Break up the Juggernaut: 2022 Trade Deadline thoughts, & rumors

[Elvir Ovcina]

Or even the Braves, another team from a mid-market city with large-market performance.

Atlanta's pretty much the same size as DC and Philly, and people drive to their games from way outside the MSA on a regular basis.  I'm not sure any of those can be straight-faced as anything other than large markets.  They're all way bigger than Boston or SF, for example.

[GburgNatsFan]

Atlanta's pretty much the same size as DC and Philly, and people drive to their games from way outside the MSA on a regular basis.

Yep. If DC performed as well as Atlanta, in terms of player development, I'd be pretty happy.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Yep. If DC performed as well as Atlanta, in terms of player development, I'd be pretty happy.

I would too.  Philly, not so much. 

[UMDNats]

Thats really what annoys me the most about the offseason office "shake up." I really wanted Rizzo to go into an organization like the Dodgers and grab someone to revamp our analytics and player development.

The scouting is excellent. Its what happens to the talent that I want to see improvement on.

Rizzo only hiring his BOYS from Arizona while the rest of the league gets smarter is like reason #1 for our downfall.

Guy's answer to the organization failing to develop anyone for 10 years was to promote his best buddy. I'm OUT on Rizzo long-term primarily because of this crap. There is 0 evidence Rizzo will change how he does things in any substantial way. It's big-time FA moves and hoping by sheer luck JDP finds another Soto who is Nats-proof. Until then it's all Diamondbacks buddies and dinosaurs making decisions.

Maybe the GODFATHER will buy the team and get us back on track. Really our only hope at this point because if Leonsis buys the team, Rizzo is GM for life.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What do we think the realistic get for Bell is going to be?  Are we thinking someone between the Ruiz/Grey level?  Less?

fwiw, the website "baseball trade values" has  a few scenarios posted. 
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/7668/

Oswaldo Cabrera from the NYY and Emerson Hancock from the Mariners are two one for ones that are posted.  You can play with the site and come up with your own.  They do not attach huge value to Bell.  For example, the site suggest fair value would be Wilkelman Gonzalez, a high minors pitcher that Slate had mentioned.

https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/2/25/22950456/red-sox-top-prospects-2022-wilkelman-gonzalez

[JCA-CrystalCity]

BTW - I'm skeptical about the trade values on the linked site.  I refuse to believe Arano has more value than Edwards, for example, or that Lane Thomas has a substantially higher value than Bell. 

[hotshot]

Nats are great at scouting. The problem has been development.

Hard to divorce the two, scouting and development. How can you develop what perhaps just isn't there, i.e., misjudged or overrated skills that scouts failed to evaluate correctly.

[Mattionals]

Hard to divorce the two, scouting and development. How can you develop what perhaps just isn't there, i.e., misjudged or overrated skills that scouts failed to evaluate correctly.

Actually happens more often than not. It's why you only see a handful of players graduate to the bigs and not every first round pick does it.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Hard to divorce the two, scouting and development. How can you develop what perhaps just isn't there, i.e., misjudged or overrated skills that scouts failed to evaluate correctly.

I think you point to Giolito and Treinen, maybe MAT, and say had talent but only flourished after they left.

[Natsinpwc]

I think you point to Giolito and Treinen, maybe MAT, and say had talent but only flourished after they left.

That’s really a stretch but on MAT. He still does not hit.  Lots of teams have relievers leave and flourish. Giolito was still a hot prospect when he left.  It’s not like he was on the MLB team for a long time and struggled. I think it’s at least jusy as much the drafting and even more than half IMHO.

[Natsinpwc]

Actually happens more often than not. It's why you only see a handful of players graduate to the bigs and not every first round pick does it.

So we just ignore Harper and Rendon and Strasburg and Soto and Turner? 

[Slateman]

That’s really a stretch but on MAT. He still does not hit.  Lots of teams have relievers leave and flourish. Giolito was still a hot prospect when he left.  It’s not like he was on the MLB team for a long time and struggled. I think it’s at least jusy as much the drafting and even more than half IMHO.

Lowest K rate of his career.

[Mattionals]

I think you point to Giolito and Treinen, maybe MAT, and say had talent but only flourished after they left.

Pivetta has been serviceable. Recently I think we as fans are seeing the particular failures of our high ranked prospects, notably Robles and Kieboom. If those guys produced the way they were toutes and didn't just fall off a cliff, then the Nats would likely be in a much better position. They still wouldn't be great, because Strasburg getting hurt and Corbin turning into a pitching machine are big reasons why things fell apart, but you would have stalwarts at 3B and CF and right now, you don't.

[Mattionals]

So we just ignore Harper and Rendon and Strasburg and Soto and Turner?

Harper, Rendon, and Strasburg we're pretty complete players before making the bigs. They were all "fast to the majors" with "advanced approaches". Turner was only in the Nats minor system for like half a season before he was called up. Turner was also a quick prospect when he was selected by the Padres.


I don't know if Soto actually came hatched from a baseball that was sired by Ted Williams, but honestly he seems like the type of guy that isn't really a product of good development. Maybe he is, but literally he is maybe the only exception to the Nats development turning out high quality players.

[Natsinpwc]

Pivetta has been serviceable. Recently I think we as fans are seeing the particular failures of our high ranked prospects, notably Robles and Kieboom. If those guys produced the way they were toutes and didn't just fall off a cliff, then the Nats would likely be in a much better position. They still wouldn't be great, because Strasburg getting hurt and Corbin turning into a pitching machine are big reasons why things fell apart, but you would have stalwarts at 3B and CF and right now, you don't.

I guess my point is how do you say it was development with Kieboom and Robles?  Maybe they are just not that good. The MLB draft is a crapshoot and so are international signings.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I guess my point is how do you say it was development with Kieboom and Robles?  Maybe they are just not that good. The MLB draft is a crapshoot and so are international signings.

Having seen them both in the low minors at young-for-level ages, it's development.  I see a lot of minor league games, and 95% of the dudes who look like that at their ages in high-A become at least above average major leaguers.  Robles at least got better on defense. 

To give you an example, one of the best players I saw in high-A last year was Michael Harris II.  Like Kieboom at that level, he looked like he had a couple things to work on at the plate to allow him to handle breaking stuff and hard stuff under his hands, but not much else.  Difference is, a year later that looks fixed and he's in CF in Atlanta.  That's development, even if absurdly fast.  Kieboom is no better on offense - same issues, same holes - and worse on defense.

Same thing happens with pitchers.  Fedde in high-A looks like Fedde in MLB.  Not so with dudes in other orgs.

[Natsinpwc]

Fair enough.

[Mattionals]

Having seen them both in the low minors at young-for-level ages, it's development.  I see a lot of minor league games, and 95% of the dudes who look like that at their ages in high-A become at least above average major leaguers.  Robles at least got better on defense. 

To give you an example, one of the best players I saw in high-A last year was Michael Harris II.  Like Kieboom at that level, he looked like he had a couple things to work on at the plate to allow him to handle breaking stuff and hard stuff under his hands, but not much else.  Difference is, a year later that looks fixed and he's in CF in Atlanta.  That's development, even if absurdly fast.  Kieboom is no better on offense - same issues, same holes - and worse on defense.

Same thing happens with pitchers.  Fedde in high-A looks like Fedde in MLB.  Not so with dudes in other orgs.

I sometimes log into threads just to see your take. I can't articulate your knowledge of baseball, and I didn't play like you did. Great stuff as always.

[UMDNats]

Having seen them both in the low minors at young-for-level ages, it's development.  I see a lot of minor league games, and 95% of the dudes who look like that at their ages in high-A become at least above average major leaguers.  Robles at least got better on defense. 

To give you an example, one of the best players I saw in high-A last year was Michael Harris II.  Like Kieboom at that level, he looked like he had a couple things to work on at the plate to allow him to handle breaking stuff and hard stuff under his hands, but not much else.  Difference is, a year later that looks fixed and he's in CF in Atlanta.  That's development, even if absurdly fast.  Kieboom is no better on offense - same issues, same holes - and worse on defense.

Same thing happens with pitchers.  Fedde in high-A looks like Fedde in MLB.  Not so with dudes in other orgs.

our minor league organization is light years behind our competitors. the NYY are playing an entire different sport than us in terms of player development.

[catocony]

As far as drafts go, I think Rizzo has been good, and have stated so for over a decade.  The big exception is Seth Romero, who definitely should not have been drafted that high due to his attitude and actions.  The fact that once signed he's been chronically injured is an added insult.  Jackson Rutledge may be a 1st round dud as well, but we'll see how the rest of this season and next year goes.  The same goes for Mason Denaburg.  Still, that's 3 straight years of 1st round picks who, being either a juvenile delinquent and/or chronic injures, that are not on the radar screen for this season or next.  Right when a 1st round pick should be established somewhere doing something. 

[UMDNats]

As far as drafts go, I think Rizzo has been good, and have stated so for over a decade.  The big exception is Seth Romero, who definitely should not have been drafted that high due to his attitude and actions.  The fact that once signed he's been chronically injured is an added insult.  Jackson Rutledge may be a 1st round dud as well, but we'll see how the rest of this season and next year goes.  The same goes for Mason Denaburg.  Still, that's 3 straight years of 1st round picks who, being either a juvenile delinquent and/or chronic injures, that are not on the radar screen for this season or next.  Right when a 1st round pick should be established somewhere doing something. 

We are dead last in drafted players WAR in MLB. He has been a complete failure at the draft, top to bottom. Not only does he usually whiff on his first round pick, but after the first round he basically just picks players blindly. Then they get into the system and somehow perform even worse than expected. I can't think of a recent draft pick who has actually out performed their draft spot.

For a guy worshipped by the fans and local media as a SCOUTING EXPERT he either is terrible at it or his team of scouts is the worst in the league.

[HalfSmokes]

We are dead last in drafted players WAR in MLB. He has been a complete failure at the draft, top to bottom. Not only does he usually whiff on his first round pick, but after the first round he basically just picks players blindly. Then they get into the system and somehow perform even worse than expected. I can't think of a recent draft pick who has actually out performed their draft spot.

For a guy worshipped by the fans and local media as a SCOUTING EXPERT he either is terrible at it or his team of scouts is the worst in the league.

That's not fair, if you spot him a number one overall pick with a consensus generational talent, he's awesome.

[UMDNats]

That's not fair, if you spot him a number one overall pick with a consensus generational talent, he's awesome.

Guys like Grant Paulsen worship Rizzo because he drafted Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, Storen and like, Jordan Zimmermann. That's basically the entire list, and 4 were top 10 picks!

[HalfSmokes]

Guys like Grant Paulsen worship Rizzo because he drafted Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, Storen and like, Jordan Zimmermann. That's basically the entire list, and 4 were top 10 picks!

His three great picks were two consensus first overalls and a guy who fell to 6th due to injury concerns who ended up staying healthy. Other than those three, it's been a decade plus of mediocrity

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Back on the topic of trade thoughts, perhaps we could get the MAriners interested in Cesar.  They're getting nothing out of Frazier, and Cesar looked pretty good last year in the AL.