Premature in season speculation about next year's roster

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If there were one spot to spend a little on this offseason it would be on a 3rd baseman. More than left field, maybe even more than an innings eater. Espino and Fedde have that  covered.

[imref]

If there were one spot to spend a little on this offseason it would be on a 3rd baseman. More than left field, maybe even more than an innings eater. Espino and Fedde have that  covered.

Plan for Aledmys Díaz

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diazal02.shtml

[Elvir Ovcina]

Plan for Aledmys Díaz

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diazal02.shtml

Carpenter would wet himself. 

[imref]

Here's the list of potential 3B FAs next year according to Spotrac

Name/Position/Age/R-L/Current Team/2022 Salary

Nolan Arenado   3B   31.2   R   R   STL   $35,000,000 (Player option)
Justin Turner   3B   37.7   R   R   LAD   $16,000,000 (Team option)
Evan Longoria   3B   36.8   R   R   SF   $13,000,000 (Team option)
Joe Wendle   3B   32.2   L   R   MIA   $6,300,000 (Team option)
Matt Carpenter   3B   36.7   L   R   NYY   $2,000,000   -
Jace Peterson   3B   32.2   L   R   MIL   $1,825,000   -
Charlie Culberson   3B   33.3   R   R   TEX   $1,750,000   -
Matt Duffy   3B   31.5   R   R   LAA   $1,500,000   -
Maikel Franco   3B   29.9   R   R   WSH   $1,250,000   -
Marwin Gonzalez   3B   33.4   S   R   NYY   $1,150,000   -
Tim Beckham   3B   32.5   R   R   MIN   $1,000,000   -
Brandon Drury   3B   29.9   R   R   SD   $900,000   -
Cheslor Cuthbert   3B   29.7   R   R   NYM   -   -
Ty Kelly   3B   34.0   S   R   LAD   -   -
Rob Segedin   3B   33.8   R   R   LAD

Seems it would make sense to add Drury given all the other guys we brought in from San Diego?

[Elvir Ovcina]

Here's the list of potential 3B FAs next year according to Spotrac

Name/Position/Age/R-L/Current Team/2022 Salary

Nolan Arenado   3B   31.2   R   R   STL   $35,000,000 (Player option)
Justin Turner   3B   37.7   R   R   LAD   $16,000,000 (Team option)
Evan Longoria   3B   36.8   R   R   SF   $13,000,000 (Team option)
Joe Wendle   3B   32.2   L   R   MIA   $6,300,000 (Team option)
Matt Carpenter   3B   36.7   L   R   NYY   $2,000,000   -
Jace Peterson   3B   32.2   L   R   MIL   $1,825,000   -
Charlie Culberson   3B   33.3   R   R   TEX   $1,750,000   -
Matt Duffy   3B   31.5   R   R   LAA   $1,500,000   -
Maikel Franco   3B   29.9   R   R   WSH   $1,250,000   -
Marwin Gonzalez   3B   33.4   S   R   NYY   $1,150,000   -
Tim Beckham   3B   32.5   R   R   MIN   $1,000,000   -
Brandon Drury   3B   29.9   R   R   SD   $900,000   -
Cheslor Cuthbert   3B   29.7   R   R   NYM   -   -
Ty Kelly   3B   34.0   S   R   LAD   -   -
Rob Segedin   3B   33.8   R   R   LAD

Seems it would make sense to add Drury given all the other guys we brought in from San Diego?

Drury's not likely to sign with another horrible team - as he did with Cincinnati - unless he gets paid a lot more than he's worth.  The whole point of him doing that was to finally get at bats to get himself a bigger contract somewhere better. 

This team is back in the situation of having to massively overpay FAs to get them to come.

[Natsinpwc]

Drury's not likely to sign with another horrible team - as he did with Cincinnati - unless he gets paid a lot more than he's worth.  The whole point of him doing that was to finally get at bats to get himself a bigger contract somewhere better. 

This team is back in the situation of having to massively overpay FAs to get them to come.

Ultimately that’s the problem with tanking.  It will be years before any top free agents want anything to do with the Nats.

[Slateman]

Free agents always go to the highest bidder. Building a decent team simply gets you invited to the budding house.

[imref]

Ultimately that’s the problem with tanking.  It will be years before any top free agents want anything to do with the Nats.

2024 or 25

[Natsinpwc]

2024 or 25

That's very optimistic.  As you noted Abrams and Ruiz and Garcia are the core of the lineup.  Gray and Cavalli the starters.  No one else is really ready until 2024 I think.  Those dates in the MLB prospects list seem very optimistic--best case scenarios. Hassell is still in A ball.  Then you need a year or two for those guys to play together.  In the mean time they need some good lower cost free agent signings.  This year was a bust with Hernandez, Franco and Cruz.  And no pitchers. 

[Slateman]

That's very optimistic.  As you noted Abrams and Ruiz and Garcia are the core of the lineup.  Gray and Cavalli the starters.  No one else is really ready until 2024 I think.  Those dates in the MLB prospects list seem very optimistic--best case scenarios. Hassell is still in A ball.  Then you need a year or two for those guys to play together.  In the mean time they need some good lower cost free agent signings.  This year was a bust with Hernandez, Franco and Cruz.  And no pitchers. 

You forgot about Gore.

If this team isnt noticeably better by 2024, then we will basically become the pirates

[Natsinpwc]

You forgot about Gore.

If this team isnt noticeably better by 2024, then we will basically become the pirates

I would say 2025. Not hard to be noticeably better than a team that is historically bad. They need to find a veteran starter or two that can eat innings. That’s why I said before someone like Kyle Gibson. Probably buying a bit high on him but maybe two years total $20 million. Even if his ERA goes to 5 he will basically give you 5/6 innings. Much better than the ghost of Anibal Sanchez or the other options the team tried this year. And need a bigger bat for DH and /or LF.  Hit on Schwarber last year and failed on Cruz this year. If they don’t at least try and improve next year to where the team has an outside shot at .500 then the attendance will just plummet and that will carry into 2024.

So somewhat better 2023 and 2024 and maybe start to become a future contender in 2025.

[imref]

Going into 2023, Abrams, Gore, Garcia, Ruiz, and Cavalli are all here. Maybe Cole Henry as well. In 2024, in a best case scenario, Hassell arrives. In 2025, Carrillo, House, Wood, Rutledge, and maybe Green all arrive. That doesn't include any of the Dominican guys who could be here as early at 2025 but more like 2026.  Yes, tons of questions and no guarantee these guys all progress or stay healthy.

 

[Slateman]

I would say 2025. Not hard to be noticeably better than a team that is historically bad. They need to find a veteran starter or two that can eat innings. That’s why I said before someone like Kyle Gibson. Probably buying a bit high on him but maybe two years total $20 million. Even if his ERA goes to 5 he will basically give you 5/6 innings. Much better than the ghost of Anibal Sanchez or the other options the team tried this year. And need a bigger bat for DH and /or LF.  Hit on Schwarber last year and failed on Cruz this year. If they don’t at least try and improve next year to where the team has an outside shot at .500 then the attendance will just plummet and that will carry into 2024.

So somewhat better 2023 and 2024 and maybe start to become a future contender in 2025.

By 2023, we're going to know if Gray, Cavalli, and Gore are a competitve rotation or not. Nothing else really matters because there is no way new ownership is going to sink the amount of money into pitching we would need if they arent.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

At some point, I'm going to break things up and start a speculating about 2023 thread, but as I see it, I rough out the line up as the following, with long term pieces in bold:

C - Ruiz, Adams / Pineda
1B - Voit / Meneses
2d - Garcia
SS- Abrams
3d - free agent ???
LF - free agent / Thomas/ Palacios/ Yadi ???
CF - ??? / Thomas / Robles*
RF - Meneses / Palacios
DH - Yadi / Voit / Meneses

Rotation - Gray / Gore / Cavalli / Fedde / Espino (or FA)
Pen - Finnegan / Edwards / Harvey/ Arano ...

Robles will be an interesting call.  He's going into his second year of arbitration coming off of earning $1.65 million.  As bad as he is, he is due a bump up, perhaps to $2 million.  I wonder if they cut him like they did with Taylor when he started getting too expensive. If he is due $2.5 millioin or more, then I don't think there's much of a question.

[Slateman]

I would assume Kieboom is healthy and gets the thirs base job by default.

If Cavalli doesnt get a call up before the end of the season, I dont see any way he makes the rotation out of ST next year. Pretty obvious they're manipulating service time.

[Smithian]

You forgot about Gore.

If this team isnt noticeably better by 2024, then we will basically become the pirates

I am fine with next year being a flaming disaster. But 2024, .500 has to be in the cards.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I would assume Kieboom is healthy and gets the thirs base job by default.

If Cavalli doesnt get a call up before the end of the season, I dont see any way he makes the rotation out of ST next year. Pretty obvious they're manipulating service time.

If you are right about Cavalli, then Espino is guaranteed to start the season in the rotation. I'd like to see an innings eater signed, along with 3rd baseman and perhaps one or two outfielders, depending on Robles. Get me a 2 fWAR 3rd baseman on a 2 year contract to play opposite Voit. 

I expect Carrillo to be up next year, perhaps Cronin will be given a shot, and Henry in some roll depending on health.

[imref]

At some point, I'm going to break things up and start a speculating about 2023 thread, but as I see it, I rough out the line up as the following, with long term pieces in bold:

C - Ruiz, Adams / Pineda
1B - Voit / Meneses
2d - Garcia
SS- Abrams
3d - free agent ???
LF - free agent / Thomas/ Palacios/ Yadi ???
CF - ??? / Thomas / Robles*
RF - Meneses / Palacios
DH - Yadi / Voit / Meneses

Rotation - Gray / Gore / Cavalli / Fedde / Espino (or FA)
Pen - Finnegan / Edwards / Harvey ...

Robles will be an interesting call.  He's going into his second year of arbitration coming off of earning $1.65 million.  As bad as he is, he is due a bump up, perhaps to $2 million.  I wonder if they cut him like they did with Taylor when he started getting too expensive. If he is due $2.5 millioin or more, then I don't think there's much of a question.

Kieboom is still a remote possibility at 3rd, he's only 24 and will be 25 at the start of next year's camp where I assume he'll be given every chance to win the 3B job once and for all.

[Natsinpwc]

Kieboom is still a remote possibility at 3rd, he's only 24 and will be 25 at the start of next year's camp where I assume he'll be given every chance to win the 3B job once and for all.

Agree. Maybe he will surprise us. Probably not.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Kieboom is still a remote possibility at 3rd, he's only 24 and will be 25 at the start of next year's camp where I assume he'll be given every chance to win the 3B job once and for all.

Oh, sure, depending on his health, but if that position is going to be House's in 2026, I think a viable strategy would be to bring in a guy you have more confidence in.  You can always DH the signee.  Kieboom maybe could be in the mix for 2d as well, or Garcia in left if you really, really like his bat but hate his glove.

Oh, not mentioned is Corbin, Strasburg, Ross, or Rainey.  I'm assuming Rainey starts the year on the 60 day IL recovering.  I don't count on anything out of Strasburg or Ross.  As for Corbin, I'd try to make the bullpen move work. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

At least one, maybe more Rule 5 pick should land somewhere.  2020's lost minor league season put a weird crimp into things, and there are now a lot of guys in AA particularly who are fringy for 40-mans but would be better than some of the guys on the Nats' MLB roster right now.  Mostly position players - which makes this a harder exercise - but they are there.   This team should also be active in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.

Kieboom is still a remote possibility at 3rd, he's only 24 and will be 25 at the start of next year's camp where I assume he'll be given every chance to win the 3B job once and for all.

He has to get a shot.  He was brought up way too early, but he's had well under a season of at-bats.  This year and next year's Nationals are perfect opportunities for a guy like that.

[Smithian]

At some point, I'm going to break things up and start a speculating about 2023 thread, but as I see it, I rough out the line up as the following, with long term pieces in bold:

C - Ruiz, Adams / Pineda
1B - Voit / Meneses
2d - Garcia
SS- Abrams
3d - free agent ???
LF - free agent / Thomas/ Palacios/ Yadi ???
CF - ??? / Thomas / Robles*
RF - Meneses / Palacios
DH - Yadi / Voit / Meneses

Rotation - Gray / Gore / Cavalli / Fedde / Espino (or FA)
Pen - Finnegan / Edwards / Harvey ...

Robles will be an interesting call.  He's going into his second year of arbitration coming off of earning $1.65 million.  As bad as he is, he is due a bump up, perhaps to $2 million.  I wonder if they cut him like they did with Taylor when he started getting too expensive. If he is due $2.5 millioin or more, then I don't think there's much of a question.

CJ Abrams, SS
Luis Garcia, 2B
$12-15 mil AAV FA, RF
Luke Voit, DH
Meneses/Placeholder, 1B
Yadiel Hernandez, LF
Keibert Ruiz, C
Carter Kieboom, 3B
Victor Robles, CF

Bench:
Meneses / Placeholder FA 1B
Thomas
Adams/Barrera
Kieboom Insurance FA 3B
Glove-first Backup FA 2B/SS

They won't cut Robles or they would have trade him this deadline for a bag of peanuts. FAs may also be a trade from a salary dump team. Think Josh Bell Pirates trade. I wanted Adams to get a run at 1B up here before end of the season, but Meneses got his shot and took control.

I'd be okay with that opening day lineup. There is no one in the upper minors who is being held back. See if Kieboom has anything. Maybe Hernandez, Voit, or Menseses plays well and gets flipped. Past that, just hope someone like Jake Alu or Darren Baker force their way up into a role and suck it up while they spend another year trying to fix the pitching and getting one year closer to hopefully one or two of the low minors bats breaking through.

[Smithian]

Oh, sure, depending on his health, but if that position is going to be House's in 2026, I think a viable strategy would be to bring in a guy you have more confidence in.  You can always DH the signee.  Kieboom maybe could be in the mix for 2d as well, or Garcia in left if you really, really like his bat but hate his glove.

Oh, not mentioned is Corbin, Strasburg, Ross, or Rainey.  I'm assuming Rainey starts the year on the 60 day IL recovering.  I don't count on anything out of Strasburg or Ross.  As for Corbin, I'd try to make the bullpen move work. 

I don't think you can build a roster spot around a guy who has never hit in AA. I don't even think Robert Hassell, the high floor prospect of the bench, should be considered until he hits in Harrisburg.

The DH makes roster construction easier for the NL. It's awful for baseball, they can still take advantage of it.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I don't think you can build a roster spot around a guy who has never hit in AA. I don't even think Robert Hassell, the high floor prospect of the bench, should be considered until he hits in Harrisburg.

The DH makes roster construction easier for the NL. It's awful for baseball, they can still take advantage of it.

This x 2, all of it.  Prospects do not exist except as theories until they have shown they can do it in AA.

[Slateman]

If you are right about Cavalli, then Espino is guaranteed to start the season in the rotation. I'd like to see an innings eater signed, along with 3rd baseman and perhaps one or two outfielders, depending on Robles. Get me a 2 fWAR 3rd baseman on a 2 year contract to play opposite Voit. 

I expect Carrillo to be up next year, perhaps Cronin will be given a shot, and Henry in some roll depending on health.

Espino ... Adon .... Shoulder Blade. One of them.

I don't think you can build a roster spot around a guy who has never hit in AA. I don't even think Robert Hassell, the high floor prospect of the bench, should be considered until he hits in Harrisburg.

The DH makes roster construction easier for the NL. It's awful for baseball, they can still take advantage of it.

I agree. House, Green, Vaquero, Hassell, Wood ...  you cant count on these guys in any roster construction.