Break up the Juggernaut: 2022 Trade Deadline thoughts, & rumors

[van lingle mungo]

Or a real analytics department

You keep slamming the analytics department. Curious to know your basis for that and specifically what makes it so lacking as compared to others.

[Smithian]

Your August 3rd starting lineup:

1. Lane Thomas (LF)
2. Luis Garcia (SS)
3. Kiebert Ruiz (C)
4. Riley Adams (DH)
5. Joey Meneses (1B)
6. Jake Noll (RF)
7. Ceasar Hernandez (2B)
8. Maikal Franco (3B) (though I suspect he's traded)
9. Victor Robles (CF)

 

[Kevrock]

You keep slamming the analytics department. Curious to know your basis for that and specifically what makes it so lacking as compared to others.

Read this and click the links that compare our FO staff to others: https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=40205.0

Even most defenders have caved at this point.

[UMDNats]

Our analytics department is like 10 guys total. The Yankees, Rays, Dodgers, etc. have 50+. Rizzo hired a very smart guy to run things but the absolute difference between having a token data team (which we have) and a real impactful one is the ability to communicate the information to the GM, the coaches and finally the players. We have collectively 0 buy-in from the leaders of the organization and from all indications, there is no buy-in, or ability to communicate it, in the coaching staff. The development staff is still out here trying to find Fabio instead of building MLB assets.

We have all the same spin rate data as Baltimore. The difference? Their staff is able to use the information to improve performance. We're too busy admiring the 2019 banner and making Juan Soto memes.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

But for the possibility of watering down the return to dump Corbin's contract, I've got some confidence in Rizzo's ability to deal.  I think it's been observed by writers that he has a reputation among GMs as not trying to win trades (that is, he doesn't make absurd demands or conceal things that makes him untrustworthy), so if the packages for Soto are anywhere near as good as the ones conjectured in the MLB.com article, I think he pulls the trigger.  I'm the stupid optimist, but that Yankee deal shifts the horizon from 2025-26 before we are respectable to 2024, maybe even 2023 with the right moves.  I thought the deals last year were fine given what we moved out.  It would have helped if Carrillo and Ramirez were healthy, but the rest of the return was terrific.  A backup catcher with enough pop to maybe 1B or DH in exchange for Hand, a 4th OF for Lester, a very good prospect catcher in Drew Millas for Josh Harrison, IIRC, a live useful arm for Hudson, and then of course Gray, Ruiz, Carrillo in the big deal.  HE did that with an expiring contract, so I think his only new pressure is to impress his new bosses. That should not lead to devaluing trades.

I will be curious if the Red Sox are sellers.  It is a real possibility.  If they are, then Eovaldi and JD, possibly Xander, are huge additions to the sellers side. 

[Slateman]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/astros-trade-rumors-josh-bell-nationals.html

Nationals first baseman Josh Bell is among the likeliest trade candidates on the market, and the Astros are among the teams interested in adding the slugger to their lineup, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets. The Mets are also said to have interest in Bell, who figures to appeal to just about any team in need of an offensive upgrade

Astros have a pretty meh farm system.

[GNatsNoMore]

But for the possibility of watering down the return to dump Corbin's contract, I've got some confidence in Rizzo's ability to deal.  I think it's been observed by writers that he has a reputation among GMs as not trying to win trades (that is, he doesn't make absurd demands or conceal things that makes him untrustworthy), so if the packages for Soto are anywhere near as good as the ones conjectured in the MLB.com article, I think he pulls the trigger.  I'm the stupid optimist, but that Yankee deal shifts the horizon from 2025-26 before we are respectable to 2024, maybe even 2023 with the right moves.  I thought the deals last year were fine given what we moved out.  It would have helped if Carrillo and Ramirez were healthy, but the rest of the return was terrific.  A backup catcher with enough pop to maybe 1B or DH in exchange for Hand, a 4th OF for Lester, a very good prospect catcher in Drew Millas for Josh Harrison, IIRC, a live useful arm for Hudson, and then of course Gray, Ruiz, Carrillo in the big deal.  HE did that with an expiring contract, so I think his only new pressure is to impress his new bosses. That should not lead to devaluing trades.

I will be curious if the Red Sox are sellers.  It is a real possibility.  If they are, then Eovaldi and JD, possibly Xander, are huge additions to the sellers side. 

Rizzo may be willing and able to pull the trigger on a reasonable deal for Soto for the Nats, and as much as I would hate to lose Soto, it's probably the prudent thing to do.  Unfortunately, as Barry Svrluga points out in the Post today, it might be impossible, or at least "really, really hard."  He notes that ownership might not be willing to approve a deal for a major star such as Soto.  He cites the example of Mark Lerner failing to approve a deal Rizzo worked out to trade Harper to the Astros because he "couldn't stomach sending a homegrown MVP elsewhere, even for half a season."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/07/22/juan-soto-washington-nationals-trade-options/

[UMDNats]

If the Lerners are out here blocking Soto trades they probably shouldn't be leaking that Soto turned down their contract offers and that he's on the block.

[Slateman]

If the Lerners are out here blocking Soto trades they probably shouldn't be leaking that Soto turned down their contract offers and that he's on the block.

Good way to give prospective buyers an idea if Soto's worth, whether hes extended or traded

[catocony]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/astros-trade-rumors-josh-bell-nationals.html

Astros have a pretty meh farm system.

Bell is a pretty meh first baseman.

[sixthree175]

Bell is a pretty meh first baseman.

The Mets are out -- they just traded for Vogelbach -- under team control for a while.
Is Bell a better first basemen than Adam Lind was?  I never understood what happened to Adam Lind after 2017, until recently when I realized that after a player qualifies for a full pension there is little or no monetary incentive to work cheap.
 

[Slateman]

Bell is a pretty meh first baseman.

He is the best bat available at the deadline, so no, not "meh"

[Slateman]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2022-replacement-level-killers-introduction-first-base/

Thats essentially the trade market for Bell

[Slateman]

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/new-york-mlb-trade-deadline-mets-sent-trade-offer-to-nationals-for-josh-bell

Not sure why the Mets would still be interested after trading for Vogelbach

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Bell is a lot better, and it sounds like a reliever is in the deal. Vogelbach may just have been a plan b they grabbed to not come away empty.

[Slateman]

Would assume Carl Edwards Jr

Matt Alan, Dominic Smith, and Thomas Szapucki for Josh Bell and Car Edward Jr

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Edwards even has another year of control. It could be Cishek, but Edwards is more trade value. Got to Finnegan could be in a deal, too

[DPMOmaha]

Is Cruz going to be tradeable?

[Smithian]

Is Cruz going to be tradeable?

I said "yes" yesterday but I didn't realize how terribly he has crated past month. Awful.

Nats really need Cruz to smash a couple homers this week. Trading him isn't even about a prospect return. It's about clearing up the money.

[Natsinpwc]

I said "yes" yesterday but I didn't realize how terribly he has crated past month. Awful.

Nats really need Cruz to smash a couple homers this week. Trading him isn't even about a prospect return. It's about clearing up the money.

Not sure what you mean about clearing up the money?  It’s a one year deal. Not like he is really blocking anyone.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Is Cruz going to be tradeable?

I'd think they'd have to cover the $3 million buy out for next year.  Then they could probably find a taker, but not for anything significant. I think there will not be much of a market. no boom in the boomstick.

[UMDNats]

If the Nats hold onto Finnegan, Rizzo should have his office cleaned out.

[Section214]

If the Nats hold onto Finnegan, Rizzo should have his office cleaned out.

Depends on what his market is like. He has years of control and has shown that he can be a piece in our bullpen, don't trade him just to trade him.

[UMDNats]

Depends on what his market is like. He has years of control and has shown that he can be a piece in our bullpen, don't trade him just to trade him.

Bullpen arms are the least predictable year to year and selling high is literally always the move. Why do we need a decent reliever on a 100 loss team? He also isn't particularly...good. Ship him to a contender for their #15 prospect.

He will, of course, blossom somewhere else, but even if he were to magically improve here it'd be a waste. He's not even young. Just move him and carry on. Anyone that isn't Gray or Ruiz can go.

[Section214]

Bullpen arms are the least predictable year to year and selling high is literally always the move. Why do we need a decent reliever on a 100 loss team? He also isn't particularly...good. Ship him to a contender for their #15 prospect.

He will, of course, blossom somewhere else, but even if he were to magically improve here it'd be a waste. He's not even young. Just move him and carry on. Anyone that isn't Gray or Ruiz can go.

Okay well if we're getting the #15 prospect from someone's system, we are saying the same thing, yes. For sure do that yeah.