Rule 5 draft - 2022

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Dougherty speculates that, with the signing of Candelario and Garrett, a pitching may be the Rule 5 priority.  Notes it is easier to stash a pitcher on the roster.  with Palacios sent to AA, he'll be available in both the MLB and the AAA phases of the Rule 5 draft.  Antuna is at AAA so will be available only in the MLB portion.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/12/02/yasel-antuna-josh-palacios-nationals-roster-space/

The Nationals had already been busy this week, signing third baseman Jeimer Candelario and outfielder Stone Garrett to major league contracts. Bringing in Garrett, a 27-year-old from the Arizona Diamondbacks, seemed to complicate Palacio’s future with Washington, given that they are the same age and Palacios had already slipped behind Alex Call in the organizational pecking order. And because the additions address two needs — outfield depth from Garrett; third base assurance and a DH option from Candelario — the Nationals could very well mine the Rule 5 Draft for pitching.

With Antuna and Palacios outrighted, they can choose to make up to two Rule 5 selections. It is a particularly good year to have that flexibility. Last winter’s lockout led Major League Baseball to cancel the Rule 5 Draft, so there is a bigger pool of first-time eligible players, including 10 former first-round picks — including Mason Denaburg, who the Nationals took 27th in 2018 and are comfortable exposing because of his extensive injury history. Among Baseball America’s top available players are pitchers Antoine Kelly (Rangers), Andrew Schultz (Phillies), Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox) and Thad Ward (Red Sox).

This was published 12/2.  Since then, Cammerato has mentioned they are still interested in both another bat as well as starting pitching.  To my eye, that may mean using the #1 on a good position player (some discussed above).  I don't know if these guys can be plugged into a rotation right away. 

[Slateman]

Victor Vodnik needs to be the first pick. Upper 90s. Can hit 100. Has a great changeup. He can immediately plug in and be an MLB reliever.

Vodnik and one if Noda or Sobal would be ideal.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Victor Vodnik needs to be the first pick. Upper 90s. Can hit 100. Has a great changeup. He can immediately plug in and be an MLB reliever.

Vodnik and one if Noda or Sobal would be ideal.

Yeah, now that they signed an OF, this is the really obvious pick.  They wasted too much time before converting to him to a reliever but the stuff really works out of the pen.  It's pretty rare that you can get a Rule 5 guy who is 23, has good stuff, and has actually produced in the upper minors.

As a massive minor league dork, I love the Rule 5 draft, but as a massive minor league dork I love the minor league phase even more.

[Slateman]

Yeah, now that they signed an OF, this is the really obvious pick.  They wasted too much time before converting to him to a reliever but the stuff really works out of the pen.  It's pretty rare that you can get a Rule 5 guy who is 23, has good stuff, and has actually produced in the upper minors.

As a massive minor league dork, I love the Rule 5 draft, but as a massive minor league dork I love the minor league phase even more.

They had such a great pen they could afford to see if he could be a starter.

I really want Ryan Noda. He screams Morse or Meneses. Every level he's played at, he rakes. And he's MLB ready. He'd be an excellent platoon option for LF or 1B

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I really want Ryan Noda. He screams Morse or Meneses. Every level he's played at, he rakes. And he's MLB ready. He'd be an excellent platoon option for LF or 1B

Lefty LF / RF/ 1B player who can hit.  Really could use a lefty to complement Call / Thomas / Meneses.  Decent idea.

[DCsOwn]

https://twitter.com/jonathanmayo/status/1600609523651190791?s=46&t=OMPF91LlpnhbPPiWIrU8Gg

It’s Ward.

[imref]

https://twitter.com/jonathanmayo/status/1600609523651190791?s=46&t=OMPF91LlpnhbPPiWIrU8Gg

It’s Ward.

MiLB:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Ward served as a Red Sox bat boy during Spring Training while growing up in Fort Myers, Fla., and became a full-time employee when they selected him in 2018's fifth round out of Central Florida. Converted from college reliever to pro starter, he won Boston's Minor League pitcher of the year award in his first full pro season after logging a 2.14 ERA with a system-best 157 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings between Low-A and High-A. He has barely pitched since because of the 2020 pandemic shutdown and Tommy John surgery last June after two Double-A starts.

Before his elbow gave out, Ward displayed one of the system's best sliders, an 81-85 mph weapon with late bite that he could use for strikes and chases and also turn into an upper-80s cutter. He set up his slider with a hard two-seam fastball that ranged from 92-96 mph with good sink to induce groundball contact. He was working on improving his changeup, flashing some solid ones in the low 80s with fade.

Left off Boston's 40-man roster last November, Ward became a Rule 5 target for several clubs until that Draft was cancelled following the lockout. Also a college basketball prospect in high school, he's a good athlete who repeats his easy delivery and should have at least average control once he comes all the way back from his elbow reconstruction. He still has a ceiling of a No. 4 starter with the fallback of becoming a multi-inning reliever who relies heavily on his slider and sinker.

Classic Rizzo, guy who's stock is down due to an injury.

[imref]

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates)
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians)
9. Marlins: RHP Nick Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass

[Slateman]

https://twitter.com/jonathanmayo/status/1600609523651190791?s=46&t=OMPF91LlpnhbPPiWIrU8Gg

It’s Ward.

Ffs

HOW THE freak DO YOU PASS ON NODA FOR A DUDE WITH ONE freakING PITCH

[Natsinpwc]

Minor league and college stats.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ward--000tha

[imref]

Ffs

HOW THE freak DO YOU PASS ON NODA FOR A DUDE WITH ONE freakING PITCH

Noda seemed like the better fit, a 26 year old power hitter who hit more than 50HRs in AA and AAA over the last two years and who could have easily become our DH for the next few years, putting up likely no worse numbers than Voit.

[Natsinpwc]

Noda struck out 162 times in the PCL last yeat. Is .474 slugging really that good in that league?

[Slateman]

Noda struck out 162 times in the PCL last yeat. Is .474 slugging really that good in that league?

120 wRC+ is better than any of our current options in LF or 1B would put up

He also.absolutely murders RHP: http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mls/cgi-bin/player.cgi?player=676116/Ryan-Noda

[Natsinpwc]

120 wRC+ is better than any of our current options in LF or 1B would put up

He also.absolutely murders RHP: http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mls/cgi-bin/player.cgi?player=676116/Ryan-Noda

As others remind me it’s a hitters league. Looks like the kind of guy big league pitchers will befuddle.  A reason the Dodgers left him exposed.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Nats also lost Palacios in the minor league phase. 

The fact that they had him on the 40 man until after the protect date and then didn't even protect him from the minor league phase is weird, but it's not like he's Aaron Judge.

[Natsinpwc]

Ok. I looked it up. Noda was 14th in the PCL in slugging.  He did lead the league. In strikeouts. By 17. 

[imref]

Ward slots in as our #13 prospect: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals/thad-ward-663658

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Ward, who will be 26 in January, was the Red Sox's minor league pitcher of the year after a dominant season at both Class A levels, then missed most of the next two years, first because of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and then because of Tommy John surgery in 2021. Ward came back to make 13 starts in 2022, posting a 2.28 ERA with 66 strikeouts and 19 walks in 51⅓ innings. Ward then pitched 12⅔ innings in the Arizona Fall League, allowing four runs.
...
"We kind of blended the upside of the pitcher with the certainty of making it easier to carry the player throughout the season," Rizzo said of the Nationals' strategy with the first pick. "We like this player. We think he's got more left in the tank. He's a year farther removed from Tommy John surgery, he's got a four-pitch mix, he's around the plate, he's got some pitchability and some stuff, and we think there's a little more left in the tank."

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35206132/phillies-take-noah-song-rule-5-draft-thad-ward-goes-no-1

Sounds like a conservative pick.  Pitchers are easier to stash for a year than a position player who ends up not being able to hit.  Certainly more upside in Noda if he can hit in the majors, but more of a bust potential with the Ks. 

[Slateman]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35206132/phillies-take-noah-song-rule-5-draft-thad-ward-goes-no-1

Sounds like a conservative pick.  Pitchers are easier to stash for a year than a position player who ends up not being able to hit.  Certainly more upside in Noda if he can hit in the majors, but more of a bust potential with the Ks. 

Which would be fine if we had a roster crunch or were a competitive team. But the 2023 Nats are, for all intents and purposes, an extension of their minor league development. They could absolutely afford to give a guy like Noda or Sabol the majority of the season to develop.

Instead, we take a guy that will be a swing man. Except we already have like 5 of those already

[JCA-CrystalCity]

we take a guy that will be a swing man. Except we already have like 5 of those already

Funny you say that, because my instant thought was that he slips into the Fedde/Espino role at least this year.

[zimm_da_kid]

Don’t hate on the pick.  The raw stuff is better than Espino, and his command and mindset have to be better than Fedde.  Guy has legitimate 4/5 starter upside.  For a team with Corbin and stras and a bunch of yet unproven arms, he could get starts and succeed there.  If he doesn’t, it is very likely he makes it as a reliever.

Regardless, I think most of our deadline trade chips will be relievers.  We have Cronin, Ferrer, and Brzykcy all looking like they’ll be ready this year.  In the majors we’ll have a mix of Finnegan, Harvey, edwards, machado, Arano, Doolittle, Espino, ward, and Thompson.   

[Slateman]

Funny you say that, because my instant thought was that he slips into the Fedde/Espino role at least this year.

Fedde/Espino/Tetreault/Abbot/Adon ....

[Slateman]

Ryan Noda currently hitting .262/.423/.475

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Ryan Noda currently hitting .262/.423/.475

what are the winning numbers in the powerball the next time it goes over $600 million?

Would have been a good fit.  Had we signed Smith at that point?

[Slateman]

what are the winning numbers in the powerball the next time it goes over $600 million?

Would have been a good fit.  Had we signed Smith at that point?

Nope. Could have saved Mark over a million bucks