2022-2023 Off-season Discussion Thread

[Smithian]

I'm fine with Dom Smith signing. Costs less than half of what Voit cost and is younger. And the organization has plenty of position limited players who could use ABs if Smith struggles. My biggest concern is why he would come to Washington. Perhaps they promised him more plate time.

[Smithian]

Smith was once the "next big thing" for the Mets, their young power-hitting 1B of the future. He was never really bad. Respectably signing.

A sign of how bad the team is, and will be: all the repoprts that play X, Y, and Z has been brought in to "compete" with Kieboom. They did, at least, re-sign Vargas. NOT "resign", let's emphasize. Maybe the Nats should resign from owning Kieboom?

I want them to give Kieboom some more time, with that time closely correlated to Jake Alu's performance in Rochester.

If this team was meant to be competitive, I'd be over Kieboom. But the team will be bad. Let's see what happens with him.

[welch]

Or maybe you dont discard top 50 prospects before they get a full season of plate appearances. Particularly when you're going to be a 100 loss team and you have no qualms over starting below average hitters at over half your other positions.

Maybe you have forgotten that Kieboom never got a full season of plate appearances because he flopped year after year? And cannot field, either?

Robles is bad, but at least he can catch drives in CF. That makes Robles a decent 8th inning defensive replacement, unless he throws the ball away. Kieboom has not shown value doing anything. Of course, miracles sometimes happen, so give Kieboom yet another chance. But the idea of Kieboom as the default starting 1B is bizarre.

[imref]

AJ Alexy DFA'd to make room for Smith. The Nats claimed Alexy in December from the Rangers after he had been DFA'd.

Francisco Perez and LHP Anthony Banda get a ST invite / minor league deals.

[Slateman]

Maybe you have forgotten that Kieboom never got a full season of plate appearances because he flopped year after year? And cannot field, either?

Robles is bad, but at least he can catch drives in CF. That makes Robles a decent 8th inning defensive replacement, unless he throws the ball away. Kieboom has not shown value doing anything. Of course, miracles sometimes happen, so give Kieboom yet another chance. But the idea of Kieboom as the default starting 1B is bizarre.

Kieboom he got half a season in 2020 and he got hurt in 2021, so Im failing to see your point.

This team is literally filled with players who haven't shown value recently. Garcia, Abrams, Call, Smith ... to say nothing of any of the starting pitcher.

The 2023 Nationals are the High AAA club of the organization. They are a minor leage developmental camp.

[Natsinpwc]

AJ Alexy DFA'd to make room for Smith. The Nats claimed Alexy in December from the Rangers after he had been DFA'd.

Francisco Perez and LHP Anthony Banda get a ST invite / minor league deals.

Don’t recognize these names. What sport?

[imref]

Don’t recognize these names. What sport?

Pickleball I think.

[imref]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dominic-smith-secures-a-position-with-the-nationals/

[imref]

So where we stand, January 5th edition:
C: Kiebert Ruiz
1B: Dominic Smith
2B: Luis Garcia
SS: CJ Abrams
3B: Jeimar Candelario
LF: Joey Meneses
CF: Victor Robles
RF: Lane Thomas
DH: Riley Adams (?)

Bench: Carter Kieboom, Jeter Downs, Ildemaro Vargas, Stone Garrett, Alex Call, Israel Pineda (Someone will be at AAA)

SP: Gore, Cavalli, Gray, Corbin, Williams
BP: Weems, Ward, Thompson, Ramirez, Machado, Harvey, Finnegan, Espino, Edwards, Arano, Abbott (obviously several of these guys end up at AAA)

IL: Strasburg, Rainey

Would have to hit .500 with 30HRs in Spring or strike out ever batter they face to make the team: Alu, Irvin, Cronin, Ferrer, Adon, Rutledge, De La Rosa

Lineup:
1. Thomas
2. Candelario
3. Meneses
4. Ruiz
5. Adams
6. Smith
7. Garcia
8. Abrams
9. Robles

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So where we stand, January 5th edition:
C: Kiebert Ruiz
1B: Dominic Smith
2B: Luis Garcia
SS: CJ Abrams
3B: Jeimar Candelario
LF: Joey Meneses
CF: Victor Robles
RF: Lane Thomas
DH: Riley Adams (?)

Bench: Carter Kieboom, Jeter Downs, Ildemaro Vargas, Stone Garrett, Alex Call, Israel Pineda (Someone will be at AAA)

SP: Gore, Cavalli, Gray, Corbin, Williams
BP: Weems, Ward, Thompson, Ramirez, Machado, Harvey, Finnegan, Espino, Edwards, Arano, Abbott (obviously several of these guys end up at AAA)

IL: Strasburg, Rainey

Would have to hit .500 with 30HRs in Spring or strike out ever batter they face to make the team: Alu, Irvin, Cronin, Ferrer, Adon, Rutledge, De La Rosa

Lineup:
1. Thomas
2. Candelario
3. Meneses
4. Ruiz
5. Adams
6. Smith
7. Garcia
8. Abrams
9. Robles

I'd quibble with Adams as DH. I suspect that's Meneses, with Stone Garrett in LF, but it could be 4 guys into 3 slots (LF/1B/DH among Garrrett, Candy, smith, and Meneses) if Kieboom starts at 3rd. Jeter Downs starts the year in AAA (presumption). 

[welch]

Candelario (?), Vargas, Alu, should get first chance at 3B.

[Natsinpwc]

Kieboom is 3B to start the year unless he totally tanks in spring training. If he hits but can’t field he will be the DH.  No reason not to give him a chance this year. Make or break. Top draft picks get more chances. Fact of life.

[Slateman]

Kieboom is 3B to start the year unless he totally tanks in spring training. If he hits but can’t field he will be the DH.  No reason not to give him a chance this year. Make or break. Top draft picks get more chances. Fact of life.

Oh my god, someone with logic.

Kieboom is starting at third and playing virtually every day. Whether its here or in Triple A. High draft picks and top prospects get chances.  He just turned 25 and he barely has 400 plate appearances to his career. We lose absolutely nothing by giving him 100 games.

Candelario can DH. Or Smith. Or Meneses. Or we can finally get rid of Robles.

Alu can and should play more than 60 games to determine any real ability. His ceiling is Lombordozzi so ... yea .... how about we not just hand him the job.

Vargas has like two good months in his career. He's 30. He is not an every day caliber player. Why hand him any starting time at all? If you're going to waste Kieboom AND Downs on the bench, then you have zero use for Vargas at all.

Kieboom, Garcia, Abrams, and Downs all have a crap ton to prove. The only way they can do that is by playing every day over an extended period of time. The only way that happens is by starting.

Like I said, this is a minor league team focused on developing talent. The Nolls, Vargases, and Alus of the world can go sit down.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Kieboom plays if healthy.  OTOH, he's coming off of TJ, right?  If he's not healthy, then its Candelario to start with. 

I think the mention of Alu is more if he can kick the door in.  I agree that does not happen for several months in AAA where he hits like he did in AA.  At that point, he may get a shot if Kieboom is flailing.  Figure June,at the earliest, or when one of the vets gets moved (trade deadline). Meneses 2021 time line.

Candelario plays somewhere. They did not sign him to sit. Smith also plays at the very least against righties.  Perhaps Garrett gets squeezed.

[imref]

If I had to place a bet, i'd bet Kieboom starts the year in AAA. I agree that he needs to play everyday.

[Slateman]

Kieboom plays if healthy.  OTOH, he's coming off of TJ, right?  If he's not healthy, then its Candelario to start with. 

I think the mention of Alu is more if he can kick the door in.  I agree that does not happen for several months in AAA where he hits like he did in AA.  At that point, he may get a shot if Kieboom is flailing.  Figure June,at the earliest, or when one of the vets gets moved (trade deadline). Meneses 2021 time line.

Candelario plays somewhere. They did not sign him to sit. Smith also plays at the very least against righties.  Perhaps Garrett gets squeezed.

If Kieboom isnt healthy by now, he never will be. His TJS was in May. He should be good.

If you want to DH him in Triple A for a month or two because he hasnt seen competitive pitching in a year, okay. But this  idea that we're going to waste him on the bench in a developmental year is ludicrous.

Alu and Downs will get opportunities. Abrams, Garcia, and Kieboom are all injury prone. They'll go on the IL soon enough and the Nats will need replacements. And frankly, if Garcia ever hits well enough to warrant keeping at the MLB level, then you simply slide him to LF or DH

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think it will take a lot for Garcia to be moved off of 2nd in 2023.  I'm not sold on the guy long term, but they seem to be.  Abrams as well.  I don't see either of these guys getting moved until House is ready.  That is, unless they come up hurt.

I suppose Downs could displace Garcia if he suddenly proves the Red Sox to be idiots for waiving him.  Possible, but I agree he's first going to have to show it in AAA. 

[imref]

if we need a high-upside, cheap LHB:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/giants-release-tommy-la-stella.html

[imref]

Garcia hit .275 /  .295 / .408 in 360 ABs last year with 7 HRs. He's 22.

How is that not good enough to stay at the major league level?

[Natsinpwc]

Garcia hit .275 /  .295 / .408 in 360 ABs last year with 7 HRs. He's 22.

How is that not good enough to stay at the major league level?

Yeah. He needs more walks to get the OBP higher. I think the danger is pitchers figure out and stop throwing him strikes and that performance declines. Real question on him is defense.

[Natsinpwc]

if we need a high-upside, cheap LHB:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/giants-release-tommy-la-stella.html

[imref]

Yeah. He needs more walks to get the OBP higher. I think the danger is pitchers figure out and stop throwing him strikes and that performance declines. Real question on him is defense.

agreed, but the overall defense was pretty good with Abrams at SS and Garcia at 2nd. Garcia isn't going anywhere absent a major slump.

[Natsinpwc]

agreed, but the overall defense was pretty good with Abrams at SS and Garcia at 2nd. Garcia isn't going anywhere absent a major slump.

I’m just nervous after guys like Espinosa and Robles. They showed promise but the pitchers figured them out.  Cautiously optimistic but thought he still looked bad defensively at 2B which was disappointing. Seems to lack some baseball IQ.

[Slateman]

I think it will take a lot for Garcia to be moved off of 2nd in 2023.  I'm not sold on the guy long term, but they seem to be.  Abrams as well.  I don't see either of these guys getting moved until House is ready.  That is, unless they come up hurt.

I suppose Downs could displace Garcia if he suddenly proves the Red Sox to be idiots for waiving him.  Possible, but I agree he's first going to have to show it in AAA. 

I think they like the potential of the bat. But he is one of the worst infield defenders in all of baseball. He has stone hands, awkward footwork, and a noodle arm. None of that is going to improve significantly, especially with the shift going away.

So if he figures out how to hit well enough (I dont think he will but thats another conversation) to be worth keeping at 2B, then he will hit well enough to be moved to LF or DH.

[Slateman]

I’m just nervous after guys like Espinosa and Robles. They showed promise but the pitchers figured them out.  Cautiously optimistic but thought he still looked bad defensively at 2B which was disappointing. Seems to lack some baseball IQ.

He was bad. So was Abrams, but we remember the flashy range plays and not botching balls. Abrams posted -6 DRS and -8 OAA at shortstop last year. We view the infield defense as improved largely because Vargas was competent at third, and moving Garcia off SS meant going from apocalyptically awful to merely bad.

I think Abrams will improve, as he is a super athletic guy. But he's never going to be an elite defender. Much as Turner, he lacks the arm strenght.

The approach that both Abrams and Garcia has is concerning. They seem to want to swing at everything. Its not going to take much time for opposing pitchers to figure that out.