2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread

[imref]

As MLBTR points out, Dickerson's 2022 numbers were skewed by a horrid 97 PAs at the start of the year.  He finished very strong over his last 200.  But yes, if he's a Major Turdy and blocks something worthwhile, then it has not worked out.

he's on a one year deal so he's not blocking anyone. If Hassell is ready for the majors this year, he'll get priority.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Dickerson played down the stretch and actually played well. 

His 2022 season was spent with the Cardinals, where he logged a .267/.300/.399 slash with six homers, 17 doubles and a triple in 297 plate appearances. That slash is at least somewhat skewed by an awful start to the season which saw him bat .180/.237/.213 through his first 97 plate appearances; from June 1 through the end of the 2022 campaign, Dickerson recorded 200 trips to the plate and posted a hefty .307/.330/.484 batting line.

In reality, Dickerson’s true talent level likely lies somewhere between the two extremes. The 2017 All-Star and 2018 Gold Glove winner is a lifetime .281/.324/.481 hitter but has settled in closer to a league-average bat since the 2020  season, slashing .266/.313/.403 in 872 turns at the plate.

The left-handed-hitting Dickerson carries a fairly sharp platoon split, with the majority of his power coming versus right-handed pitching. Dickerson’s 25.8% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate against lefties are also demonstrably worse than his respective 18.9% and 6.1% marks when holding the platoon advantage. Overall, Dickerson has held his own in terms of batting average against lefties (.259) but has paired that with a bleak .299 on-base percentage and just a .394 slugging percentage. Against righties, however, he’s slashed .287/.331/.505.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/nationals-to-sign-corey-dickerson.html

I'd be happy for an MLB average bat against righties, which is the long side of a

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Also, Andres Machado DFA'd to make room.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/nationals-designate-andres-machado-for-assignment.html

Small loss.  Probably makes room to carry Ward or perhaps Doo can make the squad.

AJ Alexy traded to Twins for Cristian Jimenez, a pitcher I assume who doesn't have to be on the 40 man?

By claiming Alexy and hanging onto him for a few weeks, the Nats will receive Jimenez for their troubles. He’s still quite young, not turning 19 years old until May. He spent 2022 in the Dominican Summer League, posting a 3.38 ERA over 37 1/3 innings with a 30.2% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 57.9% ground ball rate.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/twins-acquire-a-j-alexy-from-nationals.html

[JCA-CrystalCity]

after the Machado DFA, my speculation on the bullpen is

Finnegan / Harvey / Edwards - closer and set ups with a close lead. Davey will play the matchups.

Espino, Ward, Erasmo - multi inning, long, low leverage, spot starts.

2 slots for some combo of Arano, Thompson, Cronin, Doo, abbott, Ferrer.

I think Abbott most likely is stretched out in AAA until needed for a spot start.  Ferrer and Cronin pitch in Rochester. Weems could be on this list but is behind Thompson.  I could also very easily see a healthy Arano having a trade market.  Similar for Edwards.   

If they want to go north with a lefty, it's one of Doo, Cronin, or Ferrer.

[Slateman]

I'm pretty sure Doolittle makes the MLB club if he's healthy.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm pretty sure Doolittle makes the MLB club if he's healthy.

yes, which is why I suspect there's some of the guys on the list that'll be pruned.  They don't like Ward, that's a slot for Doo.  They get an offer for Edwards or Arano that they like, it cleans up some of the competition. 

[Smithian]

Corey Dickerson will take ABs I'd prefer go to Lane Thomas, Alex Call, and Stone Garrett. And we have a few bat first players who could play in the corners. Whatever his deadline return would be wouldn't be as valuable as figuring out what those three guys are.

I have no problem with Dickerson in a vacuum, especially if it was a winning team. Don't love it for where the Nationals are.

[Slateman]

Dickerson played down the stretch and actually played well. 
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/nationals-to-sign-corey-dickerson.html

I'd be happy for an MLB average bat against righties, which is the long side of a

<-------------------

Also, Andres Machado DFA'd to make room.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/nationals-designate-andres-machado-for-assignment.html

Small loss.  Probably makes room to carry Ward or perhaps Doo can make the squad.

AJ Alexy traded to Twins for Cristian Jimenez, a pitcher I assume who doesn't have to be on the 40 man?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/twins-acquire-a-j-alexy-from-nationals.html

He played two games in June. So really we're talking about 11 games in July he hit .314/.359/.571 and 18 games in August he hit .411/.411/.589.

Like, call me negative, but I just dont think a 34 journeyman outfielder is going to sustain that for any length of time

[imref]

Hector Gomez notes the Nats will announce the signing of Elian Soto on Sunday (Juan's younger brother).  $225,000 bonus plus a $200,000 scholarship.

[imref]

talknats projected lineup against RHP:

1.  Lane Thomas RF (R)
2. Keibert Ruiz C (S)
3. Jeimer Candelario 3B (S)
4. Dominic Smith 1B (L)
5. Joey Meneses DH (R)
6. Corey Dickerson LF (L)
7. CJ Abrams SS (L)
8. Luis Garcia 2B (L)
9. Victor Robles CF (R)

[Natsinpwc]

Corey Dickerson will take ABs I'd prefer go to Lane Thomas, Alex Call, and Stone Garrett. And we have a few bat first players who could play in the corners. Whatever his deadline return would be wouldn't be as valuable as figuring out what those three guys are.

I have no problem with Dickerson in a vacuum, especially if it was a winning team. Don't love it for where the Nationals are.

You are worried about two 27 year olds and a 28 year old not getting at bats. LOL. None of them are hot prospects.  They will get their shots.

[Smithian]

You are worried about two 27 year olds and a 28 year old not getting at bats. LOL. None of them are hot prospects.  They will get their shots.

Being a fan of this franchise requires triaging crappy options. Playing a couple second chance prospects in their late 20s is better than playing a 34 year old who probably gets traded for a 27 year old AA pitcher at the deadline.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Hector Gomez notes the Nats will announce the signing of Elian Soto on Sunday (Juan's younger brother).  $225,000 bonus plus a $200,000 scholarship.

I'm surprised he doesn't give them the finger and sign with the Padres.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

talknats projected lineup against RHP:

1.  Lane Thomas RF (R)
2. Keibert Ruiz C (S)
3. Jeimer Candelario 3B (S)
4. Dominic Smith 1B (L)
5. Joey Meneses DH (R)
6. Corey Dickerson LF (L)
7. CJ Abrams SS (L)
8. Luis Garcia 2B (L)
9. Victor Robles CF (R)

You can quibble with this around the edges, but that at least seems like the lineup most of the time (that is, vs righty starters).  That said, there's no way on earth that Davey will line up 3 average to below average lefty hitters in a row.  Flip Ruiz and Abrams and that's more of a Davey lineup. His catchers are always in the 2nd half of the order even when they are better hitters than guys in the top half.  Could also  see Dickerson second and Ruiz or Garcia behind MEneses.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You are worried about two 27 year olds and a 28 year old not getting at bats. LOL. None of them are hot prospects.  They will get their shots.

Well, in fairness, there's a lot of team control, and peak years are 27-32 or so, so some peak left on those guys.  Plenty of examples of guys who blossom late. Garrett is intriguing.  Call is JAG. Thomas isn't losing playing time in any configuration. He plays in right or in center. Not that he's above average or anything, but he's a 4th OF on a good team and a second division starter.

There's a SPH event at the end of January with Davey and Scialaba.  The question for Davey is pretty simple:  Does Robles start against righty starters every day?  IF the answer is yes, then playing time gets very complicated for the other outfielders, corner IFs, and DHs.  If no, then Smith, Dickerson, Candelario, Meneses, can be managed for playing time.

[Natsinpwc]

Well, in fairness, there's a lot of team control, and peak years are 27-32 or so, so some peak left on those guys.  Plenty of examples of guys who blossom late. Garrett is intriguing.  Call is JAG. Thomas isn't losing playing time in any configuration. He plays in right or in center. Not that he's above average or anything, but he's a 4th OF on a good team and a second division starter.

There's a SPH event at the end of January with Davey and Scialaba.  The question for Davey is pretty simple:  Does Robles start against righty starters every day?  IF the answer is yes, then playing time gets very complicated for the other outfielders, corner IFs, and DHs.  If no, then Smith, Dickerson, Candelario, Meneses, can be managed for playing time.

But most folks have written off Robles and Kieboom who are 25.  I think these guys all get a chance. Dickerson adds to depth and it’s also possible he helps the younger ones learn how to be a MLB player including sitting on the bench at times.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Robles has had 1675 PAs in the majors.  For comparison, Garrett has had 84.  Robles's stats have stabilized over the past 3 years (nearly 1000 PAs).  It's a lot tougher to project any significant adjustments that will make into even a slightly below average hitter that we hope for to go with his defense.

FWIW, Kieboom has had 414 PAs.  That's enough to be concerned, maybe put up or shut up, but not enough to write off. 

[Smithian]

But most folks have written off Robles and Kieboom who are 25.  I think these guys all get a chance. Dickerson adds to depth and it’s also possible he helps the younger ones learn how to be a MLB player including sitting on the bench at times.

I am on record wanting Kieboom to get first shot at third this season. But you’re right I’m ready to trade Robles for a grab bag of bubblegum.

[imref]

It seems pretty obvious barring a spring training to end all spring trainings that Keiboom will start the year in Rochester. Not sure where that leaves Alu.

[Smithian]

It seems pretty obvious barring a spring training to end all spring trainings that Keiboom will start the year in Rochester. Not sure where that leaves Alu.

Alu could play another infield spot? Not certain his bat plays in corner long term on a winning club. May help himself showing versatility.

[Slateman]

Alu could play another infield spot? Not certain his bat plays in corner long term on a winning club. May help himself showing versatility.

Alu should get shuffled around. Third, second, outfield. He can be the Vargas replacement next season

[nobleisthyname]

They are hoping to compete for a while this year to help with attendance.  Because of the draft rules not much point to tanking.  If they can win 70 games versus 65 games many will be happy.  Including me.  Like I said as soon as he is blocking someone good let us know.  Last year they were clearly tanking so playing Cruz in the second half actually made lots of sense.

Maybe wrong thread for this but how exactly does this work? Say the Nats end with the worst record again, what is the highest pick they could get? What would be the lowest?

[Section214]

Maybe wrong thread for this but how exactly does this work? Say the Nats end with the worst record again, what is the highest pick they could get? What would be the lowest?

I believe they are not allowed to pick in the top 6 next year.

[nobleisthyname]

I believe they are not allowed to pick in the top 6 next year.

Right, but could it be even lower than 7th as well or would they still be guaranteed the 7th pick? That's what I haven't seen any information on yet (admittedly haven't looked very hard).

[imref]

I believe they are not allowed to pick in the top 6 next year.

It depends on if the Nationals qualify for revenue sharing or not. If they do, they are eligible for a top-six pick next year. If not, they they cannot pick higher than 7th next year.

[nobleisthyname]

It depends on if the Nationals qualify for revenue sharing or not. If they do, they are eligible for a top-six pick next year. If not, they they cannot pick higher than 7th next year.

Oh man, even more complications. How does a team qualify for revenue sharing?