Author Topic: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings 2023  (Read 567 times)

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Offline Elvir Ovcina

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While in general the "show me something in AA before I get excited" is a prudent rule, you can't ignore that folks who get paid to evaluate players just rated Wood #11 in all baseball.  To the extent he's at low level and that generates uncertainty, you can also say his ceiling has to be pretty darn high to be ranked above AA/AAA guys.

If Aaron Judge had hit 35 homers last year instead of 62, Wood would be ranked #75. 

Baseball people are dumb and visually obsessed on lazy comps.  Wood's a 6'7" corner outfielder with fringe CF potential and a lot of power. Therefore in pea-brain land he's more than infinitesimally likely to actually be Aaron Judge.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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He has to be added to the 40 before the 2024 Rule 5.  That doesn't mean he needs to be promoted to the majors then if he's not ready.  He'll only be 23 then, so that's hardly bust territory unless there are huge, huge red flags.
doesn't mean he has to be promoted, but I assume that, by 2024, barring a bad season that sets his development back, he more likely comes up not later than the end of the season.  Late in the season.  More or less, adding him at that point, he's not getting sent back down even if he has an 0-fer a week or two. Not burning an option if he stays up through the end of the year and get to see him before the start of the following year.  Gonna burn an option in 2025 if he's not ready, anyway. The time for a "taste" of the big leagues and a chance to travel with the big club is late '24.

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Online Natsinpwc

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If Cole Henry could make it as a half decent starter that would be a huge lift for the organization.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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If Cole Henry could make it as a half decent starter that would be a huge lift for the organization.

If he stays fully healthy I think he’s a legit #2. 

If he can be an above average reliever good for 40 innings a year I’d take that too though

Online Natsinpwc

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If he stays fully healthy I think he’s a legit #2. 

If he can be an above average reliever good for 40 innings a year I’d take that too though
A number 4 starter on a decent staff would be nice.

Offline Senatorswin

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6 of the top 10 are outfielders. If 3 of them can pan out we'll have a good young outfield.

I realize it could never be as good as Nook Logan, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge though.

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6 of the top 10 are outfielders. If 3 of them can pan out we'll have a good young outfield.

I realize it could never be as good as Nook Logan, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge though.

At least the current crop of recent prospects doesn’t seem to be rife with well-documented questionable character issues.

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If he stays fully healthy I think he’s a legit #2. 

If he can be an above average reliever good for 40 innings a year I’d take that too though

he's a huge question mark coming back from TOS. Our starting pitching prospects are all massive question marks, with this likely being make or break years for Dennaburg and Rutledge. Hopefully Cavalli can at least be a #2 or 3.

here's Prospects1500 source: https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-east/nationals/washington-nationals-top-50-prospects-2023/

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BA now has the Nats' farm system ranked as 7th best in the league.

https://nationalsprospects.com/2023/01/the-ba-prospect-handbook-part-one-12/

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In the prospects-by-position rankings, the Nats fared much better as well:
Brady House – #24 shortstop
Robert Hassell – #7 centerfielder
Elijah Green – #8 centerfielder
James Wood – #1 corner outfielder
Cade Cavalli – #10 RHP
Jarlin Susana – #33 RHP

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Kind of an "ouch" on House that a guy drafted in near the top of the draft 2 years ago is only the 24th best prospect at his position.  Wasn't he thought of as probably the best SS after Mayer?

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Kind of an "ouch" on House that a guy drafted in near the top of the draft 2 years ago is only the 24th best prospect at his position.  Wasn't he thought of as probably the best SS after Mayer?
I mean, to be fair, I dont know how you predict an 18 year old getting a debilitating back injury.

Offline welch

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he's a huge question mark coming back from TOS. Our starting pitching prospects are all massive question marks, with this likely being make or break years for Dennaburg and Rutledge. Hopefully Cavalli can at least be a #2 or 3.

here's Prospects1500 source: https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-east/nationals/washington-nationals-top-50-prospects-2023/

TOS looks like the worst possible injury to a pitcher. Like the modern-day severity of rotator-cuff and "throwing your arm away" that hit Herb Score, our own Tom Cheney, and Tommy John.

Henry looked superb, but now he's in the Strasburg area of doubt. Sadly.

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I mean, to be fair, I dont know how you predict an 18 year old getting a debilitating back injury.

and who has apparently disappeared since last August. We won't seemingly know anything about him until we see if he shows up to camp next month.

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MLB Pipeline OF top ten (arrival year in parentheses)

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-outfield-prospects-2023?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

1. Corbin Carroll, Dbacks (2023)
2. Jordan Walker, Cards (23)
3. Jackson Chourio, Brewers (24)
4. Druw Jones, Dback (26)
5. James Wood, Nats (25)
6. Zac Veen, Rockies (24)
7. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (24)
8. Sal Frelick, Brewers (23)
9. Robert Hassell III, Nats (24)
10. Colton Cowser, Orioles (2023)

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Most to prove: Hassell
Hassell endured a choppy 2022 season in which the Padres sent him to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade, he slashed .273/.357/.407 with 11 homers and 24 steals between High-A and Double-A, then broke his right hamate in the Arizona Fall League. Some evaluators are all-in on his bat and believe he'll develop at least 20-homer power while remaining in center field, though others wonder if he's more of a tweener with less pop and better suited for a corner.
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Keep an eye on: Elijah Green, Nationals
Green had the highest ceiling in the 2022 Draft with a combination of double-plus raw power and speed to go with plus center-field range and arm strength. The son of former NFL Pro Bowl tight end Eric Green does come with swing-and-miss issues and had a 40.4 percent strikeout rate in his Rookie-ball debut.

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MLB Pipeline 100 is out - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

17. James Wood
35. Robert Hassell III
46. Elijah Green
58. Cade Cavalli

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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there does seem to be a consensus forming that Wood is a top 10-20 guy.

Offline Senatorswin

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there does seem to be a consensus forming that Wood is a top 10-20 guy.

I thought he was going to start in Wilmington but he's on the Fredericksburg roster. I guess I'll be going to Fredericksburg to see what the fuss is about. Wood is the number 3 prospect on the Nationals site behind Hassell III and Green.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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I thought he was going to start in Wilmington but he's on the Fredericksburg roster. I guess I'll be going to Fredericksburg to see what the fuss is about. Wood is the number 3 prospect on the Nationals site behind Hassell III and Green.

The team top 30 lists are still from last year

Offline Senatorswin

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The team top 30 lists are still from last year

I wonder what would project him above Hassell III and Green over the off-season. I guess we'll see if they update the Nats site at some point.

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Keith Law's top 100 is out. Five Nats made the cut.

#16 James Wood
#35 Elijah Green
#43 Robert Hassell
#71 Cade Cavalli
#85 Brady House

https://theathletic.com/4132943/2023/01/30/top-100-mlb-prospects-2023-keith-law/

Offline zimm_da_kid

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He wrote that house has 35-40 homer upside

Online Natsinpwc

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He wrote that house has 35-40 homer upside
If he really exists.

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He wrote that house has 35-40 homer upside

career or annually?

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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If he really exists.

"Brady House" and "Mason Denaburg" are the same dude.  Pretty good con if you can run it.