Premature in season speculation about next year's roster

[Smithian]

why would you be excited about this?!?

Menses is a journeyman who has had a fun like 10 days so far in the majors. Atuna is a 740 OPS outfielder in high-A who is closer to off the 40 than the MLB. Kieboom is an objectively bad player at the MLB level. Espino is a journeyman. That is like a 70 win roster if everything goes perfectly!

I don't think anyone on this thread is excited thinking that a playoff run is in the cards. I just think some of us would be excited to not watch lineups stacked with Nelson Cruz, Mikael Franco, Cesar Hernadez and Strange-Gordon.

And if the Nationals win 70 next year, I would be thrilled.

[Section214]

And Werth was an albatross the entire time.

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=25857.0

Keep in mind that in 2024, the Nats will be paying almost 90 million for Patrick Corbin to suck, Strasburg to be hurt, and Scherzer to be deferred. That number goes down from 2025 to 2028 to 50 million a year in lost money.

I think that is very unfair to the impact that Werth had on the Nationals organization. He was very good in 2013 and 2014 and he had our first legendary moment as a franchise in the NLDS against St Louis. His injuries made it a bad contract, but we had to overpay anyone at that stage in our franchise just like we will now. The duration of his contract was a killer though and I would not want that for any of the guys available this offseason, except Trea.

[Natsinpwc]

Career OPS

Conforto.   .824
Benitendi. .780

More career WAR

[welch]

Career OPS

Conforto.   .824
Benitendi. .780

More career WAR

I've been following Conforto off and on. After all, I live in NYC now. However, Boras represents Conforto. Odd that no one picked him up after the draft, but maybe Boras is asking for too much. And, according to SI, Conforto hurt his shoulder practicing defense back in the Spring.

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/ex-mets-outfielder-michael-conforto-not-close-to-signing-with-a-team#:~:text=729%20OPS%20and%2014%20homers,wraps%20up%20on%20July%2019.

[Slateman]

 Benitendi is basically post-injury Adam Eaton. Does anyone want to give that 80-110 million dollars? Cus I don't

[Count Walewski]

Let's remember the goal here. This team is in a rebuild, rebuilds take 4-5 years. Realistically this team will not be good until the 2024 season at the earliest and perhaps not until the 2025 season. Everything the Nationals should do should be with the goal of making the 2024-2025+ Nationals as good as possible.

So what are realistic goals for the 2023 Nationals? To loose 100 games and earn the team a top 5 draft pick that can be used to draft a future superstar who will come to the majors in 2024 or 2025.

With that in mind every position should be manned by one of four types of players:

(1) prospects who have the potential to become superstars by 2024-2025
(2) superstars who will be under team control through at least the end of the 2025 season and are likely to still be superstars in 2025
(3) AAAA-level players who will make peanuts and put up replacement numbers - whether they are overpromoted minor leaguers or journeymen FAs is immaterial
(4) free agents signed for reasonably affordable 1-2 year deals in the hopes that the Nationals can trade them at the deadline for prospects

By #2, I mean guys like Manny Machado for the 2019 Padres or Jayson Werth for the 2011 Nationals. I think it's probably a year too early to make any moves like that. Look for that next offseason.

In terms of #3, I think that is where Kieboom staying on the team for another season comes into play. If he puts up a -1.7 WAR, that's great assuming he's not blocking a prospect. That's the kind of performance that will get you to 90+ losses and a top 5 draft pick.

In terms of #4, I would like to see the team sign some good relief pitchers. Obviously they will not have a ton of leads to hold in Washington, but every team is desperate for relief pitching at the deadline. This is also where you can pick players like Michael Conforto off the scrap heap, hope they have a bounceback season, and flip them at the deadline for lotto tickets.

In terms of #1, now is when the Nationals should be seeking to aggressively sign these players to long-term extensions that buy out their first few years of free agency, the way that the Braves and White Sox have done for years now. Once they materialize into consistent superstars it is too late.

[Slateman]

So .... are we in year 2 of the rebuild ... or did that start with trading Soto

[Five Banners]

Let's remember the goal here. This team is in a rebuild, rebuilds take 4-5 years. Realistically this team will not be good until the 2024 season at the earliest and perhaps not until the 2025 season. Everything the Nationals should do should be with the goal of making the 2024-2025+ Nationals as good as possible.

So what are realistic goals for the 2023 Nationals? To loose 100 games and earn the team a top 5 draft pick that can be used to draft a future superstar who will come to the majors in 2024 or 2025.

Does anyone recall what the restrictions were on teams drafting in the higher part of the draft in multiple years, and when that kicks in?

Within all of that should be willingness to pay over slot and grab some sliders in the draft that way, as well as kicking the tires on the international market.

[Natsinpwc]

Benitendi is basically post-injury Adam Eaton. Does anyone want to give that 80-110 million dollars? Cus I don't

Two years $30’million. He’s not going to get what you say because he has been hurt.  Didn’t you also say Schwarber was a bad signing?

Edit. My bad. Thought you were talking about Conforto.

[Natsinpwc]

I've been following Conforto off and on. After all, I live in NYC now. However, Boras represents Conforto. Odd that no one picked him up after the draft, but maybe Boras is asking for too much. And, according to SI, Conforto hurt his shoulder practicing defense back in the Spring.

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/ex-mets-outfielder-michael-conforto-not-close-to-signing-with-a-team#:~:text=729%20OPS%20and%2014%20homers,wraps%20up%20on%20July%2019.

Yes I believe he had surgery. It would be a high risk kind of move but someone still might sign him these last six weeks.  And we could see what he has. Seems better to
Me than giving more money and years to someone like Benetensi when we are not contending yet. 

https://www.soxon35th.com/taking-a-chance-on-michael-conforto-is-the-right-move-for-the-sox/

[Natsinpwc]

You can’t let the team totally rank again next year as you will drive away even more fans.  New owners have to show something other than prospects.

Team has been terrible since 2020.  So next year will be the fourth of ineptitude. Casual
Fans don’t care when you technically started a rebuild.

[Slateman]

Two years $30’million. He’s not going to get what you say because he has been hurt.  Didn’t you also say Schwarber was a bad signing?

Edit. My bad. Thought you were talking about Conforto.

Naw Beni is getting a long deal. The only reason to sign him is he's 28. But Hassell should develop into a better version of him.

You can’t let the team totally rank again next year as you will drive away even more fans.  New owners have to show something other than prospects.

Team has been terrible since 2020.  So next year will be the fourth of ineptitude. Casual
Fans don’t care when you technically started a rebuild.

Fans will come with wins. Wins are a couple years away.

[imref]

You can’t let the team totally rank again next year as you will drive away even more fans.  New owners have to show something other than prospects.

Team has been terrible since 2020.  So next year will be the fourth of ineptitude. Casual
Fans don’t care when you technically started a rebuild.

The Soto trade arguably accelerated our rebuild by a year or so. Abrams looks like he will be exciting. If Gore is healthy next year you are starting to see the pieces of the new core coming into place with Gore, Gray, Cavalli, Ruiz, Garcia, and Abrams all arriving and several others not that far away.  I still think 2025 is the year we are in positioned to use the FA market to fill in some holes and make a run(boy it sure would be nice to bring Soto back), but I expect to see at least some improvement in 2024 simply because our rotation should be much improved. I think we're in a much better position now than we were with Soto and nothing around him or on the way.

[Natsinpwc]

Naw Beni is getting a long deal. The only reason to sign him is he's 28. But Hassell should develop into a better version of him.Fans will come with wins. Wins are a couple years away.

Attendance lags a couple years behind wins.  If the team is not competitive until 2028 the fans will be back in 2030.

[Slateman]

Attendance lags a couple years behind wins.  If the team is not competitive until 2028 the fans will be back in 2030.

Disagree. Particularly in DC where everyone loves to jump on a bandwagon.

Team averaged 24k fans in 2011. Jumped to over 30k in 2012.

Now you have a whole bunch of fans that remember a WS. Soon as this team isnt dogcrap, they will all come rushing back, pretending that they were there all along.

[Slateman]

Nats need to get a starting pitcher. Like an actual front of the rotation guy.

There is no chance Gore, Cavalli, and Gray all reach what we hope is their potential. Get one guy that can be the guy and let the others develop around him. deGrom, Rodon, Castillo,  Flaherty .... someone. Sign him or trade for him.

[Natsinpwc]

Disagree. Particularly in DC where everyone loves to jump on a bandwagon.

Team averaged 24k fans in 2011. Jumped to over 30k in 2012.

Now you have a whole bunch of fans that remember a WS. Soon as this team isnt dogcrap, they will all come rushing back, pretending that they were there all along.

Well in 2012 they won the division and led it most of the year. No Strasburg or Harper or Werth. And the shine has worn off the new franchise. People will be afraid to root for the young players as they get better lest they new owners sell them all off. Once bitten twice shy.

[Natsinpwc]

Nats need to get a starting pitcher. Like an actual front of the rotation guy.

There is no chance Gore, Cavalli, and Gray all reach what we hope is their potential. Get one guy that can be the guy and let the others develop around him. deGrom, Rodon, Castillo,  Flaherty .... someone. Sign him or trade for him.

The priority should be to spend $35 million a year on a pitcher who will be hurt all the time to have someone to keep Strasburg company.

[UMDNats]

Disagree. Particularly in DC where everyone loves to jump on a bandwagon.

Team averaged 24k fans in 2011. Jumped to over 30k in 2012.

Now you have a whole bunch of fans that remember a WS. Soon as this team isnt dogcrap, they will all come rushing back, pretending that they were there all along.

it makes me laugh that the 2019 team had lower average attendance (by 3,000 a game!) than the 2012 team.

[imref]

In 2011 the area around the ballpark wasn't a destination, and there weren't thousands of 20-30-40 somethings living within a block or three of the stadium. Back then, the fanbase was largely people coming in from the Virginia suburbs. I don't think it's that way as much anymore. The stadium and the area around it is a destination for those living in DC and I think attendance will be fine. It's in a prime spot, unlike say Miami.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Im saying the Nats are basically a team of last resort for Conforto. We're either giving him way more money than anyone else, or he knows he has nothing left and wants one last payday.

there's a definite 3rd possibility - pillow contract.  Everyone offers to lock him in for multiple years at an AAV below what he thinks he's worth, so he takes a 1 year deal at a reasonable amount to rebuild his value. 

[zimm_da_kid]

Nats need to get a starting pitcher. Like an actual front of the rotation guy.

There is no chance Gore, Cavalli, and Gray all reach what we hope is their potential. Get one guy that can be the guy and let the others develop around him. deGrom, Rodon, Castillo,  Flaherty .... someone. Sign him or trade for him.

Vaquero and Cruz will end up being trade bait for that guy.  Once wood, hassell, green, Abrams, Garcia are established

[Smithian]

So .... are we in year 2 of the rebuild ... or did that start with trading Soto

Last season, we were promised it was a "retool" and ideas like "salary relief" made some sense.

This year, they're full rebuild.

Get it right!

[Five Banners]

it makes me laugh that the 2019 team had lower average attendance (by 3,000 a game!) than the 2012 team.

That was the year of the Metro shut down in Virginia, taking away the habit for what had been one of the most reliable ways to get there. Also throw in the headache that it was just commuting and getting home, and the desire not to add up a ballpark trip on top of that.

That was also the year that a lot of the retail opened up directly adjacent to the ball park in the street got narrowed, including when they would actually use one lane of First Street for charter buses, which caused its own issues. (And who knows how many season tickets lapsed after Bryce took a hike amidst sentiments that the window had then closed.)

[welch]

If I buy a ticket, I want a 50-50 champ the Nats will win. That mean above 70 wins in a season -- not a sure-thing playoffs season. This year's team is rattling along at about 1 win out of every three games...or worse.

Wait'll next year and hope.