2023 MLB Draft

[Kevrock]

fair enough

[imref]

Dollander can still pitch.
https://www.knoxnews.com/story/sports/college/university-of-tennessee/other-sports/2023/05/20/tennessee-baseball-score-south-carolina-chase-dollander-tony-vitello/70211353007/

[DCsOwn]

https://twitter.com/talknats/status/1660784223672836096?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

SUPER high praise

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

I say this knowing full well I’m probably wrong but I’m not taking the high school kid dominating high school level talent. Skenes is absolutely dominating much more advanced players at the college level. Not just dominating but embarrassing them. You take the special talent and do everything in your power to keep him healthy. Skenes would immediately headline an impressive trio with Gore and Gray.

[Mattionals]

I say this knowing full well I’m probably wrong but I’m not taking the high school kid dominating high school level talent. Skenes is absolutely dominating much more advanced players at the college level. Not just dominating but embarrassing them. You take the special talent and do everything in your power to keep him healthy. Skenes would immediately headline an impressive trio with Gore and Gray.

I'm with you. I know drafting pitchers is always riskier than position players, but I look at our current pipeline, and the biggest lack are pitchers. It's hard to pass up best player available, but if Crews, Skenes, and Jenkins are all available, I would take the risk on the pitcher. You have to hope that two of Green, Wood, Hassell, Vaquero, or De La Rosa pan out, but unless you draft Jenkins and start dealing from those pools to get pitchers, that is the only attainable alternative. I'd just take Skenes at 2 if he is there, mostly because taking a high school hitter usually means a longer timeframe to the majors. Even as "advanced" as Jenkins is, he isn't Trout or Harper advanced, and he still has projection time in the minors. Skenes could very much be like Strasburg and pitch half a season in the minors, and get called up. By that time, he could comfortably step in for Cavalli who will be on an innings limit in his return from TJS. A rotation of Gore, Gray, Cavalli, Skenes, and one more guy for the next 5 years sounds fantastic.

[nobleisthyname]

I think I lean Skenes over Jenkins as well, but you have to imagine Skenes will miss about 1.5 years at some point in the very near future for Tommy John.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I think I lean Skenes over Jenkins as well, but you have to imagine Skenes will miss about 1.5 years at some point in the very near future for Tommy John.

That's pretty much every pitcher, though, unless they've already had TJ and in which case they're a ticking time bomb for the second.

[UMDNats]

Position players aren't locks, either. Brady House got hurt and missed 90% of last season and may be hurt again this season.

[Mattionals]

Position players aren't locks, either. Brady House got hurt and missed 90% of last season and may be hurt again this season.

Bubba Starling. Remember that guy? The Royals took him at 5th overall, and the Nats drafted Rendon 6th overall. Starling was a local KC kid out of high school with supposed huge upside. He did not pan out. I'm not saying that all players out of high school don't pan out, hell Brandon Nimmo was selected in the 2011 draft out of high school and he sure did well, but don't take the risky high school OF who just magically shot up the boards late. Those two players at the top are there for a reason. SEC Baseball is a very different animal to high school baseball, and unless you just decimate your competition like Harper and Trout did, take less risk with a college proven player.

[imref]

Skenes: SEC pitcher of the year
Crews: SEC player of the year (also won it in 2022)

D1 strikeout leaders:

D1 K leaders:
1) Paul Skenes, LSU -- 164
2) Nolan Santos, Bethune-Cookman -- 124
3) Quinn Mathews, Stanford -- 121
4) Jacob Cravey, Samford -- 114
t5) Matt Ager, UC-Santa Barbara -- 113
t5) Matt Duffy, Canisius -- 113

Gotta think the Pirates haven't ruled out taking Skenes.

[Natsinpwc]

Skenes sounds great and I would pick him. But caution anyone thinking he could be in the rotation permanently next year. His fastball screams TJ surgery.  As happened with Strasburg.  I would still take him though.

[Natsinpwc]

Position players aren't locks, either. Brady House got hurt and missed 90% of last season and may be hurt again this season.

Is House hurt again this year?  He has been in the lineup consistently as far as I can tell. Point taken though.

[imref]

Skenes sounds great and I would pick him. But caution anyone thinking he could be in the rotation permanently next year. His fastball screams TJ surgery.  As happened with Strasburg.  I would still take him though.

Assuming our window opens in 2025, you have to take Skenes and hope he's in the rotation by then, which gives you Skenes, Cavalli, Gore, Gray, and hopefully Henry.

That has potential to be dominant.

[Natsinpwc]

Assuming our window opens in 2025, you have to take Skenes and hope he's in the rotation by then, which gives you Skenes, Cavalli, Gore, Gray, and hopefully Henry.

That has potential to be dominant.

I guess what I was saying wouldn’t be surprised to see him mid season 2024 and then out for TJ surgery thereafter. Like 2025 or 2026.  Just like we thought Cavalli would be in the rotation this year and is not.  I don’t think the window open in 2025 anyway. Guys like Wood and Green will just be arriving then. Takes a couple years for them to be very productive.

[Slateman]

Skenes sounds great and I would pick him. But caution anyone thinking he could be in the rotation permanently next year. His fastball screams TJ surgery.  As happened with Strasburg.  I would still take him though.

We should consider it lucky if he is just a TJS guy. Just dont see how a guy this young with this kind of velo spike doesnt end up perpetually injured.

[welch]

So a college hitter like Langford? For me, if the LSU coach mentions Stephen Strasburg in a talk about Skenes, I would draft Skenes and be happy.

Off-hand, I think ownership should sign a hitter, an OF, this off-season, a sort of next-gen Jayson Werth. That is, aim bigger in 2024 as more of the prospect hitters get close. Maybe Hassell, who is hitting in Harrisburg. Further rotation help, with Cavalli beginning to work back from TJS around May or June. Extend Jeimar, and be happy with Dominic Smith at 1B.

[blue911]

Bubba Starling. Remember that guy? The Royals took him at 5th overall, and the Nats drafted Rendon 6th overall. Starling was a local KC kid out of high school with supposed huge upside. He did not pan out. I'm not saying that all players out of high school don't pan out, hell Brandon Nimmo was selected in the 2011 draft out of high school and he sure did well, but don't take the risky high school OF who just magically shot up the boards late. Those two players at the top are there for a reason. SEC Baseball is a very different animal to high school baseball, and unless you just decimate your competition like Harper and Trout did, take less risk with a college proven player.

Trout magically shot up the board in his senior season.

[Slateman]

Trout magically shot up the board in his senior season.

Not that much. Virtually every team passed on him

[nobleisthyname]

Not that much. Virtually every team passed on him

IIRC it was due to concerns over the level of his high school competition.

[imref]

Keith Law's mock is out. He has Crews to the Pirates and Skenes to the Nats as does everyone else. Beyond that, he has Max Clark, Walker Jenkins, and Wyatt Langford at 3-4-5 with Kyle Teel from UVA at #6.

https://theathletic.com/4539593/2023/05/24/mlb-mock-draft-dylan-crews-pirates/

[Slateman]

IIRC it was due to concerns over the level of his high school competition.

Yep. He played in New Jersey. Most clubs didnt do any real scouting.

The level of competition for the draft is pretty irrelevant. Only a handful of players are above High A ball in skill. Thats why scouts evaluate tools and player makeup.

[UMDNats]

Is House hurt again this year?  He has been in the lineup consistently as far as I can tell. Point taken though.

Production has tanked the last month with 0 power, just like last year when he was playing hurt and eventually went on the IL.

[welch]

Production has tanked the last month with 0 power, just like last year when he was playing hurt and eventually went on the IL.

Road to the Show on House, as of May 16: https://www.milb.com/news/the-road-to-the-showtm-washington-nationals-brady-house

[Natsinpwc]

Watched some UVA today and the catcher Keel. Looks like he will be a good one.

[DCsOwn]

https://twitter.com/tedcahill/status/1661850745740619778?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

103 on the gun from Skenes today