Juan Soto, Padre

[Senatorswin]

he's having the close to the same year as he had here.  Same batting average, same OBP.  Drop off in SLG from .485 to .364.  San Diego isn't a great power park.  You'd have thought that if there were such a thing as protection having Machado and Cronenworth, along with Bell, might have helped some.  IT looks like teams are still walking him, and he's still swinging with a bit of frustration trying to pull. He's even cut back on swinging at out of the strike zone pitches, so you'd think the contact might be harder.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/juan-soto/20123/stats?position=OF

I think the Padres were thinking the Soto they were getting was better than the Soto of 2022 so far. He had started to heat up some with the Nats at the time and I suppose they are hoping for the Soto of previous years. He seems like he's taking a lot of hittable pitches in the strike zone also. I didn't think about the stadium affect. Could this affect his long term deal in two years?

[nfotiu]

.485-.364 is a pretty massive drop off.   Even .485 is a big drop off from where he's been the first few years here.    A .245 batting average with a sub .500 slugging percentage is a pretty average corner outfielder and not a guy you give up all your prospects for.

He's been particularly bad since missing some time with a bad back.   I wonder how much that is affecting him.

[Smithian]

Juan Soto will end up with a great run in San Diego, but I'm enjoying this while I can

[HalfSmokes]

Harper is just a guy that you love when he's on your side and hate when he isn't.   It annoyed me that he went to a bitter rival for marginally more money when we had a good thing going her, but I'm mostly indifferent to him now.

Soto seems like a likeable guy and watching him the first few years here was amazing.   I don't like Boras at all and think his approach is bad for the game, bad for the fans, and has his players convinced to take risks that don't really make sense at an individual level.   I don't see a 440 million offer as a severe undervalue, and should have been something that could have been a starting point for negotiation if Soto wanted to be here.  Rejecting 440 million to hold out for a possible 500 million just doesn't make sense when he's now needing to have a couple spectacular seasons if he hopes to get over 100 million for his next deal.   

I feel a bit bad for hoping for him to fail, but if he turns into a bit of a bust and we dealt him at the right time, then it looks like the Nats made the right call, and could serve as a big warning for current and perspective Boras clients. 

I don't feel bad hoping he fails. I hope all Boras clients fail because that's what it will take to break his business model

[Five Banners]

He's been particularly bad since missing some time with a bad back.   I wonder how much that is affecting him.

Good q. It looked like this season he had a lot of weak outs to the first base side, enough that it seemed to be a pattern. Maybe their training staff will be able to figure something out. Just stay away from the local ringworm treatment purveyors.

[Slateman]

I don't feel bad hoping he fails. I hope all Boras clients fail because that's what it will take to break his business model

How dare an agent get his client the most money possible

[imref]

How dare an agent get his client the most money possible

I wonder what Soto could command now given his performance this season. I imagine it's not what the Nats offered.

[Natsinpwc]

I wonder what Soto could command now given his performance this season. I imagine it's not what the Nats offered.

He’s going to get paid big time once he hits free agency.  You are not considering that the Nats deal was backloaded. He will most likely get a significant signing bonus up front also as Harper did.

[nfotiu]

How dare an agent get his client the most money possible

It strikes me as a bit snaky how he convinces most of his clients to go to free agency no matter what.   The risk reward for each individual client rarely makes sense for the client.   It makes sense for him as he can pool his talent and can afford for one or two of them to not pan out.   So either he is advising them to take foolish risks, or he is somehow guaranteeing money to them to wait for free agency.   If he's doing the latter, it would seem to break the spirit of the CBA, and takes away any leverage for a team to re-sign their players.

[imref]

He’s going to get paid big time once he hits free agency.  You are not considering that the Nats deal was backloaded. He will most likely get a significant signing bonus up front also as Harper did.

That assumes he returns to form.

[Natsinpwc]

That assumes he returns to form.

Not sure how you define form but he is 4.9 bWAR this year so far. So about 6 WAR in an “off-season”. Someone will spend money to see if he can return to prior year Ted like stats based on his age and prior performance. Unless he blows up totally. 

[Slateman]

It strikes me as a bit snaky how he convinces most of his clients to go to free agency no matter what.   The risk reward for each individual client rarely makes sense for the client.   It makes sense for him as he can pool his talent and can afford for one or two of them to not pan out.   So either he is advising them to take foolish risks, or he is somehow guaranteeing money to them to wait for free agency.   If he's doing the latter, it would seem to break the spirit of the CBA, and takes away any leverage for a team to re-sign their players.

Lol, what?

Do you think Boras is some sort of snake oil salesman who doesnt level with his clients? Do you think he's paying them under the table of they dont get a deal?

[HalfSmokes]

Lol, what?

Do you think Boras is some sort of snake oil salesman who doesnt level with his clients? Do you think he's paying them under the table of they dont get a deal?

he convinces them to take the risk. The more high profile clients who lose when they bet on themselves, the better.

[Slateman]

he convinces them to take the risk. The more high profile clients who lose when the bet on themselves, the better.

No, thats bad for baseball. That means ownership groups spending less money.

[nfotiu]

Lol, what?

Do you think Boras is some sort of snake oil salesman who doesnt level with his clients? Do you think he's paying them under the table of they dont get a deal?

Risking 450 million to go for 500 million, with a realistic chance of ending up with less than 100 million just doesn't make sense from a purely financial standpoint.

If every agent did that and every player went to free agency after team control, it would not be great for fans.

[nfotiu]

No, thats bad for baseball. That means ownership groups spending less money.

I don't see 500 million dollar contracts that go til a player is in their mid-late 30s as being good for baseball in any way. 

[Slateman]

Risking 450 million to go for 500 million, with a realistic chance of ending up with less than 100 million just doesn't make sense from a purely financial standpoint.

If every agent did that and every player went to free agency after team control, it would not be great for fans.

Boras is the best for a reason. He delivers.

I don't see 500 million dollar contracts that go til a player is in their mid-late 30s as being good for baseball in any way. 

Owners spending money is good for competiton, which is good for baseball. 500 million dollar contracts bring up other contracts. MLB is making billions. Every team in baseball is flush with cash. Teams can afford it.

[HalfSmokes]

Boras is the best for a reason. He delivers.
Owners spending money is good for competiton, which is good for baseball. 500 million dollar contracts bring up other contracts. MLB is making billions. Every team in baseball is flush with cash. Teams can afford it.

Some owners spending and others knowing there is no reason to bother is terrible for competition. A league where people follow teams not stars that lacks parity is a dying league

[rileyn]

When Bryce did that BS dramatic bow, non-sense in his first game back at Nats Park, he was done for me.  That was such a punk move, but right on brand for him (just like his Phony Phanatic head band).  I don't wish success for him and more/less than any other player.

[Slateman]

Some owners spending and others knowing there is no reason to bother is terrible for competition. A league where people follow teams not stars that lacks parity is a dying league

Lol the only reason MLB lacks parity is becauss owners want to be cheap.

[imref]

Some owners spending and others knowing there is no reason to bother is terrible for competition. A league where people follow teams not stars that lacks parity is a dying league

Success comes from making new stars IMHO.

[HalfSmokes]

Success comes from making new stars IMHO.

Who is the last baseball player who has actually a star? Pujols?

[imref]

Who is the last baseball player who has actually a star? Pujols?

Judge? Harper?

[HalfSmokes]

Judge? Harper?

How far down the list of NBA or NFL stars do you have to go until you hit Judge?

[imref]

How far down the list of NBA or NFL stars do you have to go until you hit Judge?

i'm talking about baseball stars that draw fans into the park, not national media stars. I agree with your earlier point about spending and competition, i'm just saying that the truly successful teams are ones that grow their own stars.