Author Topic: August 2nd, 22, a date that will live in Infamy: Juan Soto traded to the Padres  (Read 2684 times)

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Offline imref

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things seem to have gotten awfully quiet all of the sudden, still no confirmation of a done deal after Hosmer rejected it, some reports are that the Padres are looking for a third club but who would take Hosmer?



Offline stoneghost28

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You know, if the deal is going through without Hosmer and the package is the same, then I'm slightly less pissed at the return.

Me as well, we still added Bell for no justifiable reason, but via fangraphs, a haul of 4 of their top 5 prospects is still a haul, but it's not good enough. We needed some more 11th-30th type guys to justify adding Bell, w/or without the Hosmer eating deal.

Offline imref

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Hosmer subtracts about 35 points from the Nats get

Offline stoneghost28

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MacKenzie Gore- Major leage ready lefty. 3rd overall pick in 2017. Good #2 starter

SS- CJ Abrams. Major league ready. 6th overall pick in 2019. Elite contact hitter and defender

CF- Robert Hassell. 8th overall pick in 2020. 21st best prospect in baseball. Best left handed hitter in the nation. Ready next year

OF- James Wood. 86th overall prospect in MLB. 6'7, 240 pound lefty power hitter

SP- Jardin Susana. 6'6, 235
The top-ranked pitcher in the 2021-22 international class. ETA- 2024/25

So a ML ready lefty and SS. Two top 100 prospects.
And Susana who has major upside for a guy who wanted 50 mil a year. Not bad I guess

It's a good haul, its just not a Ted Williams caliber haul, it's a best player in a trade deadline with multiple years of control type deal.

It's still good though. And if the pitcher I'd never heard of is that good, it might actually be pretty good haul (and a fantastic haul if Gore turns it around).

Offline Smithian

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That’s not how you rank prospects.
The guys infront of him aren't nobodies. Hassell and Cavalli make sense, Vaquero was a huge international signing, Wood is raking, and House before an injury was raking in Fredericksburg a year after he was best high school hitter in draft.

I think Elijah Green has an ultra high ceiling, but #6 on that list makes sense. De La Rosa and Henry are having big seasons, but it's clear that's where the dropoff is.

Offline imref

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Passan "blown away" by the Nats haul for Soto and Bell:

https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/34334509

Offline welch

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I looked up Hosmer: he makes $13 million a year, which is $2 million cheaper than Cruz, although Hosmer has a longer contract. Let Hosmer and YadiStar share 1b and DH. He is rated 1.3 WAR so far in '22 by B-Ref.

Maybe better: trade him to Kansas City for their CF, who hits better than Robles, runs the bases better (last I looked, F-G rated Robles a negative base-runner), and fields better than Robles as he knows where to throw. MAT can handle CF until one of the kids, like Vaquero, is ready.

Offline Smithian

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Passan "blown away" by the Nats haul for Soto and Bell:

https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/34334509
I'm feeling slightly better than I did an hour ago. Still mad, but less mad.

But if Hosmer forcing his way out reduces the prospect return? I'll be back to pure fury.

Offline stoneghost28

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Gore is not a number 2 starter. He's a bust

He's not a bust yet, he's the perfect example of a wild card, roll of the dice etc.

Has/had the potential to be FOR starter, but has gone utterly sideways the past couple of years.

Can he rebound, or is he a bust? We'll find out, but fangraphs doesn't put Gore #4 in the Padres system as of two months ago because he's a "bust".

Keith Law on Gore, as his #3 in the Padres system five months ago:

"....Gore had a miserable 2021, losing his delivery early in the spring, spending several weeks in Peoria at the Padres’ complex to try to rework and simplify it, and having only intermittent success after his return. He was also still 93-98. His changeup is easy plus, maybe a 70. His slider is plus. His curveball has backed up some, but when he hits it it’s above-average. He’s still incredibly athletic. His arm stroke is shorter now, and he’s had days when he’s repeated it well and thrown strikes, but he’s also had days where he slips back into old habits. There’s still a No. 1 starter ceiling here; only the probability has dropped, but it ain’t zero, folks. I’m not walking away from this kind of upside and athleticism...."

ie: he's a high risk prospect at this point w/a huge ceiling and a bottom of the barrell floor.

The three hitters are all studs, top 5 system products, with elite potential for all 3.

International pitcher is legit.

It's a solid Soto only haul, but not enough for Soto+Bell+Hosmer contract.

Assuming it's done, it's huge for 2024 and beyond, but we only get the huge if we s--- can the people that decimated our farm system, and rake through the best orgs in baseball for coaches that can help develop our pitching and hitters (hello Cleveland, hello LA). If I'm the likely new owner, I'm looking for a new GM, new area scouts, and coaches from the best run orgs in baseball and I'm kicking Rizzo to the curb.

Offline imref

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I looked up Hosmer: he makes $13 million a year, which is $2 million cheaper than Cruz, although Hosmer has a longer contract. Let Hosmer and YadiStar share 1b and DH. He is rated 1.3 WAR so far in '22 by B-Ref.

Maybe better: trade him to Kansas City for their CF, who hits better than Robles, runs the bases better (last I looked, F-G rated Robles a negative base-runner), and fields better than Robles as he knows where to throw. MAT can handle CF until one of the kids, like Vaquero, is ready.

the reports were that we'd only pay Hosmer the rest of his 2022 contract, and that San Diego would cover 2023-24.

Offline welch

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So tonight's game is now free to watch, on MLB.tv...

Wonder why?....(unless it's to televise any fan protests...)   ;)

I will watch it on SNY, the Mets' channel. MASN will be blocked in NYC. Besides, I'd rather hear what Hernandez, Darling, or Cohen says about the Soto-Bell trade. From the UK, MLB.TV should give you a choice of MASN or SNY.

Offline imref

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I wonder how well the Franco and Cesar Hernandez jerseys will sell this coming Christmas season.

Offline stoneghost28

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Why would it be better in the offseason?   If a team wants in then, they'd want in now as well, I'd think?

The argument would be that more teams consider themselves contenders in December than in July, and can build a trade more effectively w/knowledge from the 2nd half of season and from fall leagues etc.

The problem w/that argument is that you are either trading for two chances to contend, or three, I have a hard time believing that two seasons trumps 3, even w/the fact that more teams consider themselves potential contenders in winter than July.

I'm kinda talking myself into this, and at times I can kind of see it, particularly if the international pitcher is a stud prospect, that's 3 stud hitting prospects and 2 legit pitchers. It's not enough, but it's not bad or a travesty or anything. It's just not quite enough if he's regarded as well as he is (plus the Padres can trade him at the deadline in '23 or '24 and harvest more players themselves).

Offline nfotiu

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I looked up Hosmer: he makes $13 million a year, which is $2 million cheaper than Cruz, although Hosmer has a longer contract. Let Hosmer and YadiStar share 1b and DH. He is rated 1.3 WAR so far in '22 by B-Ref.

Maybe better: trade him to Kansas City for their CF, who hits better than Robles, runs the bases better (last I looked, F-G rated Robles a negative base-runner), and fields better than Robles as he knows where to throw. MAT can handle CF until one of the kids, like Vaquero, is ready.

It counts 18 million towards the luxury tax which shouldn't be much of an issue for the Nats for the life of the contract.   I can see this being mutually beneficial to both teams.  We get a cheap MLB vet, they save on luxury tax thresholds.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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and now we have the money freed up to extend Abrams. :couch:
As a moderator, I will block any "Extend Abrams" threads.  They are futile.

Offline stoneghost28

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They way underrate Green.

My thoughts as well, I'd have Green at #3 and drop Cavalli and House below him for sure. Why on earth do they have Green that low? The floor? The other guys have floor concerns too, especially House and Cavalli.

Offline hotshot

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How does Gore's "stuff" - when healthy - compare with Cavalli's?

Offline stoneghost28

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This sorta feels like had the Bulls decided to trade Michael Jordan in his prime or something. I can’t even think of something really comparable that has happened in sports. A 23-year old, elite superstar who’s already won numerous awards and a world championship traded because the owners won’t pay. The fact owners can do this and still have fans stick around is unbelievable to me. Not only stick around but pay exorbitant concession prices and actually pay for tickets and parking. We’re the real dummies in all of us. Cheering this kind of stuff on is insanity.

The team had the 30th best Major League roster in baseball and a 25th or worse ranked farm in baseball.

During Soto's time w/the team in the future the team would be bottom 3 every single season guaranteed, and if resigned, he'd still probably not contend for anything unless new ownership did EVERYTHING for right for nearly a half decade.

I get the argument, but historically, when people denigrate trades like this, they focus on things like Babe Ruth, or Jordan's Bulls as you mention that played for teams that were actually good. Soto plays for a team that is utter garbage and has ZERO prospects going forward for nearly half a decade minimum. What chance was they're that he'd still want to stick around in '25 or beyond?

I'd argue there was ZERO chance. This was basically trading the one valuable piece on a team that was and is utterly irrelvant long term so that they might be relevant long term.

Its the Wiz trading Beal in '20 or '21 to have a chance at guys like Evan Mobley, Ja Morant, Cade etc, instead of doubling down on suck for another half decade, except it's even worse because the wiz at least had some pieces, we had nothing whatsoever.

Offline imref

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FWIW, here's a scouting report on Gore from last March (2021)

https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/mackenzie-gore

Quote
MAR 2021 REPORT

EVALUATOR: JAMES CHIPMAN

Age: 22 yr
Height: 6-2
Weight: 197 lbs
Hits/Throws: L/L
Acquired: 2017 Round 1
RuleV: 2021

Physical Description: Ideal pitcher's frame. Athletic, wiry build. Average torso; high waist with broad shoulders that slope and long levers. Average core; strong sturdy lower half. Impressive athlete with excellent coordination and fluid actions. Fierce competitor; wants the ball. Strong work ethic and advanced feel for the game.

Delivery & Mechanics: Semi-windup; drop and drive operation. High 3/4 arm slot with near elite arm speed from a low effort delivery. Average stride; above-average extension. Extension and arm speed pad perceived velocity. Huge exaggerated letter-high leg kick and deep hand break generate plus deception. Works downhill with fluid, athletic motions. Clean well repeated mechanics despite having a rather long arm path and complex deployment. Consistent, well balanced, online landings. Tunnels the entire arsenal exceptionally well.

Fastball: Sits 92-94 t96 with flashes of plus command. Explodes out of the hand. Fills the zone; flashes the ability to work all four quads. Manipulates velo and movement well. Shows exceptional riding life in the upper third; heavy sink in the lower half; occasional cut on the edges of the plate. Frame and high slot generate steep downward plane. Misses are predominantly glove-side and low in the zone. Extension, arm speed and deception pad the overall grade. Grade: 60

Curveball: Sits 77-80 with tight rotation, hard bite and big 1/7 action. Advanced feel; works it to both sides of the plate regardless of handedness of batter; comfortable pitching backwards. Steals strikes with it early in the count and utilizes it as a bat missing, put-away pitch. Hangers are rare. Lives on the edges; will backfoot RHB and backdoor LHB; occasionally spikes it beneath the zone for chase. Grade: 55

Slider: Sits 84-88; consistency and shape wavers. Upper velo band yields more horizontal action than depth, with occasional tilt. Lower velo band shows sweepy action more reminiscent of a slurve. Can spot it for strikes and get swing and miss to less advanced hitters. Overall a fringy wrinkle in the arsenal with average potential. Grade: 50

Changeup: Underutilized. Sits 82-85. Inconsistent but shows exceptional feel; maintains arm speed; tunneled well off FB with optimal velocity separation. Late tumble with moderate fade. Challenges same sided batters; tough against RHB. Elicits both swing and miss and weak contact. Should develop into an above-average offering with further pro instruction. Development will likely influence his future role. Grade: 55

Control and Command: Athleticism and unique but well repeated mechanics yield flashes of exceptional command. A confident strike thrower with plus control and above-average command at his best, Gore simply needs more consistency. He gets into grooves where he fills the zone, attacks and rarely wastes pitches. Occasional valleys where he loses feel for secondaires and struggles to find the zone. Overall an advanced feel for pitching; he attacks all four quads; shows confidence pitching backwards; avoids predictable sequencing; not afraid to attack inside or up in the zone. Lives in or around the zone; misses are predominately glove side and low. Enough positive traits to project consistent above-average command. Control: 60 | Command: 55

Overall: Gore has size, athleticism, flashes of command and a deep arsenal of potential above-average or better offerings - the blueprint for an impact level frontline SP. The development of his command and improved consistency of his secondaries will be paramount for him to reach his ceiling. One of baseball's best pitching prospects, Gore should eat plenty of innings and miss plenty of bats - a welcomed addition to an already stacked Padres rotation.

OFP: 60
Role: 70 - Impact Frontline SP
Risk: High

Offline van lingle mungo

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Dude, he is a freaking bust. He's literally on the IL for an elbow injury. Which is after he complete revamped his delivery. Which he revamped because he was always getting injured.  Strasburg was a healthier prospect.

And even when he was healthy this year, he was getting lucky.

Was on the IL 3 times in 2018 at age 18. Currently shelved for the remainder of the regular season due to elbow soreness, but his MRI read clean.
Sounds like a disaster in the making. 

Offline Kevrock

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My thoughts as well, I'd have Green at #3 and drop Cavalli and House below him for sure. Why on earth do they have Green that low? The floor? The other guys have floor concerns too, especially House and Cavalli.

Either they are way too low on him or they are weighting professional experience way too much. This just isn't how every other prospect list works.

Offline imref

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The team had the 30th best Major League roster in baseball and a 25th or worse ranked farm in baseball.

During Soto's time w/the team in the future the team would be bottom 3 every single season guaranteed, and if resigned, he'd still probably not contend for anything unless new ownership did EVERYTHING for right for nearly a half decade.

I get the argument, but historically, when people denigrate trades like this, they focus on things like Babe Ruth, or Jordan's Bulls as you mention that played for teams that were actually good. Soto plays for a team that is utter garbage and has ZERO prospects going forward for nearly half a decade minimum. What chance was they're that he'd still want to stick around in '25 or beyond?

I'd argue there was ZERO chance. This was basically trading the one valuable piece on a team that was and is utterly irrelvant long term so that they might be relevant long term.

Its the Wiz trading Beal in '20 or '21 to have a chance at guys like Evan Mobley, Ja Morant, Cade etc, instead of doubling down on suck for another half decade, except it's even worse because the wiz at least had some pieces, we had nothing whatsoever.

I'm in line with that thought. Keep Soto and we're still an awful team until 2025 (assuming the younger guys in rookie and A ball pan out), right when Soto is hitting free agency. Trade Soto now and we've added a lot of depth and potentially 2-3 stars. Of course it's rare that superstar for prospects trade work out for the team losing the superstar, but I think we're in better long-term shape than we were before (assuming the deal eventually goes through).

Offline imref

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As a moderator, I will block any "Extend Abrams" threads.  They are futile.

I'll appeal to Blue. :)

Online Five Banners

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If the new ownership group comes in and is ready spend

That at least elicited a laugh