Race to the Bottom: 2023 #1 Pick

[JCA-CrystalCity]

24 games left, need 11 wins for 60.  I did not think that was even a thought after the trade.  It's a tough schedule, though, so it has gone from unthinkable to unrealistic.

[imref]

3 game “lead”

[Natsinpwc]

Only important thing is that they stay clear of the fourth place team. Have a six game lead over the Pirates.

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

[Natsinpwc]

Maybe someone has printed these before but the odds for each pick as they could fall as low as 7th even with the worst record.  Almost a one in five chance of falling to 7th. I believe the NBA and NHL drafts now have better protection for teams. In other words they can’t fall as far.  MLB seems kind of clueless on almost everything.

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds

[Count Walewski]

Maybe someone has printed these before but the odds for each pick as they could fall as low as 7th even with the worst record.  Almost a one in five chance of falling to 7th. I believe the NBA and NHL drafts now have better protection for teams. In other words they can’t fall as far.  MLB seems kind of clueless on almost everything.

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds

It would suck if the Nationals worked this hard to have the worst record in the league and then got the lousy #7 pick. Only solace is that MLB picks are far less predictable than NBA picks. Many years the #1 pick in the NBA draft is a sure future superstar and the #3 pick is a lotto ticket. Here they're all lotto tickets.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Maybe someone has printed these before but the odds for each pick as they could fall as low as 7th even with the worst record.  Almost a one in five chance of falling to 7th. I believe the NBA and NHL drafts now have better protection for teams. In other words they can’t fall as far.  MLB seems kind of clueless on almost everything.

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds

while the odds are 4:1 that the team with the worst record won't pick 7th, if you were to bet on one pick position that the worst team will end up picking at, the best odds are 7th, followed by 1st, 2nd, 3rd . . . 6th.

[imref]

Dylan Crews has been the consensus #1 for a while now. .349 /.463 / .691 with 22 HRs in 249 PAs last year. He's heading into his 3rd year at LSU.

If the Nats went with pitching, Chase Dollander at Tennessee is the top guy.

[zimm_da_kid]

One annoying thing is that the top two hitters are a righty outfielder and a lefty shortstop.  The next two best hitters are two lefty high school outfielders

This is annoying as we are quickly getting A glut of high end outfield talent between green, wood, hassell, and vaquero.  Not to mention Lane or de la Rosa.  Also, most of our top studs are lefty’s so we need more righty prospects.  Abrams, Garcia, wood, hassell are all leftys

[imref]

you don't draft for need.

[Kevrock]

It's not annoying me because we'll probably be drafting 8th or something. This draft lottery is a sham.

Crews is getting the hype, rightfully so, but don't sleep on Jacob Gonzalez. .273/.405/.558 18 HRs in the SEC as a sophomore. Shortstop and could stick there. Average slipped from freshman year but HRs, walks, strike out rate all improved.

[Kevrock]

Oh but my favorite is probably Enrique Bradfield, Jr. .326/.433/.456 over two seasons with 93 stolen bases! 46 in 2022. And not just fast but a smart base stealer.

Premium D in CF.

All this in the SEC (Vandy)

Draft this guy and set him loose with those new pickoff rules.

[GNatsNoMore]

It's down to a 2 1/2 game "lead" after today's games.

[Elvir Ovcina]

One annoying thing is that the top two hitters are a righty outfielder and a lefty shortstop.  The next two best hitters are two lefty high school outfielders

This is annoying as we are quickly getting A glut of high end outfield talent between green, wood, hassell, and vaquero.  Not to mention Lane or de la Rosa.  Also, most of our top studs are lefty’s so we need more righty prospects.  Abrams, Garcia, wood, hassell are all leftys

Best player available, regardless of position or handedness.  Most of the Nats' top-ranked prospects are in A ball or lower.  Many of them will flop.  The others will be reaching the majors so long after Abrams and Garcia that how to solve any positional conflicts will be very clear.

Prospects flop.  That's why you try to get as many good ones as you can.  You don't pass up drafting Alex Bregman just because you already have Carlos Correa.

[Slateman]

Best player available, regardless of position or handedness.  Most of the Nats' top-ranked prospects are in A ball or lower.  Many of them will flop.  The others will be reaching the majors so long after Abrams and Garcia that how to solve any positional conflicts will be very clear.

Prospects flop.  That's why you try to get as many good ones as you can.  You don't pass up drafting Alex Bregman just because you already have Carlos Correa.

Yep. Prospects flop. There is easily a future where Wood sputters out and Green becomes BJ Upton. And if they dont, you can always trade them for what you need.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

I still think this draft lottery is absurd. The odds are hilariously bad. It’s like something a group of fantasy football buddies came up with.

[welch]

With ten games left and all of them against the Phillies, Braves, and Mets, Nats have a big chance to finish last in baseball. But with the lottery, they just need to finish among the worst three teams.

[DPMOmaha]

When does the lottery draw actually take place?

[zimm_da_kid]

When does the lottery draw actually take place?

At the winter meetings

[DPMOmaha]

At the winter meetings

Thx

[GNatsNoMore]

With ten games left and all of them against the Phillies, Braves, and Mets, Nats have a big chance to finish last in baseball. But with the lottery, they just need to finish among the worst three teams.

I know this thread is about the #1 pick, and finishing last no longer guarantees that, but wouldn't finishing last put us in a good position to perhaps pick up at least one or two potentially decent reserves (like Alex Call) through waiver claims or the Rule 5 draft during the offseason?  I thought someone mentioned this in another thread awhile back.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I know this thread is about the #1 pick, and finishing last no longer guarantees that, but wouldn't finishing last put us in a good position to perhaps pick up at least one or two potentially decent reserves (like Alex Call) through waiver claims or the Rule 5 draft during the offseason?  I thought someone mentioned this in another thread awhile back.

that's right.  That's a plus. 

[imref]

Draft lottery is December 6

[Kevrock]

Draft lottery is December 6

I expect we'll get screwed with our 16% chance at #1. By the time our rebuild is finished, after we finish last and draft 8th 3 years in a row, MLB will fix it so that struggling franchises have higher odds.

[Slateman]

I expect we'll get screwed with our 16% chance at #1. By the time our rebuild is finished, after we finish last and draft 8th 3 years in a row, MLB will fix it so that struggling franchises have higher odds.

Thats a lock. The real question is how much we get screwed

[Kevrock]

All of it. What's the floor for our pick? Like #12 or #16 since this is the dumbest lottery of all time?

BTW, this reinforces the need for advanced and consistent scouting and dev. Teams like the Orioles, Astros, Dodgers, etc.