The Cavalli Has Arrived - Cade Cavalli

[Slateman]

Between majors and minors last year, Cavalli threw 122 innings. So far this year, he's thrown 104. Assuming 12 more starts, give or take, and a baseline of 5-6 innings per start, that's a minimum of 164 innings and (if he really is a stud), as many as 190.

At what point do we have to start limiting his innings? Either a shutdown (The Strasburg), or do what the White Sox did with Crochet (continuing to start him but pulling him at 3-4 innings)?

[blue911]

He’s throwing about 15% fewer pitches per start than Strasburg or about three weeks worth by season’s end. Probably do nothing outside of normal monitoring. Looks like they built in the shutdown.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-nats-need-cade-cavalli-to-pan-out/

Ben Clemens writes about whether the Nats can count on Cavalli's top-of-the-rotation performance for the rest of the year. Loves the curve and his sweeperish pitch, which drive his hig GB rates. Also likes his low walk rate. 19 pout of  the 20 pitchers with comparable high GB low BB rates and 70+ innings have ERAs and FIPS under 3.50. HE's Critical of his fastball, which is mediocre and which he leaves over the plate too much. Notes his high prospect pedigree but also comments on the lack of success of the bulk of highly rated prospect pitchers in his peer group.

Back to the fastball and lack of track record:

Cavalli’s fastball was a lot of the appeal in his prospect profile. He still throws quite hard, even after all the injury issues; he tops out near 100 mph and sits in the 96-97 band consistently. But raw velocity isn’t enough, and the rest of the pitch’s characteristics are somewhere between ordinary and bad. Movement-wise, it sits right in the dead zone. He gets less backspin and less arm-side fade than your average hard fastball, and since he releases it from a roughly average arm angle with roughly average extension, there’s just no bat-missing or contact-suppressing juice.

As of yet, there doesn’t appear to be much control juice there either. This is a tough thing to measure, because it’s impossible to prove intent, but there are certainly some troubling signs in Cavalli’s data. He leaves his fastball over the heart of the plate more than league average, but hits the corners less than league average. PitchingBot thinks he throws more meatballs – pitches that the model assigns a 3% or higher chance of being hit out of the park – than league average. Our two pitching models both think that his fastball is below average overall. The results, as measured by run value, have been poor. This isn’t a particularly difficult pattern to follow.

Where does that leave us? In a state of uncertainty, just like the Nationals. The truth is that we just don’t know whether Cavalli is going to turn his confusing profile into sustainable success. He has some good pitches. He has some bad pitches. He’s still working on a profile that will maximize his talents. It’s certainly working right now – but we’ve been robbed of a lot of opportunities to evaluate Cavalli because of all the missed time.

[Slateman]

I believe he tried to alter his grip/arm slot in order to improve his fastball and he believes that is what led to his injury issues coming off TJS.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I believe he tried to alter his grip/arm slot in order to improve his fastball and he believes that is what led to his injury issues coming off TJS.

iirc, his fastball has a natural cut now rather than a tail.

[Slateman]

iirc, his fastball has a natural cut now rather than a tail.

Its very slight and isn't helping much. He really needs to harness his changeup. That thing has a ton of fade. He figures that out and he has three plus offerings.

[Slateman]

Bump

7 straight quality starts

[GataNats]

I was down on him early.  He’s getting better as the season rolls on

[imref]

Rizzo's team finally coming through

[imref]

Via Nationals communications:

Cade Cavalli has now allowed three earned runs or fewer in 26 of his 28 starts, the most in Major League Baseball.

1. Cade Cavalli - 26
T2. Jacob Misiorowski - 24
T2. Cam Schlittler - 24

[aspenbubba]

Finally, we have an ACE since Max

[Slateman]

Just in time to trade him

[zimm_da_kid]

Just in time to trade him

Yeah. Decent chance he’s gone in the offseason. Who is in the market for pitching? Cubs? Wouldn’t mind hartshorn and or ayers

Sell high on kiebert too

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Just in time to trade him

he has 3  years of control. Had 2.141 service time going into the year, so we will have 3, 4 & 5 before free agency eligibility. In contrast, Gore only had 2 years after last season. It's about what you think this team will be in 2028 and 2029. Gore would have been gone, but Cavailli is here for those years.

[Slateman]

he has 3  years of control. Had 2.141 service time going into the year, so we will have 3, 4 & 5 before free agency eligibility. In contrast, Gore only had 2 years after last season. It's about what you think this team will be in 2028 and 2029. Gore would have been gone, but Cavailli is here for those years.

Yea, but next season is basically a lost one. Toboni will cash in at whatever deadline there is.

[varoadking]

Yea, but next season is basically a lost one. Toboni will cash in at whatever deadline there is.

Gonna be hard to replace him at any reasonable cost...I'm betting he stays...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Yea, but next season is basically a lost one. Toboni will cash in at whatever deadline there is.

Not at the minor league level, so the Fitz-Geralds and the Willits will still develop. I've assumed 2028 is the target for serious contention. If it is 2030, then several guys will be extended or dealt.

On the downside, several pitchers have to be added to the 40 man after the season (Susana, Sykora, Rosario), so a lockout might impact their timeline.

[spidernat]

I've assumed 2028 is the target for serious contention. If it is 2030, then several guys will be extended or dealt.

Holy freaking crap 

[Slateman]

Not at the minor league level, so the Fitz-Geralds and the Willits will still develop. I've assumed 2028 is the target for serious contention. If it is 2030, then several guys will be extended or dealt.

On the downside, several pitchers have to be added to the 40 man after the season (Susana, Sykora, Rosario), so a lockout might impact their timeline.

Even if we're in contention, they're still going to sell high on guys.

[imref]

Let's take a step back to recognize the season Cavalli has put up so far this year. He's been a Cy Young-level pitcher.

- 3.12 ERA overall, 2.05 in his last 11 starts and a 2.73 ERA in his last 20
- 28 starts with 3ER or fewer, most in the majors (and only two behind Max's 2018 campaign for most in a Nats season)
- 4th in the NL in K's, 10th in ERA, 12th in WHIP

The Cavalli has certainly arrived.

[Squab]

a big change for him in late July and August was throwing his 4 seamer less, and the sweeper and cutter more.

Pitch June   August
4FB  36.3% 27%
KCV 25.2% 29.4%
SW  10.9% 25%
FC   5%      10.7%
SI    15.3% 9.7%

[varoadking]

a big change for him in late July and August was throwing his 4 seamer less, and the sweeper and cutter more.

Pitch June   August
4FB  36.3% 27%
KCV 25.2% 29.4%
SW  10.9% 25%
FC   5%      10.7%
SI    15.3% 9.7%

That might be one reason he's still able to throw 98MPH after 100 pitches like he did yesterday...