Author Topic: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle  (Read 3090 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 38238
  • Re-contending in 2023
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #125: September 06, 2022, 11:59:52 AM »
The Abrams effect:

Quote
Thanks to SteveR20, we have some numbers to compare before and after Abrams arrived. The pitching staff had a combined 5.30 ERA and a 5.03 FIP before Abrams. After Abrams arrived, the ERA has improved by over 2-runs per game to a 3.13 ERA and a 4.22 FIP if we remove Cade Cavalli‘s blow-up start. We removed Cade’s start because of the way it would have skewed the ERA numbers in a small sample size of just 19-games. As SteveR20 pointed out, if we included that Cavalli start, the FIP would have improved.

Of course with any analysis this could all be coincidental — but we don’t think that is the case here as we have always felt — and write about often that DEFENSE MATTERS. It isn’t that Abrams is Gold Glove because in his small sample size he has made some errors, but all but one error was on aggressive plays. Abrams range is so good that he gets to balls that the average shortstop will not reach. Yes, his OAA is just below league average based on those errors — but he replaced a player who was a -13 and on pace for the worst annualized shortstop OAA since Statcast started measuring defense.

https://www.talknats.com/2022/09/06/nats-setting-records-good-type-finally/

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 35176
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #126: September 06, 2022, 12:41:02 PM »
I don't think he has to be Trea Turner for this to be a success.

Look at Ian Desmond's first couple full time seasons. It wasn't pretty. Sometimes it just takes time.
there are 5 hitters who are under 22 and have over 100 PAs in MLB this year:
Julio Rodriguez
Michael Harris
Riley Greene
Wander Franco
CJ Abrams

Vaughn Grissom is at 94. 

All but CJ Abrams have an OPS+ of at least 100.  Abrams is at 68.  You can't tell me he's not rushed offensively and would not benefit from a more exposure to the high minors.  He may very well overcome being rushed, but you can't tell me he's gotten all he could out of plate appearances in the high minors. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 35176
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #127: September 06, 2022, 12:50:39 PM »
The Abrams effect:

https://www.talknats.com/2022/09/06/nats-setting-records-good-type-finally/
No question the D has improved since his call up.  You could maybe argue that the D was so bad a series of changes needed to be made in order to give the pitchers a fighting chance to show something. Remember, the intent was to have Cavalli and possibly Gore in the rotation down the stretch, along with Gray.  Even Corbin, Fedde, and Sanchez benefit. 

It's been pointed out that there were 4 defensive upgrades around the time of Abrams call up - Abrams replacing Garcia at SS, Vargas replacing Franco at 3rd, Robles nearly full-time in CF from a more even split with Thomas, and Thomas nearly full-time in a corner after Yadi went down.  All those moves probably factor into the improved pitching.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 22519
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #128: September 06, 2022, 01:27:53 PM »
there are 5 hitters who are under 22 and have over 100 PAs in MLB this year:
Julio Rodriguez
Michael Harris
Riley Greene
Wander Franco
CJ Abrams

Vaughn Grissom is at 94. 

All but CJ Abrams have an OPS+ of at least 100.  Abrams is at 68.  You can't tell me he's not rushed offensively and would not benefit from a more exposure to the high minors.  He may very well overcome being rushed, but you can't tell me he's gotten all he could out of plate appearances in the high minors.
May just be he is not now and never will be as good a hitter as those guys. 

Offline nfotiu

  • Posts: 4729
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #129: September 06, 2022, 01:34:02 PM »
there are 5 hitters who are under 22 and have over 100 PAs in MLB this year:
Julio Rodriguez
Michael Harris
Riley Greene
Wander Franco
CJ Abrams

Vaughn Grissom is at 94. 

All but CJ Abrams have an OPS+ of at least 100.  Abrams is at 68.  You can't tell me he's not rushed offensively and would not benefit from a more exposure to the high minors.  He may very well overcome being rushed, but you can't tell me he's gotten all he could out of plate appearances in the high minors. 
Is there a big difference on how well a player can develop in the minors vs the 2022 Nats?   Yeah, rushing him on previous Nats teams or other decent teams where there would be pressure to perform could hurt his development.  Pitchers aren't necessarily easier to hit in the minors.   A lot of them are working on control more than anything.   Would the developmental coaching and facilities be better in the minors or on the Nats? 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 35176
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #130: September 06, 2022, 01:43:54 PM »
May just be he is not now and never will be as good a hitter as those guys. 
I'd be surprised if he did not have the high end of a league average hitter, which is what an OPS+ of 100 is.  I don't expect him to be Wander Franco or Julio Rodriguez, but what that very small group shows is that it is very exceptional for a guy to be up at age 21, and often it is guys like Franco or Rodriguez who are up because there's nothing left to prove in the minors.  All of this goes to my point that it looks like he's been rushed, at least offensively.  TBH, Harris is the other guy on that list who looks rushed but panned out very well. 

Again, there's other scouting reports, but Abrams has big gaps between his offensive tools now vs. future projections on FG's scouting report.

50/70 for his hit tool, 30/50 for game power, 45/55 for raw power.  Speed is 80/80 :shock:  That look like to me excellent contact and average power. Certainly not seeing that in terms of power yet.  FWIW, those current ratings look almost spot on.  His defense is surprisingly good. 

Offline imref

  • Posts: 38238
  • Re-contending in 2023
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #131: September 06, 2022, 01:55:11 PM »
FWIW, here's prospectslive in 2021's scouting report on Abrams:

Quote
Hit: Slightly open stance, hands at the letters. Body upright with feet shoulder width apart. Small hand load with hitch. Leg kick timing mechanism varies in size; sometimes sizeable, sometimes minimal. Above average bat speed with a linear path. Easy swing with bat control. Pull-side approach, but shows ability to go to all fields. Above average bat to ball skills, rarely whiffs in the zone. Exceptional hand eye coordination, fouls off tough pitches with two-strikes. Calm demeanor at the plate. Mature approach, ability to take close pitches and recognizes spin well. Natural gifted hitter who is a tough out. Grade: 60

Power: Average raw power. Needs more strength to utilize it in game. Shows ability to drive ball. Mostly pull-side currently. Hits off front side well, produces natural loft. Bat speed and loft indicate future power potential. Speed leads to lots of XBH. Added strength will help long ball, should lead to at least fringy power, if not more. Grade: 45

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 35176
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #132: September 09, 2022, 04:49:45 PM »
At long last, Nationals have a double play combo that can grow together
Quote
One implication was that, once and for all, García is the Washington Nationals’ second baseman and will have every opportunity to stick there. And if the Nationals’ plan unfolds to their liking, Abrams will be right beside him, giving the club its first stable double play combination of Martinez’s tenure. In 2018, Martinez’s first year as manager, Trea Turner was at shortstop and Daniel Murphy was the bat-first second baseman until he was traded toward the end of summer. For the next 2½ seasons, Turner was the constant while his partner kept rotating, the cast including Brian Dozier, Howie Kendrick, Asdrúbal Cabrera, Adrián Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Wilmer Difo, García, Hernán Pérez (very briefly), Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer and Alcides Escobar.
...
García has looked much more comfortable since shifting back to second. And anecdotally, the fielding has improved at least four positions in recent weeks: Abrams at short instead of García; Vargas at third instead of Maikel Franco; Lane Thomas or Alex Call in left instead of Yadiel Hernandez; and Joey Meneses in right instead of Juan Soto, who was having the worst defensive season of his career before he was traded to the San Diego Padres on Aug. 2.

Abrams has a ton of range and is refining his footwork and arm. The two are often connected, with third base coach Gary DiSarcina saying he wants Abrams to “stay in his legs” and not “pop up” when throwing to first. DiSarcina and bench coach Tim Bogar train the team’s infielders, a task that became much bigger when Abrams was acquired in the six-player package for Soto and Josh Bell. Martinez has noticed Vargas, a strong defender, also helping the young guys with position and pre-pitch preparation.

Interesting point about Meneses actually being an upgrade defensively from Soto.  Also how Vargas provides some savvy to help the younger players.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 60561
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #133: September 09, 2022, 05:16:18 PM »
Abrams, Menses, and Vargas are all defensive upgrades.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 38238
  • Re-contending in 2023
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #134: September 09, 2022, 05:41:44 PM »
At long last, Nationals have a double play combo that can grow together
Interesting point about Meneses actually being an upgrade defensively from Soto.  Also how Vargas provides some savvy to help the younger players.

This is a much better team with Abrams, Voit, and Meneses than it was with Garcia at SS, and Soto and Bell.  There, I said it.


Offline imref

  • Posts: 38238
  • Re-contending in 2023

Offline DCsOwn

  • Posts: 126
  • Another New Hope

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

  • Posts: 867
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #138: September 11, 2022, 11:23:57 AM »
https://twitter.com/nationals/status/1568730050404536320?s=46&t=fpuBMlwRPGZq9TGxR6CHSw

Kid is a highlight reel at ss

I love Soto but man, I guess if we had to trade him getting this guy in return is pretty nice.


Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 13685
  • That’s gonna be a no from me, doge.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 38238
  • Re-contending in 2023
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #141: September 11, 2022, 09:28:34 PM »
Padres should probably stop trading us shortstops.

Offline DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 22828
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #142: September 11, 2022, 10:24:40 PM »
Seems like he’s resdy

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11275
  • Sunshine Squad 2022
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #143: September 12, 2022, 07:04:27 AM »
Small sample size on the bat showing up. Still a great and positive sign. He needed a taste of success before the offseason.

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 13685
  • That’s gonna be a no from me, doge.
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #144: September 12, 2022, 09:15:04 AM »
@slate you just waiting for a 0-fer game to post in here again?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 35176
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #145: September 12, 2022, 09:56:32 AM »
I'm thinking the folks who said he was a question mark to be able to field well enough to stick at SS are probably hiding, too.

The hits could be a hot streak.  OTOH, maybe there's been an adjustment after a couple hundred PAs. Wouldn't be the first guy for which this is true. 


Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 60561
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #147: September 12, 2022, 10:29:23 AM »
@slate you just waiting for a 0-fer game to post in here again?
Ive already made my position known. He's hitting grounders with decent EV. His ceiling is non-2014-2015 Dee Gordon. Its still blatently obvious he needs more seasoning in the minors. But, no, I'm sure a .406 BABIP with no walks is totally sustainable

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 5242
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #148: September 12, 2022, 11:16:17 AM »
I'm thinking the folks who said he was a question mark to be able to field well enough to stick at SS are probably hiding, too.

Hey, that's what the scouting reports said.

They appear to have been dead wrong.  That was pretty readily apparent, and not only by contrast with Garcia.

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 13685
  • That’s gonna be a no from me, doge.
Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #149: September 12, 2022, 12:32:15 PM »
CEILING is Dee Gordon? Lol