CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle

[nobleisthyname]

Yep. Nice month. Long way to go.

I'm pretty sure you said that last month too. He's been hot since the middle of June.

[Slateman]

I'm pretty sure you said that last month too. He's been hot since the middle of June.

Also went cold towards the end of July. Like I said, nice month. Showing his ranks against other NL shortstops is an indicator of how little talent there is at the position in the NL

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Also went cold towards the end of July. Like I said, nice month. Showing his ranks against other NL shortstops is an indicator of how little talent there is at the position in the NL

MASN - your mid-Atlantic home for cherry-picked stats.

That said, for the 21 qualified SS in MLB, he's now 11th in fWAR for the year.  That's something in terms of overall play, because was obviously much lower heading into June. He's ahead of Javy Baez, Carlos Correa, Willy Adames, Jeremy Pena, and Trea.  But to indulge in the cherry picking, the 30 day rankings have him 4th in MLB among 23 qualified.

[DCsOwn]

MASN - your mid-Atlantic home for cherry-picked stats.

That said, for the 21 qualified SS in MLB, he's now 11th in fWAR for the year.  That's something in terms of overall play, because was obviously much lower heading into June. He's ahead of Javy Baez, Carlos Correa, Willy Adames, Jeremy Pena, and Trea.  But to indulge in the cherry picking, the 30 day rankings have him 4th in MLB among 23 qualified.

And just as importantly when projecting forward are the flashes. He's clearly as athletically dynamic as any SS in the sport. He's also gotten stronger over the past year and has flashed the sort of power that augurs well for his production in that regard in the future. He's still very much a developing player, but this season (in my mind) should have everyone believing that the ceiling most projected him to have when MLB Pipeline had him as the 4th highest rated player in his draft class is very much attainable.

I genuinely don't know how you watch him play now and walk away thinking that he isn't a potential star down the line if he continues on this trajectory.


MLB.com’s 2019 draft prospect ranking:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2019/draft/

Kid is still three years younger than Stott.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

And just as importantly when projecting forward are the flashes. He's clearly as athletically dynamic as any SS in the sport. He's also gotten stronger over the past year and has flashed the sort of power that augurs well for his production in that regard in the future. He's still very much a developing player, but this season (in my mind) should have everyone believing that the ceiling most projected him to have when MLB Pipeline had him as the 4th highest rated player in his draft class is very much attainable.

yes. the wisdom of Svrluga at the start of the year holds: it's a good season if Abrams is better at the end of the year than he is at the start. Looks very likely to have hit that mark. Now he just needs to avoid slipping back to bad habits at the plate and in the field. Middling power is nice at this stage, and that's where he is, too. Sort of a bonus.

[DCsOwn]

yes. the wisdom of Svrluga at the start of the year holds: it's a good season if Abrams is better at the end of the year than he is at the start. Looks very likely to have hit that mark. Now he just needs to avoid slipping back to bad habits at the plate and in the field. Middling power is nice at this stage, and that's where he is, too. Sort of a bonus.

Absolutely.

[welch]

Go, CJ! Hits hard and steal bases like Trea. Just as best I remember, Trea started with a weird hop when he threw to 1B

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/16/cj-abrams-nationals-thirty-stolen-bases/

Golden article on how Abrams has developed as a base stealer.

“Beginning of the season, it was more so ‘is this the time for me to go? Is it not?,’ ” Young Jr. said “A little bit of that fear was in there. And then once we got past that, it was like you know what? Let’s play your game and do what you do. Once we allowed him do that, he took off and he’s been great since.”

Abrams stole 11 bases in the team’s first 87 games. But he has stolen 19 bases in 33 games since he moved into the leadoff spot, which equates to 93 bases over a full 162-game season. He had a streak of 25 consecutive stolen bases snapped when he was caught on Friday against the Oakland Athletics, but he still owns the club record. Now, he joins Alfonso Soriano, Nyjer Morgan, Denard Span and Trea Turner as the only Nationals to steal 30 bases. Turner did it four times.

...

Thomas said after a win earlier this month in Cincinnati that it felt like whenever he came to the plate, Abrams was always on second or third. He added that it’s easier to hit in that situation because he doesn’t feel pressure to produce extra base hits, knowing that just a ball in play scores a runner.

Interesting way Thomas put it. There's a lot of hitters who feel too distracted by baserunners to have them steal. Also, there's a tendency to not let guys run in front of big hitters due to the possibility of running into an out or, if the steal is success, the hitter getting pitched around with an open 1st base. Maybe Thomas is not regarded as a guy you have a problem with getting pitched around. More likely, the better odds of stealing success this year has lowered the risk of running into an out. Certainly CJ's ridiculous success rate makes that a low risk.

[imref]

i really hope the Nats take the Braves approach with CJ and lock him up for the next 10 years or so, or at least until the next time the Padres draft a stud SS prospect.

[Slateman]

80 grade pimp job

[rileyn]

Just observing him the other night at the Red Sox opener, he is now carrying himself like a big leaguer on the field.  It was the first game I had been to in 2 months and the difference in watching him between plays was like night and day.  Great to see. 

[imref]

Probably going to get drilled in his first AB today

[GburgNatsFan]

Yeah he's getting thrown at for that.

80 grade pimp job

[aspenbubba]

Probably going to get drilled in his first AB today

Why do you say that? Did he do something that violated the unwritten rules of baseball?

I believe he has progressed tremendously this season and will continue to grow as OUR SS. If memory serves me correctly I think Trea was criticized by some members here after he moved from CF to SS. Was that you Slate ?

[imref]

Why do you say that? Did he do something that violated the unwritten rules of baseball?

I believe he has progressed tremendously this season and will continue to grow as OUR SS. If memory serves me correctly I think Trea was criticized by some members here after he moved from CF to SS. Was that you Slate ?

Watch the replay, he stood and admired the shot.

I agree Abrams is a special player. Lock him up!

[imref]

Once a bad a$$…

https://x.com/nationals/status/1692696812853821727?s=46&t=VxK4vP11aMUU5dFhz5Ltrg

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I am floored by his offensive development. 15 HR and 40 SBs is realistic. I guess the scouts and draft raters aren't idiots when they thought a lot of him. Preller, OTOH . . . thanks. .293 / .351 / .457 hitting 1st over 156 PAs.

One things about his game is his big cutback in Ks and slight increase in walking now that he's leading off. Batting 8th, his K% (20.9) less his BB% (3.4) was 17.5%. MLB average is 14.1%. Batting 9th, it was worse (21%). Lead-off, he's cut his K% back to 14.7%, and his BB% is up to 5.8%; net, that 9.9%.  More contact with better or roughly the same BABIP (.274 batting 8th, .308 batting 9th, .39 lead-off) while having similar quality to contact has led to more hits.

[GburgNatsFan]

That ball landed in the stands before he flipped the bat. Just stood and watched. The rule may be unwritten, but it's well known.

That whole sequence was a thing of beauty.

Why do you say that? Did he do something that violated the unwritten rules of baseball?

I believe he has progressed tremendously this season and will continue to grow as OUR SS. If memory serves me correctly I think Trea was criticized by some members here after he moved from CF to SS. Was that you Slate ?

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

Watch the replay, he stood and admired the shot.

I agree Abrams is a special player. Lock him up!

This team needs players with attitude. These stupid unwritten rules need to go.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

I am floored by his offensive development. 15 HR and 40 SBs is realistic. I guess the scouts and draft raters aren't idiots when they thought a lot of him. Preller, OTOH . . . thanks. .293 / .351 / .457 hitting 1st over 156 PAs.

One things about his game is his big cutback in Ks and slight increase in walking now that he's leading off. Batting 8th, his K% (20.9) less his BB% (3.4) was 17.5%. MLB average is 14.1%. Batting 9th, it was worse (21%). Lead-off, he's cut his K% back to 14.7%, and his BB% is up to 5.8%; net, that 9.9%.  More contact with better or roughly the same BABIP (.274 batting 8th, .308 batting 9th, .39 lead-off) while having similar quality to contact has led to more hits.

This is sort of the natural progression you would expect of a top 10 prospect I would think. Not that it always happens but I never understood the fans who had already given up on CJ? There were always signs that he had this ability but sometimes development is a weird process and it’s like a light switch goes off.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This is sort of the natural progression you would expect of a top 10 prospect I would think. Not that it always happens but I never understood the fans who had already given up on CJ? There were always signs that he had this ability but sometimes development is a weird process and it’s like a light switch goes off.

you're right. Too quick to judge.

Back to ks and contact quality. More or less, he's making the same quality and type of contact leading off as he was doing hitting 9th (Ld/gb/fb, pull/oppo, hard hit, iso, babip), it's just the extra discipline and cutting the ks means a lot more of it, so the average and obp jump.

[DCsOwn]

 “I think that a lot of Abrams’ improvement can be traced to his batting leadoff. He batted exclusively in the bottom third of the order through July 6. On July 7, the Nats moved him to the top of the order, and he’s looked like a completely different hitter since then. His baserunning and fielding are smaller issues, because both look like they’ll be solid enough in the end. If Abrams can hit, he’s valuable, and now he’s hitting.“

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cj-abrams-takes-the-lead/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

same article matches up with a point in replies #316 and #320:

Speaking of putting pitches into play, I mentioned Abrams’ whiff rate up above, and that too has taken a turn for the better. That’s partially because he’s swinging at fewer fastballs that he should be taking, but it’s also because he’s staying within himself more frequently.

What do I mean by that? Despite Abrams’ improvement at the plate in the last month and a half, he’s hitting the ball hard far less frequently. 36.1% of his batted balls left the bat at 95 mph or harder before he switched to leadoff; since then, he’s down to 29.6%. Neither of these numbers are good – the league average is around 40% – but he seems to be sacrificing a bit of hard contact as part of a “chase fewer fastballs” mindset.

The weird thing about it? You’ll note that I didn’t say that his contact quality is down. By pretty much any measure you can think of, he’s doing just fine in that category even with fewer hard-hit balls. His xwOBA on contact is up over the past month and a half. He’s hitting more barrels (8% against 5.9%) and more line drives. When he gets the ball in the air, he’s pulling it slightly more frequently, and he still has enough power that those pulled air balls have been quite valuable.

you're right. Too quick to judge.

Back to ks and contact quality. More or less, he's making the same quality and type of contact leading off as he was doing hitting 9th (Ld/gb/fb, pull/oppo, hard hit, iso, babip), it's just the extra discipline and cutting the ks means a lot more of it, so the average and obp jump.

There's something to the head game of being comfortable in a slot in the order. His offense was clearly worse hitting #8 than #9 or #1. As noted, #1 he's not striking out as much. Staying within himself.

[catocony]

He's now seeing an extra plate appearance per game compared to batting at the bottom of the lineup.  He's getting more chances now.

[imref]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cj-abrams-takes-the-lead/

Notes that the biggest area of improvement for him is that he drastically reduced chasing fastballs outside the zone