Author Topic: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful  (Read 391 times)

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Offline imref

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Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Topic Start: December 16, 2022, 10:32:26 PM »
Taken from Reddit: The combined WAR for all team's first round picks since 2015. One poster noted that of ALL National's draft picks since 2015, the only one with positive WAR is Koda Glover (0.2). Fedde has the same, but was a 2014 pick.


Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #1: December 16, 2022, 11:18:50 PM »
Seems like the Red Sox, Cubs, Dbacks and Pirates should have more good young players on their teams.

Offline imref

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #2: December 16, 2022, 11:20:45 PM »
Yeah. It does question why Arizona especially isn’t doing better. I guess it’s worth remembering that the draft is only one source of players. Maybe the other teams don’t do as well in Latin America?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #3: December 17, 2022, 12:34:37 AM »
Seems like the Red Sox, Cubs, Dbacks and Pirates should have more good young players on their teams.
top 4 teams have won 5 world series since 2017.  If you want to say 2017*, they beat one of the other top 4 teams that year.  Bregman, a 2015 draft choice, was on that team. 

Edit - stat is right for the Red Sox.  Per bWAR, it's 15.7 for Benintendi, 4.5 for Tanner Houck, and 0.1 for Tristan Casas.

Offline hotshot

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #4: December 17, 2022, 07:47:25 AM »
I'm sure Mike could explain this all away.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #5: December 17, 2022, 09:26:20 AM »
Fedde in 2014 has a .2 bWAR and no pick in 2013, so ten years of picks and a net bWAR below zero.

Offline imref

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #6: December 17, 2022, 10:23:33 AM »
I'm sure Mike could explain this all away.

Yeah, world series trophy in 2019.

Offline welch

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #7: December 18, 2022, 06:05:24 PM »
Suggests that collective WAR is slippery, or that we missed all the World Series wins by Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay and Arizona.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #8: December 18, 2022, 06:13:35 PM »
Suggests that collective WAR is slippery, or that we missed all the World Series wins by Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay and Arizona.

The top teams on the list all have deep playoff runs, but you still have to supplement with free agents

Offline Slateman

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #9: December 18, 2022, 06:27:24 PM »
The top teams on the list all have deep playoff runs, but you still have to supplement with free agents
But its becoming increasingly apparent that drafting well and developing players goes a lot further than free agent signings.



See that Astros team there? Yea, let Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel walk. Let WS hero Charlie Morton walk. Let superstar Gerritt Cole walk. Let WS MVP George Springer walk. Let generational talent Carlos Correa walk.

But no, lets keep lamenting that we're bad because we lost all those premium talents . . .

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #10: December 18, 2022, 07:13:36 PM »
The Nats have been terrible the past three years. They are losing a generation of fans. The goodwill will not last much longer. As noted they cannot draft higher than 7th. Is there really much difference between drafting 7th and say 12th?  Give the fans some hope.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #11: December 18, 2022, 08:37:59 PM »
The Nats have been terrible the past three years. They are losing a generation of fans. The goodwill will not last much longer. As noted they cannot draft higher than 7th. Is there really much difference between drafting 7th and say 12th?  Give the fans some hope.

Sucking with young guys seems more hopefully than bringing in a bunch of third tier veterans hoping to get to .500

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #12: December 18, 2022, 09:53:35 PM »
Sucking with young guys seems more hopefully than bringing in a bunch of third tier veterans hoping to get to .500
Well sure but we are talking about short term contracts that will not block anyone. Like LF and a SP. 

Offline machpost

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #13: December 19, 2022, 08:35:33 AM »
Rizzo seems to have a lot of fans but I can't imagine this front office remaining intact once (or if) we see a change in ownership.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #14: December 19, 2022, 08:47:50 AM »
Rizzo seems to have a lot of fans but I can't imagine this front office remaining intact once (or if) we see a change in ownership.
Leonsis seems like the front runner. Leonsis is known for sticking with front office guys for too long. I would expect Rizzo to be the GM in 2024, at a minimum

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #15: December 19, 2022, 11:35:12 AM »
But its becoming increasingly apparent that drafting well and developing players goes a lot further than free agent signings.

Not really arguing about the importance of development with you, but that graph shows only 3 of the teams of the 12 playoff teams giving half their roster spots to draft or developed guys.  7 of the 12 were 6 or more players via free agency.  4 of the teams had over half their roster acquired through trade.  I'll guess a good chunk of the NYY were trades where draft / developed guys were used to acquire players. Rays  and SD have very few guys who were home grown. I'll guess Preller dealt prospects and TB churned guys off the major league roster for other teams prospects.

As for the Nats, a hypothetical 2025 roster of with Hassell, Ruiz, Abrams, Gore, Gray, maybe Wood, Adams or Millas, and thomas potentially still around would have 5-8 players off recent trades. Mason Thompson, maybe Carrillo, maybe a few others in the bullpen.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #16: December 19, 2022, 11:53:46 AM »
Not really arguing about the importance of development with you, but that graph shows only 3 of the teams of the 12 playoff teams giving half their roster spots to draft or developed guys.  7 of the 12 were 6 or more players via free agency.  4 of the teams had over half their roster acquired through trade.  I'll guess a good chunk of the NYY were trades where draft / developed guys were used to acquire players. Rays  and SD have very few guys who were home grown. I'll guess Preller dealt prospects and TB churned guys off the major league roster for other teams prospects.

As for the Nats, a hypothetical 2025 roster of with Hassell, Ruiz, Abrams, Gore, Gray, maybe Wood, Adams or Millas, and thomas potentially still around would have 5-8 players off recent trades. Mason Thompson, maybe Carrillo, maybe a few others in the bullpen.
Trading/waiver wire is part of development.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #17: December 19, 2022, 12:21:11 PM »
1. Draft and Develop good players using top draft picks and establish winning culture combining data with actual coaching
2. Keep 3-5 of those players as core pieces in the majors
3. Maintain a stockpile of 5-10 legitimately solid prospects
4. Trade from that stockpile to get actual MLB regulars/stars
5. Win on an annual basis

It's not hard at all and it makes me wonder how bad our FO is that they can't seem to figure it out. The Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, Guardians, Astros, Braves, etc. have all figured it out but it's too tough for Mark & Mike to get a handle on.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #18: December 19, 2022, 12:45:00 PM »
I think its not hard to say, but its hard to execute.

Offline Five Banners

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #19: December 19, 2022, 12:56:23 PM »
I think its not hard to say, but its hard to execute.

And the priority should be getting in front office people, changing as many times as needed. Leonsis has often shown to be the antithesis of that.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #20: December 19, 2022, 01:28:24 PM »
I think its not hard to say, but its hard to execute.
It’s almost like when you add up all the wins and losses for teams it goes to .500. Pretty clear in baseball that spending gives you a big advantage.  And several teams (now including the Nats) seem to not want to compete. Most however are just trying to figure it out. If you do go through a period of drafting, signing and developing very good players it pushes your payroll up and you have to make decisions.  And then your draft position worsens. It’s not easy or more teams would do it.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #21: December 19, 2022, 01:29:28 PM »
And the priority should be getting in front office people, changing as many times as needed. Leonsis has often shown to be the antithesis of that.
True. They probably need to start over with the Nats organization but he will point to the World Series title as reason to keep Rizzo.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #22: December 19, 2022, 01:36:27 PM »
I think its not hard to say, but its hard to execute.

Almost 1/3rd of the teams in the league have been able to figure it out, many of which operate at significantly lower payroll levels than we do. I could even count the Mets in there because they've forged a new path that is just to acquire good players as much as possible, something I would do if I was GM. More and more I have a hard time arguing that Rizzo is an "above average GM" when I can count like 10 teams that operate at a more efficient level than we ever have. Ted will give him a lifetime contract though.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #23: December 19, 2022, 01:58:21 PM »
Almost 1/3rd of the teams in the league have been able to figure it out, many of which operate at significantly lower payroll levels than we do. I could even count the Mets in there because they've forged a new path that is just to acquire good players as much as possible, something I would do if I was GM. More and more I have a hard time arguing that Rizzo is an "above average GM" when I can count like 10 teams that operate at a more efficient level than we ever have. Ted will give him a lifetime contract though.
Over the history of MLB time there have almost always been 1/3 of teams on top, 1/3 in the middle and 1/3 on the bottom.  The Phillies made the World Series largely by signing free agents. As the Mets are trying to do also. Same for the Padres. Drafting is important but let’s be honest. It’s largely a crapshoot. The Dodgers and maybe the Astros and Cards seem the only teams to consistently churn out quality players no matter where they draft. And signing Latin American kids at 15/16 is even more uncertain.

If all 32 teams figured it out what would happen?  There would still be divergence because some teams would spend more money.

How do you just draft good players including high schoolers who might be 5/6 years away from the majors?  Or sign Latin American kids who may be ten years away. There is no east formula for that. No magic data analytics. It’s mostly human judgment.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Yeah, the drafts really have been awful
« Reply #24: December 19, 2022, 02:00:37 PM »
How do you just draft good players including high schoolers who might be 5/6 years away from the majors?  Or sign Latin American kids who may be ten years away. There is no east formula for that. No magic data analytics. It’s mostly human judgment.

Dodgers seem to have figured that out. So have the Rays. The Yankees are pumping out tradeable players every year. Cleveland is constantly competitive. Why can't we, with the money to afford a $200 million payroll and all that player development costs, figure it out?