Follow the Prospects: James Wood, OF

[HondoKillebrew]

He started the year at low A and has moved up two levels. So not surprising to see him struggle at Double A.  Seem to be improving which is good.  Start at Harrisburg again next year and see what happens. 

More concerned about Hassell as he has spent much more time at Double A and above. Some folks thought he was close to MLB last year before the injury.

Agree. I haven’t followed Hassell that closely but his situation is concerning.

[Natsinpwc]

3 Ks yesterday. Shut it down and get some rest. See you in the spring.

[IanRubbish]

There's a difference between still developing and a bust, he looks a lot more like the former.  Moreover, he's only 21 next year and a Boras client, no need to rush him up to MLB.  Boras clients don't sign Acuna type deals to buy out their first couple FA years, so nothing wrong with letting him develop more in AA and AAA. 

[DCsOwn]

https://x.com/hbgsenators/status/1702481519795691692?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

Fun night for Harrisburg thus far tonight with the A team working 💯

[DCsOwn]

https://x.com/talknats/status/1702479490146861358?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

Good thing they didn’t shut him down 😂

But seriously, we need to have some patience with him in particular. He’s never been some super polished kid that was expected to fly through a system. What he is though is a collection of phenomenal physical tools with the potential to be a franchise altering player should everything click.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Pinkney, Brown, and Vaquero saying "hey, don't you forget about me" when talking about the top 5 position prospects

[imref]

Wood had a 42% strikeout rate in August, that's down to 36% in September.

September so far (42 ABs):
.333   / .417 / .524, 3 doubles, a triple, a home run, and 3 stolen bases.

Month-by-month at Harrisburg:
June: .267 / .356 / .535   
July: .197 / .305 / .423
August: .233 / .313 / .515

He turns 21 on Sunday

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Wood had a 42% strikeout rate in August, that's down to 36% in September.

September so far (42 ABs):
.333   / .417 / .524, 3 doubles, a triple, a home run, and 3 stolen bases.

Month-by-month at Harrisburg:
June: .267 / .356 / .535   
July: .197 / .305 / .423
August: .233 / .313 / .515

He turns 21 on Sunday

He kind of started to turn things around on 8/8. From 8/8 - 8/31, he was .253 / .330 / .532. K% was still high (34%), but he had 6 HRs and 4 doubles in that SLG, driving a 131 wRC+. To me, it looks like he had a nice start at AA, then he started facing pitchers that could attack his weaknesses in July, then made some adjustments a flourished some starting the second week of August.

From 8/8 to date, he's .281 / .360 / .529, with a 141 wRC+. 

BTW, if you use a K rate based on PAs and not ABs, his K% in September is 31.3%. That's still not good, but it is an improvement from 7/1-8/7, when it was 37.6%.

[imref]

there might be a reason why he's a top 5 prospect after all.

[DCsOwn]

https://x.com/mlbpipeline/status/1703111482777489639?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

70 grade power if you ask me

[imref]

.874 OPS, 26 home runs. Absolute bust.

[DCsOwn]

.874 OPS, 26 home runs. Absolute bust.

I’m certainly willing to give him a bit more time before writing the epitaph 😂

[welch]

Last night says it: 2-for-5. with 3 Ks. Mow hitting .245 in AA.

[imref]

Last night says it: 2-for-5. with 3 Ks. Mow hitting .245 in AA.

and an oppo-boppo today

[welch]

and an oppo-boppo today

2-for-4 with, of course, 2 Ks. Starts in Rochester next year? Does the average mean he is ready to learn AAA pitching? Or do the strikeouts mean he should spend a month or two in Harrisburg?

[Mattionals]

2-for-4 with, of course, 2 Ks. Starts in Rochester next year? Does the average mean he is ready to learn AAA pitching? Or do the strikeouts mean he should spend a month or two in Harrisburg?

I would start him in Harrisburg. See if he can cut back on the K's before promoting him to AAA.

[HondoKillebrew]

I would start him in Harrisburg. See if he can cut back on the K's before promoting him to AAA.

I agree. He needs to have clearly outgrown AA before being moved up. But would love to see that happen quickly. 

[imref]

Happy 21st (yesterday) James Wood!

[DCsOwn]

Law's latest update on Wood:

• James Wood has been with Harrisburg for about two-thirds of the season and is leading the club with 17 homers, so his huge power is still intact but the 20-year-old has had issues with contact, striking out in a third of his plate appearances there. His issues are twofold: his offspeed recognition isn’t advanced enough for Double A and his strike zone is huge because he’s 6-foot-7. The former is the bigger issue right now, which is good news for Wood and the Nats because it’s a lot easier to improve a hitter’s pitch recognition than it is to make him shorter. On Tuesday, he whiffed on three sliders in four at-bats, two in the zone and the third out of the zone for a strikeout, and then struck out later in the game on a fastball that was below his knees. He was the DH that night, so I didn’t get to see any of his stellar defense in center.

https://theathletic.com/4870978/2023/09/18/scouting-boston-red-sox-washington-nationals/?source=emp_shared_article

[DCsOwn]

Eastern League POW James Wood that is

https://x.com/Nats_PlayerDev/status/1703825835642261535?s=20

[DCsOwn]

https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1704332193474998617?s=20

Awesome interview from the preternaturally gifted young OF.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Joshua
2:52   Thinking a bit outside the box, would any of these teams who continuously develop starting pitching accept the following offer from the Nats: James Wood to the Guardians for Gavin Williams, to the Dodgers for Bobby Miller, or to the Marlins for Eury Perez.
Mark P
2:54   Wood-for-Williams is the likeliest of these options.  The Marlins aren't moving Perez and the Dodgers still need enough pitching that they aren't eager to move Miller for an unproven player.

The Guardians, however, could badly use a young bat for their outfield.  Giving up Williams is significant, but since good young pitchers seemingly grow on trees in Cleveland, maybe the Guards might take the risk since they feel they can develop more pitching later

https://live.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-17299.html

Williams had a pretty nice debut, has a ton of talent, but a big injury history. Graduated as a prospect last year. Was a Fangraphs "50" FV, so he'd be 3rd - 6th here. #52 on FG's list. Here's the FG graduation report (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2023-graduates/summary):

TLDR
Williams' injury history was concerning enough to impact his prospect grade, but he's talented enough to make a big league impact in the middle of Cleveland's 2023 rotation.

Full Report
Williams' injury history and the relative violence of his delivery kept him just outside the 50 FV tier on the Cleveland list, even though he had a strong pro debut and spent most of the year at Double-A Akron. He checks the talent and proximity boxes rather emphatically, and when you start lining up the other pitchers toward the back of the Top 100 list, Williams' past and theoretical future injuries are more palatable than lots of other prospects actual injuries, so we've bumped him into this tier as a correction. He dealt with a litany of issues as an amateur, as benign as a fractured finger and as severe as back issues that had some teams drop him from their draft boards. The progress Williams made at ECU amid these issues (some of which date back to high school) was remarkable. He worked in the 89-93 mph range as a high schooler, then exploded in college, hitting 100 mph as a freshman and sustaining upper-90s velocity when he finally moved to the rotation as a fourth-year junior in 2021. He was sitting 95-99 mph throughout entire outings, and punched out at least eight hitters in each of his final 11 starts, culminating in a 13 K postseason outing against Vanderbilt when his stock reached its pinnacle. While there were some pre-draft industry concerns about the balky back, Williams' innings-eating frame, his intense on-mound presence, and the ferocity of his stuff made him a slam dunk first round prospect. His slider execution is especially consistent, though his curveball has the more visually pleasing movement. Increased changeup emphasis, which was already evident during Williams' first instructs, has occurred in pro ball, and while Williams' meal ticket is still his mid-90s fastball, which he rips past hitters at the letters, he has three viable weapons right now and might have a fourth as his changeup develops. It's a mid-rotation starter's stuff, and healthy Williams should produce as such at the big league level, though the pitchers who tend to get hurt are the ones who have been hurt in the past, and there's enough of a track record here to alter how Williams lines up with similarly talented peers.

If he's a potential mid-rotation starter with an injury history, then he's Cade Cavalli with a half-season in MLB, or what we hope Cavalli is. Here's he'd be start the year as #2 behind Gore. I suppose this would be cashing in on outfield prospect depth and cashing out on Wood based on his Ks. To me, this looks like a sell-low with blow up potential. If I'm moving Wood out of concern about his risk of bust, then I think I want a floor of likely mid-rotation starter (clean injury history, or maybe just a TJS).

[Slateman]

I dont touch Cleveland pitching prospects with a 10 foot pole

[Senatorswin]

Hold onto Wood. His ceiling is high and the Nats should have a good idea of what they have after this season.

[Smithian]

Hold onto Wood. His ceiling is high and the Nats should have a good idea of what they have after this season.

I agree. Nationals need to get lucky with a prospect or two and James Wood has too much ceiling for this team to move on. If we had won ~75 games last season, I'd consider it. But not where the Nationals are right now.