The Cavalli Has Arrived - Cade Cavalli

[PowerBoater69]

Simon Matthews worked his way up the Reds organization and was promoted to the MB staff by Terry Francona. He maybe young, but he didn't fall by accident into this job.

Now that the I don't care how fast you throw ball four signs are down do you think they get replaced by the stakes are high and so am I or the night is young and I'm full of cum?

[varoadking]

I like that we have a pitching coach who still lives in his parents' basement.

 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitchers-shouldnt-be-allowed-to-wear-a-single-digit-uniform-number-without-a-government-license/

discusses the outrageous offense being perpetrated by the Nats by MacKEnzie Gore's and Cade Cavalli's uniforms.

[madj55]

Pretty sure Cavalli never pitched in #9 outside of the minors - took #24 back when Gallo left.

Is Cavalli the Opening Day starter now?

[imref]

Pretty sure Cavalli never pitched in #9 outside of the minors - took #24 back when Gallo left.

Is Cavalli the Opening Day starter now?

Probably, if he’s healthy.

[nobleisthyname]

Our new pitching coach likes Cade - https://x.com/SideRetiredPod/status/2012589338555556216?s=20

Seeing him be the MLB pitching coach reminds me of my friend's baby who had a full set of baby teeth at 8 months. Like an uncanny valley or something it doesn't look right.

Of course he's still older than the entire pitching staff sans Trevor Williams.

[Slateman]

https://www.federalbaseball.com/washington-nationals-analysis/88897/nationals-cade-cavalli-working-on-a-new-pitch-could-change-game-for-him

The good news is that, entering the 2026 campaign, it appears Cavalli is working on a new pitch that will give him an edge against righties. According to Mark Zuckerman of Nats Journal, Cavalli has spent the offseason working on a sweeper for his arsenal, a pitch similar to a slider, but less sharp and with more verticality. If he can get a feel for it and incorporate the pitch into his pitch arsenal, he may finally have the answer he’s been looking for to getting right-handed hitters out consistently.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.federalbaseball.com/washington-nationals-analysis/88897/nationals-cade-cavalli-working-on-a-new-pitch-could-change-game-for-him

dumb me. I thought a sweeper had more horizontal movement and less vertical relative to a slider

[imref]

gotta think that if Cavalli has a good start he gets moved. He's 27 with 3 more years of team control. That could bring a decent return if the plan is to be competitive in 27-28.

[IanRubbish]

gotta think that if Cavalli has a good start he gets moved. He's 27 with 3 more years of team control. That could bring a decent return if the plan is to be competitive in 27-28.

The plan is to keep pinching pennies as a higher priority than winning.  It will be until the team is sold.  Not sure how "being competitive" is defined, but I'd bet CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Dylan Crews will follow what was done with Trea Turner, Lane Thomas, MacKenzie Gore, and Soto and will be traded while they're still arb eligible.  Cavalli's not on the same salary path, so he might have a little bit of a longer tenure.  Either way, the misers hate those upwardly rising salaries more than losing. 

[madj55]

Very happy for Cade - wish it lined up for him to start the home opener as well but I don’t think it will.

[Smithian]

gotta think that if Cavalli has a good start he gets moved. He's 27 with 3 more years of team control. That could bring a decent return if the plan is to be competitive in 27-28.

If someone offers a huge package of pieces, yes. But I don't think he is going to fetch the Gore package even with a dominant first half.

It's pretty hard right now to judge the trade deadline. The price of players is going to change not just on their performance but the team's. If House and Crews are hitting and the Nationals like how the system is looking in a few months, prices go up. If Nats are bad again, not only are prices down but possible trade candidates probably are making themselves untradable.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He is under team control through 2029. I think it is highly unlikely that he would be dealt after 3 good healthy months. It’s more likely he signs a long term deal than he gets dealt. That's unlikely too, but it's the difference between unlikely and highly unlikely.

In terms of trade value, you'd barely have a track record of health and proof of his ability to prevent runs vs MLB. Give him a year and a half, or more, his value jumps, and there's still plenty of team control. Things click, his value gets to the type of deals offered for Joe Ryan the past year or two.

Beyond trade value, there's a decent chance this team will have a good position line up and most of a pitching staff by 2028, with Willits and Fien overlapping with Wood and Lile and others

[tomterp]

He's got BEAST written all over him.  Just pray he stays healthy.   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Klaw tabs Cade as one of his top 10 breakout candidates:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7124750/2026/03/19/mlb-breakout-candidates-2026

Cavalli didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2023 and 2024 while he was recovering from late-2022 Tommy John surgery, with some setbacks along the way. When he returned to the majors in the second half of last year, he was better than when we’d last seen him (when he was probably pitching with a partial tear anyway). His velocity was up across the board, with a 1.5 mph gain on his four-seamer and a 2.6 mph gain on his two-seamer, and his curveball had more depth. He had also swapped out his traditional slider for a cutter that averaged 93.5 mph. Some of the change was probably due to a higher arm slot, which would tend to produce more vertical break on a curveball.

Cavalli generated a ton of groundballs last year, which helped mitigate some of his fastball command issues, although in a small sample this spring, he has been more four-seam heavy than he was in 2025. In his 10 starts in the majors last year, he gave up more than a hit per inning, with seven homers in 48 2/3 innings pitched, and struck out only 40. I think those will flip; he’ll strike out well more than a batter an inning and bring those contact and hard-contact rates down — enough to be at least a league-average starter and the Nationals’ best pitcher.

[imref]

Perfect going into the 4th (1K),

Allowed a hit in the 4th and two in the fifth (including a double), but no runs. 71-47, 1K, 0BB. I assume he's done at this point.

[RobDibblesGhost]

Bust.

[imref]

Watched Gore too much and throws way too many pitches.

[Slateman]

Bust.

This is the first time I agree with this other than injury reasons. Griffin got on base and he lost his mind.

[madj55]

Looked way better last year. Concerning.

[Slateman]

Looked way better last year. Concerning.

Could throw strikes. Wasn't an issue in ST either. Just could not find the zone.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm hoping this was a one off, but more swing and miss would help. I think his breaking ball is classified different this year. IDK if he has a feel for it. Velocity on the fastball is down a bit but it is still good

[Slateman]

This was the start we've been waiting on.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This was the start we've been waiting on.

10ks, 0 BBs, but 7 hits and 5IP. 60 game score, -0.25 FIP.

[madj55]

Watched his bullpen before taking the mound yesterday - they really emphasized the fastball during the pen and it looked like it had something extra on it that I didn’t see his first few starts. Not sure if there’s any data to support or negate that claim.

Curveball was spectacular yesterday.