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Offline imref

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Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Topic Start: November 01, 2022, 01:29:38 PM »
The Rule 5 draft is next month. Jessica Camerato's newsletter notes the roster challenges for the Nats:

Quote
Among Washington's top 30 prospects, as ranked by MLB Pipeline, outfielder Jeremy De La Rosa (No. 10), right-hander Jackson Rutledge (No. 12), right-hander Aldo Ramirez (No. 18), left-hander Jose Ferrer (No. 23), left-hander Matt Cronin (No. 25) and catcher Drew Millas (No. 30) are eligible. 

Other notable prospects include right-hander Mason Denaburg (2018 first-round pick) and right-hander Jake Irvin (‘18 fourth-round pick). Shortstop Jordy Barley, right-hander Richard Guasch and southpaw Tim Cate also were not protected when they became eligible last year. 
 
The Nationals' 40-man roster is currently full, with seven players mentioned above set to become free agents. On the 40-man roster, pitchers Joan Adon, Gerardo Carrillo (No. 14 prospect), Francisco Perez, Tommy Romero and Seth Romero; infielder Lucius Fox and outfielder Yasel Antuna (No. 19) finished the season in the Minors, with Antuna and Carrillo pursuing their big league debuts. 

My guess:
- Waived: Adon, Fox, Perez, Tommy Romero, Seth Romero
- Signed: Cronin, De La Rosa, Rutledge, Ferrer, Milas

I assume Antuna has no chance at selection given how poorly he hit both in the regular season and so far at the AFL.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #1: November 01, 2022, 02:13:09 PM »
There's got to be a catcher or two dropped.  They are not going to roster 5 catchers - Ruiz, Adams, Barrera, Pineda, and Millas.  I don't know if Millas showed enough in the AFL, but he'd be a guy I think they could gamble on and not protect, figuring no one is going to keep him on a 26 man roster all year.  Barrera I think is cut.

Both Ferrer and Cronin get kept. 

De La Rosa is an interesting call.  He's not ready.  Perhaps with so many teams facing roster squeezes, they will gamble that no one will waste a 40 man spot for a guy who will be difficult to keep around all year on their 26 man roster.  Taking him means you like him better than the guy you could have kept in the 40 man slot and that you are willing to keep him around as a 5th OF for a year, then have him spend an option year back in the minors in 2024 making up for the playing time he lost at the bottom of your roster in 2023.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #2: November 01, 2022, 03:23:18 PM »
There's got to be a catcher or two dropped.  They are not going to roster 5 catchers - Ruiz, Adams, Barrera, Pineda, and Millas.  I don't know if Millas showed enough in the AFL, but he'd be a guy I think they could gamble on and not protect, figuring no one is going to keep him on a 26 man roster all year.  Barrera I think is cut.

Both Ferrer and Cronin get kept. 

De La Rosa is an interesting call.  He's not ready.  Perhaps with so many teams facing roster squeezes, they will gamble that no one will waste a 40 man spot for a guy who will be difficult to keep around all year on their 26 man roster.  Taking him means you like him better than the guy you could have kept in the 40 man slot and that you are willing to keep him around as a 5th OF for a year, then have him spend an option year back in the minors in 2024 making up for the playing time he lost at the bottom of your roster in 2023.

Millas will get scooped up.

Its time to trade Barrera or let him walk. He's 28. He's a backup at best (okay, yea, we've said that before).

Pineda's defensive capabilities make him worth keeping and trying to develop is bat. Millas is going to be a stud, and likely our Ruiz replacement.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #3: November 01, 2022, 04:59:18 PM »
The Rule 5 draft is next month. Jessica Camerato's newsletter notes the roster challenges for the Nats:

My guess:
- Waived: Adon, Fox, Perez, Tommy Romero, Seth Romero
- Signed: Cronin, De La Rosa, Rutledge, Ferrer, Milas

I assume Antuna has no chance at selection given how poorly he hit both in the regular season and so far at the AFL.

You've basically got 2 years of Rule 5 candidates in one class this year due to last year's draft cancellation, so there are tons of tough decisions around the league.

The Nats don't have many.  Virtually nobody on that list is a candidate to be picked, especially given the talent around the league.  They would be much better served keeping a spot or two clear to grab someone or someones from another org.

Offline Five Banners

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #4: November 01, 2022, 05:35:40 PM »
You've basically got 2 years of Rule 5 candidates in one class this year due to last year's draft cancellation, so there are tons of tough decisions around the league.

The Nats don't have many.  Virtually nobody on that list is a candidate to be picked, especially given the talent around the league.  They would be much better served keeping a spot or two clear to grab someone or someones from another org.

Yep, seems an ideal time to identify some who may have fallen through the cracks.

Offline imref

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #5: November 01, 2022, 05:39:35 PM »
Cronin would likely get picked if left unprotected IMHO. Possibly Ferrer too. Rutledge, De La Rosa, and Milas would likely get picked in the minor league phase (as I understand the rule, they'd have to be added to the AAA roster to be protected).

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #6: November 02, 2022, 12:12:10 AM »
I’d rather be looking at possible guys we could pick from other teams than worrying about our guys

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #7: November 13, 2022, 12:42:03 PM »
https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/toughest-rule-5-draft-decisions-for-each-team?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

List Millas as the Nats toughest decision, but, of more interest to me, is that some of these guys should be available for the Nats when they select. 

If Millas does project as a guy a team could take and have sit as a backup all year, then I wonder if he would have trade value for some of these guys?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #8: November 13, 2022, 12:45:22 PM »
on that list, I like this guy's profile.  Rangers:

Quote
Rangers: Jonathan Ornelas, SS/3B (No. 21)
Ornelas batted .299/.360/.425 with 14 homers and as many steals in 123 Double-A games at age 22. The 2018 third-rounder from an Arizona high school has solid speed and arm strength, which lend themselves to defensive versatility, but the Rangers also have an abundance of infielders with higher offensive ceilings.

Offline blue911

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #9: November 13, 2022, 01:57:58 PM »
on that list, I like this guy's profile.  Rangers:

No apparent major league skill.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #10: November 13, 2022, 06:59:31 PM »
No apparent major league skill.
I suppose that obp is contact-heavy, but I at 22,  he looks like he could be at least a utility guy.

Offline blue911

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #11: November 13, 2022, 08:41:42 PM »
I suppose that obp is contact-heavy, but I at 22,  he looks like he could be at least a utility guy.

Don’t they already have that in Jake Alu and without the roster spot.

Offline imref

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #12: November 14, 2022, 03:26:25 PM »
deadline is 6 PM tomorrow to protect players. here's a look at who we might protect:

https://www.talknats.com/2022/11/14/rule-5-add-ons-40-man-roster-due-tuesday-6-pm/

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #13: November 14, 2022, 09:54:27 PM »
Don’t they already have that in Jake Alu and without the roster spot.
I'm thinking that Alu, Kieboom, Vargas, and maybe something else should all compete for the spot.  I wonder if Kieboom would be healthy, too.  I'm assuming Alu gets kept, maybe ahead of Millas given the position depth.

FWIW, it looks like 3 MLB tools in terms of future value - hit, speed, D.  current 45 hit, 60 speed, 50 field.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jonathan-ornelas/sa3006909/stats?position=SS

a write up on him:
Quote
The 22-year-old Ornelas works almost exclusively to the opposite field, squaring up pitches up and away from him and spraying line drives into shallow center and right field. This is in stark contrast to early-career Ornelas’ batted ball profile, which was very pull-heavy and has slowly been trending toward his current distribution. Impressively, Ornelas has put about two balls in play for every time he has swung and missed so far this year, and he’s done that despite being a fairly aggressive hitter with a hole in the down-and-in part of the zone. Some of these issues will likely be exposed by big league pitching, and Ornelas probably won’t have the offensive output befitting an everyday player, but he brings so many other skills to the party that he’ll likely be a good utility man.

While he doesn’t have a traditional throwing style or left-side arm strength, Ornelas is a capable shortstop defender with above-average range and hands. He’s seen time all over the infield and has even played some center, though not really enough for anyone we’ve spoken with to have confidence in grading his defense out there. Clay Davenport’s minor league defensive metrics thought he was close to a neutral defender in 26 games last year. Ornelas is making a case for a 40-man spot after the season, but the Texas infield is clogged ahead of him (Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Ezequiel Duran, Nick Solak), around him (Josh Jung and Josh H. Smith are locks to be added this offseason, while Luisangel Acuna and Davis Wendzel are possibilities) and behind him (Justin Foscue is a 2023 add, and Maximo Acosta and Cody Freeman are also possibilities). Ornelas’ defensive versatility is what helps him stand apart from that group and gives him the best chance of holding down a big league roster spot in this org.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/texas-rangers-top-50-prospects-2022/

Honestly, I was looking for another 3rd base option, and he seemed the best on the MLB list.   In terms of Rule 5 strategy, I don't know what makes the most sense - perhaps a pitcher off of TJ like Whitlock?  An position player squeezed due to roster depth at his spot (like Millas or this guy)? A toolsy outfielder with a big hole (Wily Mo Pena type)?

I'd put the Nats needs as innings eating starter, corner OF, 3d or 2d base, in that order.  I don't think you can get an innings eater out of Rule 5, so I was interested in the other spots, but could also see a "he throws hard, may as well give him a slot in the bullpen" guy.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #14: November 15, 2022, 10:28:17 AM »
I'm thinking that Alu, Kieboom, Vargas, and maybe something else should all compete for the spot.  I wonder if Kieboom would be healthy, too.  I'm assuming Alu gets kept, maybe ahead of Millas given the position depth.

FWIW, it looks like 3 MLB tools in terms of future value - hit, speed, D.  current 45 hit, 60 speed, 50 field.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jonathan-ornelas/sa3006909/stats?position=SS

a write up on him:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/texas-rangers-top-50-prospects-2022/

Honestly, I was looking for another 3rd base option, and he seemed the best on the MLB list.   In terms of Rule 5 strategy, I don't know what makes the most sense - perhaps a pitcher off of TJ like Whitlock?  An position player squeezed due to roster depth at his spot (like Millas or this guy)? A toolsy outfielder with a big hole (Wily Mo Pena type)?

I'd put the Nats needs as innings eating starter, corner OF, 3d or 2d base, in that order.  I don't think you can get an innings eater out of Rule 5, so I was interested in the other spots, but could also see a "he throws hard, may as well give him a slot in the bullpen" guy.

I'd almost just watch what the Rays do today and draft the best guy they leave unprotected.  Their 40 is full right now and they have a LOT of guys they need to add, several of whom have already done fine in AA and are young enough to have a lot of upside still.  They might be able to swing a few trades today to clear space, but if not then that's the first place to look.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #15: November 16, 2022, 10:25:54 AM »
I'd almost just watch what the Rays do today and draft the best guy they leave unprotected.  Their 40 is full right now and they have a LOT of guys they need to add, several of whom have already done fine in AA and are young enough to have a lot of upside still.  They might be able to swing a few trades today to clear space, but if not then that's the first place to look.

And (quoting myself), my pick would be this dude:  https://www.milb.com/player/kameron-misner-670224?stats=career-r-fielding-minors&year=2022

He did well in AA this year, he's a legitimate CF, hits lefty, and he'll be 25 in January.  Yes, he strikes out a lot.  So does everyone these days.  But having seen him a couple times in person, I think he could handle the majors next year if you picked him. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #16: November 16, 2022, 11:20:41 AM »
And (quoting myself), my pick would be this dude:  https://www.milb.com/player/kameron-misner-670224?stats=career-r-fielding-minors&year=2022

He did well in AA this year, he's a legitimate CF, hits lefty, and he'll be 25 in January.  Yes, he strikes out a lot.  So does everyone these days.  But having seen him a couple times in person, I think he could handle the majors next year if you picked him. 
  Looks like his ISO was .180 at AA and will take a walk.  The Ks are high, but that's the case for Robles, too. 

FWIW, a site Elvir won't look at had him as TB's #11 prospect this summer:
Quote
Misner entered his draft spring as a strapping, tooled-up outfielder who hadn’t performed to expectations during his first two seasons at Missouri, in part because his swings had issues, and also because of a foot injury. He struggled more than was hoped during his draft year, too, especially against SEC pitching (.222/.353/.315), but the raw power/straight line speed combo enticed Miami at pick 35 anyway. He was always going to be a slow-burning developmental project, especially for a college hitter, but the missed 2020 season created an unfortunate gap in Misner’s ability to show he could make relevant on-field adjustments.

By the middle of 2021, it was clear that he had. Misner began performing on paper (.253/.355/.433 split between High- and Double-A) and had undergone a swing overhaul. His stance was narrowed and opened up, the angle of his bat as his hands load had changed, and his stride had shortened. While he’s still striking out a lot, the changes seem to have helped him get to more of his impressive raw power in games, and his speed gives him a real ability to play center field, creating some margin for error regarding the strikeouts. Misner still hasn’t performed at an age-appropriate level (now 24, he crushed bad Fall League pitching after the regular season) but the Rays thought enough of his changes to trade Joey Wendle for him, straight up. The 2022 season is Misner’s 40-man roster evaluation year, and he’s part of the crowded short-term mix of Josh Lowe, Brett Phillips, Kevin Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows who make up the contingent of lefty-hitting, upper-level outfielders in this org who could conceivably platoon all over the outfield.

FWIW, his 2nd half of the year had a drop in strikeouts in 2022, and he seems to have a lot more trouble making contact with lefties.  Using Elvir's link, he had 40 Ks in 96 ABs vs LHP,  115 in 319 vs RHP; vs LHP - .188 / .339 / .385, vs RHP - .270/.398/.445.

Almost sounds like a guy the Nats could platoon in CF with Thomas (or Robles) if things worked out. 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #17: November 16, 2022, 11:43:28 AM »
  Looks like his ISO was .180 at AA and will take a walk.  The Ks are high, but that's the case for Robles, too. 

FWIW, a site Elvir won't look at had him as TB's #11 prospect this summer:
FWIW, his 2nd half of the year had a drop in strikeouts in 2022, and he seems to have a lot more trouble making contact with lefties.  Using Elvir's link, he had 40 Ks in 96 ABs vs LHP,  115 in 319 vs RHP; vs LHP - .188 / .339 / .385, vs RHP - .270/.398/.445.

Almost sounds like a guy the Nats could platoon in CF with Thomas (or Robles) if things worked out.

I can confirm that from the eye test, he's hopeless against decent lefties.  But he hits righties and can be the long side of an outfield platoon.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #18: November 16, 2022, 08:57:48 PM »

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #19: November 17, 2022, 07:31:59 AM »
Surprised the Phillies did not protect Miller. Take him. Did good in Double A last year but not in Triple A. Fourth round pick in 2019 from Stanford.

Pick him. Nats need pitching.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=miller007eri

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #20: November 17, 2022, 08:59:34 AM »
(Image removed from quote.)
That's a bit of a strange list. Mangum is going to be 27 next opening day.  Contact guy without much else.  Canzone has a bit of power and a lefty bat, but is limited to corner OF (I prefer Elvir's guy).  Chaparro is really interesting - 3rd base! 23, good AA debut. Gorski hit some in 2022 and is good defensively in CF.  Ward is a left fielder or a DH who didn't do anything special in AA last year.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #21: November 17, 2022, 09:14:08 AM »
Chappero is a third baseman in name only. He's gonna have to move to first

Offline Slateman

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #22: November 18, 2022, 06:53:44 PM »
Dodgers left Ryan Noda unprotected. Could make for an interesting platoon option

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #23: November 19, 2022, 09:34:06 AM »
This isn't strictly Rule 5, but the Reds just non-tendered a dude named Allan Cerda.  He'd been on their 40 man for 2 years and is in AA - so he's their version of Yasel Antuna.

Except he's a lot better than Yasel Antuna - he can play CF and OPSed 250 points higher in AA - he's slightly younger, and because he's now a free agent, he could be signed to a minor league contract and not put on the 40 man.  Many prospect rankings have him as a 45 or 45+ FV and he's been 15-20ish in the Reds system for most of the last couple years.  He's still an actual fringe prospect.

I've seen him a lot.  He has a hole in his swing and really, really struggles with same-side breaking stuff.  He's probably a 4th OF and short side platoon guy - think Jordan Luplow.  But as a 23 year old minor league free agent, you're not likely to ever see much better. 

Offline imref

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Re: Rule 5 draft - 2022
« Reply #24: November 23, 2022, 11:14:05 PM »
FWIW, Seth Cummings tweets that the Nats are "dialed in" on https://www.milb.com/player/andres-chaparro-665953

Might be able to stick at 3rd if nothing else works out.