Author Topic: August 2nd, 22, a date that will live in Infamy: Juan Soto traded to the Padres  (Read 2686 times)

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Offline hotshot

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Kelnic? Kelnic being included was probably the hang up with the deal because no one knows what to make of him at this point.
Looking more bust than future star.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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This sorta feels like had the Bulls decided to trade Michael Jordan in his prime or something. I can’t even think of something really comparable that has happened in sports. A 23-year old, elite superstar who’s already won numerous awards and a world championship traded because the owners won’t pay. The fact owners can do this and still have fans stick around is unbelievable to me. Not only stick around but pay exorbitant concession prices and actually pay for tickets and parking. We’re the real dummies in all of us. Cheering this kind of stuff on is insanity.

Online Kevrock

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  • That’s gonna be a no from me, doge.
I’ve posted at length my concerns about Gore. Dismissing him definitely as a bust is premature.

Offline stoneghost28

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He's possibly the best prospect in the trade and a top-25 overall prospect in a year.

Yep, for all of my griping, still worth noting, Fangraphs has us peeling off 4 of their top 5 prospects as of their May 22nd Padres Top Prospects list.

I'll grant the general consensus is that after a pile of trades and promotions the past 18 months the Padres farm went from top 1-5 overall, to somewhere in that 15-20th area for most rankers going into the season (seemed to be around 17th).

It's 4 potentially super elite prospects, w/1 super high risk (Gore) due to injuries, and 2 high risk due to being so far away from the majors.

I go back and forth on it, I remain 100% of the belief that its not enough (because of the Hosmer/Bell piece), but I do think, if it had been Soto alone, it could be considering pretty reasonable. I don't know anything about the other pitcher in the deal, does anyone know how well thought of he was/is?

Online Kevrock

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  • That’s gonna be a no from me, doge.
Looking more bust than future star.

Right, I just couldn’t do the Gore and Kelnic takes back to back. :lmao: Breaks my head.

Offline hotshot

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Third team may come into play with Hosmer --report on High Heat. Surely we deserve a decent prospect for our "disappointment" in not getting Hosmer at the least.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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  • babble on
Gretzky to LA
This sorta feels like had the Bulls decided to trade Michael Jordan in his prime or something. I can’t even think of something really comparable that has happened in sports. A 23-year old, elite superstar who’s already won numerous awards and a world championship traded because the owners won’t pay. The fact owners can do this and still have fans stick around is unbelievable to me. Not only stick around but pay exorbitant concession prices and actually pay for tickets and parking. We’re the real dummies in all of us. Cheering this kind of stuff on is insanity.

Offline Slateman

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Looking more bust than future star.
No more than Gore. Give it another year and Abrams will be right there

Offline Smithian

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I’ve posted at length my concerns about Gore. Dismissing him definitely as a bust is premature.
I'm really high on Abrams, really low on Gore. If the Nats medical team is comfortably, I understand being high on Gore. I'm worried about any unhealthy pitcher after our issues with Strasburg.

Offline Slateman

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I’ve posted at length my concerns about Gore. Dismissing him definitely as a bust is premature.
You're right. He'll be a great lefty reliever in five years. On another team.

Offline Slateman

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This deal is Maybin and Miller for Cabrera all over again

Offline imref

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I'm really high on Abrams, really low on Gore. If the Nats medical team is comfortably, I understand being high on Gore. I'm worried about any unhealthy pitcher after our issues with Strasburg.

and now we have the money freed up to extend Abrams. :couch:

Offline imref

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This sorta feels like had the Bulls decided to trade Michael Jordan in his prime or something. I can’t even think of something really comparable that has happened in sports. A 23-year old, elite superstar who’s already won numerous awards and a world championship traded because the owners won’t pay. The fact owners can do this and still have fans stick around is unbelievable to me. Not only stick around but pay exorbitant concession prices and actually pay for tickets and parking. We’re the real dummies in all of us. Cheering this kind of stuff on is insanity.

https://www.nhl.com/news/gretzky-trade-to-los-angeles-shocked-hockey-world/c-679887 a bit different in that Gretzky only had one year left on his contract and had informed Edmonton that he wasn't going to resign as he wanted to move to LA for his wife's acting career.  Edmonton got enough pieces to win another championship a few years later (though not in the original deal).

Offline Smithian

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  • Sunshine Squad 2022
Matt Weyrich
Quote
Pending the Soto/Bell trade, here are players in Nats’ organization to have appear on a top-100 prospect list the last 2 years:

C Keibert Ruiz
RHP Josiah Gray
RHP Cade Cavalli
SS Brady House
OF Elijah Green
SS C.J. Abrams
LHP MacKenzie Gore
OF Robert Hassell III
OF James Wood
Do I think the Nats got enough for Soto/Bell? No.

Do I think we have some fun pieces to follow? Yes.

If the new ownership group comes in and is ready spend, there is going to be a flexible payroll and a minors that will actually have some pieces. Not the worst situation if the new ownership group is a good one.


Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Gretzky to LA

I’m guessing this works out in similar fashion lol

Offline Slateman

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Now I have to root for the Cardinals

Offline imref

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I’m guessing this works out in similar fashion lol

Edmonton won a title in 1990 without Gretzky, they flipped what they got in the Gretzky trade for critical pieces of that 1990 championship team.

Offline stoneghost28

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My chief concern with this type of evaluation is that it doesn't take into account the depth problems. Our drafts have been such utter ---- for so long that despite hauling in a giant pile goodies from the Dodgers and the padres the past two years, I can't help but feel that the lack of "interesting" prospect depth beyond the big names can and should be considered a huge problem. Prospects will fail based on randomness (they're prospects and fail to make the leap), injuries, mental make up, general stalling out, and hell, whatever the hell happened to Robles and Kieboom, amongst other issues, having a ton of depth in the system so guys taken in the 10th or 20th round that nobody gave two thoughts to, suddenly become studs and/or become big league relevant. My big concern with the Nats is that w/the blowing up of the big league club, we now have the problem of a top heavy system that lacks that depth to fill in for prospect failures and whatever else we may need.

Hopefully we can address that in the offseason after firing everyone (please) and hiring some real talent to start offseason #2 of the rebuild.

Offline English Natsie

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  • It's baseball, Jim, but not as we know it...
I can’t even think of something really comparable that has happened in sports.

I, perhaps , have a different perspective - unexpected / expected mega-deals are 'par-for-the-course' in European soccer - for example, had Mbappe not been keen to stay in Paris, then PSG would have sold him to Real Madrid. Barcelona sold Neymar and Messi - it's just how it is... ;)

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Edmonton won a title in 1990 without Gretzky, they flipped what they got in the Gretzky trade for critical pieces of that 1990 championship team.

Well that’s a good thing. Sorry, not a big hockey fan just know many think Gretzky is the best athlete of all time.

Offline stoneghost28

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Talknats projects our top prospects:
1. Robert Hassell
2. Cade Cavalli
3. James Wood
4. Brady House
5. Cristhian Vaquero
6. Elijah Green
7. Jeremy De La Rosa
8. Cole Henry
9. Armando Cruz
10. Jarlin Susana
11. Andry Lara
12. Mitchell Parker
13. Matt Cronin
14. Jackson Rutledge
15. T.J. White

Why would Green be so low?

Offline Smithian

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/padres-push-in-all-their-chips-agree-to-deal-for-juan-soto-and-josh-bell/


This has Gore, Abrams, and Hassell combining for 7 WAR in 2025. Someone is going to exceed that, someone is going to fall below. But if in 2025, if the pieces from this trade are comfortably into positive WAR territory, I don't think this is going to be a historic disaster.

Offline Smithian

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Why would Green be so low?
Never swung a bat in a professional game.

Online Kevrock

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  • That’s gonna be a no from me, doge.
That’s not how you rank prospects.