Sunshine Squad 2022 - It Can Only Get Better (& it has)

[imref]

This. The man turned Matt Capps into Wilson Ramos. He turned Ryan Langerhans into Michael Morse. It's kinda amazing how many of these moves he not only got right, but totally nailed. These smaller moves are less obvious, and they're the difference between being a good team and being a great team.

And more recently, picking up Schwarber and Bell off the scrap heap. Don't look now but while Schwarber is hitting homers in Philly,  his average has reverted back to his last year with the Cubs. He's the new Dave Kingman.

[imref]

Putting this out there now: 2025 World Series: Nationals vs Orioles

[imref]

just read Dan Szymborski's fan graphs chat.

As bad as things are, at least we're not the Rockies or Royals (or the A's), so there's that. He thinks there's potential that the Padres blow things up at the end of 2024

[Kevrock]

It can get worse. Padres lose in the Wild Card round and Preller gets fired. New GM flips Soto at the Winter Meetings to the World Champion Mets for a prospect package better than we got and Cohen trolls the Nats on Twitter. Mets repeat. Scherzer and Soto go into the Hall with Mets hats.

[imref]

It can get worse. Padres lose in the Wild Card round and Preller gets fired. New GM flips Soto at the Winter Meetings to the World Champion Mets and Cohen trolls the Nats on Twitter. Mets repeat. Scherzer and Soto go into the Hall with Mets hats.

Mods, can we remove this post and make sure it never sees the light of day again.

[HalfSmokes]

Rendon was a risky pick. Scherzer was a big get that turned out better than we could have dreamed. Turner was a steal. Murphy was a great signing. Jayson Werth was a good risk to take.

He constantly fond guys like Howie Kendrick, Stephen Drew, Kurt Suzuki, Matt Adams, Doug Fister, and Chad Tracy who came in and filled roles.

It isn't like he sat on his ass and let Harper and Strasburg carry the show.

Rendon fell because of injury concerns but he was the consensus best hitter in the draft. He was picked right were most of the mocks had him going.

[HalfSmokes]

And more recently, picking up Schwarber and Bell off the scrap heap. Don't look now but while Schwarber is hitting homers in Philly,  his average has reverted back to his last year with the Cubs. He's the new Dave Kingman.

Cool.  He picks up pieces here and there, but can't develop players internally so immediately crash from World Series to rebuilding

[Smithian]

It can get worse. Padres lose in the Wild Card round and Preller gets fired. New GM flips Soto at the Winter Meetings to the World Champion Mets for a prospect package better than we got and Cohen trolls the Nats on Twitter. Mets repeat. Scherzer and Soto go into the Hall with Mets hats.

Take that to a Legion of Doom thread 

[Smithian]

Cool.  He picks up pieces here and there, but can't develop players internally so immediately crash from World Series to rebuilding

In Game 7 of the World Series, Zimmerman, Rendon, Soto, Robles, and Turner all made major league debuts with the Nationals after coming up through the system. Yan Gomes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Hudson, and Adam Eaton were all acquired through prospect trades. Only Corbin, Dozier, and Scherzer were pure FAs. In Game 6, Strasburg was a Nats draft pick and Doolittle was acquired via trade.

Rizzo owns the last couple years and everything going to hell. You can't blame the Farm System in 2022 on trades in the late 2010's. It was a valid excuse in 2020 and somewhat 2021, but not now. The talent dried up and prospects still around didn't develop. Something went wrong over the last couple years and whatever changes were made last offseason were too late. I have dozens/hundreds of posts venting about talent acquisition and development went to crap past couple years, but from 2009 until 2019, Rizzo oversaw a system that graduated homegrown starters and talent acquired from moving prospects.

As much as he gets blame for the last couple years, he also gets credit for taking over a team on its way to back-to-back 100 loss seasons and turning it into an annual playoff contender and World Series champion.

[PowerBoater69]

Not really formatted into a table, but based on the https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals/ list of players in the top ten of our farm system who are expected to be in the MLB by the end of next year we have a nice looking core. With Soto, Cruz, Bell, Harris, CHernandez, Ross, Sanchez, Cishek, Adrianza, Doolittle, Franco, and Escobar all coming off the payroll for next year, that is $60 million being freed up. Assuming the new owner will be nice and bump up payroll by say $20-40 million, that would allow Rizzo to spend $70-90 million on free agents. We need good fortune with injuries, prospects to live up to expectations, and Rizzo to make wise decisions. But there is a path to .500 in 2023.

Luis Garcia   22   Now   2B
Keibert Ruiz   23   Now   C
Josiah Gray   24   Now   SP
Victor Robles   25   Now   OF
Lane Thomas   26   Now   SP
Joan Adon   23   Now   SP
Luke Voit   31   Now   1B
Carter Keiboom   24   Now   3B
MacKenzie Gore   23   Now   SP
CJ Abrams   21   Now   SS/2B
Cade Cavalli   23   2022   SP
Gerado Carrillo   23   2022   SP
Robert Hassell III   20   2023   OF
Cole Henry   23   2023   SP
Jackson Rutledge   23   2023   SP

[Elvir Ovcina]

And more recently, picking up Schwarber and Bell off the scrap heap. Don't look now but while Schwarber is hitting homers in Philly,  his average has reverted back to his last year with the Cubs. He's the new Dave Kingman.

Bell wasn't really scrap heap.  The trade there will likely look pretty even in time, given that Crowe is a useful player as a reliever and has 4 more years of team control. If he finishes this year on the same track he's on and sustains it, then you're looking at pretty much a wash in WAR terms. It's not a heist like the Ramos and Morse trades were.

The sunshine case is that Rizzo's trades are better than his drafting, which doesn't say much but does bode well for this one.  Problem is, Preller's drafting isn't much better.

[imref]

Not really formatted into a table, but based on the https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals/ list of players in the top ten of our farm system who are expected to be in the MLB by the end of next year we have a nice looking core. With Soto, Cruz, Bell, Harris, CHernandez, Ross, Sanchez, Cishek, Adrianza, Doolittle, Franco, and Escobar all coming off the payroll for next year, that is $60 million being freed up. Assuming the new owner will be nice and bump up payroll by say $20-40 million, that would allow Rizzo to spend $70-90 million on free agents. We need good fortune with injuries, prospects to live up to expectations, and Rizzo to make wise decisions. But there is a path to .500 in 2023.

Luis Garcia   22   Now   2B
Keibert Ruiz   23   Now   C
Josiah Gray   24   Now   SP
Victor Robles   25   Now   OF
Lane Thomas   26   Now   SP
Joan Adon   23   Now   SP
Luke Voit   31   Now   1B
Carter Keiboom   24   Now   3B
MacKenzie Gore   23   Now   SP
CJ Abrams   21   Now   SS/2B
Cade Cavalli   23   2022   SP
Gerado Carrillo   23   2022   SP
Robert Hassell III   20   2023   OF
Cole Henry   23   2023   SP
Jackson Rutledge   23   2023   SP

so many massive question marks in that list. Other than Voit, Ruiz and Garica, none have shown they can hit at the major league level

[PowerBoater69]

so many massive question marks in that list. Other than Voit, Ruiz and Garica, none have shown they can hit at the major league level

Don't need to hit 100%, the point is there is a decent size group all 20-23 either here or coming up in the near future and a lot of money being freed up. If the new owner really wants to spend there will be well over $100 million in cap space.

[nfotiu]

My interest in the Nats went up about 50% after the trade vs before it.   I have a little hope they are building something now, instead of just dreading another setback when Soto goes.

[Elvir Ovcina]

My interest in the Nats went up about 50% after the trade vs before it.   I have a little hope they are building something now, instead of just dreading another setback when Soto goes.

I also like watching minor league baseball, but I'd rather pay $8 to sit on the aisle 4 rows from the on deck-circle at the team down the street than line Marky Mark's pockets any further.

[Smithian]

Not really formatted into a table, but based on the https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals/ list of players in the top ten of our farm system who are expected to be in the MLB by the end of next year we have a nice looking core. With Soto, Cruz, Bell, Harris, CHernandez, Ross, Sanchez, Cishek, Adrianza, Doolittle, Franco, and Escobar all coming off the payroll for next year, that is $60 million being freed up. Assuming the new owner will be nice and bump up payroll by say $20-40 million, that would allow Rizzo to spend $70-90 million on free agents. We need good fortune with injuries, prospects to live up to expectations, and Rizzo to make wise decisions. But there is a path to .500 in 2023.

Luis Garcia   22   Now   2B
Keibert Ruiz   23   Now   C
Josiah Gray   24   Now   SP
Victor Robles   25   Now   OF
Lane Thomas   26   Now   SP
Joan Adon   23   Now   SP
Luke Voit   31   Now   1B
Carter Keiboom   24   Now   3B
MacKenzie Gore   23   Now   SP
CJ Abrams   21   Now   SS/2B
Cade Cavalli   23   2022   SP
Gerado Carrillo   23   2022   SP
Robert Hassell III   20   2023   OF
Cole Henry   23   2023   SP
Jackson Rutledge   23   2023   SP

I don't really care about winning in 2023. Bring up players as they're ready. Hope for some development from guys like Garcia, Thomas, and Ruiz. Sort of like 2010.

2024 is where I want to see some holes starting to be patched. By the end of 2023, we'll have a much better idea if Hassell, House, Woods and company are going to be players.

I think we're lucky in that our Farm System is still weak in guys who we can call up today and next season. But we have a whole lot of talent who should be able to arrive in 2024 and 205. A lot of talent lined up around the same timetable, so even if a couple fall off, we should be okay.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I don't really care about winning in 2023. Bring up players as they're ready. Hope for some development from guys like Garcia, Thomas, and Ruiz. Sort of like 2010.

2024 is where I want to see some holes starting to be patched. By the end of 2023, we'll have a much better idea if Hassell, House, Woods and company are going to be players.

I think we're lucky in that our Farm System is still weak in guys who we can call up today and next season. But we have a whole lot of talent who should be able to arrive in 2024 and 205. A lot of talent lined up around the same timetable, so even if a couple fall off, we should be okay.

Trading Soto was punting '23 and '24.  No reason to forget that.  They're not going to try to win anything next year, and likely not the year after. 

[PowerBoater69]

I don't really care about winning in 2023. Bring up players as they're ready. Hope for some development from guys like Garcia, Thomas, and Ruiz. Sort of like 2010.

2024 is where I want to see some holes starting to be patched. By the end of 2023, we'll have a much better idea if Hassell, House, Woods and company are going to be players.

I think we're lucky in that our Farm System is still weak in guys who we can call up today and next season. But we have a whole lot of talent who should be able to arrive in 2024 and 205. A lot of talent lined up around the same timetable, so even if a couple fall off, we should be okay.

Ideally for next season we'll have enough free agent pitching signed to pull out of last place, maybe not a wild card, but no longer a doormat. Plus we'll have a larger block of the future core, 10-12 guys instead of 4-6 surrounded by a bunch of NPCs. The Lerners were able to market a losing team around the new ballpark and "baseball is back", the new owners will need to jump start the rebuild if they want to sell tickets.

[PowerBoater69]

Trading Soto was punting '23 and '24.  No reason to forget that.  They're not going to try to win anything next year, and likely not the year after. 

Who is "they"? The owners that traded Soto will hopefully be gone by Christmas. Nine figures in salary cap space can fill a lot of holes.

[HalfSmokes]

In Game 7 of the World Series, Zimmerman, Rendon, Soto, Robles, and Turner all made major league debuts with the Nationals after coming up through the system. Yan Gomes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Hudson, and Adam Eaton were all acquired through prospect trades. Only Corbin, Dozier, and Scherzer were pure FAs. In Game 6, Strasburg was a Nats draft pick and Doolittle was acquired via trade.

Rizzo owns the last couple years and everything going to hell. You can't blame the Farm System in 2022 on trades in the late 2010's. It was a valid excuse in 2020 and somewhat 2021, but not now. The talent dried up and prospects still around didn't develop. Something went wrong over the last couple years and whatever changes were made last offseason were too late. I have dozens/hundreds of posts venting about talent acquisition and development went to crap past couple years, but from 2009 until 2019, Rizzo oversaw a system that graduated homegrown starters and talent acquired from moving prospects.

As much as he gets blame for the last couple years, he also gets credit for taking over a team on its way to back-to-back 100 loss seasons and turning it into an annual playoff contender and World Series champion.

Can you tell me more about all the time the Zimmerman and Rendon and Taylor spent in the system?

[Smithian]

A September lineup that looks like

Victor Robles, CF
Luis Garcia, 2B/3B
Yadiel Hernandez, LF
Luke Voit, DH
Keibert Ruiz, C
Riley Adams, 1B
Lane Thomas, RF
CJ Abrams, SS
Cesar Hernandez, 2B/3B

Is one I wouldn't mind watching. Sans Cesar H, all of them will be on the the team next season and you could see them eventually being at least bench players on a competent team.

Bonus points if Rizzo eats Cesar H money and brings up one of the Jake's or finds a change-of-scenery candidate on waivers who was cut due to 40 man issues.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Who is "they"? The owners that traded Soto will hopefully be gone by Christmas. Nine figures in salary cap space can fill a lot of holes.

As others have noted, there's zero chance incoming ownership wasn't consulted here.  This is the sort of trade that could blow up a purchase if the new owners opposed it.

[Smithian]

Can you tell me more about all the time the Zimmerman and Rendon and Taylor spent in the system?

You can't blame him for players who wash out out while saying he has nothing to do with players who do turn out. Zimmerman pre-dated him, but Turner and Rendon are both guys he acquired.

[PowerBoater69]

As others have noted, there's zero chance incoming ownership wasn't consulted here.  This is the sort of trade that could blow up a purchase if the new owners opposed it.

Incoming ownership isn't monolithic and trading Soto does not mean they will decide to follow the Lerner path of slashing payroll as their first order of business.

[Natsinpwc]

They have first shot at Didi. LOL.