The Cavalli Has Arrived (delayed until 2024) - Cade Cavalli

[Natsinpwc]

I'm not giving any benefit of doubt, I'm calling a spade a spade. There's no tear, just inflammation. Nats said it's precautionary and if they were in contention they would just skip a start. There's nothing "risky" about promoting Cavalli outside of standard pitching risk. He wasn't injured.

You may be right but one of the problems with young pitchers is that they often hide injuries.

[catocony]

At least for starting pitchers, it can be hard to tell if there's a shoulder injury or just extra after-start swelling.  Sometimes it is perfectly, like when there's a really sharp pain.  Other times, it's shrug off as usual swelling that will clear up in a day or two.  After a couple of days, it may still be sore a bit but pitching feels fine once they warm up.  Rinse and repeat X number of starts until one day the sharp pain comes and doesn't go away.  That's when they usually tell someone because at that point the usually and very visually can't really pitch.

[Smithian]

You may be right but one of the problems with young pitchers is that they often hide injuries.

If they think he hid pain until he got up here to start his clock, trade his ass the first time possible.

[Slateman]

If they think he hid pain until he got up here to start his clock, trade his ass the first time possible.

If he pitched that well in pain, sign him to an extension

[Mattionals]

If he pitched that well in pain, sign him to an extension

So we can have two Strasburg's under long term contracts? BRILLIANT!

[Kevrock]

At least for starting pitchers, it can be hard to tell if there's a shoulder injury or just extra after-start swelling.  Sometimes it is perfectly, like when there's a really sharp pain.  Other times, it's shrug off as usual swelling that will clear up in a day or two.  After a couple of days, it may still be sore a bit but pitching feels fine once they warm up.  Rinse and repeat X number of starts until one day the sharp pain comes and doesn't go away.  That's when they usually tell someone because at that point the usually and very visually can't really pitch.

This is a really accurate post. It's really hard for pitchers to judge their own arms and bodies because there's such a wide spectrum of feedback that your arm gives you every single day.

[Natsinpwc]

This is a really accurate post. It's really hard for pitchers to judge their own arms and bodies because there's such a wide spectrum of feedback that your arm gives you every single day.

Fair enough. I just think it’s difficult for a young guy trying to make it to raise a concern when something does not feel normal.  Look at all the abuse Strasburg took from fans for not being able to pitch through pain or discomfort or what we you call it.  Probably the only reason he lasted as long as he did. Athletes in general are expected to tough it out and we glorify the ones that do.

[imref]

MLB Pipeline picks Cavalli as our most likely RoY candidate:


https://www.mlb.com/news/rookie-of-the-year-candidates-2023

[hotshot]

What are the reasons why so many starting pitchers in the 1950s and 60s regularly threw 200-250 innings, year after year, without all the chronic, debilitating arm problems we see today?

[Slateman]

What are the reasons why so many starting pitchers in the 1950s and 60s regularly threw 200-250 innings, year after year, without all the chronic, debilitating arm problems we see today?

They threw 75 miles an hour

[Natsinpwc]

What are the reasons why so many starting pitchers in the 1950s and 60s regularly threw 200-250 innings, year after year, without all the chronic, debilitating arm problems we see today?

Throwing too many innings at a young age. They play baseball all year around from a young age. 

[Natsinpwc]

They threw 75 miles an hour

As you know the way they measure has changed over the years.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/the-measure-of-a-fastball-has-changed-over-the-years/

[hotshot]

They threw 75 miles an hour

Funny, but not close to a good answer.

It's gotten to the point of why draft starting pitching at all? Certainly not with your top picks. Might as well just take your chances with "surprises" from lower positioned picks, good fortune with your international scouting, and the trade market where you have a better idea of what you're getting. 

Starters only pitch for you every fifth day and then hopefully give you, what, 5-6 innings? Then, you face all sorts of physical breakdowns requiring questionable long-term surgical intervention, years'-long recoveries, prognoses for contract out-years that are crap shoots, etc.

If I were a GM, I'm looking at the odds and taking my chances at the top of the draft with everyday position players. 

[Slateman]

Funny, but not close to a good answer.

It's gotten to the point of why draft starting pitching at all? Certainly not with your top picks. Might as well just take your chances with "surprises" from lower positioned picks, good fortune with your international scouting, and the trade market where you have a better idea of what you're getting. 

Starters only pitch for you every fifth day and then hopefully give you, what, 5-6 innings? Then, you face all sorts of physical breakdowns requiring questionable long-term surgical intervention, years'-long recoveries, prognoses for contract out-years that are crap shoots, etc.

If I were a GM, I'm looking at the odds and taking my chances at the top of the draft with everyday position players. 

7 of the top 10 starting rotations made the playoffs. You absolutely need starting pitching.

Guys throw way harder now than they did in the 60s. Their arms experiencing far greater stressors and torque. Nolan Ryan would be normal in today's game

[Natsinpwc]

https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/mlb-pitching-injuries/#

I will listen to Dr. Andrews. 

[Kevrock]

Funny, but not close to a good answer.

It's gotten to the point of why draft starting pitching at all? Certainly not with your top picks.

This is a fine point - actually, teams are drafting less starting pitching with top picks.

There are 4 categories of draft prospects, HS hitters, HS pitchers, College pitchers, College hitters. From 1981-2009, college pitchers were the favorite target of teams. Now they are third, ahead of only high school pitchers.

BA published some stats on this, but here's the most relevant I think:

2012-2021, top 5 rounds

33% College hitters
27% HS hitters
24% College pitchers
17% HS pitchers

[Natsinpwc]

This is a fine point - actually, teams are drafting less starting pitching with top picks.

There are 4 categories of draft prospects, HS hitters, HS pitchers, College pitchers, College hitters. From 1981-2009, college pitchers were the favorite target of teams. Now they are third, ahead of only high school pitchers.

BA published some stats on this, but here's the most relevant I think:

2012-2021, top 5 rounds

33% College hitters
27% HS hitters
24% College pitchers
17% HS pitchers

Ok. You said less but those are not comparative stats. What was it the previous ten years?  It’s still 40% pitchers which is about their percentage of a roster.

[imref]

it has been a while since I looked at the stat, but historically there's a very strong correlation between innings pitched by starters and team wins. I can see the argument for not risking high draft picks on pitchers though, and instead focusing on obtaining starting pitching via trade and international markets.

[Natsinpwc]

Just picked a random year to look at first round picks.  1995. 14 of 30 were pitchers first round.

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/draft/baseball-draft.php?yr=1995

[Natsinpwc]

it has been a while since I looked at the stat, but historically there's a very strong correlation between innings pitched by starters and team wins. I can see the argument for not risking high draft picks on pitchers though, and instead focusing on obtaining starting pitching via trade and international markets.

Think it’s just as much of a crapshoot with first round bats. Either way it’s expensive to add free agents and to make trades.

[Kevrock]

Ok. You said less but those are not comparative stats. What was it the previous ten years?  It’s still 40% pitchers which is about their percentage of a roster.

I don’t understand your post. Do you want the trends over decades? If so I can post it later. Less pitchers are drafted at a lower clip now than ever before. They used to be the selection of choice.

[catocony]

Funny, but not close to a good answer.

They threw faster than 75, but your average starter was probably topping out at 86-88.  A consistent 90mph fastball was still a rarity in the Majors back in the late 80s, at least for starters.  Lots of guys could through 90+, but not on every single pitch.  It wasn't until hitters started roiding up in the 90s that pitchers had to go max effort on every single pitch. 

[Slateman]

They threw faster than 75, but your average starter was probably topping out at 86-88.  A consistent 90mph fastball was still a rarity in the Majors back in the late 80s, at least for starters.  Lots of guys could through 90+, but not on every single pitch.  It wasn't until hitters started roiding up in the 90s that pitchers had to go max effort on every single pitch. 

Exactly. No one was throwing anything this hard. No one had ever heard of a 90+ mph changeup or slider. No one was throwing 85 mph curveballs.

Body simply cannot handle that, so they're breaking down.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Exactly. No one was throwing anything this hard. No one had ever heard of a 90+ mph changeup or slider. No one was throwing 85 mph curveballs.

Body simply cannot handle that, so they're breaking down.

Using FG's leader boards, Sandy Alcantara had the top average FB velocity among qualified pitchers at 97.9 mph.  Cole was 97.8.  Verlander was 10th among qualified starters at 95.1.  42 qualified starters had fastballs 90 or higher.  there were 45 qualified starters, so more than 90% topped 90 mph.

Strider pitched 131 innings, and Greene pitched 125. 99 average for Greene, 98.2 for Strider.  Let's see how long the latter two can keep their arms intact.   

In 2002, first year with data on FG, no qualified pitcher topped 95.  AJ Burnett led LB at 94.5 mph.  Kerry Wood was only 94.3.  26 pitchers topped 90 mph on average.  There were 85 qualified starters, so around 30% topped 90. 

[Natsinpwc]

Sure they throw faster. But fewer innings. I am sure that is some factor but the doctors seem to say it is from too much pitching at a young age.  A kid at 18 now has probably thrown ten times as much as a similar kid back in the 1960s. 

I will keep listening to Dr Andrews rather than dudes who maybe stayed at a Holiday Inn.

https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/mlb-pitching-injuries/