Author Topic: August 2nd, 22, a date that will live in Infamy: Juan Soto traded to the Padres  (Read 4249 times)

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Offline Slateman

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What if the de-juiced ball has a bigger impact on him because so much of his power is oppo?
Two things:

1. I feel like that info would be there
2. I feel like his oppo homers would become oppo doubles.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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I believe Wood is also top-50 according to MLB, around 35 IIRC.

I don't disagree with your main point btw, but I think MLB is also a bit too high on recent draftees/low minors prospects.

Yes, Wood is - and that surprised me.  I think they way, way, WAY too heavily weight draft pedigree.  For example, here are two players:

A: 2020 Draftee; turned 20 in August - definitely can stick in RF and greater than 50/50 to be able to play CF; A+ stats: .286/.387/.481, 57/73 BB/K; 11 homers

B: 2020 Draftee; turned 21 in August - definitely can stick in RF and greater than 50/50 to be able to play CF: A+ stats: .274/.379/.467, 53/103 BB/K 14 homers; AA stats .183/.256/.268 in SSS.

Both players were HS draft picks out of Tennessee.  They are both tall, lanky, lefty hitters with above-average arms.  Player A is a faster runner.  So why is player B - almost exactly a year older with almost identical stats at the same level as A and bad stats once promoted - ranked 36 spots higher than A?

Well, Hassell (B) was the #8 overall pick.  Evan Carter (A) was 50th. 

Offline UMDNats

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Two things:

1. I feel like that info would be there
2. I feel like his oppo homers would become oppo doubles.

There's some interesting trends in his batted ball profile (declining LD%, rising FB%, more pulling) but hard to say. I think it's entirely possible we got literally the best years of Soto's pre-FA career. These players aren't robots who follow a linear path all the time. I wouldn't bet money on it but I think it's one potential scenario. Would be a pretty incredible gift for Rizzo/the Nats if that is the case.

I think this year's performance is basically his floor, but without knowing more information about him as a player (his personality, hitting coach work, etc.) it's difficult to project moving forward. Watching him this year he was absolutely not the same guy at the plate. He's patient as ever but just felt something was off.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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here's a quote of the Bowden ranking in the Susana Farm thread:
Not that he's any authority or anything but Jim Bowden placed Susana at #28 on his top 50 prospect list.

Hassell #7, Wood #18, Green #25, Susana #28, Cavalli #48.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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There's some interesting trends in his batted ball profile (declining LD%, rising FB%, more pulling) but hard to say. I think it's entirely possible we got literally the best years of Soto's pre-FA career. These players aren't robots who follow a linear path all the time. I wouldn't bet money on it but I think it's one potential scenario. Would be a pretty incredible gift for Rizzo/the Nats if that is the case.

I think this year's performance is basically his floor, but without knowing more information about him as a player (his personality, hitting coach work, etc.) it's difficult to project moving forward. Watching him this year he was absolutely not the same guy at the plate. He's patient as ever but just felt something was off.
I have a lot of faith in his willingness to work through issues and to learn.  That pops out in every profile of him.  Not to criticize Darnell Coles, but I don't think he had the same relationship with Soto as Long did.  I don't know about SD's hitting coach either, but he was sort of plopped in with him in the middle of a stretch run, with no time to work on things on the side, on a team that's a little desperate without Tatis (or Voit :) ).

The line Mookie had with him on the mic on ESPN I think demonstrates that his eye is still extraordinary, Bonds / Williams /Boggs level. This is also a guy that shouldn't be affected by the humidor balls.  It's not like he had just enough power.  He hits shots, upper deck, to right, and his oppo pop still is highlight reel.  The pull-happy tendency is a giveaway that he's trying something and that it's not getting results yet.  I have a lot of faith on where he will end up. 


Offline Slateman

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here's a quote of the Bowden ranking in the Susana Farm thread:
That is laughably dumb.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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That is laughably dumb.
and a bit Nats-obsessive.  5 guys in his top 50?

Offline Slateman

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and a bit Nats-obsessive.  5 guys in his top 50?
Meh, Susana is just so out there. Like if he were in the top 100 at like 94, okay. But 28? Dude has 6 innings in low A.

Offline UMDNats

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I have a lot of faith in his willingness to work through issues and to learn.  That pops out in every profile of him.  Not to criticize Darnell Coles, but I don't think he had the same relationship with Soto as Long did.  I don't know about SD's hitting coach either, but he was sort of plopped in with him in the middle of a stretch run, with no time to work on things on the side, on a team that's a little desperate without Tatis (or Voit :) ).

The line Mookie had with him on the mic on ESPN I think demonstrates that his eye is still extraordinary, Bonds / Williams /Boggs level. This is also a guy that shouldn't be affected by the humidor balls.  It's not like he had just enough power.  He hits shots, upper deck, to right, and his oppo pop still is highlight reel.  The pull-happy tendency is a giveaway that he's trying something and that it's not getting results yet.  I have a lot of faith on where he will end up. 



I don't disagree with any of that. He worked with a trash hitting coach here and it probably will take a full offseason to get his swing back to normal. He's got the thinking part of it down but I meant more of, "how does a guy his age respond to the pressure of needing to put up otherworldly numbers to justify his contract demands, and the price the team paid to get him?" These guys are human beings. He was a teenager surrounded by veteran studs when we won in 2019 and most of 2020, too. This year with runners on you could feel that he was trying to hit a home run every time, and he sucked at driving guys in. He hit a ton of bombs for us the last few years in garbage time. I think the pressing need to hit to a 1.100 OPS to justify the contract you just said was a bad offer is heavy.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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here's a quote of the Bowden ranking in the Susana Farm thread:

Does Bowden not understand that the minors are segmented into levels, and that the higher ones are harder?  Because that's about the only way to square those rankings with reality.

Online Senatorswin

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I watched the Padres game last night. Soto is 2 for his last 27, both singles. His at bats were ugly last night. One time he had a 3-0 count and took two very hittable strikes before grounding out on a 3-2 pitch. I was watching the Arizona feed and they said the walks are great but at this point the Padre fans want to see him swing the bat when he gets a fat pitch ahead in the count. In the 8th he came up with 1st and 3rd 1 out with the Padres down 5-4. He struck out on three pitches.

In an interview Soto said:

“The challenge is just going from a team that doesn’t care about anything because they know they don’t go anywhere to a team that has a really good chance to win the World Series,” Soto said, as quoted by Acee. “That changes everything from one day to another.”

This next in the article:

While a harsh assessment of his former club, Soto spoke at different points this season about the pressure he put on himself trying to carry a struggling Nationals offense as the losses piled up. During his introductory press conference with the Padres, he shared that “to go from a team that has no chance to come all the way here, it's a great feeling.”

My take, you have protection with Machado behind you, stop crying about challenges and play ball.

Online Natsinpwc

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Just shut up and hit. 

It is interesting because he never really had the pressure on him with the Nats. Team was big underdog in 2019 and lots of veterans in the lineup around him. Now the expectations are high. 

Offline Smithian

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I watched the Padres game last night. Soto is 2 for his last 27, both singles. His at bats were ugly last night. One time he had a 3-0 count and took two very hittable strikes before grounding out on a 3-2 pitch. I was watching the Arizona feed and they said the walks are great but at this point the Padre fans want to see him swing the bat when he gets a fat pitch ahead in the count. In the 8th he came up with 1st and 3rd 1 out with the Padres down 5-4. He struck out on three pitches.

In an interview Soto said:

“The challenge is just going from a team that doesn’t care about anything because they know they don’t go anywhere to a team that has a really good chance to win the World Series,” Soto said, as quoted by Acee. “That changes everything from one day to another.”

This next in the article:

While a harsh assessment of his former club, Soto spoke at different points this season about the pressure he put on himself trying to carry a struggling Nationals offense as the losses piled up. During his introductory press conference with the Padres, he shared that “to go from a team that has no chance to come all the way here, it's a great feeling.”

My take, you have protection with Machado behind you, stop crying about challenges and play ball.
freak off. You were being paid $20 million and worshipped by the fanbase of a franchise that has as many championships as the Padres do winning seasons over the last decade.

Offline nfotiu

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In a way I kind of get it.      Post 2021 trade deadline, the team had obviously given up on winning for the next couple years.    He played great after we'd given up last year though, while not playing so hot while we still thought we had a chance.   He didn't play that great at the beginning of this year on a bad team, and is playing even worse on a better SD team.   He did have a little pressure in 2019 trying to fill Bryce's shoes, and he played well.    So who knows!

I'm sure Nats fans who've seen him at his best would have a lot more patience for a pro-longed slump.   He's put himself in a position though where he's now being counted on help lead a team to the playoffs and also to prove to himself that he didn't make a big mistake turning down 450 million.   

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Quote
3. One player, no matter how great they are, can only do so much.
Soto has been excellent since joining the Padres. He has put up a 128 OPS+ with San Diego, and while he hasn't slugged as much as you might like, he's got a .405 OBP: He's exactly what the Padres wanted.
https://www.mlb.com/news/lessons-learned-since-2022-trade-deadline
128 OPS+ is pretty good, just less we'd expect from Soto.

Offline UMDNats

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He has a .773 OPS in San Diego. Not sure how that's "exactly what the Padres wanted" after they gave up literally their whole farm in what people called the biggest trade in MLB history.

Offline nfotiu

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I don't know what kind of voodoo turns a .773 ops into a good OPS+.   

He was hitting decent in the 18 games before missing the games with a bad back.   In the 10 games since, he has been awful no matter what magical stats you can pull out.  5 for 35 with 1 home run being the only extra base hit.   I feel like some of these stats way over-value walks.

Offline nobleisthyname

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I don't know what kind of voodoo turns a .773 ops into a good OPS+.

The majority of the league posting OPS's significantly lower than that. + stats are comparing the player to the league average.

Online Natsinpwc

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The majority of the league posting OPS's significantly lower than that. + stats are comparing the player to the league average.
Yea. I think the league average this year is around .700.

Offline Kevrock

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Regarding Susana, Bowden has always been tool focused.