Author Topic: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 21855 times)

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Offline imref

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #600: January 12, 2023, 11:21:31 AM »
Oh man, even more complications. How does a team qualify for revenue sharing?

I'm struggling to figure that out. Each team is supposed to get around $60 million from national TV rights fees (ESPN/TBS/FS1). Beyond that, each team is suppose to put 48% of revenue into the pool, which is then evenly distributed to small-market teams. I can't imagine the Nats qualify as a small-market team, though they are still hurt by the MASN deal. 

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #601: January 12, 2023, 01:33:53 PM »
I had no idea this was a rule. This is the dumbest thing ever.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #602: January 12, 2023, 02:25:53 PM »
This goes into the details if it is still accurate.   I'd guess Nats would probably be a revenue sharing recipient now based on revenue, but are likely disqualified for their market score.

http://www.captainsblog.info/2020/03/07/looking-under-the-hood-of-mlbs-revenue-sharing-plan-yankees-baseball-red-sox-mets-how-does-baseballs-revenue-sharing-work/25425/



Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #603: January 12, 2023, 03:25:02 PM »
I had no idea this was a rule. This is the dumbest thing ever.
what it is designed to do is to not reward a team in a good market that blows it all up and loses 95+ games for several seasons. like the Cubs did years ago when Theo took over.  The Nats picked a bad time to blow everything up.

But, on the bright side, waiver rules and Rule 5 still provide an advantage, and it looks like we are trying to use that a bit.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #604: January 13, 2023, 09:30:39 AM »
what it is designed to do is to not reward a team in a good market that blows it all up and loses 95+ games for several seasons. like the Cubs did years ago when Theo took over.  The Nats picked a bad time to blow everything up.

But, on the bright side, waiver rules and Rule 5 still provide an advantage, and it looks like we are trying to use that a bit.

We don't even have control of our own market! These advantages for small market teams should stop - most of them aren't spending relative to their income to field competitive teams at all, which is a bigger problem than "blow up" cycles.

There's nothing wrong with what the Cubs did. You should be able to blow it up. The problem (I think) is the Astros and Orioles, taking it to the extreme that they did.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #605: January 13, 2023, 09:37:56 AM »
This goes into the details if it is still accurate.   I'd guess Nats would probably be a revenue sharing recipient now based on revenue, but are likely disqualified for their market score.

http://www.captainsblog.info/2020/03/07/looking-under-the-hood-of-mlbs-revenue-sharing-plan-yankees-baseball-red-sox-mets-how-does-baseballs-revenue-sharing-work/25425/




It’s insane that market score ignores TV rights.

Offline imref

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #606: January 14, 2023, 10:38:51 AM »
Nats avoid arbitration with everyone but Robles. He wants $2.6 million, the team has offered him $2.3 million.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #607: January 14, 2023, 10:41:57 AM »
Interesting.Cot's had thought he would get $3.9 million.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #608: January 14, 2023, 04:03:40 PM »
I took a look at MLBTR's projections for Nats arb guys and what they settled at, or, in Robles's case, what the ask and the offer is:

             MLBTR est.      Actual           Dif
Carl Jr.:  1.6 MM          2.25 MM        $625K
Robles    2.5 MM         2.3/2.6 MM    $200K/$100K
Rainey    1.5 MM          1.5 MM           -0-
Harvey    1.0 MM          $875 K         $125K
Arano      1.0 MM          925K            $75K
Thomas   2.1 MM          2.2 MM         $100K
Vargas     1.1 MM          975K            $25K
Finnegan  2.0 MM         2.325 MM     $325K

MLBTR estimated from https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/mlb-projected-arbitration-salaries-2023.html
Actual from https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/2023-mlb-arbitration-tracker.html, except for
Harvey actual is from https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Au_xTIni1eJbDGzravS1482wBbzN9DBQaOY1wwo2Mr0/edit#gid=1520401900

Red=underestimated  Green=overestimated   


Note: the Cot's spreadsheet has Robles estimated at $3.9 million.  I thought they used MLBTR as its source, but MLBTR shows $2.5 MM. I don't know the reason for the difference. 

Other than Robles, a quick count was that the estimates were off (under) $825K total, with the closer at the start of the year and one set up guy being under $950K.  Makes you wonder whether Harvey should have sought more. 

Online Slateman

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #609: January 14, 2023, 08:36:27 PM »
Honestly dont blame him for trying to get every dollar. I dont see him staying in MLB. He has three seasons in a row of a mid 60s wRC+. Yes he plays good defense, but that becomes less valuable the more offense he gives up and the more he costs.

The next deal he signs will probably be less than this year's arb deal. And he'll sign somewhere else, hoping they can fix his swing.

Offline welch

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #610: January 14, 2023, 09:22:22 PM »
Andrew Golden says that the arbitration figures for Robles are a bit lower: "In 2022, the Nationals filed a $1.6 million figure for the center fielder while the player submitted $2.1 million."

The team's offer seems about what Robles is worth.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/01/14/nationals-arbitration-deadline-victor-robles/

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #611: January 15, 2023, 10:18:04 AM »
Welch, I read the link. I think the 1
6/2.1 was for 2022, not this year.

Offline imref

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #612: January 15, 2023, 02:50:56 PM »
International signings:
Juan Obispo - 600K
José Feliz - 120K
Andy Acevedo - 1.3M
Eikel Joaquín - 100K
Carlos Batista - 375K
Elián Soto - 250K
Manuel Cabrera - 550K
Leury Portorreal - 10K
Edwin Solano 1.3 M

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #613: January 15, 2023, 04:09:47 PM »
International signings:
Juan Obispo - 600K
José Feliz - 120K
Andy Acevedo - 1.3M
Eikel Joaquín - 100K
Carlos Batista - 375K
Elián Soto - 250K
Manuel Cabrera - 550K
Leury Portorreal - 10K
Edwin Solano 1.3 M
I wonder if the folks in South Florida will think he's THE Elian.

Started a thread in The Farm for discussion and profiles of these players.

Online Slateman

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #614: January 15, 2023, 04:40:08 PM »
Wasnt Elian supposed to sign with someone else at one point?

Offline hotshot

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #615: January 15, 2023, 08:09:37 PM »
Wasnt Elian supposed to sign with someone else at one point?
Think it was the Padres, obviously due to the family connection.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #616: January 15, 2023, 08:17:04 PM »
Wasnt Elian supposed to sign with someone else at one point?
mets. The wapo article mentions it . Farm thread has link

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #617: January 16, 2023, 12:06:17 PM »
Red Sox  DFA'd Connor Seabold, RHP who has been at AAA the past couple of years and lit up in short stints in the majors (21.1 IP is 6 starts).  He's about the same level of prospect as Thad Ward according to SoxProspects.com and would have to be on the 40 man roster but not the 26 man.

Part of me wonders if the Nats would swap Ward for Seabold so they would get the flexibility? But I suppose Ward may have to clear waivers first.

Online Slateman

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #618: January 16, 2023, 12:32:17 PM »
Im not sure we should be picking up the pitching castoffs from team with less established pitching than we have.

Then again, the Red Sox are a clusterfreak.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #619: January 16, 2023, 12:34:29 PM »
Red Sox  DFA'd Connor Seabold, RHP who has been at AAA the past couple of years and lit up in short stints in the majors (21.1 IP is 6 starts).  He's about the same level of prospect as Thad Ward according to SoxProspects.com and would have to be on the 40 man roster but not the 26 man.

Part of me wonders if the Nats would swap Ward for Seabold so they would get the flexibility? But I suppose Ward may have to clear waivers first.

Ward is a Rule 5, so he'd need to be offered back to his former team, not just waived.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #620: January 16, 2023, 12:54:36 PM »
Ward is a Rule 5, so he'd need to be offered back to his former team, not just waived.
the reason I asked was that the Red Sox are his former team.  Rule 5 players can be traded, and I think the Rule 5 rules still apply, but I wondered if the must be waived before offered back (for a price to restore his off roster status) would apply to his original team.  I would guess so?  Maybe that's why it's not done; there's no incentive to trade for a guy once he's cleared waivers because he has to be offered back, and if he can't clear waivers, the Sox aren't getting him back to off-roster status anyway. May as well just waive Seabold and outright him if he clears.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #621: January 16, 2023, 12:56:06 PM »
Im not sure we should be picking up the pitching castoffs from team with less established pitching than we have.

Then again, the Red Sox are a clusterfreak.
they actually have a legit 40 man roster squeeze. they have several guys who they've had to waive who have been picked up.

Online Slateman

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #622: January 17, 2023, 12:51:13 PM »
Welp, nvm, Seabold traded to the Rockies.

Could have had him for cash considerations. LAC

Offline imref

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #623: January 17, 2023, 02:29:45 PM »
Machado clears waivers and is heading back to Rochester.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #624: January 19, 2023, 09:52:10 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/01/18/nationals-veteran-catcher-analysis/

Jesse D discusses whether the Nats might bring in a veteran catcher as a backup to Ruiz.  The idea is that an old hand would be able to work with him and to work with some of the young pitchers.  To some extent, this is Henry Blanco's job, but the role of a player is different than the role of a coach.  There's also a feeling that Pineda, 22, is ahead of schedule and could be sent back to AAA, while Adams is a bit of a question mark after an off year.  Some of the names kicked around include Robinson Chirinos, Kevin Plawecki, and Roberto Perez. It might even be a guy who is really only around in the Spring, if Adams and / or Pineda beat them out. Primary purpose would be to benefit Gore, Cavalli, Gray, and relievers like Harvey.

Quote
If the Nationals added a mid- or late-career catcher on a similar deal, he could teach and push Adams and Pineda in the spring, then perhaps crack the Opening Day roster alongside Ruiz and an impressionable pitching staff. Two members of the organization endorsed the idea, though each noted how catching and strategy coach Henry Blanco — once a journeyman catcher himself — serves a similar purpose and has been great with Ruiz in particular. A teammate is different from a coach, though, and could be an extension of Blanco when it comes to game-calling and working with pitchers. At the end of the 2021 season, for example, Adams went on and on about the influence of veteran Alex Avila, who was about to retire.

...

Now, if the Nationals stand pat with what they have, the year will be an important test for Adams, Pineda and maybe even Millas, who should start in the upper levels of the minors. There’s both immediate and long-term opportunity to complement Ruiz, who arrived as the centerpiece of the return from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the trade for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Adams has the inside track because of his 95 career appearances. Pineda, having hit 16 homers in 2022, holds intriguing upside.

But last April, the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote that Chirinos, signed to help break top prospect Adley Rutschman into the majors, “quickly ingratiated himself with the team’s pitchers, coaches and analytics staff.” That’s the crux of the idea here — and something the Nationals could give a look.

OF course, Jesse D raises the question of whether the Nats have tapped out their budget for veteran adds and priorities.  I think Plawecki in particular has been effective in recent years but is younger and probably would cost more. I'm not sure how I feel about this.  I like Blanco a lot, and it's mentioned he's been particularly good with Ruiz.  I would also not want to impact adversely Adams development, even if I like Pineda more.  I guess this is something to watch.  If it is truly a matter of a limited budget for the bench, then I still would rather have a lefty hitting OF added as an extra guy.