunter Harvey and Carl Jr. You need to keep some guys around so the fans at least think you are trying for .500.

That's a large part of my point. What are you going to get from him. Nobody that's going to make a difference. But he will be valuable for the Nats. The Orioles didn't have a decent starting rotation last year. But they only averaged 5 innings a start. The backend of the bullpen was lights out. In todays baseball the setup guys are what a team needs to keep when they get a good one. There are a lot of guys in their mid 30's who have been consistently good for 5 years or more. Wouldn't the Nats of loved to have Blake Treinen the years since they traded him. He's 34. Liam Hendricks kicking butt getting holds the last 4 years. He's 33 and going strong. Ryan Pressly has been getting holds for years and the last couple saves too. He's 34 and going strong. Again, in today's game those are the guys you hold onto.

[Slateman]

Lol, those are literally the best relievers in the game. Finnegan isnt them.

Meanwhile, Jake McGee, Jeurys Familia, Joe Kelley, Alex Colome, Bryan Shaw, Trevor May, Jake Diekman, Matt Barnes, and Will Smith were all once good and fell off a cliff.

Relief pitcher is the most volatile postion in baseball, if not all of sports. Guys flame out all the time. Four years ago, Kirby Yates, Seth Lugo, Brandon Workman, Felipe Vazquez, Arolids Chapman, Nick Anderson, Hansel Robles, and Ken Giles were in the top 10 best relievers. Yea .... hows that working out now?

Someone is offering you a top 30 prospect in their system for Finnegan, you absolutely take it. Then you call up someone and see if they have the goods. Thats what developmental teams do.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He’s not good but you will get a top 20 prospect for him at the deadline. LOL. Maybe from a team with a poor system.

he's a valuable trade chip to a contender with a need for a deeper bullpen. You can get back decent prospects for that.  Not MLB top 100, but guys like Riley Adams, who we got for Brad Hand in a bad Hand year. These deals are done all the time.

It's not crazy to say a bullpen piece is more valuable to a contender than to team that can't field a major league level lineup.  And it's absolutely right to say that knowing a guy is an effective reliever in year 0 (now, pre-season) tells you next to nothing about how he will be in year 3 or beyond.  It is the position with the most volatility. More than starters (says the guy with Corbin and Strasburg on one of his teams and Chris Sale and Nick Pivetta on his other team). An effective starter with control and strikeout ability or who keeps the ball on the ground is pretty predictable up until the injury; relievers flash hot and cold even without an injury.

[Section214]

If he has trade value right now to get someone like Jo Adell, I would do it in a heartbeat. The only better scenario is he has a great first half of the season and some team trades us a haul at the deadline.