Author Topic: 2023 MLB Draft  (Read 25483 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #275: June 02, 2023, 10:09:21 AM »
Callis's mock. Suggests industry consensus is the nats take skenes even if the pirates pass on crews.

Quote
2. Nationals: Paul Skenes, RHP, Louisiana State (No. 2)

The Nationals are loaded with outfield prospects and need pitching, so what would they do if the Pirates pass on Crews? Most people in the industry think Washington would still take Skenes, whose strikeout rate (16.6 per nine innings) is just behind Ryan Wagner's all-time NCAA Division I record of 16.8 in 2003.
https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/2023-mlb-mock-draft-first-round-june-1?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Offline DCsOwn

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #276: June 02, 2023, 10:17:46 AM »
Callis's mock. Suggests industry consensus is the nats take skenes even if the pirates pass on crews.
https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/2023-mlb-mock-draft-first-round-june-1?t=mlb-draft-coverage

I genuinely think Rizzo's plan is to take Skenes and then make a competitive offer for Soto once he hits the market. I think that he views that as the way back to contention quickly.

Offline RD

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #277: June 02, 2023, 11:25:05 AM »
What are the success stories of other prospects striking out 50% of the time in low-A ball and then going on to have a productive major league career?

I'm legitimately asking btw, this isn't meant to be Elijah Green snark haha

I'm not aware of the numbers.

But I would throw caution to any long term numbers. The last 3 years have been a little different. A guy like Green(his age, not specifically his individual experience), missed time in 20-21 due to Covid. High school, travel ball, showcase circuits. Even when things resumed as normal, other players were shaking some rust off, so the competition wasn't the same. BA had an article about how bad baseball was in '21, even at the professional level. The lower the level, the worse the play was. I think getting rid of short season ball may have an impact as well. Green and someone like Cruz may have benefitted from that. Teams don't want to keep them down and wait for the GCL again, so they're forced to push them a bit. For "rawer" players, that's going to magnify issues.

Of course, there's the argument that good players adapt anyway. Jackson Holliday is a dude despite missing time at the same age. But not everyone is the same, and some take longer. I think most expected Green to take longer. Hes one I always expected would take 4/5 years, not fast tracked. I wouldn't even have a problem if he repeated Fredericksburg, probably like TJ White should have. You don't HAVE to move up a level every year. Repeating one for a little but the next year wouldn't be the worst thing IMO.

Online welch

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #278: June 02, 2023, 11:37:53 AM »
Agree with RD. Some teenagers take longer. Especially power hitters. Our own hero, Harmon Killebrew, signed for a bonus at 18, and then took fives years to make it as a regular with the Nats, and Killer was expected to be a Hall of Famer from his first full MLB season onward. (Tied Colavito for AL home run championship in 1959).

Plenty of time for Green to improve.


Offline Slateman

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #280: June 02, 2023, 04:31:28 PM »
"regularly 100+"

Theres no way that arm is gonna last

Offline DCsOwn

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Offline DCsOwn

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #282: June 02, 2023, 05:57:28 PM »
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1664752215980908546?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

These coaches genuinely don’t care a lick about these kids

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #283: June 02, 2023, 06:42:39 PM »
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Pirates take Skenes. He’s turning into the real star of this draft.

Offline DCsOwn

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #284: June 02, 2023, 07:07:06 PM »
https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1664768068034101248?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

101 on pitch 124.

If you could turn injuries off like it was a video game, he’d go one overall for sure.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #285: June 03, 2023, 07:02:48 PM »
https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1664768068034101248?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

101 on pitch 124.

If you could turn injuries off like it was a video game, he’d go one overall for sure.

Should we just preemptively get him TJ surgery after the draft lol

Offline NatsLSU

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #286: June 05, 2023, 06:39:24 PM »
Crews dominant in the Regional.

8/13 2 HRs and 4 RBIs in 3 games.

Offline imref

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #287: June 05, 2023, 07:45:03 PM »
ESPN's Kiley McDaniel slots the top of the draft class into his top-100 prospects:

- №13 Dylan Crews, LSU

- №19 Paul Skenes, LSU

- №21 Wyatt Langford, University of Florida

Offline RD

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #288: June 06, 2023, 12:47:56 PM »
"regularly 100+"

Theres no way that arm is gonna last

His average fastball is 98mph.

Gerrit Cole's is 97 at age 32, going on 33.

I don't think anyone expects him to keep 100 up forever. But guys have been able to maintain velocity deep into their careers. Certainly the odds are more in favor of him getting hurt at some point. That's any pitcher though. You don't need to shy away from extremely gifted ones. You think a college hitter is a safe route until you have JJ Bleday or Jacob Berry on your hands.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #289: June 06, 2023, 01:13:10 PM »
His average fastball is 98mph.

Gerrit Cole's is 97 at age 32, going on 33.

I don't think anyone expects him to keep 100 up forever. But guys have been able to maintain velocity deep into their careers. Certainly the odds are more in favor of him getting hurt at some point. That's any pitcher though. You don't need to shy away from extremely gifted ones. You think a college hitter is a safe route until you have JJ Bleday or Jacob Berry on your hands.


Is there a scenario where you would take Langford over Skenes?

Offline RD

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #290: June 06, 2023, 01:31:07 PM »
Is there a scenario where you would take Langford over Skenes?

For me, not really. To me, there's a clear top two, then a break.

The only way would be some type of major injury to Skenes and him still demanding $8mill.

I guess if Langford would sign for $5mill instead of $8mill and we were able to put thst money to use on a couple overshot deals in the next couple rounds but that's still a risk based on who's available. I'd prefer to lock in the elite talent. I know some put Langford in that top 2, or ahead of Skenes, but not IMO. And I'd doubt Langford would come in that low underslot just to go #2.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #291: June 06, 2023, 02:32:36 PM »
Is there a scenario where you would take Langford over Skenes?

I’d take Langford over Skenes. 

Crews: .432/.573/.736/1.310
Langford: .387/.511/.799/1.310


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #292: June 06, 2023, 02:54:06 PM »
why I wondered if it is a close question is McDaniel's prospect rating showing them pretty close (#19 v #21). No disrespect to Skenes, but more a surprise how close Langford is. Just one evaluator, but . . .

Offline imref

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #293: June 06, 2023, 03:03:29 PM »
Seems there's not a big gap between Crews, Langford, Jenkins and Clark.  The draft may come down to teams calculating whether or not they think Crews is worth a premium bonus over the others.  I'd guess Rizzo has Skenes as his overall #1 just because of the way Rizzo prioritizes starting pitching.

I wonder if anyone will try and draft Ethan Holliday if he can figure out how to graduate this year. :)

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #294: June 07, 2023, 07:50:15 AM »
Maybe the Pirates have that discussion, but I'd be shocked if the Nats take that approach. It hasn't been Rizzo's MO and there is a sizeable gap there between Crews and the others.

Offline DCsOwn

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #295: June 07, 2023, 11:43:58 AM »
From Callis today:

Everybody keeps comparing Skenes to Strasburg (arguably the greatest college pitcher of all-time) Why in everybody's mock drafts are the Pirates taking Crews? Who is Crews comparable to? -- @jferg77

I've made that statement several times myself, and Strasburg is the best pitching prospect in the history of the Draft. Yet there's a strong consensus among club executives and scouts that the Pirates will and should take Crews with the No. 1 overall pick.

Crews is an extremely gifted hitter with plus power and speed and also has a good chance to remain in center field. The reason there's so much belief that Pittsburgh should select him stems not only from his talent but also because position players entail less risk than pitchers.

But I think a strong case also could be made that relative to his peers -- not just in 2023, but in the last decade -- Skenes stands out more among the pitchers than Crews does among the position players. I tend to err on the side of ceiling, and I think it's harder to find a pitcher with Skenes' upside than it is an outfielder with Crews'.


https://www.mlb.com/news/comparisons-for-elly-de-la-cruz-paul-skenes-dylan-crews?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Offline imref

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #296: June 07, 2023, 01:49:12 PM »
From Callis today:

Everybody keeps comparing Skenes to Strasburg (arguably the greatest college pitcher of all-time) Why in everybody's mock drafts are the Pirates taking Crews? Who is Crews comparable to? -- @jferg77

I've made that statement several times myself, and Strasburg is the best pitching prospect in the history of the Draft. Yet there's a strong consensus among club executives and scouts that the Pirates will and should take Crews with the No. 1 overall pick.

Crews is an extremely gifted hitter with plus power and speed and also has a good chance to remain in center field. The reason there's so much belief that Pittsburgh should select him stems not only from his talent but also because position players entail less risk than pitchers.

But I think a strong case also could be made that relative to his peers -- not just in 2023, but in the last decade -- Skenes stands out more among the pitchers than Crews does among the position players. I tend to err on the side of ceiling, and I think it's harder to find a pitcher with Skenes' upside than it is an outfielder with Crews'.


https://www.mlb.com/news/comparisons-for-elly-de-la-cruz-paul-skenes-dylan-crews?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

it is not a lock that the Pirates take Crews.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #297: June 07, 2023, 02:31:34 PM »
I really dont see Strasburg in Skenes. Stras had a curve, but also his changeup was so much more advanced.

Skenes looks more like Strider to me.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #298: June 07, 2023, 02:54:36 PM »
I really dont see Strasburg in Skenes. Stras had a curve, but also his changeup was so much more advanced.

Skenes looks more like Strider to me.
I think it is more the performance level and the quality of the stuff rather than the pitches.

Offline NatsLSU

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Re: 2023 MLB Draft
« Reply #299: June 07, 2023, 09:51:16 PM »
I’d take Langford over Skenes. 

Crews: .432/.573/.736/1.310
Langford: .387/.511/.799/1.310

 :lol: Crews leads the SEC in hits AND walks and has been extremely consistent over his 3 years here. He’s special. We are going to be on a good course if we can get one him or Skenes.