Premature in season speculation about next year's roster

[Count Walewski]

So .... are we in year 2 of the rebuild ... or did that start with trading Soto

For me, 2021 was the first year of the rebuild. In 2020 they were still trying to compete, just not very successfully.

[Monarch]

For me, 2021 was the first year of the rebuild. In 2020 they were still trying to compete, just not very successfully.

I think the rebuild started at the trade deadline last season. So we have (more or less) just finished year 1 of the rebuild. That's how I'm looking at it anyway.

[Natsinpwc]

They’ve been terrible since 2020. All that matters.

[imref]

https://www.talknats.com/2022/08/22/2023-roster-washington-nationals/

[Elvir Ovcina]

https://www.talknats.com/2022/08/22/2023-roster-washington-nationals/

I don't want to be too harsh, but has the writer of that article ever watched a baseball game? 

Like using one defensive stat source for one season (don't worry, things like Baseball Reference cut heavily the other way) to suggest that a 30-year-old Brandon Nimmo would be an upgrade on defense over Robles.  Um, what?

Like moving Garcia, who doesn't hit enough to play corner OF, to LF - to make room for Abrams, who can play SS but isn't hitting, to play 2B?

Like pointing out that Dansby Swanson only made $10 million this year as if he's not going to make at least twice that next season?

Like suggesting adding a #1 starter and then...Fedde as the #2?

I'm just...huh?  I understand that this article was about the up-the-middle positions, but I'm still totally baffled.  If Abrams doesn't play SS, he should be in CF, not 2B.  Garcia should never, ever, ever play corner OF.  As a corner OF, he is not a major league caliber player. 

[imref]

Looking at dWAR, Nimmo and Robles are roughly equal over the last 3 years. Definitely a hitting upgrade though.

[Natsinpwc]

I don't want to be too harsh, but has the writer of that article ever watched a baseball game? 

Like using one defensive stat source for one season (don't worry, things like Baseball Reference cut heavily the other way) to suggest that a 30-year-old Brandon Nimmo would be an upgrade on defense over Robles.  Um, what?

Like moving Garcia, who doesn't hit enough to play corner OF, to LF - to make room for Abrams, who can play SS but isn't hitting, to play 2B?

Like pointing out that Dansby Swanson only made $10 million this year as if he's not going to make at least twice that next season?

Like suggesting adding a #1 starter and then...Fedde as the #2?

I'm just...huh?  I understand that this article was about the up-the-middle positions, but I'm still totally baffled.  If Abrams doesn't play SS, he should be in CF, not 2B.  Garcia should never, ever, ever play corner OF.  As a corner OF, he is not a major league caliber player.

The one that got me was Fedde adding a change up.  I mean what has he been waiting for.

[Slateman]

I don't want to be too harsh, but has the writer of that article ever watched a baseball game? 

Like using one defensive stat source for one season (don't worry, things like Baseball Reference cut heavily the other way) to suggest that a 30-year-old Brandon Nimmo would be an upgrade on defense over Robles.  Um, what?

Like moving Garcia, who doesn't hit enough to play corner OF, to LF - to make room for Abrams, who can play SS but isn't hitting, to play 2B?

Like pointing out that Dansby Swanson only made $10 million this year as if he's not going to make at least twice that next season?

Like suggesting adding a #1 starter and then...Fedde as the #2?

I'm just...huh?  I understand that this article was about the up-the-middle positions, but I'm still totally baffled.  If Abrams doesn't play SS, he should be in CF, not 2B.  Garcia should never, ever, ever play corner OF.  As a corner OF, he is not a major league caliber player. 

If Garcia doesnt hit well enough to play LF, then, simply put, its time to move on. He will always be a defensive liability.

[UMDNats]

I get major Jesus Flores vibes from Garcia. A guy we all pencil into future lineups because we don't really have anyone else, but he isn't actually an impact player.

[Natsinpwc]

Cesar is rocking an OPS+ of 79 this year. In limits time Garcia is 105.  That would be a major offensive improvement at that position and a plus if he could be decent defensively.  You let him play for a couple of years and see what you have. Gave Victor a few years.

[imref]

I get major Jesus Flores vibes from Garcia. A guy we all pencil into future lineups because we don't really have anyone else, but he isn't actually an impact player.

Garcia mashed at AAA and has shown some glimpses at the major league level. He's only 22.

[welch]

Cesar is rocking an OPS+ of 79 this year. In limits time Garcia is 105.  That would be a major offensive improvement at that position and a plus if he could be decent defensively.  You let him play for a couple of years and see what you have. Gave Victor a few years.

Victor has an OPS+ of 71 this year. Maybe he belongs in Rochester as the OF the Nats can call up to ride the bench if somebody gets hurt.

[Slateman]

I get major Jesus Flores vibes from Garcia. A guy we all pencil into future lineups because we don't really have anyone else, but he isn't actually an impact player.

Wouldnt go that far. But in over a season of MLB play, he has one month where his bat justfies his atrocious defense. Maybe he improves defensively, but the longer he is up at the MLB level, the more his approach gets exploited by opposing pitchers.

[Slateman]

Victor has an OPS+ of 71 this year. Maybe he belongs in Rochester as the OF the Nats can call up to ride the bench if somebody gets hurt.

Robles is also a great defender in CF. The Nats wont have anyone ready to start in CF next year, so he he is likely going to start 2023 as the everyday CFer.

Best case scenario is that Hassell rakes and gets called up mid season

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It'll be interesting to see how they handle the catching depth this offseason.  Adams is coming back up and Barrera was sent down.  I did not mind Barrera at all as a backup.  Pineda is raking and I think would easily be grabbed in Rule 5 if he is not added.  I forget if Millas needs to be added or exposed.  I would like to see Adams or Pineda get a bit of time at a second position. I think there's a decent chance Pineda's bat plays well enough to be a catcher who also plays some in the field. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

Looking at dWAR, Nimmo and Robles are roughly equal over the last 3 years. Definitely a hitting upgrade though.

Not in CF they aren't in any real sense, even eye test aside.  Nimmo's defensive stats are greatly aided by his time in the corners and the comparison aided by Robles' 2020 fat-suit experience.  Nimmo's a negative for his career by both DRS and Total Zone in center.  He's had exactly one season - last year - in which he posted a positive number for either of those metrics as a centerfielder.

Robles isn't that.  The only year he was negative in both those categories was 2020, when he ate his way out of his speed.  He's not Big Vic anymore, and unsurprisingly he's good in CF again.

Nimmo is also four years older; guys who were below-average CFs in their late 20s don't generally get better when they hit 30, which he will be next year.

And yes, of course he's a hitting upgrade.  That's why he will cost a lot of money.  But that wasn't the writer's point.

[Slateman]

It'll be interesting to see how they handle the catching depth this offseason.  Adams is coming back up and Barrera was sent down.  I did not mind Barrera at all as a backup.  Pineda is raking and I think would easily be grabbed in Rule 5 if he is not added.  I forget if Millas needs to be added or exposed.  I would like to see Adams or Pineda get a bit of time at a second position. I think there's a decent chance Pineda's bat plays well enough to be a catcher who also plays some in the field. 

I just cant imagine they cant get something in trade for Adams or Barrera.

[Elvir Ovcina]

It'll be interesting to see how they handle the catching depth this offseason.  Adams is coming back up and Barrera was sent down.  I did not mind Barrera at all as a backup.  Pineda is raking and I think would easily be grabbed in Rule 5 if he is not added.  I forget if Millas needs to be added or exposed.  I would like to see Adams or Pineda get a bit of time at a second position. I think there's a decent chance Pineda's bat plays well enough to be a catcher who also plays some in the field.

I don't think Pineda would be grabbed in the major league phase.  MLB backup catchers actually have to play a lot, and the position is extremely important.  It's not like a reliever you can hide for a couple innings a week in games you're already behind.  There's a reason zero catchers have been picked in the Rule 5 draft since 2016.

[Smithian]

It'll be interesting to see how they handle the catching depth this offseason.  Adams is coming back up and Barrera was sent down.  I did not mind Barrera at all as a backup.  Pineda is raking and I think would easily be grabbed in Rule 5 if he is not added.  I forget if Millas needs to be added or exposed.  I would like to see Adams or Pineda get a bit of time at a second position. I think there's a decent chance Pineda's bat plays well enough to be a catcher who also plays some in the field. 

Barrera is a AAAA backup. Meneses's surge sort of stole the idea Adams could spend September getting every day at bats. He's now a backup C. He was playing some 1B in Rochester.

[Smithian]

I just cant imagine they cant get something in trade for Adams or Barrera.

No reason to move cost controlled backups backstops unless someone really wants to give us a cost controlled backup middle IF.

[Natsinpwc]

Barrera is a AAAA backup. Meneses's surge sort of stole the idea Adams could spend September getting every day at bats. He's now a backup C. He was playing some 1B in Rochester.

Meneses and Adams should split time between IB and DH with Adams getting a few starts at C. No reason Cruz should be blocking these guys.

[Smithian]

Meneses and Adams should split time between IB and DH with Adams getting a few starts at C. No reason Cruz should be blocking these guys.

I've given up on the dream of them benching Cruz and using him as a PH.

[Slateman]

Yea, the obsession with Cruz is concerning. I really dont care what veteran leadership he supposedly brings. It doesnt offset his PED history or his poor performance.

I'm betting they pick up his option next year. Its the kind ofncheap, dumb decision Rizzo would make.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No reason to move cost controlled backups backstops unless someone really wants to give us a cost controlled backup middle IF.

well, you have one more option on Barrera, while Pineda / Millas have 3.  I think Adams has 1 as well.  If your concern is cost controlled backup, Pineda may be your guy. 

I don't think Pineda would be grabbed in the major league phase.  MLB backup catchers actually have to play a lot, and the position is extremely important.  It's not like a reliever you can hide for a couple innings a week in games you're already behind.  There's a reason zero catchers have been picked in the Rule 5 draft since 2016.

Jesus Flores of course was a real exceptional bird.  You may be right that no one will grab him, but I think risk is a lot greater than is was 2 years ago when we first exposed him (no rule 5 last year).

[imref]

well, you have one more option on Barrera, while Pineda / Millas have 3.  I think Adams has 1 as well.  If your concern is cost controlled backup, Pineda may be your guy. 

Jesus Flores of course was a real exceptional bird.  You may be right that no one will grab him, but I think risk is a lot greater than is was 2 years ago when we first exposed him (no rule 5 last year).

We lost Adrian Nieto in the rule 5 draft to the White Sox in 2013, he was our top catching prospect at the time IIRC but we had Buffalo. He played one season in the majors as a backup, then never made it out of the minors again. He was at high A for us when we lost him.