Reds

[Steve Rogers]

The Reds may actually be worse than the Nationals. They look horrid.

[welch]

What are the rules about which team gets first overall pick next season? Others have written that there is some sort of lottery, but how will it work?

Will the Reds steal Washington's rightful first pick?

[Mattionals]

What are the rules about which team gets first overall pick next season? Others have written that there is some sort of lottery, but how will it work?

Will the Reds steal Washington's rightful first pick?

From MLB:


Rule 4 Draft[size=1.52523rem]Definition[/size]The Rule 4 Draft is the official term for the First-Year Player Draft, an amateur draft held annually. Players must be a resident of the United States (U.S. territories, such as Puerto Rico, apply) or Canada to be eligible for the draft. Players who have graduated high school but not attended college are eligible for the draft, as are those who have completed at least one year of junior college. Players attending four-year colleges are eligible to be drafted upon completing their junior year or turning 21 years old.Per the 2022-2026 collective bargaining agreement, the Rule 4 Draft will conclude after 20 rounds and may be held each year between June 1 and July 20.Each pick in the first 10 rounds of the Draft has an assigned value, and the total for each of a club's selections equals what it can spend on signing bonuses for players selected in those rounds without incurring a penalty.If a player selected in the first 10 rounds doesn't sign, his pick's value is subtracted from his club's pool. If a team exceeds its allotment, it faces a penalty.A team that outspends its pool by 0-5 percent pays a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than 5 and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.Draft lotteryA Draft lottery was established per the 2022-26 CBA to determine the first six picks. Previously, picks were based on the previous season's records -- the team with the worst record received the first overall pick, followed by the team with the second-worst record, and so on.Lottery odds are based on the reverse order of winning percentage, with the bottom three clubs each at 16.5%. The 18 non-postseason clubs are eligible, though revenue sharing payees are ineligible to receive lottery selections in three consecutive years, while non-payees are ineligible to receive lottery selections in consecutive years.Postseason teams pick after non-postseason teams in the order of their postseason finish (for example, clubs losing in the Wild Card Round pick before clubs losing the Division Series); within each group, teams are sorted by revenue sharing status, then by reverse order of winning percentage.[/font]

[welch]

There is this: https://www.athleticsnation.com/2022/6/23/23180876/mlb-draft-lottery-2023-oakland-as-tanking

Does this mean that all non-playoff teams have a chance at the lottery? That the Nats could wind up picking tenth?

[welch]

and this: https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

[DPMOmaha]

All non-playoff teams are eligible for the draft lottery. The lottery will select the first six picks. The six teams with the worst records will have weighted odds with the three worst teams having the highest likelihood of getting the #1 spot (16.5%). The rest of the teams have weighted odds in descending order. After the first six picks are chosen, the draft will fill out with the rest of the teams according to worst record to best as has been done traditionally.

I took my explanation from Baseball America.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/

There is this: https://www.athleticsnation.com/2022/6/23/23180876/mlb-draft-lottery-2023-oakland-as-tanking

Does this mean that all non-playoff teams have a chance at the lottery? That the Nats could wind up picking tenth?

The way I understand it, if the Nats finish with the worst record, the worst they could pick is 7th.

[welch]

And this, from Baseball America:

DRAFT ORDER

The first six picks in each year’s draft will be awarded via lottery beginning in 2023. The 18 teams that do not qualify for the postseason will be eligible for the lottery, with odds assigned in reverse order of winning percentage.

The odds for receiving the No. 1 selection are as follows:

Worst record: 16.5%

Second-worst record: 16.5%

Third-worst record: 16.5%

Fourth: 13.25%

Fifth: 10%

Sixth: 7.5%

Seventh: 5.5%

Eighth: 3.9%

Ninth: 2.7%

10th: 1.8%

11th: 1.4%

12th: 1.1%

13th: 0.90%

14th: 0.76%

15th: 0.62%

16th: 0.48%

17th: 0.36%

18th: 0.23%

Revenue sharing recipients may not receive a lottery (i.e. top six) pick more than two years in a row. Teams that pay revenue sharing may not receive a lottery pick (i.e. top six) more than one year in a row.

Non-playoff teams who do not receive a lottery selection will pick in reverse order of winning percentage the previous season.

Playoff teams will select in order of postseason finish (i.e. Wild Card Round losers will pick before Division Series losers, etc.).

[Elvir Ovcina]

The Reds may actually be worse than the Nationals. They look horrid.

They're pretty awful, but they're not even last in their own division.  They also traded several of their best players, of course, but remember they started the season 3-22.  Since then they're right around .500. 

Also, the dude who started for them today was literally like their #10 starter not that long ago.  Nobody's pretending he's a major league pitcher, but they already traded Castillo and Mahle and they have three more starters on the IL. 

[Senatorswin]

So the worst they can do is get the 7th pick. Good thing these rules weren't around when Harper and Strasburg were being drafted.

[welch]

The Reds may actually be worse than the Nationals. They look horrid.

Having watch Cincinnati these last three games, they look much better than the Nats.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Having watch Cincinnati these last three games, they look much better than the Nats.

And their four top guys in bWAR are all rookies (3) or second year (1), with a heck of a farm system behind them.